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20-09-2012, 00:11   #1
Redsunset
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*** Heavy Rain and High Winds for many as Storm approaches(Mon 24th - Tues 25th Sept)

Currently this thread is to watch the development of a weather system expected to come up from the Bay of Biscay and being a potential troublemaker.

There are No warnings and was only briefly mentioned tonight by Met Éireann's Jean Byrne as being a danger but not a cert by any means yet.

Here's a GIF I made and we can then compare later of how right or wrong the current forecasted track.



M.T's thoughts.
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Last edited by Sleety_Rain; 27-09-2012 at 10:51.
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20-09-2012, 11:45   #2
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Doesn't look too severe in terms of wind, on the GFS. Max gusts of about 30-40 mph on the coasts. I don't think we'll be seeing hurricane stories in the media this time.

The low does look like it wants to hang around doing a few loops though, which could dump quite a bit of rain somewhere.

6pm Sunday:


6am Monday:


6pm Monday:


6am Tuesday:


6pm Tuesday:


6am Wednesday:

Last edited by maquiladora; 20-09-2012 at 11:50.
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20-09-2012, 13:23   #3
 
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Possibility of a muck bath for the Ploughing championship next week then!

Just imagine over 150,000 people expected and then a possibility of 30 - 50mm of rain and wind to blow your cap off.

Anyway back on topic
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20-09-2012, 19:20   #4
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Was mentioned on the forecast after the news,they aren't sure of the track.Jean Byrne said it may hit us or veer off through Southern England.Don't want it so let it head East.
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20-09-2012, 20:22   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zerks View Post
Was mentioned on the forecast after the news,they aren't sure of the track.Jean Byrne said it may hit us or veer off through Southern England.Don't want it so let it head East.
Yeah there is a huge difference at 96 hours on the global models. The GFS and ECM have it over UK/Ireland at that time while the UKMO and GEM have it over Germany, and the NOGAPS doesn't develop it at all. Unusual to see such a wide difference at that timescale.

Edit : Haha, did I put that thumbs down icon in this post or did someone not like it?

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20-09-2012, 22:46   #6
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Some Met Office thoughts.But nothing conclusive yet.

Last edited by Redsunset; 22-09-2012 at 12:34.
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20-09-2012, 22:53   #7
 
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18Z GFS run coming out at the moment. At least for Sunday the rain appears to be missing Ireland to the South unlike the 12Z. Following the 12Z UKMO a bit it seems.
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20-09-2012, 23:06   #8
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I'd say ECM will eventually fall into line very soon with the other models as they drag system further south and east away from us. However it would be a good victory for ECM if it stays stubborn and is proven correct.
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20-09-2012, 23:14   #9
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Huge change on the 18Z GFS. It is now more in line with the UKMO and GEM. Ireland doesn't get impact at all from this low now as it heads much further east and much weaker.

We do get some rain from another system coming down from Iceland later though.

Edit: I see Spawn of Nadine Part 2 at 150 hours? Haha



Probably will be gone on the next run.

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20-09-2012, 23:46   #10
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Yeah seen Joe Bastardi tweets today. Being dramatic as usual.

Nadine to slam Iberian peninsula middle of next week then turn north through western Europe.

Nadine: hits Portugal then turns north on the GFS through western Europe all the way to UK.. Anarchy in the UK weather pattern!
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21-09-2012, 00:18   #11
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And Met Eireann's 2300 update....Saturday night will remain dry over much of the country, but rain will spread into south Munster and south Leinster late in the night. The rain will become widespread and heavy during Sunday across Munster, Leinster and east Ulster but amounts will be small further west where it'll stay mostly dry. It'll be mild in a fresh northeast breeze. Monday will be a mostly cloudy day with further outbreaks of rain across Ulster and Leinster, while other areas will have sunny breaks and occasional showers. Northwest winds will be fresh and blustery. It'll stay cool, very changeable and unsettled for both Tuesday and Wednesday as an extensive low pressure area predominates over Ireland. Showers will be widespread and heavy with some prolonged, along with possible hail and thunder. Strong gusty southwest winds on Tuesday will turn to an east or northeast direction for Wednesday. Thursday will be a brighter and mostly dry day with lighter winds. The latter part of the week will be mostly dry also as winds swing to the northwest. However eastern counties will have showers on occasions, and overall temperatures will be below normal.
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21-09-2012, 00:24   #12
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Interesting that NOAA still tracking low towards us in latest report.

The plot thickens. Until the next run at last.

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21-09-2012, 00:42   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Redsunset View Post
Interesting that NOAA still tracking low towards us in latest report.

The plot thickens. Until the next run at last.

Probably based on the 12Z GFS.

I think we'll have a clearer picture in the morning after the 0Z runs.
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21-09-2012, 08:35   #14
 
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A divergence again it seems between the 0z GFS and 0z UKMO. UKMO still has the rain passing to the south of Ireland on Sunday evening while the GFS has rain spreading into the south and east.

7:55am forecast on Radio 1 this morning following the GFS line it would appear.
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21-09-2012, 09:34   #15
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Some pretty intense precip coming if the GFS is to be correct.

Could be severe flood risk for the north and east if things move in that direction.
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