St. Stephens day 2013

abarkie

Anyone on Salisfy?

130 Down Royal

ste2010

abarkie wrote: »

Anyone on Salisfy?

130 Down Royal

I'd steer clear. I read somewhere that he needs his first run each season

barney4001

im sticking with Down Royal this time mullaghanoe river,tammys hill,colour france
shemshal,gallant oscar,wes hardin,one of those lucky 50p bets

Oscars Well.

abarkie wrote: »

Anyone on Salisfy?

130 Down Royal

Would fancy Tammy's Hill if any more rain comes

BorneTobyWilde

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eBa2Mm-nP50

BorneTobyWilde

Long run for me
Conditions might level playing field
EW

jimjamcos

Have backed Defy Logic each way with Stan James @ 6/1. Beaten under 3l by the best novice chaser seen this season IMO, I think he'll improve for softer ground and left handed track. Obviously Champagne Fever could be a bit special but is not immune to throwing in the odd stinker.


Also backed Mount Benbulben each way @ 16/1 in big one. Lots of question marks with regards to his jumping and facing his strongest ever field, he's going to have to produce a career best. He's getting his required conditions though and this race has been the target as far back as Punchestown. If he puts it together, he's no 16/1 shot.

Hulk Hands

I agree on Defy Logic. That was a serious battle with Felix Yonger and it could be very smart form. I think 11/2 is huge. Cf's been beaten on a few occasions in Ireland. Might stick to a saver on Mt Benbaulben but would only go faller insurance. Wouldn't be mad to take the 4/1 about him placing from e/w bets. I'd say he's as likely to run a stinker even if he gets around as run well

sting60

In the bumper at Leopardstown I previously put up Lean Araig from Oliver McKiernans yard and he ran a blinder from the front then eased when chance had gone.This is a hot contest but this lad is very talented and I expect him to run a big race at huge odds.Down Royal 2pm Quickasyoucan for Colin McBratney he ran a pleasing race last time out and step up in trip is a major plus for this locally trained horse.In the King George there a few that could be fancied like Dynaste who ran a blinder last time and Al Ferof who really seems to be getting better with every run but the prices are very skinny so I will be having a few bob on Menorah 20/1.He has to run the race of his life to win but he will be a fresh horse and that seems to suit him and his stable is in great form.Will be laying Cue Card for a right few Euro.I fancy Grumeti 20/1 to run a huge race against the two hotpots.He ran very well last time out when he clearly blew up coming home and he should be spot on today.I have taken him at massive odds to win the champion hurdle as well.

jimjamcos

Hulk Hands wrote: »

I agree on Defy Logic. That was a serious battle with Felix Yonger and it could be very smart form. I think 11/2 is huge. Cf's been beaten on a few occasions in Ireland. Might stick to a saver on Mt Benbaulben but would only go faller insurance. Wouldn't be mad to take the 4/1 about him placing from e/w bets. I'd say he's as likely to run a stinker even if he gets around as run well

They beat the 3rd 18l that day. Very smart form. Faller insurance is the smart play with MB alright.

Clonsuttonlad

Your a brave man laying Cue Card for big money Sting, would you not just back Analifet instead. Not saying Cue Card is a certainty but he has the best form in the race. You could be cleaned for a .33 return.

Also I've seen a lot of knowledgeable people on this forum and elsewhere tip up Long Run. I don't see him placing tbh but I respect their opinion and will be interesting to see how he gets on.

Al Ferof is way underpriced. He has beaten nothing of significance over fenced and this is also his first try at the trip.

Silviniaco Conti is a danger on form, he is also Pricewise selection. However Nicholls avoided KG last year with him and said Kempton not his track.Conti was also beaten at this track last year.

That leaves it between Cue Card and Dynaste. I should really let my head rule my heart and back Dynaste. Dynaste has better C/d form and his performance in Feltham was extremely good. We know he goes in tomorrow's conditions.
However let my heart rule the last day and made a packet on Cue

SRFC

Man With Ivan in the 2pm Down Royal,I dunno how the jockey wasnt brought in for its first effort in Navan,never put in the race go close if its off today.

rossom

I'm off to Leopardstown tomorrow so decided to go through the card. Won't be backing some of these but thought I'd throw it up anyways.

12.20 Leopardstown

The Thorntons Recycling Maiden Hurdle kicks off the Leopardstown Festival and it will be very big surprise if Clondaw Court doesn't get the week off to a flyer for Champion trainer Willie Mullins at what is sure to be a very short price. Unbeaten in 2 career starts to date, Clondaw Court comes here with a very lofty reputation and, despite returning from a 404 day absence, it's very hard to envisage a shock on the cards for this potentially very exciting recruit to the Novice Hurdling division. Clondaw Court ran out a supremely impressive 15L winner on his sole start in a Point 2 Point for Colin Bowe at Largy in April 2012 and although the form of that contest isn't very strong, he created a long lasting visual impression. Having been picked up for £130,000 by Rich Ricci and sent to Willie Mullins, it was not surprise that he started very short for his Bumper debut at Punchestown last Novemeber and his reputation was certainly enhanced as he sauntered to a 27L victory without breaking sweat. On the back of that performance, Clondaw Court was installed as favourite for Cheltenham's Champion Bumper and although he missed that contest through injury he still remains a horse with tremendous potential. Likely to have been intensively schooled for his hurdling debut, Clondaw Court shouldn't have any fitness worries given the yard he hails from and it does look significant that they are pitching him in to a traditionally tough Maiden for his first start over timber (although it looks a below par renewal this year). Looking at the opposition, Mouse Morris' Dromnea certainly sets the standard of those who have hurdling experience and although his form is fairly decent he was comfortably put in his place by another Willie Mullins horse on his last start and I'd personally be very surprised if he caused an upset. The one I think could follow Clondaw Court home is Dessie Hughes' Little Rocky who was a smart handicapper on the flat and who shaped a lot better than his finishing position on hurdling debut suggests after more than a year off the track and my only bet in the race will probably be a straight forecast. At likely odds of 1/5, I cannot advise anyone to back Clondaw Court as punting horses this short on hurdling debut is an easy way to go broke but if jumping around he should record a routine success and keep his unbeaten record intact.

12.50 Leopardstown

This looks an incredibly difficult contest to solve with a lot of interesting angles into the race and there are 5 or 6 horses who look to have real chances of landing this contest and thus I'll likely be backing two against the field if they're each way prices. Willie Mullins saddles likely favourite Daneking who ran a fine hurdling debut behind subsequent scorer The Game Changer at Cork last month and with that experience under his belt he's sure to run a big race. Wrath Of Titans's two career defeats have come at the hands of the extremely exciting Moyle Park (who I will be backing weekly for the Supreme Novice Hurdle until March) and although it may seem strange to not back him given how highly I rate the latter he was well put in his place by Moyle Park over hurdles and was in receipt of 15lb when the pair met at the Punchestown Festival earlier this year. I couldn't put anyone off backing him as he has done very little wrong to date but I think he may find one too good at what is likely to be a fairly short price. Dermot Weld saddles the absolutely fascinating Stuccodor who brings a high level of flat form to this contest. It will be very interesting to see how he goes in the market on his switch to hurdles but he's one I won't be backing today Aidan O'Brien saddles the only filly in this contest in the shape of Beach Of Falesa and this talented horse on the flat should improve for her recent 4th on hurdling debut but again may find this too tough.

The two I like and will be backing if a decent price are The Winkler and Chancol. Starting with the former, The Winkler showed a lot of improvement from his debut behind Moyle Park at Punchestown to win his next two starts in Bumpers and the form of his win at Galway under a penalty looks pretty decent. He made his debut over hurdles in a very hot Novice contest over 2m4f at Navan earlier this month when shaping nicely behind the very exciting Faugheen and Empire Of Dirt and with the 4th home Gold Patrol franking the form by scoring in a handicap hurdle subsequently it looks like it will be a very decent effort. Sure to improve for that experience, I think The Winkler will probably be quite overpriced given he hails from the pretty unfashionable Eoin Doyle stable and, if an each way price, I certainly think he is worth a small bet. The other horse I will be backing is Chancol who represents last years winning connections and he is a horse who seems quite highly thought of by trainer Noel Meade. Chancol was very well supported ahead of his debut when sent off 4/1 favourite for a valuable Sales Race at Fairyhouse back in April and although he could only finish 6th that day he ran a bit green and it was still a fine effort. With that initial experience under his belt, Chancol was a much improved horse when scoring at the 2nd time of asking at Navan earlier this month in what I think will turn out to be a very decent bumper. Under Nina Carberry, Chancol made his way through the field travelling well before taking up the running 1f out. Although he didn't quicken clear like it looked he would, he battled to a well deserved success and he certainly impressed me that day. The runner up Lord Scoundrel came into that contest having bumped into subsequent Grade 2 Bumper scorer Black Caviar on debut and I think in time the race will work out quite well. After the contest, trainer Noel Meade stated Chancol would prefer soft ground (which he gets here today) and that he has schooled very well and although it will be a tough task to take this on his hurdling debut I'd fancy him to run a big race for an in form yard. Although I couldn't put anyone off backing the other horses I have mentioned above, my money will be on The Winkler and Chancol (slight preference for the latter) and I'll be having a small Reverse Forecast in case I have (hopefully) got what looks a very tricky contest spot on.

1.20 Leopardstown

The second of Willie Mullins likely 3 odds on favourites runs here in the shape of Analifet and this current Triumph Hurdle favourite should prove incredibly tough to beat here. Having been picked up by Gigginstown and sent to Mullins after winning her sole start over hurdles in France, Analifet started a warm order 1/3 shot on her Irish debut as she ran out a very easy winner from her re-opposing stablemate Noble Inn by 9L at Punchestown in November. It was very interesting after the race that Willie Mullins, who normally keeps his cards very close to his chest, stated he wouldn't be afraid to send her anywhere and it very much seems that this 3 year old filly is held in very high regard by the yard. After that routine success, she was just as impressive stepped into Grade 3 company on her 3rd and final start when she once again beat stablemate Noble Inn easily and she looks to have a very bright future ahead of her. Currently best priced 1/3, Analifet is unfortunately again not a betting prospect in my eyes but she looks like she could prove incredibly difficult to beat. Guitar Pete should prove popular with each way punters and he brings a good level of form to this contest but I personally can't see him beating Analifet and thus don't see the point in backing him each way. Of the others, Arzembouy Premier is a fascinating contender on his Irish debut having joined Gordon Elliott after scoring very easily on his hurdling debut in France and it is interesting that the shrewd Elliott pitches him in to Grade 2 Company on his first start for the yard and it will be very interesting to see if he is supported in the market. Although it is impossible to quantify Arzembouy Premier's form in relation to this contest, 14/1 looks a decent enough price for a small each way bet if you're desperate to back something other than the favourite in the in the race and although he'll have to be very smart to beat Analifet he's certainly the enigma in the field. That being said, it will surely come as a massive surprise to all if Analifet is beaten here and at very cramped odds she is far too short for me to advise backing.

1.50 Leopardstown

Essentially a low grade handicap, I expect Sea Light to be very strong in the market for the very shrewd Charles Byrnes given that Davy Russell is on board instead of riding for his retained owner in Gigginstown Stud and for all that he could still be ahead of the handicapper he seems a much better horse on good ground. I've actually got a decent enough fancy in handicap debutant Dun Scaith who should hopefully be a fairly big price for trainer Tom Hogan. From a family that trainer Tom Hogan knows well, (trains two of his half brothers) Dun Scaith has been progressing well since making his debut back in July and I'm hoping his mark of 107 underestimates him on his first start in a handicap. Having not shown much in his first 4 starts (3 Bumpers, once over hurdles) as a result of being quite green, Dun Scaith seems to be finding his feet and he has put in greatly improved performances on his last 4 starts. After shaping with much more promise when beaten 17L in 7th at Listowel back in September, Dun Scaith put in an excellent performance when running a 10L beaten 4th at Tipperary over 2 miles back in August in a race that looks very decent form. Tracking the leader throughout the contest, Dun Scaith travelled well for the majority of the contest and heading into the home turn he was just about in front. Jumping the second last in a line of three with the eventual 1st and 2nd, Dun Scaith dropped back to 3rd between the final 2 flights and when his chance was gone jockey Kevin Sexton was fairly easy on him as he came home a highly encouraging 4th. The easy winner Arctic Fire subsequently ran an excellent 3rd (given a bad ride) in the Grade 1 Bar One Racing Novices Hurdle and although the runner up Enchanted Forest ran poorly both starts since he came into the contest having run two very good races off marks of 122 and that was definitely a good level of form for the contest. Additionally, the 3rd home Diyala has gone on to win a strong looking Novice Hurdle whilst the well beaten 5th Black Zero has run very well in handicaps off marks of 104 & 105 subsequently and that performance definitely looks like a mark of 107 for Dun Scaith is potentially lenient.

Two starts ago Dun Scaith was sent of 7/4f for a Maiden Hurdle at Thurles over 2m6f last month and although no match for the comfortable winner Gold Patrol that again looks like some very decent form. Still showing a few signs of greenness, Dun Scaith attempted to make all for today's jockey Andrew McNamara but he found one too strong in the shape of Gold Patrol who overhauled Dun Scaith to record a pretty comfortable success. Gold Patrol has subsequently boosted that form by running a fine 4th behind the excellent Faugheen before winning comfortably on handicap debut off a mark of 113 and Dun Scaith actually lost very little to Colin Bowe's progressive performer. Dun Scaith's final start came at Clonmel last month where he finished a 20L beaten 5th and again that has turned out to be very decent race. Having taken up the running before the 3rd flight, Dun Scaith was 1L clear of the field at the 6th hurdle where he showed definite signs of quirkiness as he ran off the bend and fell back to 4th and,having been caught out by an injection of pace by superior rivals, Bryan Cooper took it very handy with Dun Scaith as he was allowed to come home a remote 5th. Again, that looks a very strong race with the winner The Job Is Right scoring impressively in a Grade 3 contest on his only subsequent start whilst the 3rd home Gort An Chnoic also won on his next start. Additionally, the 4th home Wicklow Gold (was given an impossible task in this contest) won a Maiden Hurdle very easily by 27L on his only outing since whilst the 6th home Leavethelighton (rated 117) was only beaten 3/4L in a good Novice Hurdle earlier this week. Once again, that Maiden Hurdle seems well above average and although Dun Scaith ended up being well beaten I think it was another very good run from a horse who looks to be improving with racing.

Judged on his 4 most recent starts, I think Dun Scaith looks to be on a pretty decent opening mark of 107 and I'll definitely be having a nice each way bet on him if he is available at his forecast 16/1 price. Dropped back to 2m2f today, I'm hoping that Andrew McNamara tries to make all on this 5 year old son of Vinnie Row and if given an easy time of things out in front he will hopefully take some catching. Given that his half brother Flycorn has run some cracking races in defeat in Graded races, on breeding Dun Scaith certainly has the potential to defy his opening handicap mark and I think Tom Hogan's gelding is improving with every start. Although competitive in nature, I think a lot of the runners look weighted to their best and I ruled out a lot of them out from a win perspective so it does seem a lot easier than it looks on paper. Although not the most obvious horse when looking at the bare figures of his form, after delving a little bit deeper I think his last 3 runs were all excellent efforts and facing a considerably easier task on his first start in a handicap I'm pretty confident of a bold showing from Dun Scaith and hopefully he can land this fairly mediocre contest at a lovely price.

2.20 Leopardstown

I'm keeping this short and sweet but it looks certain that Mags Mullins has plotted up Cairdin for this contest and I'm confident that this 7 year old can win at the Leopardstown Christmas Festival for the 2nd year running. A comprehensive winner over hurdles off a 1lb higher mark of 124 in testing conditions last year, that confirmed Cairdin's affinity for the Leopardstown track as he was beaten just a neck in a hurdle race at the Christmas Festival in 2011 and it seems very clear to me that this meeting is his primary target every year. Running in a handicap chase here today, Cairdin comes here on the back of a fine 2nd to the very talented Trifolium (easy winner; runs in the Grade 1 at 2.50) and with the well beaten 3rd home Kate's Benefit franking that form strongly when finishing 2nd in a Grade 3 Chase subsequently it looks like Cairdin comes into this contest in top form. Relatively unexposed as a chaser, it remains to be seen if he is as good over the larger obstacles as he is over hurdles but his last run would certainly seem to suggest he is and I'd be pretty surprised if he wasn't better than his current mark of 123. Jockey Brian Hayes takes off a very valuable 5lb to get Cairdin down to a lovely racing weight of 10-2 on his first start for the yard and given that he rides Leopardstown particularly well I'm definitely encouraged by his booking. Although Paddy Power seem wise to the plot by installing Cairdin the 9/2 market leader, I think he'll drift and it would be great if 6/1 was available before the race. Of the others, I've always liked King Vuvezela (is getting well backed) and his trainer Paul Nolan seems to target this race as his last 4 runners in this contest have finished 2-2-2-1 and he certainly looks a potential threat. At a big price I can see last years 3rd On The Way Out 20/1 running a decent race off a 1lb lower mark with Conor Walsh's additional 7lb claim allowing John Kiely's 10 year old to race off a featherweight but I'm confident that Cairdin can come out on top in this contest and win at this Festival for the second year running.

2.50 Leopardstown

This should prove a great acid test for Champagne Fever as he steps into Grade 1 company on his 2nd start over fence and although I think he's going to take a lot of beating he looks way too short to back at 4/11. A winner at the past 2 Cheltenham Festivals in the Champion Bumper and the Supreme Novices Hurdle, Champagne Fever was superb when scoring easily on his chasing debut and it will be quite disappointing if the current Arkle Favourite is beaten in this contest today. However, it certainly doesn't look a cake walk for him as some very decent animals line up against him and he's much shorter than he really should be in my opinion. Paul Nolan's Defy Logic will definitely prove popular amongst the each way players as he has done very little wrong in his 7 career starts and after running out a very impressive winner on his chasing debut he bumped into another very decent Willie Mullins horse in the shape of Felix Yonger when beaten on his last start. Ted Veale was an impressive winner of the County Hurdle at Cheltenham last year and although he should improve for his 3rd on chasing debut I'd be a little disappointed if he was good enough to win this. I've always been a big fan of Trifolium who was unlucky to finish 3rd in the 2012 Supreme Novices Hurdle having slipped around the home bend and after having a disastrous 2012/2013 season where well beaten on both starts the combination of a wind operation and the switch to fences seemed to work the oracle for Charles Byrnes' as he ran out a very easy winner on his chasing debut last month. Since then he has been well beaten by the exciting Felix Yonger having perhaps gone off a little too quick from the front and although on collateral form through that rival Defy Logic seems to have the upper hand, the reapplication of cheekpieces for the first time over fences (was a much, much better horse with them on over hurdles) should see him improve again today and at 14/1 he does look overpriced. I do expect Champagne Fever to win this contest and strengthen his position as favourite for the Arkle at Cheltenham next year but a very small each way on Trifolium at 14/1 and a forecast on that pair may not be a terrible investment in what should be a great race to watch.

3.30 Leopardstown

This looks a really, really good race to finish up the card and I think at least 6 of the horses can win this contest. The one I like though is Gordon Elliott's Fort Smith who very much caught the eye when 5th behind Moyle Park on his recent hurdling debut and it seems very interesting that his shrewd handler runs him in a Bumper here today. Having seen his price soar to €100,000 when picked up by Gigginstown Stud as a 3 year old, Fort Smith was set an incredibly stiff task on his racecourse debut behind last years winner of this contest Moyle Park over hurdles last month and he was given a lovely introduction by Bryan Cooper as he finished a not knocked about 11L 5th. Understandably sent off an unfancied 25/1 shot, Fort Smith was settled out the back of the field for much of the contest and, under tender handling, he shaped very nicely behind 4 above average horses with experience on what I thought was a really nice debut run. It may seem strange for Elliott to send him into a bumper given his first run was over timber but his trainer is one of the shrewdest in the business and given that he won this race back in 2010 he certainly knows the type of horse needed to win this contest and this half brother to Nigel Twiston-Davies promising Splash Of Ginge also looks the part on paper. Excellent Amateur rider J J Codd takes on what is his only ride of the day and I'm definitely hoping that Fort Smith will be a double figure price which he should definitely outrun. Challengers Windsor Park, Vedettariat, MacBride, The Herds Garden and All Hell Let Loose all bring strong credentials to this contest and any one of them could win and I couldn't put anyone backing any of those rivals in what looks a fiercely competitive race. At what is likely to be a very big price it wouldn't surprise me if Mr Diablo ran a good race and if you're up on the day he'd be worth a very small each way but my main selection is definitely Fort Smith who I am confident is primed to run a very big race and hopefully he can round off the day with a win at a lovely price.

hucklebuck

My God, The Morning Line is ****. Who gives a **** about Richi or Tales From The Rails on Stephens Day with tons of racing on.

My small stakes bet

1 ew Patent

Ohio Gold
Mount Benbulben
Junior

mr.jingle

hucklebuck wrote: »

My God, The Morning Line is ****. Who gives a **** about Richi or Tales From The Rails on Stephens Day with tons of racing on.

I couldnt watch anymore and turned it off! Channel 4 are quickly going down the BBC road and talking more sh!te everytime you look at it. Why cant it be simple and just talk about the racing and give decent opinions.

Mick Fitz is terrible 'D'ya know what? This is a big strong scopey kind of horse, he loves the ground and will take all the beating'. Nick Luck looking puzzled 'You do know thats Willie Mullins stable cat Mick?' :-) Terrible punditry altogether

UrbanSea

I'm having one other bet, News Show looks too big at 22/1 each way in the handicap hurdle at Leopardstown. Has hinted at some ability and ran well last time out, is on a mark that he should be able to be competitive off and has a nice feather weight.

Colonel Sanders

11/10 TNO & 5/4 MTOY in the Xmas hurdle, 2 odds against prices if you want to get stuck into either

4/1 the field in the KG

Bangor Billy

I think Tammys Hill looks a pretty good thing in the hunter at Down Royal and I like Jane Mangan's horse Rock Gone at a price in the bumper at Limerick. Also like Dubai Prince at Kempton and Distime in the 1.35 at Market Rasen.

A couple of the point to point lads also reckon Bollin Line could run well at a big price in the 12.40 at Sedgefield.

the groutch

4 for me today, largely staying away from the "big" races.

12:50 Kempton - Dubai Prince
1:00 Down royal - Better Hand
3:20 Market Rasen - Figaro
3:45 Wolverhampton - Secret Song

ste2010

hucklebuck wrote: »

My God, The Morning Line is ****. Who gives a **** about Richi or Tales From The Rails on Stephens Day with tons of racing on.

It is the worst show I have ever seen!
Mick Fitzgerald is like chalk on a blackboard. He made a fool out himself this morning asking joe tizzard who's milking his cows at home this morning...the same guy who does it 6 days a week...what a clown

Colonel Sanders

Hard to argue with people lining up to take 4/1 Cue Card. He's won going right handed & I think he had excuses in the Haldon this year & this race last year

UrbanSea

SJ going to be top price on The New One between 11-12

UrbanSea

Two non runners in Tullamore Dew's race, leaves 8 runners so went in again. 30 euro win and 10er each way, previously had 15 each way at 12s

Attie

Tammys Hill out to win 1.30 if anyone interested.

Hulk Hands

9/2 Dynaste. Go go go go! Obviously I think thats huge, but can even see the 4's CC as big. Struggling to see how Silvianco is a 4/1 shot. Has his chance but the price is baffling

pudzy

at 11/10 i expect him 2 win......... not much value

ft9

pudzy wrote: »

at 11/10 i expect him 2 win......... not much value

11/8

pudzy

pudzy wrote: »

at 11/10 i expect him 2 win......... not much value

This is the kind of post that sickens my hole.

Dont back it if you dont want to.


For value go here

UrbanSea

FFS I forgot how bad the times are today. There are three races on at 12.30, two in Ireland