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Snow risk Tuesday night in to Wednesday in the midlands and possibly the east

  • 13-01-2013 5:22pm
    #1
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 142 ✭✭Oarrack Bama


    Hi all,

    While the models are very uncertain at a relatively short range there is increasing risk of significant snow fall later Tuesday. Both the UKMO and GFS confirm disruptive potential just 66 hrs out. There is enough confidence for a thread on this potential event.

    Only use this thread specifically for Tuesday. A lot of onlookers are no doubt confused about next week and probably very frustrated as well. Lets not make it any more annoying for them.

    Here we are talking about significant disruptive frontal snow fall for a good portion of the country - something not seen in very many years - so it's not nailed yet but certainly potential is there. It may be only as far as the midlands but the east is also at risk. Basically the Atlantic is going to try and do battle with the continental easterlies (and lose). We are in the middle. It's a good examle of the undercutting of cold air being talked about recently. When warm fronts or occlusions come up against a cold block it can give a lot of snow.

    GFS

    gfs-0-66.png?12

    UK Met Office

    UW60-21.GIF?13-18
    We are aware of further frontal snow potential later in the week. For now it's only safe to go this far. Use the other threads for that to keep things sensible for onlookers and other posters.


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 9,009 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    Yessssss, missed these threads :pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,426 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    Would the last time we had propper battle ground snow have been in the mid 80s when the east was affected.


  • Registered Users Posts: 332 ✭✭howlinwolf


    as you said its very uncertain at the moment,do you not think this thread will cause a bit of mass hysteria with people assuming its nailed on esp as its only a few days away.......as anyone thats been following the let it snow thread knows the models are all over the place at best so i personally think its very uncertain....i hope it comes off cause im sick of the mild air pushing the cold back on all the model runs;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    Good to see the yellow triangle back i suppose, might be giving the game away all the same...

    Im at a loss to see any potential really. 850hpa temps ranging between 0c in the SW to the -4 line clipping the NE of Ulster. Most of the country under -1 or -2. Nowhere near close enough. This is not a continental flow so you would probably need -7c 850hpa temperatures.

    gfs-1-48_qya7.png

    Of course if continuous precipitation is heavy enough there may be a significant evaporative cooling effect. But I cannot see this being enough to overcome 850hpa temperatures about 5 degrees to high.

    Surfave overview... Temps and dewpoints over zero everywhere.
    ukpaneltemp.png

    You haven't actually said why you think the precip will fall as snow, are you just basing this on GFS precip type charts? :confused:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 270 ✭✭Bejubby


    Maybe the use of the word potential in the heading wouldnt go astray.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,745 ✭✭✭whitebriar


    BEASTERLY wrote: »
    you haven't actually said why you think the precip will fall as snow, are you just basing this on GFS precip type charts? :confused:
    Trends and blends


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭Lucreto


    If I learnt anything over the last few years the mild air ALWAYS wins so I am putting little stock in any snow Wednesday or this week in fact.

    I just hope the SSW will start taking effect soon and it will effect us.

    Saying that I will be watching the streetlights just in case.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    whitebriar wrote: »
    Trends and blends

    A forecast based on what the models might show next? Ah yea, a well known professional forecasting technique. Id love to be wrong but I just cannot see much potential for a widespread noteworthy event. Some potential... yes. Not enough to deserve a thread like this... yellow triangle and all! :rolleyes:


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 142 ✭✭Oarrack Bama


    BEASTERLY wrote: »
    You haven't actually said why you think the precip will fall as snow, are you just basing this on GFS precip type charts? :confused:


    No. And if you are trying to prove something preferably you should use charts for the time period specified.

    Undoubtedly the forecast is risky but a lot of people are confused about next week. It's better to narrow down potential periods of snow and concentrate on them rather then the mish mash of contradiction in the model threads about both the short and longer term.

    In terms of Tuesday definitely a proper chance of snow - it depends how far east or west the undercut is - for now it's definitely on. Anyone who can read this chart knows exactly what I mean

    Rukm601.gif


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 142 ✭✭Oarrack Bama


    ECM 12z has under cut slightly further west. Better for the midlands and some western areas. The east would probably miss out if ECM verified. But it's too close to call specifics like that at this stage.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly



    Undoubtedly the forecast is risky but a lot of people are confused about next week.

    No, they are not, but what I think is confusing is the now ridiculous amount of winter threads that are opened at this point. It is hard to know which one to click. Not going to say you are wrong on calling this, but I really think a thread such as this should not be opened this early, especially considering that this potential is already being discussed in just one of the many other similar threads opened.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 142 ✭✭Oarrack Bama


    Not going to say you are wrong on calling this, but I really think a thread such as this should not be opened this early,


    :D How early do you think is reasonable? We are talking 60 hrs out here. Cross model agreement. GFS/UKMO/ECM all agree at this range.

    All I am doing is trying to make it easy for those who can't read the charts or who just go blank when they read the model thread because they understandably don't understand. What is wrong with that? I think most would appreciate it tbh.

    Can we keep this thread for Tuesday? You needn't help or contribute if you don't want to. I will do it myself.


  • Registered Users Posts: 465 ✭✭Mr Bumble


    One ramping, one model and one specific would seem like the right mix...bit of mod weeding would fix it...


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,691 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34



    No, they are not, but what I think is confusing is the now ridiculous amount of winter threads that are opened at this point. It is hard to know which one to click. Not going to say you are wrong on calling this, but I really think a thread such as this should not be opened this early, especially considering that this potential is already being discussed in just one of the many other similar threads opened.

    +1. Its become ridiculous, there weren't this many threads for the big events in recent years and for me there is a massive doubt that anywhere but high level areas will see snow in the next 6 days before the atlantic comes in. event thread for a probable non-event


  • Registered Users Posts: 78 ✭✭chilipepper


    Fair dues for sticking your neck out and making a forecast oarrack bama.
    Is feidir linn.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    No. And if you are trying to prove something preferably you should use charts for the time period specified.

    Undoubtedly the forecast is risky but a lot of people are confused about next week. It's better to narrow down potential periods of snow and concentrate on them rather then the mish mash of contradiction in the model threads about both the short and longer term.

    In terms of Tuesday definitely a proper chance of snow - it depends how far east or west the undercut is - for now it's definitely on. Anyone who can read this chart knows exactly what I mean

    Rukm601.gif

    Sorry my first chart was 12 hours to early. The chart for the time period you speak of gives -5 850hpa for 40% of the country. We will need lower than that given this is not a continental airflow. It would be good for snow lovers as long as you don't mind traveling to you're nearest mountain range.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    :D How early do you think is reasonable?

    Too many threads open man, that is all I am sayin'.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 142 ✭✭Oarrack Bama


    BEASTERLY wrote: »
    Sorry my first chart was 12 hours to early. The chart for the time period you speak of gives -5 850hpa for 40% of the country. We will need lower than that given this is not a continental airflow. It would be good for snow lovers as long as you don't mind traveling to you're nearest mountain range.

    We will have to agree to disagree. If you don't mind me saying you seem to be working off a blind assumption that we need sub -8 850's for snow. We don't. Consider all the other variables as well. Atlantic fronts meeting cold blocks will always have an element of marginality. I respect your opinion but I don't agree with it on this occasion.:)


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    We will have to agree to disagree. If you don't mind me saying you seem to be working off a blind assumption that we need sub -8 850's for snow. We don't. Consider all the other variables as well. Atlantic fronts meeting cold blocks will always have an element of marginality. I respect your opinion but I don't agree with it on this occasion.:)

    Well... Ive posted charts showing dew point and temps above zero everywhere. I do think we need -7/-8c @ 850hpa in this case as we have a maritime airmass in the mix, not pure continental. We also have no cold pool to speak of.


  • Registered Users Posts: 490 ✭✭Snowaddict


    The enthusiasm in opening this thread OB is admirable. However, we need to be very careful not to create alarm over an event that may not actually transpire.

    I would caution against any focus on specific details beyond T+48 at the moment. In this scenario, GFS is indicating some energy heading directly southwards through Ireland and being deflected under the block thereafter. However, the 850HPA Profile and associated parameters are not supportive of widespread snowfall for this particular event as currently modelled, in my opinion.

    Let us see how this develops over the coming 24 Hours.

    Regards,

    SA


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 142 ✭✭Oarrack Bama


    I am happy with the forecast in the OP. I think it's appropriate. At this stage the only risk is how far east or west the precipitation is over Ireland and thus the snow risk. :)

    @ Beasterly we do have a cold pool of air and it is cold enough.


  • Registered Users Posts: 763 ✭✭✭H2UMrsRobinson


    I would have to argue that threads are usually self sustaining , if there's a need for a thread it will become apparent by its lifespan and refresh rate. As for confusion, I would also argue that if you can't manage more than 3 threads then how do you function in the real world. IMHO winter threads are like sex - the more the merrier !!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 979 ✭✭✭barney 20v


    I would have to argue that threads are usually self sustaining , if there's a need for a thread it will become apparent by its lifespan and refresh rate. As for confusion, I would also argue that if you can't manage more than 3 threads then how do you function in the real world. IMHO winter threads are like sex - the more the merrier !!!
    Quality not quantity


  • Registered Users Posts: 763 ✭✭✭H2UMrsRobinson


    barney 20v wrote: »
    Quality not quantity

    In my experience these are not mutually exclusive - get it where you can and ride the wave my friend!


  • Registered Users Posts: 584 ✭✭✭sumo12


    Fair dues for sticking your neck out and making a forecast oarrack bama.
    Is feidir linn.

    +1

    Big call. I have no technical knowledge but just by forecast watching and listening to you guys on here (mood swings worse than my wife) and other discussions there seems to be a lot of uncertainty. OP there's a pint of plain from me if you're right!


  • Registered Users Posts: 809 ✭✭✭omicron


    We will have to agree to disagree. If you don't mind me saying you seem to be working off a blind assumption that we need sub -8 850's for snow. We don't. Consider all the other variables as well. Atlantic fronts meeting cold blocks will always have an element of marginality. I respect your opinion but I don't agree with it on this occasion.:)

    I'm inclined to agree with Beasterly here, the potential isn't really there for snow, no real cold pool here and a maritime airmass.

    I also think it's a bit premature for a thread, the forum becomes 'the boy who called wolf' very quickly if alarmist threads like this are opened.

    Edit: The title is ridiculous, it's phrased as a certain forecast for midlands snow, not a very slight chance of it.
    Also, the 528 dam line doesn't even cross the country for the forecast period, so where is this snow forecast coming from?!!! Needs a big turnaround from the models if this is to verify.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,796 ✭✭✭Calibos


    I feel another Xmas 2009 battle scenario coming on. That was 48 hours of rain unfortunately.

    [ posted from my 3g iPad ;) ]


  • Registered Users Posts: 845 ✭✭✭tylercollins


    uksnowrisk.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 908 ✭✭✭downwiththatsor


    BBC Countryfile forecast going for rain for ireland and delaying it till Thursday


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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,138 ✭✭✭snaps


    Nothing mentioned or shown on the countryfile weather forecast on BBC just now. Showing the battle between mild and cold air. You can guess where the mild air is!
    Battleground over Wales.


This discussion has been closed.
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