Atlantic Storm Watch & Coastal Flooding Events: January 2014

M.T. Cranium

With the old thread locked and the faux thread fauxed, it would seem that a new thread is required for general serious :eek: discussion of the various risks of another significant event.

On consensus of five leading models, the daily timetable looks something like this:

SUN 29th DEC -- peak wind gusts 110 km/hr, borderline level 1
MON 30th DEC -- peak wind gusts 100 km/hr, sub-alert
TUE 31st DEC -- peak wind gusts 110 km/hr, borderline level 1
WED 1st JAN --- threat largely shifts south, needs to be watched
THU 2nd JAN --- most likely a waiting day with increasing winds late
FRI 3rd JAN ---- a strong signal for the first of two possible level 2 events (a)
SAT 4, SUN 5 JAN --- could remain quite or very windy
MON 6 to TUE 7 JAN --- GFS develops major windstorm, level 2/3 ??? (b)

(a) This system would develop directly from a blizzard moving southeast through the Great Lakes region merging with a coastal low on Sunday night near Cape Cod, New England. It would then move to east of Newfoundland around NYE and cross the Atlantic, in a vigorous westerly jet stream ... so far no model develops this much beyond a rather low end level 2. With the tidal peak of 1 Jan, this one has storm surge potential despite that limited degree of development.

(b) This second apparent possible major storm develops from a very strong low progged to be off the New England coast on Sat 4 Jan and moving into the south Greenland Sea during Sunday 5th, then redeveloping a centre further south that arrives over northern offshore waters between late Sunday 5th and mid-day Tuesday 7th Jan. Some model depictions currently show a windstorm quite similar to the one just ended with what would appear to me to rise to the borderline level 2 and level 3.

The other theme that is likely to be of increasing interest is a gradual cooling trend that appears to be trying to push south from the far northern Atlantic around the time storm (b) is approaching, thus introducing the prospect of a kind of Greenland Express ending to that storm. Reality may of course become more complex and require a secondary to lead in the colder air.

I'll be interested to see what others have to say about all of these prospects.

rickdangerouss

How many weeks of continuous storms?? Rhetorical question.

Looking good for a SSW, that could stop these storms.

Thank you for all the help MT.

M.T. Cranium

I dunno, Rick, between Christmas and this weather, I feel like the stuffing has been knocked out of me by the non-stop onslaught of gales, meals and sparkly objects on the tree. I think we've had about two weeks now, it was placid and very mild to about the 12th or 13th IIRC then started to get more unsettled, we've had three fairly significant storms (one mostly just a pressure phenomenon of some note) and now I am looking at three or four more. May need to work alternate days at Odd Day MTC and get an Even Day forecaster so I can sleep regularly.

maquiladora

STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Wexford, Cork, Kerry and Waterford

Southerly winds 55 to 65 km/h (strongest on exposed coasts), gusting 90 to 110 km/hr.

Issued:Sunday 29 December 2013 06:00Valid:Sunday 29 December 2013 13:00 to Monday 30 December 2013 05:00

STATUS YELLOW

Rainfall Warning for Munster, Carlow, Kildare, Kilkenny, Laois, Wexford, Wicklow and Offaly

Rain will become persistent and heavy at times especially this evening/early tonight with the risk of spot flooding. Totals of 25 to 35m

Issued:Sunday 29 December 2013 06:00Valid:Sunday 29 December 2013 13:00 to Monday 30 December 2013 06:00

whitebriar

Oh lovely..(I don't think!)is my opinion of this storm train.
It's going to delay proper winter Untill it stops and if systems keep barrelling out of NA into the jet stream towards us,probably delay it until March or April again at this rate making it a nuisance rather than exciting.

Have spoken to esb crews locally and was told nationwide lines were just patched up to get power back where there was tree damage and these are fragile enough still to cause more rural black outs with not too much wind.
They are hoping for periods of fine weather to do permanent repairs.

ninebeanrows

whitebriar wrote: »

Oh lovely..(I don't think!)is my opinion of this storm train.
It's going to delay proper winter Untill it stops and if systems keep barrelling out of NA into the jet stream towards us,probably delay it until March or April again at this rate making it a nuisance rather than exciting.

Have spoken to esb crews locally and was told nationwide lines were just patched up to get power back where there was tree damage and these are fragile enough still to cause more rural black outs with not too much wind.
They are hoping for periods of fine weather to do permanent repairs.

I totally agree, i know it is not very scientific but i feel the longer this unsettled period goes on the later our winter will be. Can see it stretching into May like last year.

ninebeanrows

Keep an eye on that secondary low at around 42 hours. Nothing to be concerned about as of now. But could yet prove troublesome.

Miss Stormyseas

Beginning to sound gusty now in Salthill, Galway & judging by the radar rain not far off either.......

branie

It looks like Clare could avoid the worst of it

snowstorm2013

branie wrote: »

It looks like Clare could avoid the worst of it

You are continuously on here with your troll like comments about Clare avoiding stormy winds etc. Back your analysis up.. what makes you think or even know that these potential future storms will somehow miss an entire county on the western seaboard?

howlinwolf

looking like " so far " that the up coming lows aren't going to be too severe. but it will be interesting to watch them as they approach to see if they intensify and turn into something more potent, every possibility that one might, given the highly unstable atlantic flow were having.

howlinwolf

met eireann have updated there warnings downgrading there wind speed from gusts of 90- 110kph to only 80kph .... seems the rainfall amount will be the issue with this system.

STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Munster, Leinster, Connacht, Donegal, Monaghan and Cavan

Southerly winds 45 to 65 km/h, gusting 80 km/h, strongest on exposed coasts
Issued:
Sunday 29 December 2013 12:00
Valid:
Sunday 29 December 2013 12:00 to Monday 30 December 2013

Cantona's Collars

snowstorm2013 wrote: »

You are continuously on here with your troll like comments about Clare avoiding stormy winds etc. Back your analysis up.. what makes you think or even know that these potential future storms will somehow miss an entire county on the western seaboard?

I spoke to Clare,she's on holiday in Tenerife:pac:


BBC forecast last night mirrored what's been forecast here,basically one low after another.

maquiladora

howlinwolf wrote: »

met eireann have updated there warnings downgrading there wind speed from gusts of 90- 110kph to only 80kph .... seems the rainfall amount will be the issue with this system.

STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Munster, Leinster, Connacht, Donegal, Monaghan and Cavan

Southerly winds 45 to 65 km/h, gusting 80 km/h, strongest on exposed coasts
Issued:
Sunday 29 December 2013 12:00
Valid:
Sunday 29 December 2013 12:00 to Monday 30 December 2013

Yeah that little low is tracking a bit further south, so just windy for the southeast coast for a while, nothing significant at all really apart from the spot flooding risk due to rain.

greysides

Not my area of knowledge but there's an interesting analysis here of the potential for sting jets between the SE of Ireland and Wales in the next few hours.

From http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtv2.php

Frigga_92

Bit of a horrible day here today. Pitch black outside already. Windy and lashing rain for the past 3 hours. Getting cold now too. It's been such a mild Winter so far but the last few mornings there's been big patches of ice in our yard (result of rainwater running down from the fields).

funnights74

Icy start here in Cork, swiftly followed by a rapid thaw and rain quickly followed. Not as windy as the stephens night storm but non stop rain so spot flooding will certainly follow. Reports of trees down and a few minor accidents and with the week to remain unsettled we're not out of the woods yet.

electrobanana

my power has been going on and off for the last couple of hours here near Limerick and its not even that windy and i only got it back on yesterday after been without since St Stephen's night. im dreading another windy night as i suspect the esb only did a quick fix in my area.

branie

It's fine where I am

greysides

Quite windy here (4 miles south of Gorey, Wexford, and 400' up) at the moment, not much rain yet.

Inquitus

Starting to blow a bit in NCD.

whitebriar

greysides wrote: »

Quite windy here (4 miles south of Gorey, Wexford, and 400' up) at the moment, not much rain yet.

Ah now have you been out at all It's been quite wet since 5pm and that's a fair bit of rain,I'm just 10 miles north of you.
Wind is noisy like a windy night,nothing serious.Gusting 38mph at the moment up here by the coast.

Rock Lesnar

Its alot more windier here in north east meath then it was stephens's night and wetter.

ninebeanrows

18z NAE develops this little low overnight a bit more.

Could be some strong enough winds , more especially in the Irish sea, but interesting to check the Obs later.



Some strong enough winds for some southern coasts and then perhaps some very strong westerly winds for the east coast as it clears late morning.

maryfred

Quite windy in south tipp(Clonmel) now.a lot more sustained rainfall as well.Stephens night more gusty wind,but is more constant wind and rainfall at the moment.these threads have been fantastic over the past few days.from a complete "thick" as regards weather maps,thanks to those who are posting with information.

ninebeanrows

EURO4 developing a very cheeky looking feature, only out to 12hrs at the moment though.

But some parts of UK could get a fair smack from this yet. & the south and east possibly here too.

ninebeanrows

If this were to materialise would be quite nasty.

Rock Lesnar

Rock Lesnar wrote: »

Its alot more windier here in north east meath then it was stephens's night and wetter.

Definitely alot more windier, a large branch just fell from the tree at the front of the house, dont know how it missed the palin and road but it did.

brianville

Hey all, am I loosing it or does tonight seem a tad worse than the last few nights. Im outside bandon , wsw winds seem to be quite strong and persistent along with constant rain for the past few hours

imitation

Im in an exposed spot in south cork too, its not too far off the other night at all

maquiladora

Could be a nasty one for Blackpool-Liverpool area. EURO4 showing it winding up to 65mph on the coast. Always have to be wary of those little lows that deepen quickly like that.

sunbabe08

eh northside of cork city. it's grand, no where near as bad as last week

Rock Lesnar

Wind has died considerably here in the last 30mins but the rain is fairly heavy and persistent.

MidMan25

It's wild here in East Cork!

Some very strong gusts.

Blackdragon

Cork city center taking a hammering.....not as bad as Stephens day.....but close enough

Sir Arthur Daley

After calming down now thankfully, rain stopped too.

Merkin

Absolutely horrific in West Wales, strong winds all evening and night accompanied by torrential rain. Supposed to be getting ferry home from Fishguard at lunchtime, looks very unlikely given tonight's ferry crossing was cancelled, gutted

maquiladora

06Z GFS throwing out more deep lows for early 2014.

Irish Steve

before everyone goes into meltdown over that chart, the isobars on it are at 1 hectopascal intervals, most of what we see are 4 Hpa, so there's 4 lines on this for every line we'd normally be used to seeing

That said, the centre pressure is very low, and if that track works out, it WILL be a wild period for pretty much all of the country, with a brief period of calm in the far north as the centre passes over. it will also be a daytime storm, so the potential for disruption and injury will be higher, people will be on the move for a normal working day, deferring or delaying travel will not be the option that it was over Christmas.

It will be one to watch, that's for sure.

Iancar29

Irish Steve wrote: »

before everyone goes into meltdown over that chart, the isobars on it are at 1 hectopascal intervals, most of what we see are 4 Hpa, so there's 4 lines on this for every line we'd normally be used to seeing

That said, the centre pressure is very low, and if that track works out, it WILL be a wild period for pretty much all of the country, with a brief period of calm in the far north as the centre passes over. it will also be a daytime storm, so the potential for disruption and injury will be higher, people will be on the move for a normal working day, deferring or delaying travel will not be the option that it was over Christmas.

It will be one to watch, that's for sure.

Yep if that chart where to verify ( HIGHLY UNLIKELY at this range we all should know ) it would warrant another level 3 alert.

dacogawa

None of the models agree about next Sunday/Monday. I'm putting the 3 charts here & going to come back next weekend & see which is closest & that's the one I'm going to trust the most for the rest of the winter for FI

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013123006/gfs-0-150.png?6

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013123000/ECM1-144.GIF?30-12

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013123000/UW144-21.GIF?30-06

dopolahpec

I'm doing some snow dancing. The storm gods have had their day. They can go packing south, let the polar air-mass flood over us.

DOCARCH

All clear and sunny now but next front/trough visible now over the Atlantic http://www.sat24.com/ bringing tonight/tomorrow mornings weather to us.

bnt

Not sure how much I can trust a GFS model for 168h (7 days) ahead. IIRC it was pretty good at predicting the big storm we had last week, a week ahead.

BigMoose

Merkin wrote: »

Absolutely horrific in West Wales, strong winds all evening and night accompanied by torrential rain. Supposed to be getting ferry home from Fishguard at lunchtime, looks very unlikely given tonight's ferry crossing was cancelled, gutted

Assume you made it fine, as I'm sitting on it now I was surprised last night to see they'd cancelled some crossings as over in Hampshire it was calm. This ferry is rocking up and down a fair bit, but it's like crossing a pond compared to last monday!

maquiladora

bnt wrote: »

Not sure how much I can trust a GFS model for 168h (7 days) ahead. IIRC it was pretty good at predicting the big storm we had last week, a week ahead.

I wouldn't trust it at all, but it's an example of the kind of stuff coming up on the models. It's unlikely it will come off like that, but another variation of it might since we are now in a pattern with low pressure systems passing close to or over Ireland.

H2UMrsRobinson

Hope it's not too bad, tis my babygirls 18th birthday on the 6th and we have had blizzards, ice, torrential rain amongst others in the past, to the point where we have considered moving it to the summer! :P

maquiladora

12Z UKMO shows some windy weather during Thursday-Friday with this low crossing us from the southwest.




12Z GFS for the same time doesn't look as clean, has a more complex large area of low pressure in the Atlantic with several centers spinning around.



Then later on the 6th, 12Z GFS is similar to the 06Z showing a large around of low pressure, though this time it has matured earlier and it's not as stormy over Ireland. 150+ hours away so not much point looking at it in detail yet anyway.



12Z UKMO showing something similar.

M.T. Cranium

Uh oh.

DOCARCH

A note at the end of the latest ME forecast...

N. B. Given the highly changeable and often wet conditions that are likely to prevail across Ireland for the coming week, and the fact that all lands are either saturated or waterlogged, the probability of river flooding will increase in many areas. In addition, the turn of the year will bring maximal high tides which, in combination with strong onshore winds, high seas and possible surge effects, will predispose many coastal districts to maritime inundation.

maquiladora

12Z GEM also showing that low on the 5th/6th.