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13-01-2013, 17:22   #1
Oarrack Bama
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Snow risk Tuesday night in to Wednesday in the midlands and possibly the east

Hi all,

While the models are very uncertain at a relatively short range there is increasing risk of significant snow fall later Tuesday. Both the UKMO and GFS confirm disruptive potential just 66 hrs out. There is enough confidence for a thread on this potential event.

Only use this thread specifically for Tuesday. A lot of onlookers are no doubt confused about next week and probably very frustrated as well. Lets not make it any more annoying for them.

Here we are talking about significant disruptive frontal snow fall for a good portion of the country - something not seen in very many years - so it's not nailed yet but certainly potential is there. It may be only as far as the midlands but the east is also at risk. Basically the Atlantic is going to try and do battle with the continental easterlies (and lose). We are in the middle. It's a good examle of the undercutting of cold air being talked about recently. When warm fronts or occlusions come up against a cold block it can give a lot of snow.

GFS



UK Met Office


We are aware of further frontal snow potential later in the week. For now it's only safe to go this far. Use the other threads for that to keep things sensible for onlookers and other posters.

Last edited by Oarrack Bama; 14-01-2013 at 00:17.
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13-01-2013, 17:56   #2
Tom Cruises Left Nut
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Yessssss, missed these threads
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13-01-2013, 18:05   #3
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Would the last time we had propper battle ground snow have been in the mid 80s when the east was affected.
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13-01-2013, 18:06   #4
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as you said its very uncertain at the moment,do you not think this thread will cause a bit of mass hysteria with people assuming its nailed on esp as its only a few days away.......as anyone thats been following the let it snow thread knows the models are all over the place at best so i personally think its very uncertain....i hope it comes off cause im sick of the mild air pushing the cold back on all the model runs
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13-01-2013, 18:07   #5
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Good to see the yellow triangle back i suppose, might be giving the game away all the same...

Im at a loss to see any potential really. 850hpa temps ranging between 0c in the SW to the -4 line clipping the NE of Ulster. Most of the country under -1 or -2. Nowhere near close enough. This is not a continental flow so you would probably need -7c 850hpa temperatures.



Of course if continuous precipitation is heavy enough there may be a significant evaporative cooling effect. But I cannot see this being enough to overcome 850hpa temperatures about 5 degrees to high.

Surfave overview... Temps and dewpoints over zero everywhere.


You haven't actually said why you think the precip will fall as snow, are you just basing this on GFS precip type charts?
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13-01-2013, 18:15   #6
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Maybe the use of the word potential in the heading wouldnt go astray.
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13-01-2013, 18:15   #7
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BEASTERLY View Post
you haven't actually said why you think the precip will fall as snow, are you just basing this on GFS precip type charts?
Trends and blends
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13-01-2013, 18:20   #8
Lucreto
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If I learnt anything over the last few years the mild air ALWAYS wins so I am putting little stock in any snow Wednesday or this week in fact.

I just hope the SSW will start taking effect soon and it will effect us.

Saying that I will be watching the streetlights just in case.
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13-01-2013, 18:24   #9
BEASTERLY
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Originally Posted by whitebriar View Post
Trends and blends
A forecast based on what the models might show next? Ah yea, a well known professional forecasting technique. Id love to be wrong but I just cannot see much potential for a widespread noteworthy event. Some potential... yes. Not enough to deserve a thread like this... yellow triangle and all!
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13-01-2013, 18:25   #10
Oarrack Bama
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BEASTERLY View Post
You haven't actually said why you think the precip will fall as snow, are you just basing this on GFS precip type charts?

No. And if you are trying to prove something preferably you should use charts for the time period specified.

Undoubtedly the forecast is risky but a lot of people are confused about next week. It's better to narrow down potential periods of snow and concentrate on them rather then the mish mash of contradiction in the model threads about both the short and longer term.

In terms of Tuesday definitely a proper chance of snow - it depends how far east or west the undercut is - for now it's definitely on. Anyone who can read this chart knows exactly what I mean

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13-01-2013, 18:33   #11
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ECM 12z has under cut slightly further west. Better for the midlands and some western areas. The east would probably miss out if ECM verified. But it's too close to call specifics like that at this stage.

Last edited by Oarrack Bama; 13-01-2013 at 18:35.
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13-01-2013, 18:35   #12
 
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Undoubtedly the forecast is risky but a lot of people are confused about next week.
No, they are not, but what I think is confusing is the now ridiculous amount of winter threads that are opened at this point. It is hard to know which one to click. Not going to say you are wrong on calling this, but I really think a thread such as this should not be opened this early, especially considering that this potential is already being discussed in just one of the many other similar threads opened.
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13-01-2013, 18:42   #13
Oarrack Bama
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Not going to say you are wrong on calling this, but I really think a thread such as this should not be opened this early,

How early do you think is reasonable? We are talking 60 hrs out here. Cross model agreement. GFS/UKMO/ECM all agree at this range.

All I am doing is trying to make it easy for those who can't read the charts or who just go blank when they read the model thread because they understandably don't understand. What is wrong with that? I think most would appreciate it tbh.

Can we keep this thread for Tuesday? You needn't help or contribute if you don't want to. I will do it myself.

Last edited by Oarrack Bama; 13-01-2013 at 18:44.
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13-01-2013, 18:43   #14
Mr Bumble
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One ramping, one model and one specific would seem like the right mix...bit of mod weeding would fix it...
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13-01-2013, 18:45   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Deep Easterly View Post

No, they are not, but what I think is confusing is the now ridiculous amount of winter threads that are opened at this point. It is hard to know which one to click. Not going to say you are wrong on calling this, but I really think a thread such as this should not be opened this early, especially considering that this potential is already being discussed in just one of the many other similar threads opened.
+1. Its become ridiculous, there weren't this many threads for the big events in recent years and for me there is a massive doubt that anywhere but high level areas will see snow in the next 6 days before the atlantic comes in. event thread for a probable non-event
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