Boards.ie uses cookies. By continuing to browse this site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Click here to find out more x
Thread Closed  
 
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
11-12-2013, 15:08   #1
Iancar29
Registered User
 
Iancar29's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 4,993
Atlantic Storm Watch: December 2013

A substantial upgrade on this mornings 06z in terms of tightening of isobars off the West coast merits a level 2 warning in my opinion.




Whats giving rise to this stormy spell is the low pressure making its way East across the atlantic is getting squashed by the strong high pressure over europe .

Winds will start picking up in the Kerry, Clare regions from sunrise saturday morning and increase right up to midday as the low centre move NNE .


Winds of up to 95kph and severe Gusts of 125 , perhaps 130kmh are possible on exposed coast in the west , Galway possibly taking the brunt of this storm.

[IMG][/IMG]

The severe gusts then will be more concentrated in the NW but still high winds country wide with gusts to 95kmh .

Due to the Northerly component of these winds , western areas might not get anything out of the norm for them but still something to watch for. High winds in areas of the wicklow mountains would be noticeable in S Dublin especially .



PIty i will be working all day saturday and wont get to be out to enjoy it


All eyes on the 12z to see if it keeps things in line with the 6z.
Attached Images
File Type: png Screen shot 2013-12-11 at 14.57.43.png (446.1 KB, 18585 views)
File Type: png Screen shot 2013-12-11 at 15.00.45.png (357.5 KB, 18496 views)
File Type: png Screen shot 2013-12-11 at 15.05.35.png (352.3 KB, 18607 views)

Last edited by pistolpetes11; 18-12-2013 at 19:42.
Iancar29 is offline  
Advertisement
11-12-2013, 15:12   #2
pad199207
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 3,640
This can feck off altogether ive a party on Sat!
pad199207 is offline  
11-12-2013, 15:18   #3
Iancar29
Registered User
 
Iancar29's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 4,993
NOT RELATED TO THIS STORM

But look at what the GFs has popped up near us for next week?!


956 hp i make that out as?
Attached Images
File Type: png Screen shot 2013-12-11 at 15.18.27.png (191.0 KB, 18243 views)
Iancar29 is offline  
(2) thanks from:
11-12-2013, 15:22   #4
SCOOP 64
Registered User
 
SCOOP 64's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 3,101
Do i not put the outdoor xmas decorations up this weekend then?
SCOOP 64 is offline  
11-12-2013, 15:36   #5
Bsal
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 1,412
Quote:
Originally Posted by Iancar29 View Post
NOT RELATED TO THIS STORM

But look at what the GFs has popped up near us for next week?!


956 hp i make that out as?

Looks more like 936hPa at the centre, I count 10 isobars from 976 to the centre.
Bsal is offline  
Advertisement
11-12-2013, 15:42   #6
Iancar29
Registered User
 
Iancar29's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 4,993
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bsal View Post
Looks more like 936hPa at the centre, I count 10 isobars from 976 to the centre.
Sorry i double checked it on fullscreen , yeah 10!
Iancar29 is offline  
(4) thanks from:
11-12-2013, 15:48   #7
_Whimsical_
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 7,075
Quote:
Originally Posted by Iancar29 View Post
Sorry i double checked it on fullscreen , yeah 10!
Ten is good ? As in extra stormy?
_Whimsical_ is offline  
11-12-2013, 15:51   #8
Sleety_Rain
Registered User
 
Sleety_Rain's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 10,794
GFS 12z interesting. Low doesn't deepen as quickly and pushes closer to Ireland. Isobars even more tightly packed over Ireland.

Widespread gusts to 120 km/hr possible almost anywhere on this run, coastal counties at risk of greater gusts.
Sleety_Rain is offline  
11-12-2013, 15:57   #9
Sleety_Rain
Registered User
 
Sleety_Rain's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 10,794
Another deep deep feature rapidly intensifies behind Saturday's system but does so so fast that it heads to our north-west. However the positioning and/or intensity of this is very much open to big changes.

This one bombs from a little kink in the 1000hPa Isobar to a 950hPa storm in 24 hours.

Sleety_Rain is offline  
(5) thanks from:
Advertisement
11-12-2013, 15:58   #10
Iancar29
Registered User
 
Iancar29's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 4,993
Quote:
Originally Posted by Weathercheck View Post
GFS 12z interesting. Low doesn't deepen as quickly and pushes closer to Ireland. Isobars even more tightly packed over Ireland.

Widespread gusts to 120 km/hr possible almost anywhere on this run, coastal counties at risk of greater gusts.
Yep , has lessened the isolate severe gusts but spreads out the overall high gusts to all of us . Expect ferry cancellations is this is to come off.
Attached Images
File Type: png Screen shot 2013-12-11 at 16.00.20.png (330.8 KB, 18364 views)
Iancar29 is offline  
Thanks from:
11-12-2013, 16:37   #11
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 10,089
High tide (minor storm surge) issues will be in play with full moon timed for 09z Tuesday 17th. Agreed that Saturday presents a level 2 potential although in a region pretty much used to level 2 conditions, on current model output would be level one for almost all readers. The Tuesday event is the result of the slowly-developing central to east coast U.S. storm which is likely to emerge from New England around Sunday morning then race northeast while steadily deepening. I think the Tuesday event bears watching as it occurs with a very strong energy peak.
M.T. Cranium is offline  
11-12-2013, 18:19   #12
Sleety_Rain
Registered User
 
Sleety_Rain's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 10,794
ECMWF has Sunday's intense storm out to north-west.

Although a much watch.

ECMWF:

Sleety_Rain is offline  
11-12-2013, 18:24   #13
Sleety_Rain
Registered User
 
Sleety_Rain's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 10,794
GFS Ensembles are very interesting. Lots of dangerous storms in and around Ireland.

Few scary Ensembles, this one gets the tick for looking the scariest.

Sleety_Rain is offline  
11-12-2013, 18:26   #14
Sleety_Rain
Registered User
 
Sleety_Rain's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 10,794
It would be pretty scary seeing this one in our southwest approaches too....

Sleety_Rain is offline  
(8) thanks from:
11-12-2013, 19:42   #15
maquiladora
Registered User
 
maquiladora's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 11,121
Quote:
Originally Posted by Iancar29 View Post
NOT RELATED TO THIS STORM

But look at what the GFs has popped up near us for next week?!


956 hp i make that out as?
It's 943mb on the GFS at that point (153 hours). It bottoms out at 938mb (162 hours). No danger to us though a secondary low might be.

The other low at 96 hours gets down to 944mb too, but that too is a different low again to the one this thread is about.

A very active period of weather coming up for sure, though the more serious looking stuff looks to be staying clear of us on the models for the moment.
maquiladora is offline  
(3) thanks from:
Thread Closed

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search