Atlantic Storm Watch & Coastal Flooding Events: January 2014

ninebeanrows

Looking pretty severe for parts of the south & west at 30hrs.



18z GFS places a swathe of high winds well inland across much of Ireland.

maquiladora

High tide will be just over 6m early Friday morning in Galway. Combine that with low pressure and big swells and you can see the risk of coastal flooding. Hopefully the timing will be staggered a bit so it doesn't all happen at once.

ninebeanrows

maquiladora wrote: »

High tide will be just over 6m early Friday morning in Galway. Combine that with low pressure and big swells and you can see the risk of coastal flooding. Hopefully the timing will be staggered a bit so it doesn't all happen at once.

Yup couple that with the 70 knot gusts and it won't be pleasant.

maquiladora

18Z HIRLAM shows storm force winds along the coast from Mizen Head to Belmullet.



18Z GFS showing potential for gusts of up to 42.5 m/s on the coast.

kerrywez

Can some one please let me know what the record low pressure is again, I have forgotten. Just that the centre of this fellow will be about 950 and it looks like it will come over the SW? Should just add here that I was referring to the GFS for Friday 04:00 chart, needed to clear that up as the chart above seems to be in complete contrast as to the whereabouts of the centre of the low.

Regards Wez

maquiladora

kerrywez wrote: »

Can some one please let me know what the record low pressure is again, I have forgotten. Just that the centre of this fellow will be about 950 and it looks like it will come over the SW? Should just add here that I was referring to the GFS for Friday 04:00 chart, needed to clear that up as the chart above seems to be in complete contrast as to the whereabouts of the centre of the low.

Regards Wez

January record is 936.6, so that isn't going to be beaten no matter what happens! The models show a 950-945 low staying offshore.

Spring Onion

maquiladora wrote: »

High tide will be just over 6m early Friday morning in Galway.

Do you mean 5m? I do see a very high tide of 5.5m at 6am.

ninebeanrows

Quite a distinct push south from the majority of the 18z Ensembles tonight with a bigger chance of a widespread storm.

The morning runs will be very interesting.

maquiladora

Spring Onion wrote: »

Do you mean 5m? I do see a very high tide of 5.5m at 6am.

I just took it from the Marine Institute website. It shows highest tide Friday morning at 6.182m at 6:06am.

http://www.marine.ie/home/services/operational/oceanography/TidePredictions.htm

Spring Onion

maquiladora wrote: »

I just took it from the Marine Institute website. It shows highest tide Friday morning at 6.182m at 6:06am.

http://www.marine.ie/home/services/operational/oceanography/TidePredictions.htm

Interesting, I always use this site but Galway port is more specific than Galway I suppose.

http://tides.mobilegeographics.com/calendar/month/2085.html

maquiladora

Weathercheck wrote: »

Quite a distinct push south from the majority of the 18z Ensembles tonight with a bigger chance of a widespread storm.

The morning runs will be very interesting.

Still an outside chance of a second storm around the 6th too.

M.T. Cranium

Welcome back, we have until sundown to prepare for another very severe windstorm event, roughly similar to the last one (26-27 Dec) and about the same timing, but slightly different dynamics. This one won't have quite as strong an occluded front racing out ahead, which may mean that Waterford and Wexford will not get quite as windy this time. On the other hand, this one misses the northwest by a slightly larger margin and so there probably won't be as prolonged an "eye" feature or mid-storm drop-off in wind speeds.

Expect this to ramp up quickly after 9 p.m. and peak around 0400-0700h with gusts to 140 km/hr in exposed locations on west and south(west) coast. Otherwise closer to 110 km/hr further inland. This storm may not be as prolonged as the previous one. Storm surge potential, on the other hand, will be considerably higher coming only 42h after new moon and 36h after lunar perigee.

The second major low to exit from North America is now showing some signs of peaking in mid-ocean and then heading more north than east, slowly weakening. It will probably spread very strong winds as far east as Ireland (gusts to 110 or 120 km/hr) but at this point there is no real sign of a severe wind storm event with it. However, it does reach 930 mb mid-ocean and any change in track would be of concern again.

maquiladora

WV image from 6am.



49ft swell approaching from the southwest at midnight.

maquiladora

Warnings are out.

STATUS ORANGE

Wind Warning for Connacht, Donegal, Clare, Cork, Kerry and Limerick

Becoming stormy this evening and tonight and continuing for a time tomorrow with South to Southwest winds mean speed 65 to 90 km/hr with gusts 110 to 130 km/hr. Heavy rain, high tides and high seas also, with local flooding, especially in coastal areas.

Issued:
Thursday 02 January 2014 09:00
Valid:
Thursday 02 January 2014 17:00 to Friday 03 January 2014 14:00


STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Leinster, Cavan, Monaghan, Tipperary and Waterford

Becoming extremely windy or stormy this evening and tonight and continuing for a time tomorrow with South to Southwest winds mean speed 55 to 80 km/hr with gusts 90 to 110 km/hr. Risk of coastal flooding.

Issued:
Thursday 02 January 2014 09:00
Valid:
Thursday 02 January 2014 17:00 to Friday 03 January 2014 14:00

ninebeanrows

Latest NAE:

maquiladora

OPW High Tide Advisory

High Tide Advisory

The OPW wish to remind you of the High Tide Advisory Notice that issued on 23rd December 2013 and that Astronomical tides during this period are expected to be highest between Wednesday 1st January until Sunday 5th January 2014.

Furthermore, Peak surges on the 2nd and 3rd January are currently predicted to be very high

http://alerts.kerrycoco.ie/drupal/node/96

prunudo

I know the warning isn't as bad for Wicklow as last week but the similarity with the weather here today as before last Thursdays storm is uncanny, nice winters morning and not a cloud in the sky.

howlinwolf

On the road late tonight so im hopin its not too bad im only travelling through Kildare/ carlow so should be ok

kerrywez

Sunshine and cloud here in Kerry, with just a gentle breeze this morning and it is the same as a week ago here also.

Regards Wez

DominoDub

The river Liffey is still looking high on the Liberty Hall Webcam, lucky we had no wind or heavy rain overnight.

http://www.siptu.ie/media/webcam/

Villain

West is going to get another battering

outsourced_ire

CORK CITY TIDAL FLOOD ALERT ...

A tidal surge & strong south to south easterly winds are predicted over the next number of days. These factors combined will increase the tide levels over the natural tide levels.

During this period, prior to and after these tides, there is a danger of Tidal Flooding in the City.

It is possible that flooding may occur in the low lying areas of the City Centre including in particular South Terrace, Trinity Bridge, Rutland Street, Cotter Street, Stable Lane, Union Quay, Morrisons Quay, Proby’s Quay, Frenchs Quay, Crosses Green, Sharman Crawford St, Wandesford Quay, Lavitts Quay, Kyrls Street & Kyrls Quay, Coal Quay and Lapps Quay

Other Areas at potential risk are South Mall, Oliver Plunkett Street, Pembroke St., Princes Street, Marlborough Street, Cook Street, Winthrop Street, Kennedy Quay, Centre Park Road, Monahan’s Road, Georges Quay, and the low lying areas of the City Centre.

Householders and businesses should take Precautionary Measures to protect property.

http://www.corkcity.ie/news/mainbody,64851,en.html

average_runner

DominoDub wrote: »

The river Liffey is still looking high on the Liberty Hall Webcam, lucky we had no wind or heavy rain overnight.

http://www.siptu.ie/media/webcam/

Its high but seen higher. Is it expected to still rise more?

DominoDub

This is a pic of the Liffey at Halfpenny Bridge at High Tide today ..taken from Twitter @fxgeek

kerrywez

Unless the magnetic field of the earth has changed, the winds will be out of the SW and not E or SE and was stated in that warning for Cork, you only have to look at the Attachment Villain posted, which clearly shows the wind from the SW.

Regards Wez

Villain

Should this not be a level 2 threat level here now?

ninebeanrows

Still some uncertainty about where this low will track exactly and also some uncertainty about the small disturbance following behind.

Still uncertainty whether this will be a more widespread windstorm or something more benign.

Here is an example of a more widespread windstorm from the GEFS 6z suite, a number similar to this.

howlinwolf

its looking quite small in mass but its winding up nicely

ninebeanrows

Any chance of a level 2 in the thread title? This will not be that much less severe than the Stephen's Night storm.

cyclops999

STATUS ORANGE

Wind Warning for Connacht, Donegal, Clare, Cork, Kerry and Limerick

Becoming stormy this evening and tonight and continuing for a time tomorrow with South to Southwest winds mean speed 65 to 90 km/hr with gusts 110 to 130 km/hr. Heavy rain, high tides and high seas also, with local flooding, especially in coastal areas.

Issued:
Thursday 02 January 2014 09:00

Valid:
Thursday 02 January 2014 17:00 to Friday 03 January 2014 14:00




STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Leinster, Cavan, Monaghan, Tipperary and Waterford

Becoming extremely windy or stormy this evening and tonight and continuing for a time tomorrow with South to Southwest winds mean speed 55 to 80 km/hr with gusts 90 to 110 km/hr. Risk of coastal flooding.

Issued:
Thursday 02 January 2014 09:00

Valid:
Thursday 02 January 2014 17:00 to Friday 03 January 2014 14:00