Snow risk Tuesday night in to Wednesday in the midlands and possibly the east

Deep Easterly

whitebriar wrote: »

The antagonisers posting should really get a life or just relax,there's no need to be aiming fire at the op,making an effort at his hobby :mad:

We are all hobbyists here so don't really get that point, but from a hobbyist point of view I think this forum is becoming messy with the amount of similar related threads open. It is confusing, especially for new members and those who just want to get a quick forecast.

Eastcoastryan

Met Eireann seem to think there is a fair chance of snow on Wednesday so I think the OP should be cut some slack here. I think the only thing that is missing is the word "potential" in the title.

Edit: I just noticed the word "risk" in the title. Evelyn said this week would be tricky and wintry!

maquiladora

Haven't been reading this thread.

Just thought I'd put this in here from the TV forecast tonight.

BEASTERLY

maquiladora wrote: »

Haven't been reading this thread.

Just thought I'd be this in here from the TV forecast tonight.

Yep the potential is there. If the 12z GFS and UKMO verified it wouldnt happen. On the other hand that output will change. So im not dismissive of the idea but i think based on this afternoon's output that the op's forecast is very premature.

leahyl

Epic forecast from Evelyn I have to say!

omicron

Eastcoastryan wrote: »

Met Eireann seem to think there is a fair chance of snow on Wednesday so I think the OP should be cut some slack here. I think the only thing that is missing is the word "potential" in the title.

Edit: I just noticed the word "risk" in the title. Evelyn said this week would be tricky and wintry!

Risk wasn't in it originally.

Again agree with Beasterly, a change in the current output could make this event happen.

dsaint1

Eastcoastryan wrote: »

Met Eireann seem to think there is a fair chance of snow on Wednesday so I think the OP should be cut some slack here. I think the only thing that is missing is the word "potential" in the title.

Edit: I just noticed the word "risk" in the title. Evelyn said this week would be tricky and wintry!

The word "possibly" is also in the title!

mickger844posts

Excellent forecast from Evelyn explaining the Battleground set up and uncertainty in forecasting the week ahead. Maybe for once we will be on the right side of the front

Oarrack Bama

omicron wrote: »

Again agree with Beasterly, a change in the current output could make this event happen.

So either way i'm wrong with you:rolleyes:

The forecast is fine. It reflects the charts as they are and some intuition. Perfectly happy with it.

BEASTERLY

Oarrack Bama wrote: »

So either way i'm wrong with you:rolleyes:

The forecast is fine. It reflects the charts as they are and some intuition. Perfectly happy with it.

Can you explain this please? Maritime airmass. No cold pool. We'll need atleast -7 850 hpa temps to account for this. Current output doesn't even show -4 covering half the country. Current output shows the 528 dam line 200 miles east at the key time frame. Given the airmass and lack of a cold pool, we'll need 524 or lower. Current output shows temps and dewpoints a couple of degrees above zero. That's what the current output shows. What other variable are balancing these off to make conditions favorable for snow.

Hopefully this conversation will be irrelevant after the 18z, with favourable conditions even reaching Cork! :O

BEASTERLY

Well the 18z is a downgrade. Im sorry. IF this run verified, this event will not happen, no maybe about it!

Eastcoastryan

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Well the 18z is a downgrade. Im sorry. IF this run verified, this event will not happen, no maybe about it!

Correct me if I'm wrong but does the next frame not show the cold air pushing the mild air back further west??

cherryghost

I have to tend to agree with DE and Beasterly to name a few, we're not even near the magic 528 DAM line at this point. It's over in Wales.

omicron

Oarrack Bama wrote: »

So either way i'm wrong with you:rolleyes:

The forecast is fine. It reflects the charts as they are and some intuition. Perfectly happy with it.

In my opinion, yes your forecast is wrong.


Your OP in no way reflects the charts.



The ECM chart closest to the forecast period shows -4 uppers over most of the country, -6 over the east. Not cold enugh for snow in a maritime air flow.




The 12z GFS at this time shows even warmer uppers, barely -4 in the east.
The 528 dam line for this chart is over Wales - no snow with this air flow.



The UKMO is similar to the ECM in uppers, although the cold recedes eastwards more quickly.




The GEM is similar to the GFS uppers, although the airflow is more southerly. Again, no snow.

So what charts is your forecast based on?


NB, 18z GFS has come out since I started this post, airflow has swung more to the east, but still no change in uppers, -4 won't be enough without a cold pool, barring maybe a few mins of front edge snow.

BEASTERLY

Eastcoastryan wrote: »

Correct me if I'm wrong but does the next frame not show the cold air pushing the mild air back further west??

No, the cold retreats back a small bit.

muckisluck

Eastcoastryan wrote: »

Correct me if I'm wrong but does the next frame not show the cold air pushing the mild air back further west??

Don't worry . Around here you'll be corrected very promptly without asking:)

omicron

muckisluck wrote: »

Don't worry . Around here you'll be corrected very promptly without asking:)

Would you rather a forum where anyone could post any claim they wanted without question? I'm no expert, and personally welcome anyone pointing out if I'm wrong, as long as there is evidence, as this can help me and anyone else who reads it to improve their knowledge. No one can learn if they can't see their own and other peoples mistakes.

Villain

Arguing about a forecast more than +24 is a bit pointless really, the 18z is moving things a bit further East i.e. downgrade but we could see upgrades yet. There is a risk or potential depending on how you look at it. The ops forecast is already outdated now with new information available so maybe rather than question and argue post an alternative?

Senna

Anyone want to speculate on the probability of snow in London in the coming days?

FWVT

Senna wrote: »

Anyone want to speculate on the probability of snow in London in the coming days?

Nope

BEASTERLY

muckisluck wrote: »

Don't worry . Around here you'll be corrected very promptly without asking:)

A ridiculous post. Not made any less sinister with the use of a smiley face. This is the type of post and attitude that has caused a few of our best contributors to leave. I may seem a little blunt but to be honest I don't care who I offend or please with my posts. Nor should I or anybody else. I'm playing the posts not the poster.

Gonzo

Sky News mentioned that the UK Met Office has just raised the alarm to Stage 3 which is one step below a National Emergency with severe snow and blizzard conditions 90% likely over many parts of the UK over the next 4 to 5 days. It's looking increasingly like Game Over for the whole of Ireland, except maybe higher elevations. This could be a hard week to swallow for many of us here looking on at the winter wonderland that many central and eastern UK regions will enjoy very soon.

Scubadevils

Gonzo wrote: »

Sky News mentioned that the UK Met Office has just raised the alarm to Stage 3 which is one step below a National Emergency with severe snow and blizzard conditions 90% likely over many parts of the UK over the next 4 to 5 days. It's looking increasingly like Game Over for the whole of Ireland, except maybe higher elevations.

Feckers! I know most in the UK won't take that view but I can only imagine the excitement here if we were faced with a national emergency due to potential snow! - much and all as that doesn't really make sense...

Senna

FWVT wrote: »

Nope

Nope "i don't want to speculate" or nope "no snow"?

drquirky

Scubadevils wrote: »

Feckers! I know most in the UK won't take that view but I can only imagine the excitement here if we were faced with a national emergency due to potential snow! - much and all as that doesn't really make sense...

My models are showing a slight push front stalling over Greenland at 5468 thz this should swing towards Ireland and has the potential to deliver up to a foot of snow probably Wednesday. That's my forecast and I'm sticking to it!

Oarrack Bama

Villain wrote: »

Arguing about a forecast more than +24 is a bit pointless really, the 18z is moving things a bit further East i.e. downgrade but we could see upgrades yet. There is a risk or potential depending on how you look at it. The ops forecast is already outdated now with new information available so maybe rather than question and argue post an alternative?

No need to change the op atm. It reflects cross model agreement of the risk. If there is a significant change tomorrow obviously I will change it. It's fine for the moment though.

ninebeanrows

Gonzo wrote: »

Sky News mentioned that the UK Met Office has just raised the alarm to Stage 3 which is one step below a National Emergency with severe snow and blizzard conditions 90% likely over many parts of the UK over the next 4 to 5 days. It's looking increasingly like Game Over for the whole of Ireland, except maybe higher elevations.

What a crazy and stupid comment based on nothing.

The 18z which isn't great and the UKM is still better gives the east and north snow.

60hrs

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013011318/gfs-2-60.png?18?18

66hrs



http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013011318/gfs-2-72.png?18?18

Then a little later with another Atlantic attack..

108hrs



114hrs

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013011318/gfs-2-114.png?18?18


Now recall that the UKM model has this all pushed further west with the cold incursion greater and MUCH greater past 120hrs..

So your comment really lacks any support.

Slashermcguirk

People talking here as if it will be a huge shock if it snows. Its not like it hasn't snowed in Ireland in recent times. Snowed this morning for example (though very briefly and very little but still did despite not being forecast). It was freezing and snowed several times in January 2010. It snowed almost non stop from end November to end December 2010. Temperatures fell around the country to -17 if i remember correctly around Carlow. I know this was very unusual but it still happened for weeks in a row.

It really wouldn't be that huge a surprise if it snowed this week, Irish winters seem to have become much colder in recent years. I don't know why people seem to think that a snow event would be so extraordinary in Ireland since it has happened in two of the last three winters. Also why must people continue to exaggerate about the snow that falls in the UK compared to Ireland. Constant mentions of us missing out and UK getting buried again. It does not snow in the UK often, just like it doesn't snow that often here. Yes Scotland sees a lot more than us but London for example sees very similar amounts to Dublin. Winter temperatures in London are also nearly always identical to those of Dublin.

Hopefully we will all see a bit of the white stuff but i for one would hardly be shocked if it did happen.

omicron

BEASTERLY wrote: »

A ridiculous post. Not made any less sinister with the use of a smiley face. This is the type of post and attitude that has caused a few of our best contributors to leave. I may seem a little blunt but to be honest I don't care who I offend or please with my posts. Nor should I or anybody else. I'm playing the posts not the poster.

Left twice before but winter charts keep bringing me back! :P

Senna wrote: »

Nope "i don't want to speculate" or nope "no snow"?

Snow is pretty likely over the next few days in eastern England, if you want regular updates, M.T. does a British forecasts section in his thread at the top of the forum, updated every morning.

Villain

BEASTERLY wrote: »

This is the type of post and attitude that has caused a few of our best contributors to leave.

You know well there were many reasons why these so called best contributors left, one being they have other places to post.

Why you and others get so worked up about someone's forecast is beyond me especially in this scenario where there is huge uncertainty.