St. Stephens day 2013

TheMilkyPirate · 22-12-2013 9:54pm #1

Not much racing between now and the 26th so thought I'd get a thread going on my favourite day of racing/drinking/gambling/smoking/riding of the year.

Big ones the King george and I'm all over Cue card like a rash. Put to bed the doubts about his staying ability in the betfair and I can't see anything within two lengths of him.

Fancy MTOY for the christmas hurdle, Have my doubts over TNO and hopefully MTOY can bring up a tasty double and pay for the day.

ste2010 · 22-12-2013 10:15pm

I really fancy alferof for the king George. This is the trip for alferof its a long time coming but I firmly believe we will see the best of him on the 26th over 3m. Cue Card won't get to dictate this time around and despite what the clerk of the course said I can imagine the ground won't be great. I firmly believe its quite possible we are witnessing the best batch of horses in a number of years over fences 3 who came from the same supreme.
Al ferof, sprinter sacre, cue card..I can only imagine how good spirit son would have been given how he destroyed cue card at aintree..dynaste will be in the pickings given how well he took to the track last year. It'll be interesting to see how Cue Card fairs but I have a feeling it wasn't his mistakes that beat him at kempton last year.
Another I'm looking forward to over 3m during the Xmas period is morning assembly. I don't think his win at punchestown last year was any fluke and I'm hoping he's the real deal

Not to mention about al ferof..nicholls had this race in mind since last year..ruby also mentioned a fancy for him today

jimjamcos · 22-12-2013 10:30pm

Outside of King George, the Racing Post Novice Chase has to be the race of the day. Will be an absolutely intriguing tactical battle if Mullins two line up and Defy Logic gets his soft ground.

ART OF LOGISTICS

CHAMPAGNE FEVER

DEFY LOGIC

FELIX YONGER

TED VEALE

TRIFOLIUM

mr.jingle · 22-12-2013 10:35pm

Serious amount of rain today around Leopardstown, snow in the Dublin mountains too. The mud will be flying id say unless it dries up

SRFC · 22-12-2013 10:41pm

Surely a few meetings will be hit with the bad weather,Some amount of racing good luck to those who compile for the firms,bit harder than watching all the BF markets as they usually do when theres 3 or 4 meetings on :pac:

Will the decs be in on tuesday does anyone know? I'll be looking for bets around the likes of limerick while everyones eyes are fixed on leopardstown and kempton.

UrbanSea · 22-12-2013 10:43pm

Yeah I'm pretty sure a lot of the races are priced up Tuesday could be wrong though

ste2010 · 22-12-2013 10:47pm

SRFC wrote: »

Surely a few meetings will be hit with the bad weather,Some amount of racing good luck to those who compile for the firms,bit harder than watching all the BF markets as they usually do when theres 3 or 4 meetings on :pac:

Will the decs be in on tuesday does anyone know? I'll be looking for bets around the likes of limerick while everyones eyes are fixed on leopardstown and kempton.

Just the 12 jump meetings ! Unbelievable if you were ever going to nail a large accumulator Stephens day is it.

mr.jingle · 22-12-2013 10:49pm

I think there should be a competition to find the no.1 st Stephens day tipster! Must be 1 pick in each of the 82!!! Yes 82 races and the winner gets a trip to venetia williams stable. C'mon Droidy :-)

How many winners could you get?

SRFC · 22-12-2013 10:53pm

ste2010 wrote: »

Just the 12 jump meetings ! Unbelievable if you were ever going to nail a large accumulator Stephens day is it.

Yeah no doubt there will be ricks made by the bookies,theres just too much on for them to be keeping an eye on all the markets,im sure a lot of the risk management is done by automatic computer but still theres more chance of ricks and plots cleaning them out with 12 meetings on.

Wouldnt surprise me in the slightest if CF got beaten this week and still won at cheltenham,hes not bulletproof in Ireland as proved last year.

ste2010 · 22-12-2013 11:07pm

SRFC wrote: »

Yeah no doubt there will be ricks made by the bookies,theres just too much on for them to be keeping an eye on all the markets,im sure a lot of the risk management is done by automatic computer but still theres more chance of ricks and plots cleaning them out with 12 meetings on.

Wouldnt surprise me in the slightest if CF got beaten this week and still won at cheltenham,hes not bulletproof in Ireland as proved last year.

Wouldn't be surprised at all he was beaten by Thomas Edison at leopardstown the same year he won the champ bumper. His jumping is sensational though, looks bullet proof

SRFC · 22-12-2013 11:10pm

ste2010 wrote: »

Wouldn't be surprised at all he was beaten by Thomas Edison at leopardstown the same year he won the champ bumper. His jumping is sensational though, looks bullet proof

Yeah done my bolx on him :pac: theres a lad I know well of solicitor more money than sense,had 10 grand on him that day wasnt off a yard I didnt think,makes all in the champion bumper 23/1 on bf :pac:

I hope to fck faugheen doesnt take up his engagement over 3m at Limerick ive too much invested on him in the neptune :mad:

Hulk Hands · 22-12-2013 11:14pm

I expect to see at least 9/2 Dynaste on Thursday morning and think he could be a cracking bet at that, possibly e/w depending on who lines up and the ground. His novice campaign was excellent with the only blemish being his second in the Jewson, having been questionably kept off the track for 3 months prior, and around a track i'm not sure suits at all. It's rare for horses to perform to a similar level around such differing tracks as Kempton and Cheltenham, and judging by Dynaste's win in last years Feltham, it's very much the former that will play to his strengths. His time that day was a few seconds quicker than Long Runs KG win, completed on the bridle while carrying 3lb less. Granted that'll have to be stepped on on hugely, but it was a fair performance for a novice and visually very impressive. His run last time out shows that he's very at home in this company, and can be expected to step up on that performance with the benefit of a run.

Cue Card is a huge player and is a very likely winner with a reproduction of his betfair run. Without going into obvious detail - the ground, unlikely to be allowed dictate from the front and his performance in last years race are the reasons why I believe a performance of that magnitude is unlikely. In any case, I think Dynaste's improvement from his season opener and likely love of the C&D means he can make up the 8l difference last time out, especially on soft ground. I'm happy to pass him over at 10/3 or shorter.

Of the rest, I'd very much respect Al Ferof and his obvious credentials. However, I have a suspicion he's not quite top class over fences and looks plenty short enough at 4s (and likely to shorten). Silvianco Conti was behind Dynaste and CC the last day, and I see no reason why he'll be able to beat both now. As admirable as LR and Capt Chris are, this looks a top class KG and i'll be very disappointed if theyre good enough to win, although they could easily place. The fly in the ointment could well be Mount Benbaulben who looks to have a serious engiene and needs to go right handed. I may well have a faller insurance win only saver on him on the day.

jimjamcos · 22-12-2013 11:16pm

I think Felix Yonger is a bet against Champagne Fever. Most impressive novice chaser I've seen so far, on what he's done.

Francie Barrett · 22-12-2013 11:54pm

Very Stylish in the 2:30 at Huntingdon is one that I have been watching for awhile now.

rossom · 23-12-2013 12:36am

Off to Leopardstown and will go through the card so will pop up my thoughts on Christmas Day.

Will need to go a long way to match last years result though!

Gringo180 · 23-12-2013 10:23am

Im no fan of Silviniaco Conti but he's very appealing for the king george at 6/1. Wasnt beat that far by Cue Card and Dynaste lto out and that was his first run of the season so I would expect him to come on a lot for that outing. Looks the value in the race.

Bluetonic · 23-12-2013 12:08pm

jimjamcos wrote: »

I think Felix Yonger is a bet against Champagne Fever. Most impressive novice chaser I've seen so far, on what he's done.

Absolutely no way they'll go up against each other.

jimjamcos · 23-12-2013 12:09pm

Captain Chris misses King George

jimjamcos · 23-12-2013 12:10pm

Bluetonic wrote: »

Absolutely no way they'll go up against each other.

That's what I thought but he's said so in his RP column..

jimjamcos · 23-12-2013 12:19pm

Bluetonic wrote: »

Absolutely no way they'll go up against each other.

Haha just seen declarations are out. Explains the confidence of your prediction!

Its a shame

SRFC · 23-12-2013 12:45pm

Devastated Clondaw Court is running against rags forcast 2/9 :mad: Was planning on lumping a serious bet on him if something made the market for him in his maiden,4 winners I'd say for mullins on stephens day in leopardstown.

NaiveMelodies · 23-12-2013 12:57pm

SRFC wrote: »

Devastated Clondaw Court is running against rags forcast 2/9 :mad: Was planning on lumping a serious bet on him if something made the market for him in his maiden,4 winners I'd say for mullins on stephens day in leopardstown.

5.. Margaret Mullins and Cairdin are going to win the H'cap chase!

SRFC · 23-12-2013 1:00pm

only1stevo wrote: »

5.. Margaret Mullins and Cairdin are going to win the H'cap chase!

Has felix younger delcared in Limerick thats another steering job,Ive my accum picked out already aniliffet,CF,Clondaw Court,Felix Younger and Moonshine Lad at Limerick,that is as nailed on as they come :pac: will also back the ricci horse in the bumper it will be about 2/1 hopefully

Quick look through the english cards all dirt as to be expected,evan williams two horses milo milan and minella friend should win in sedgefield,will go through the cards later in detail.

convert · 23-12-2013 1:03pm

Here's the link re Captain Chris: http://www.irishracing.com/news?prid=73716&headline=Captain-Chris-out-of-King-George-

UrbanSea · 23-12-2013 1:40pm

That is an absolutely awful looking Feltham

jimjamcos · 23-12-2013 1:48pm

UrbanSea wrote: »

That is an absolutely awful looking Feltham

Woeful. Don Cossack running would have made it half interesting.

Motivator · 23-12-2013 2:12pm

only1stevo wrote: »

5.. Margaret Mullins and Cairdin are going to win the H'cap chase!

One of the most frustrating horses around! Loads of ability but doesn't seem to fancy it half the time. Won a decent little hurdle race in Leopardstown last Christmas after being second in the same race the year before. Was perfect on his chase debut last time & I think Margaret Mullins will have him set up for that race.

SRFC · 23-12-2013 2:25pm

jimjamcos wrote: »

That's what I thought but he's said so in his RP column..

These columns are an absolute waste of time not worth the paper their written on,conning punters 48 hours later after going to print mullins changes his tune an sends Felix to Limerick,Ive no doubt some punters backed FY at 2/1 after reading his column and low an behold they do their dough without a run for their money,I wish they would scrap all these columns and sponserships with racing people they wouldnt lie straight in bed ffs,an if anyone thinks willie mullins sits down and types that column out your're on a different plante clearly a hack gives him a 2 minute phone call and ghost writes it.

jimjamcos · 23-12-2013 3:00pm

SRFC wrote: »

These columns are an absolute waste of time not worth the paper their written on,conning punters 48 hours later after going to print mullins changes his tune an sends Felix to Limerick,Ive no doubt some punters backed FY at 2/1 after reading his column and low an behold they do their dough without a run for their money,I wish they would scrap all these columns and sponserships with racing people they wouldnt lie straight in bed ffs,an if anyone thinks willie mullins sits down and types that column out your're on a different plante clearly a hack gives him a 2 minute phone call and ghost writes it.

Obviously it's in Mullins (and Ruby's) best interests to keep the horses apart and any punter should wait until declarations to play, knowing that. If I was the Wylie's though, I'd have been keen to push Mullins to run him at Leopardstown over a nothing race in Limerick. At least then they'd know where they stand with the horse going forward.

NaiveMelodies · 23-12-2013 4:17pm

Motivator wrote: »

One of the most frustrating horses around! Loads of ability but doesn't seem to fancy it half the time. Won a decent little hurdle race in Leopardstown last Christmas after being second in the same race the year before. Was perfect on his chase debut last time & I think Margaret Mullins will have him set up for that race.

Yeah fancy him to do a job. forecasted price of 11/1, I doubt he'll be that big but if he is, it'll be my big bet of the day.

Motivator · 23-12-2013 4:26pm

only1stevo wrote: »

Yeah fancy him to do a job. forecasted price of 11/1, I doubt he'll be that big but if he is, it'll be my big bet of the day.

I had a huge bet on him in Galway last year, He jumped like a pig & Danny Mullins brought him so wide coming into the straight that he nearly ended up in the stand. He finished 2nd I think & I was lucky I backed him last year at Leopardstown. I was full of drink & was just after backing a winner on the all weather. Spotted him at 14/1 & had a stupid ew bet. He pissed in & my faith in the horse was once again restored!! He's one of my bankers for this week.

St. Stephens day 2013

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