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29-12-2013, 06:34   #1
M.T. Cranium
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Atlantic Storm Watch & Coastal Flooding Events: January 2014

With the old thread locked and the faux thread fauxed, it would seem that a new thread is required for general serious discussion of the various risks of another significant event.

On consensus of five leading models, the daily timetable looks something like this:

SUN 29th DEC -- peak wind gusts 110 km/hr, borderline level 1
MON 30th DEC -- peak wind gusts 100 km/hr, sub-alert
TUE 31st DEC -- peak wind gusts 110 km/hr, borderline level 1
WED 1st JAN --- threat largely shifts south, needs to be watched
THU 2nd JAN --- most likely a waiting day with increasing winds late
FRI 3rd JAN ---- a strong signal for the first of two possible level 2 events (a)
SAT 4, SUN 5 JAN --- could remain quite or very windy
MON 6 to TUE 7 JAN --- GFS develops major windstorm, level 2/3 ??? (b)

(a) This system would develop directly from a blizzard moving southeast through the Great Lakes region merging with a coastal low on Sunday night near Cape Cod, New England. It would then move to east of Newfoundland around NYE and cross the Atlantic, in a vigorous westerly jet stream ... so far no model develops this much beyond a rather low end level 2. With the tidal peak of 1 Jan, this one has storm surge potential despite that limited degree of development.

(b) This second apparent possible major storm develops from a very strong low progged to be off the New England coast on Sat 4 Jan and moving into the south Greenland Sea during Sunday 5th, then redeveloping a centre further south that arrives over northern offshore waters between late Sunday 5th and mid-day Tuesday 7th Jan. Some model depictions currently show a windstorm quite similar to the one just ended with what would appear to me to rise to the borderline level 2 and level 3.

The other theme that is likely to be of increasing interest is a gradual cooling trend that appears to be trying to push south from the far northern Atlantic around the time storm (b) is approaching, thus introducing the prospect of a kind of Greenland Express ending to that storm. Reality may of course become more complex and require a secondary to lead in the colder air.

I'll be interested to see what others have to say about all of these prospects.
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29-12-2013, 06:58   #2
rickdangerouss
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How many weeks of continuous storms?? Rhetorical question.

Looking good for a SSW, that could stop these storms.

Thank you for all the help MT.
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29-12-2013, 07:52   #3
M.T. Cranium
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I dunno, Rick, between Christmas and this weather, I feel like the stuffing has been knocked out of me by the non-stop onslaught of gales, meals and sparkly objects on the tree. I think we've had about two weeks now, it was placid and very mild to about the 12th or 13th IIRC then started to get more unsettled, we've had three fairly significant storms (one mostly just a pressure phenomenon of some note) and now I am looking at three or four more. May need to work alternate days at Odd Day MTC and get an Even Day forecaster so I can sleep regularly.
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29-12-2013, 09:37   #4
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STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Wexford, Cork, Kerry and Waterford

Southerly winds 55 to 65 km/h (strongest on exposed coasts), gusting 90 to 110 km/hr.

Issued:Sunday 29 December 2013 06:00Valid:Sunday 29 December 2013 13:00 to Monday 30 December 2013 05:00

STATUS YELLOW

Rainfall Warning for Munster, Carlow, Kildare, Kilkenny, Laois, Wexford, Wicklow and Offaly

Rain will become persistent and heavy at times especially this evening/early tonight with the risk of spot flooding. Totals of 25 to 35m

Issued:Sunday 29 December 2013 06:00Valid:Sunday 29 December 2013 13:00 to Monday 30 December 2013 06:00
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29-12-2013, 12:11   #5
 
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Oh lovely..(I don't think!)is my opinion of this storm train.
It's going to delay proper winter Untill it stops and if systems keep barrelling out of NA into the jet stream towards us,probably delay it until March or April again at this rate making it a nuisance rather than exciting.

Have spoken to esb crews locally and was told nationwide lines were just patched up to get power back where there was tree damage and these are fragile enough still to cause more rural black outs with not too much wind.
They are hoping for periods of fine weather to do permanent repairs.
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29-12-2013, 12:47   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by whitebriar View Post
Oh lovely..(I don't think!)is my opinion of this storm train.
It's going to delay proper winter Untill it stops and if systems keep barrelling out of NA into the jet stream towards us,probably delay it until March or April again at this rate making it a nuisance rather than exciting.

Have spoken to esb crews locally and was told nationwide lines were just patched up to get power back where there was tree damage and these are fragile enough still to cause more rural black outs with not too much wind.
They are hoping for periods of fine weather to do permanent repairs.
I totally agree, i know it is not very scientific but i feel the longer this unsettled period goes on the later our winter will be. Can see it stretching into May like last year.
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29-12-2013, 12:49   #7
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Keep an eye on that secondary low at around 42 hours. Nothing to be concerned about as of now. But could yet prove troublesome.

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29-12-2013, 12:52   #8
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Beginning to sound gusty now in Salthill, Galway & judging by the radar rain not far off either.......
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29-12-2013, 13:26   #9
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It looks like Clare could avoid the worst of it
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29-12-2013, 13:59   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by branie View Post
It looks like Clare could avoid the worst of it
You are continuously on here with your troll like comments about Clare avoiding stormy winds etc. Back your analysis up.. what makes you think or even know that these potential future storms will somehow miss an entire county on the western seaboard?
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29-12-2013, 14:08   #11
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looking like " so far " that the up coming lows aren't going to be too severe. but it will be interesting to watch them as they approach to see if they intensify and turn into something more potent, every possibility that one might, given the highly unstable atlantic flow were having.
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29-12-2013, 14:25   #12
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met eireann have updated there warnings downgrading there wind speed from gusts of 90- 110kph to only 80kph .... seems the rainfall amount will be the issue with this system.

STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Munster, Leinster, Connacht, Donegal, Monaghan and Cavan


Southerly winds 45 to 65 km/h, gusting 80 km/h, strongest on exposed coasts
Issued:
Sunday 29 December 2013 12:00
Valid:
Sunday 29 December 2013 12:00 to Monday 30 December 2013
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29-12-2013, 14:42   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by snowstorm2013 View Post
You are continuously on here with your troll like comments about Clare avoiding stormy winds etc. Back your analysis up.. what makes you think or even know that these potential future storms will somehow miss an entire county on the western seaboard?
I spoke to Clare,she's on holiday in Tenerife


BBC forecast last night mirrored what's been forecast here,basically one low after another.
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29-12-2013, 15:19   #14
maquiladora
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Quote:
Originally Posted by howlinwolf View Post
met eireann have updated there warnings downgrading there wind speed from gusts of 90- 110kph to only 80kph .... seems the rainfall amount will be the issue with this system.

STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Munster, Leinster, Connacht, Donegal, Monaghan and Cavan


Southerly winds 45 to 65 km/h, gusting 80 km/h, strongest on exposed coasts
Issued:
Sunday 29 December 2013 12:00
Valid:
Sunday 29 December 2013 12:00 to Monday 30 December 2013
Yeah that little low is tracking a bit further south, so just windy for the southeast coast for a while, nothing significant at all really apart from the spot flooding risk due to rain.

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29-12-2013, 15:49   #15
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Not my area of knowledge but there's an interesting analysis here of the potential for sting jets between the SE of Ireland and Wales in the next few hours.




From http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtv2.php
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