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21-10-2013, 17:41   #1
Tazio
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Possible Storm / Strong winds 26th to 28th October 2013 ?

Mods please move / delete if appropriate etc.. (very infrequent poster here)

Have been looking at the GFS runs for the end of the month over the last 2 weeks and there sees to be a common theme... (In my very very amateur mind)... It looks like a wind event at the end of the month..






It's only a week off now, so whats the possibly of a storm? I've read MT's forecasts for the last few days and he's hinted at such an event.. but from the runs above it (to me) looks like it become a big one..
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21-10-2013, 17:49   #2
maquiladora
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Yeah I've been keeping an eye on it and posting about the possibility in the Autumn thread. Still a bit far away yet, a lot can change in a week.

12Z GFS brings it down to 946mb.

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21-10-2013, 17:54   #3
Tazio
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Quote:
Originally Posted by maquiladora View Post
Yeah I've been keeping an eye on it and posting about the possibility in the Autumn thread. Still a bit far away yet, a lot can change in a week.

12Z GFS brings it down to 946mb.
Ah, just read the Autumn thread there... sorry for the duplication of information!
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21-10-2013, 18:01   #4
maquiladora
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12Z GEM has dropped it from yesterday, UKMO and NAVGEM don't really have anything either.

Worth keeping an eye on but far from a sure thing.
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21-10-2013, 18:04   #5
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Yes been keeping an eye out, be interesting to see the ECMWF Ensemble stamps again later and for the next few days. It's a good while away yet and will probably do its usual last minute move to Iceland!
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21-10-2013, 18:06   #6
M.T. Cranium
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There was support for this on the 00z ECM as well, now the 12z GFS continues the theme and so we're seven days out in a pattern that the models have been handling fairly well. The signal is consistent with pattern change upstream as strong positive anomalies fade to strong negative around 80-100 W (in other words cold air begins to flow out over the western Atlantic). The GEM model is not picking up this energy yet and shows a much more moderate solution within roughly the same upper level large-scale features (on day 7). The storm now depicted on the GFS would certainly give 60-70 knot gusts so this would be the first big autumn storm if it verifies.
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21-10-2013, 18:07   #7
 
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The models have been very steady with the idea of a storm around the 28th October for some days now as Maq has been pointing out, and MT also. The trend is most certainly there and if anything the solutions are becoming more vicious as we start to move closer. Though 7 days is a long way off in model terms. If this is still showing at the same scale come Thursday I will sit up and take note. There's some talk I've seen elsewhere of a potentially very stormy November this year because of a song sea temperature gradient in the north atlantic or some such. ..don't quote me on it.
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21-10-2013, 18:34   #8
M.T. Cranium
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North Atlantic generally 2-3 C above normal across 45-55N, bookmark this for future reference:

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/an...10.21.2013.gif

(bookmark the first part of that address anyway, you'll get a menu with updates twice a week on all regions and global.
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21-10-2013, 18:48   #9
maquiladora
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12Z GFS operational run was more intense than any of the ensembles, though a few others were pretty strong too.

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21-10-2013, 20:03   #10
M.T. Cranium
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ECM 12z now brings strongest winds Sunday night, not quite as strong either. Lots of time left for this to evolve and really the windy potential is probably spread out over Sunday to mid-week or later (1 Nov). Trick or treat?
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21-10-2013, 20:33   #11
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Oh I love a good storm!! Pretty darn wet and windy here at the moment actually...
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21-10-2013, 21:04   #12
maquiladora
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Just for fun, another look at that 12Z GFS. Simulated IR imagery and the hi-res version showing pressure down to 945mb approaching the northwest of Ireland.

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21-10-2013, 22:41   #13
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Storm of the Century!!!

There showing tomorrows newspapers on sky news frontpage on one of them said "90mph Storm of the Century to batter Britain "do they know more than we know :eek:Or just tryin to sell more papers
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21-10-2013, 22:57   #14
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There showing tomorrows newspapers on sky news frontpage on one of them said "90mph Storm of the Century to batter Britain "do they know more than we know :eek:Or just tryin to sell more papers
Is it the Express by any chance!? Must be some serious weather junkie in there!
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21-10-2013, 23:09   #15
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http://t.co/5rD0StNHi3
Daily Express 90Mph gales!
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