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Possible Storm / Strong winds 26th to 28th October 2013 ?

  • 21-10-2013 4:41pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 695 ✭✭✭Tazio


    Mods please move / delete if appropriate etc.. (very infrequent poster here)

    Have been looking at the GFS runs for the end of the month over the last 2 weeks and there sees to be a common theme... (In my very very amateur mind)... It looks like a wind event at the end of the month..

    276993.png


    276994.png

    It's only a week off now, so whats the possibly of a storm? I've read MT's forecasts for the last few days and he's hinted at such an event.. but from the runs above it (to me) looks like it become a big one..


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Yeah I've been keeping an eye on it and posting about the possibility in the Autumn thread. Still a bit far away yet, a lot can change in a week.

    12Z GFS brings it down to 946mb.

    xdB95W8.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 695 ✭✭✭Tazio


    Yeah I've been keeping an eye on it and posting about the possibility in the Autumn thread. Still a bit far away yet, a lot can change in a week.

    12Z GFS brings it down to 946mb.

    Ah, just read the Autumn thread there... sorry for the duplication of information!


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    12Z GEM has dropped it from yesterday, UKMO and NAVGEM don't really have anything either.

    Worth keeping an eye on but far from a sure thing.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Yes been keeping an eye out, be interesting to see the ECMWF Ensemble stamps again later and for the next few days. It's a good while away yet and will probably do its usual last minute move to Iceland!


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,267 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    There was support for this on the 00z ECM as well, now the 12z GFS continues the theme and so we're seven days out in a pattern that the models have been handling fairly well. The signal is consistent with pattern change upstream as strong positive anomalies fade to strong negative around 80-100 W (in other words cold air begins to flow out over the western Atlantic). The GEM model is not picking up this energy yet and shows a much more moderate solution within roughly the same upper level large-scale features (on day 7). The storm now depicted on the GFS would certainly give 60-70 knot gusts so this would be the first big autumn storm if it verifies.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 510 ✭✭✭dopolahpec


    The models have been very steady with the idea of a storm around the 28th October for some days now as Maq has been pointing out, and MT also. The trend is most certainly there and if anything the solutions are becoming more vicious as we start to move closer. Though 7 days is a long way off in model terms. If this is still showing at the same scale come Thursday I will sit up and take note. There's some talk I've seen elsewhere of a potentially very stormy November this year because of a song sea temperature gradient in the north atlantic or some such. ..don't quote me on it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,267 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    North Atlantic generally 2-3 C above normal across 45-55N, bookmark this for future reference:

    http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2013/anomnight.10.21.2013.gif

    (bookmark the first part of that address anyway, you'll get a menu with updates twice a week on all regions and global.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    12Z GFS operational run was more intense than any of the ensembles, though a few others were pretty strong too.

    xkQwKkm.jpg


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,267 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    ECM 12z now brings strongest winds Sunday night, not quite as strong either. Lots of time left for this to evolve and really the windy potential is probably spread out over Sunday to mid-week or later (1 Nov). Trick or treat?


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,237 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    Oh I love a good storm!! Pretty darn wet and windy here at the moment actually...


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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Just for fun, another look at that 12Z GFS. Simulated IR imagery and the hi-res version showing pressure down to 945mb approaching the northwest of Ireland.

    j4kzWpx.jpg


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,479 ✭✭✭Hooter23


    There showing tomorrows newspapers on sky news frontpage on one of them said "90mph Storm of the Century to batter Britain "do they know more than we know :eek:Or just tryin to sell more papers:rolleyes:


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Hooter23 wrote: »
    There showing tomorrows newspapers on sky news frontpage on one of them said "90mph Storm of the Century to batter Britain "do they know more than we know :eek:Or just tryin to sell more papers:rolleyes:

    Is it the Express by any chance!? Must be some serious weather junkie in there!


  • Registered Users Posts: 908 ✭✭✭downwiththatsor


    http://t.co/5rD0StNHi3
    Daily Express 90Mph gales!


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    The 945mb low off the northwest coast bringing severe gusts to the west coast on the 12Z GFS is now (on the 18Z GFS) a 980mb low off the southwest bringing severe gusts to no place. FI indeed. :pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 695 ✭✭✭Tazio


    A run from today taken from here :http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

    277103.jpg



    and Jetstream for the craic too..
    277104.jpg

    Admitting I'm very very very amateur at this stuff, does the probability increase with each run IF each run is calculating/predicting the roughly the same outcome?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 510 ✭✭✭dopolahpec


    I've been watching the storm potential, and it seems to have downgraded overnight, though there's every chance something like it could reappear again. Of the main models only the GFS is now showing a potential 'storm' and it is definitely not as severe as what it showed yesterday.

    If you would like to follow the models yourself you can get them at meteociel.fr. You can use google translate on the page as it is in French. All the output can be animated to give an idea of trends. Also the GFS updates 4 times a day, and the ECM twice a day.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    dopolahpec wrote: »
    I've been watching the storm potential, and it seems to have downgraded overnight, though there's every chance something like it could reappear again. Of the main models only the GFS is now showing a potential 'storm' and it is definitely not as severe as what it showed yesterday.

    If you would like to follow the models yourself you can get them at meteociel.fr. You can use google translate on the page as it is in French. All the output can be animated to give an idea of trends. Also the GFS updates 4 times a day, and the ECM twice a day.

    Yeah it's back on the 0Z GFS. At this range you'd always expect to see a lot of variation from run to run anyway.

    13102818_2200.gif

    0Z GEM with something similar.

    sX2bb3o.gif

    Which would have very strong winds, but because of that particular track they'd stay out at sea to our south.

    FyUrv7I.gif

    ECM isn't on board though.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    The Daily Express will like the 6z GFS with the risk of it's 90mph winds in the UK!

    Rtavn1501.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    06Z GFS develops the low later, with it deepening as it crosses UK & and Ireland.

    13102800_2206.gif
    13102806_2206.gif
    13102812_2206.gif

    Which would give the southeast a bit of battering as it zipped by. Shows sustained winds up to 65kts, hurricane force, between Wexford and Wales. Anyone fancy the ferry?

    13102806_2206.gif

    Still a long way off, just interesting to see what happens from run to run.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Was just gonna post the O6z run too! , heavent seen a low that strength go that southerly route in a long time.

    Must ....... not get excited ....


    If this was only T+12 hrs though id be like this..
    :D
    quagmire+in+motion.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 48,124 ✭✭✭✭km79


    Flying Manchester to Shannon Monday night 830pm.........


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    06Z GFS. About a 1/4 of the ensembles have a more intense low than the operational run, some of them are really deep for a low taking such a southerly track...

    4RfWBk2.jpg


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,013 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    Iancar29 wrote: »
    Was just gonna post the O6z run too! , heavent seen a low that strength go that southerly route in a long time.
    neither have I. They better have the sandbags ready in Cork city centre just in case the low does takes that track, a tidal storm surge would be a serious concern.


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,944 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    It's a bit far out yet but certainly one to keep an eye on, would be unusual track with the East seen the worst of the winds.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 510 ✭✭✭dopolahpec


    It's certainly an interesting one to watch. While it is all over the place at the moment, disappearing, reappearing, tracking north, south, developing out at sea, developing as it passes over Ireland, the notable thing is that the GFS is doggedly hanging on to it, with support from the GEM in particular and intermittent support from the ECM. Exciting to track, though I don't know if it would be too exciting to have your roof ripped off. Anyway, I'll be keeping a close eye on it in the days to come. Still almost a week away, that is a long time in weather world, whatever occurs, as always it won't be what the models show today.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Just for fun, one of the 06Z GFS ensembles is showing this. Location is Dublin Airport.

    fI5nmTs.jpg


  • Registered Users Posts: 332 ✭✭howlinwolf


    ah nuts....flying to England Saturday and flying home Monday ..could get interesting :eek:


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Just for fun, one of the 06Z GFS ensembles is showing this. Location is Dublin Airport.

    fI5nmTs.jpg

    277169.png

    And here it is!


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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Some big differences with the 12Z GFS. Barely manages to close off a 990mb low this time.

    gfs-0-129-3h.png


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