Boards.ie uses cookies. By continuing to browse this site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Click here to find out more x
Thread Closed  
 
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
25-12-2013, 14:27   #1
Iancar29
Registered User
 
Iancar29's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 4,999
Severe Wind Storm late 26th-27th December

Just starting a fresh thread for this storm as i think its best to have a new one going .

So things should once again start getting quite windy from evening time tomorow .

Storm with a rough central pressure of 950 mbs looks to bring a tighter set of isobars over the country .


This has the potential to bring stronger winds than yesterdays storm .
With the west and south west getting the worst of the winds.

90mph gusts are a possibility at exposed locations in the SW and W.




With ground already saturated in places , a minor flood risk is now possible also.


As the winds shift towards the east of the country by morning some 70mph gusts are possible , 85mph @ 850hp could be dangerous if any of them filter down to the surface too.

Thunderstorms are also likely in the west and and midlands , and id imagine with the VERY strong shearing in both mid and low levels that there'll be a funnel / tornado threat also . ( THIS IS NORMAL FOR THESE KIND OF STORMS )

Will be back on this evening to see the 12z runs and also hi res models.

ENJOY THE TURKEY!
Attached Images
File Type: png Screen shot 2013-12-25 at 14.17.32.png (327.6 KB, 12130 views)
File Type: png Screen shot 2013-12-25 at 14.17.21.png (438.3 KB, 12225 views)
File Type: png Screen shot 2013-12-25 at 14.25.23.png (177.4 KB, 11889 views)
File Type: png Screen shot 2013-12-25 at 14.26.41.png (430.7 KB, 12353 views)
Iancar29 is offline  
Advertisement
25-12-2013, 14:44   #2
maquiladora
Registered User
 
maquiladora's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 11,121
Thought this would be fun to point out.

On the 15th anniversary. Almost to the hour, almost identical positions.


maquiladora is offline  
25-12-2013, 15:27   #3
Sleety_Rain
Registered User
 
Sleety_Rain's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 10,861
Sustained gales getting well inland

Strong winds could hang around for a while too.

Widespread gusts to 70mph, isolated 80mph even inland (in squalls etc.). Upto 90mph in exposed coastal western locations.




Sleety_Rain is offline  
25-12-2013, 15:36   #4
Sleety_Rain
Registered User
 
Sleety_Rain's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 10,861
Don't like the look of the GME

Sleety_Rain is offline  
25-12-2013, 15:40   #5
JanuarySnowstor
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 1,854
To the beady eyed the 12z gfs is slightly less intense but not much in it.
These models fluctuate quite a lot over 24hours, small tweaks between runs can accumulate to quite a difference in a 24hour period.
All we know is it will be stormy, damaging gusts - jury still out until the morning
JanuarySnowstor is offline  
(3) thanks from:
Advertisement
25-12-2013, 15:48   #6
maquiladora
Registered User
 
maquiladora's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 11,121
About a 5-10 mph downgrade in gusts overall on the 12Z GFS.
maquiladora is offline  
25-12-2013, 15:51   #7
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 1,083
Bring it on !!
Spring Onion is offline  
25-12-2013, 15:53   #8
davidsr20
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 696
Quote:
Originally Posted by maquiladora View Post
About a 5-10 mph downgrade in gusts overall on the 12Z GFS.
Here we go again lol that lovely downgrade word!
davidsr20 is offline  
25-12-2013, 15:59   #9
maquiladora
Registered User
 
maquiladora's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 11,121
UKMO looks a tad stronger than the GFS at 36 hours.
maquiladora is offline  
Advertisement
25-12-2013, 16:25   #10
Sleety_Rain
Registered User
 
Sleety_Rain's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 10,861
Severe enough from the UKM

Sleety_Rain is offline  
Thanks from:
25-12-2013, 16:27   #11
Sleety_Rain
Registered User
 
Sleety_Rain's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 10,861
Quote:
Originally Posted by davidsr20 View Post
Here we go again lol that lovely downgrade word!
No, this storm IS going to hit and is going to be quite severe and quite widespread.

Maybe not exceptional but expect wind damage and power outages in places.

70mph gusts will be quite widespread with 80-90mph gusts possible in exposed coasts.
Sleety_Rain is offline  
25-12-2013, 16:30   #12
JanuarySnowstor
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 1,854
Yes would agree with that WC, stormy looks a cert what's not sure is whether it'll be an exceptional event.
The South and West look to get the worst of it, storm surge for Cork anyone!!
JanuarySnowstor is offline  
25-12-2013, 16:58   #13
maquiladora
Registered User
 
maquiladora's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 11,121
Agree thats its unlikely it will downgrade (or upgrade) significantly. Models are is fine agreement on track and relative intensity, and this is a much more straightforward type of setup for them to model compared to the somewhat failed previous 'storm', which was more complex.

I wouldn't rule out some slight downgrades though, as that pretty much always happens to some extent for as long as I've been looking at the models.

This will likely be impacting some areas further south than those that usually see 120-130 km/h gusts, so we could see more tree damage and power outages etc. than we see in the more "hardened" northwest.
maquiladora is offline  
25-12-2013, 17:17   #14
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 3,538
Looking like a fairly standard winter storm at the moment, the main difference as you say being that it'll affect the south more so than usual. Anywhere along the west coast should be able to withstand 130kph gusts comfortably enough though power outages and minor damage are almost inevitable, especially if the strong winds make it further inland.

The storm looks like it'll peak Friday morning so slightly more sociable hours than usual for anyone looking to experience it's full force

Last edited by Harps; 25-12-2013 at 17:23.
Harps is offline  
(3) thanks from:
25-12-2013, 17:26   #15
snowstorm2013
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 58
If this storm fails to materialise then I fear a future distrust of forecasts on this board. Many people believe that the storm the other night was over hyped. The last thing needed is another damp squib in short succession
snowstorm2013 is offline  
(2) thanks from:
Thread Closed

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search