Atlantic Storm Watch: December 2013

tylercollins

NIMAN wrote: »

Hopefully it'll not be too bad this weekend.

Our local Xmas tree in the town centre snapped in half last week in the storm and has just been replaced. Would be cruel for it to happen a 2nd time.

Carndonagh?

Ficheall

Due to fly Dublin-Birmingham on Sat and Birmingham-Dub on Weds. Reckon flights will be affected?

V_Moth

A bit of a breezy day predicted by Met Eireann for Sunday. Anyone fancy taking the ferry out to Inishbofin :pac:

maquiladora

12Z NAE showing storm force winds along exposed western coasts on Saturday morning with gales from southwest to northwest counties.



And by midday gales in all coastal counties with strong gales on coasts.



Nothing record breaking there but a windy day for sure.

ninebeanrows

Saturday's event seems less severe now.

While Sunday's storm to our west appears to be going even further northwest in latest runs.

So we may escape over the weekend with just a widespread gale on Saturday.

DUBACC

Taking the fastferry to Holyhead next Wednesday. If this storm happens, looks like im going nowhere!

maquiladora

12Z GFS has Saturday's winds a little stronger than the 06Z. Gusts on the west coast closer to 140 km/h on this run.

maquiladora

DUBACC wrote: »

Taking the fastferry to Holyhead next Wednesday. If this storm happens, looks like im going nowhere!

Strong winds will have passed by Saturday evening. Nothing to worry about for Wednesday unless another system appears on that day.

ninebeanrows

UKM & GFS different @ 12z. UKM delays the low development, GFS 20hPa deeper @ sae time step.

Hooter23

One says Saturdays storm less severe now another says Saturdays storm has gotten a little stronger on the latest run

....Anyway I will be surprised if we dont get hit badly by one big storm in the coming weeks looking at them charts as they are now

ninebeanrows

ECMWF keeps Sunday's system off the Northwest coast, but still one to watch for parts of the northwest as a movement southeast could put them at high risk.

ninebeanrows

With regard to Saturday.

A swathe of strong and gusty winds will approach in advance of the warm front.

It will be very windy but is lacking that severity that can cause significant damage.

Widespread gusts to 100km/hr (50-55 knots) and above are likely however with some gusts to 120/130km/hr (65-70 knots) in exposed areas.

Weathering

I watched BBC weather FC and they mentioned gusts of 60-70mph for NI&Scotland on Saturday and possibly 80-90mph on Sunday for the same areas.

ninebeanrows

Still a broad spectrum of ideas with regard to Saturday's system (at just 48hrs) with big inter ensemble difference in intensity and position.

Most ECMWF members leave Sunday's vigorous depression in and around where the Operational has progged but some have it brushing the north-west coast. The storm is still too close to our north-west to rule it out as if it did struck would cause damage. A low probability but high impact event.

Saturday is a high probability, medium impact event.

Oscar Bravo

Met Eireann in on the game now " It will become very windy again on Sunday with the risk of severe winds affecting the North and Northwest coast. It will then turning showery on Sunday night with a risk of frost and the wind moderating"

Red Nissan

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Met Eireann in on the game now " It will become very windy again on Sunday with the risk of severe winds affecting the North and Northwest coast. It will then turning showery on Sunday night with a risk of frost and the wind moderating"

Thanks for that, following this forum again. As an aside, what did the postman say. did you hear?

ninebeanrows

Looks like we are escaping a little monster on Sunday.

ninebeanrows

Fancy an 80 knot wind barb! A rare sight.

ninebeanrows

As for Saturday, latest 12z ups the winds especially for western coasts.

Weathering

Sundays storm is insane, I'm still hoping it will track further South. Hope for upgrades overnight

Hooter23

What kind of wind speeds are we looking at for sundays storm on recent charts? (Sustained winds & gusts)

dopolahpec

Weathercheck wrote: »

Looks like we are escaping a little monster on Sunday.

If that hit Ireland at that stage of development. We'd be in trouble I'd say.

ninebeanrows

dopolahpec wrote: »

If that hit Ireland at that stage of development. We'd be in trouble I'd say.

Yup sure would, but looks very unlikely unless some major delay in its developed and change in angle of Jet.

IF it hit at that stage we'd be talking 100knot gust range for exposed west coasts.

ninebeanrows

18z GEFS hinting at perhaps a new trend for the development of a third low, inbetween Saturday and Sunday's features!

maquiladora

18Z HIRLAM has downgraded Saturday's winds slightly. Not much change on the 18Z GFS.

I don't think there's any chance Sunday's low will track far enough south to have any real impact on us. Strong systems that wind up like that always turn more to the left/north.

ninebeanrows

Looking windy enough Saturday morning.

Here are progged 925hPa winds.





Also must watch possible kink in Isobars later Saturday which crosses country.

Here is GME's take on it.

howlinwolf

this is for the more intelligent than me, is the blocking setup that we have been unfortunately been living under the last few weeks any way related to what now looks like a very stormy atlantic period. or is just the weather balancing itself out.

gugsy

Winds and gusts picking up now in galway city. Mace head recording wind speed of 32knots and gusts of 43. With the strongest wind between 3am tonight and 12pm tomorrow it will be interesting to see what speeds are recorded around the country.

Tindie

is there a another strom next week? for most of england ? any one chart from 18- 20 dec 2013?

thanks

Weathering

Met Eireann forecasting gusts of 90-110km/h for tomorrow. Nothing out of the ordinary