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23-12-2010, 04:50   #1
darkman2
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Less cold...then colder again

The models are firming up on the situation now (00z). We know it will be less cold (but not mild) for 2, maybe 3 days, from St Stephen's day but it will turn colder as a Scandinavian high pressure builds initiating continental winds. So a partial thaw (complete on windward coasts) will occur. Temperatures will reach 2 - 7c during the milder spell in brisk southerly winds. A band of rain preceded by snow and freezing rain will cross the country later on the 26th from the west. More later...

Last edited by darkman2; 23-12-2010 at 04:54.
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23-12-2010, 14:57   #2
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I know it's a bit early to tell but is there a chance that we might experience the same extreme temperatures we have had during this cold spell?
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24-12-2010, 01:50   #3
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Not atm. The flow will go continental and therefore colder esspecially at night however it depends on the source of the wind. ATM it appears a slack Southeasterly is likely which would not be as cold (but would be cold at night) because it may be sourced in the Med. Not certain by any means. We will have a much better idea by Sunday. Models all over the place post 96hrs atm.


I don't think a complete thaw will occur in inland parts or on high ground before the next cold snap. That's just my opinion.


Something like this




And when we have high pressure over us the most likely outcome is retrogression (pushing back or northwest of high pressure) into Greenland at some point allowing in much colder Northerly winds.

Last edited by darkman2; 24-12-2010 at 02:03.
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24-12-2010, 04:26   #4
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00z shows exactly what I am talking about - high being pulled west - low pressure attempting to undercut.




This is the most likely outcome. Very cold once this process completes - a matter of days. Low pressure deep in the Atlantic will steer warm Atlantic air toward Greenland which makes high pressure condusive there...which means cold for us.

Last edited by darkman2; 24-12-2010 at 04:48.
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24-12-2010, 15:25   #5
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Met Eireann were showing high pressure moving over us from the west around the 29th Dec yesterday with Atlantic air circulating around it giving us temperatures of around 6 or 7 degrees. Would i be correct in saying that if this high pressure moves to the Northwest it would allow very cold Northerlies to develop over Ireland and isn't that what happened to open the flood gates for Artic air to spread down over Ireland creating this current cold snap.
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24-12-2010, 15:50   #6
 
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lets hope its grand and mild for new years, heading to the west, dont want any snow until the 2nd
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24-12-2010, 16:47   #7
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12z UKMO going for a cold continental Southeasterly flow by the 30th. That will drag in surface cold from the continent. Temperatures would be in low single figures again and it would be cold at night with frosts.
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24-12-2010, 16:59   #8
 
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We have only seen the tip of this cold winter. I fear there is much much worse to come. The way the models are at the moment, and how accurrate some forecasters have been so far. Any cold that goes into europe and any under cutting , we on the east coast could see more high snow falls. Now we have the siberian high coming into play. Pushing west to combine with the green land high, christ we are in for some serious cold ARTIC weather.
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24-12-2010, 17:27   #9
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We have only seen the tip of this cold winter. I fear there is much much worse to come. The way the models are at the moment, and how accurrate some forecasters have been so far. Any cold that goes into europe and any under cutting , we on the east coast could see more high snow falls. Now we have the siberian high coming into play. Pushing west to combine with the green land high, christ we are in for some serious cold ARTIC weather.
I don't think I can hack anymore of this weather, and I love the snow, but jeez, it's doing my head in now.
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24-12-2010, 17:36   #10
 
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I don't think I can hack anymore of this weather, and I love the snow, but jeez, it's doing my head in now.
Expect this to become our future winter norm
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25-12-2010, 15:42   #11
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Happy Christmas everyone (Turkey was lovely!)



Anyway - oh yeah it's on again. Very cold weather due to return before the New Year. Increasingly the models are trending towards an outcome that seems inevitable as we begin 2011. Firstly a cold continental easterly flow will become established toward the second part of next week bringing surface cold and harsh frosts. This should then be replaced by a North or Northeasterly later so frost, ice and snow should return quite quickly after a brief milder interuption but the timing of this evolution is uncertain. Right now I reckon this could evolve before the new year.

On another note tomorrow will be hazardous for driving when freezing rain crosses the country tomorrow afternoon. The rain will form a film on top of ice. Walking will be treacherous aswell. Best advice is just not to go out really. Another extremely cold night tonight but the last cold night for a few days at least.
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25-12-2010, 16:26   #12
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Happy Christmas everyone (Turkey was lovely!)



Anyway - oh yeah it's on again. Very cold weather due to return before the New Year. Increasingly the models are trending towards an outcome that seems inevitable as we begin 2011. Firstly a cold continental easterly flow will become established toward the second part of next week bringing surface cold and harsh frosts. This should then be replaced by a North or Northeasterly later so frost, ice and snow should return quite quickly after a brief milder interuption but the timing of this evolution is uncertain. Right now I reckon this could evolve before the new year.

On another note tomorrow will be hazardous for driving when freezing rain crosses the country tomorrow afternoon. The rain will form a film on top of ice. Walking will be treacherous aswell. Best advice is just not to go out really. Another extremely cold night tonight but the last cold night for a few days at least.
I am pondering Christmas Day mad theory.

I have noticed with every run the slight decreasing of the breakdown.

The cold is now lasting right up until tomorrow night and the chances of snow in the northeast seem to be increasing.

I still think there is a 2% chance of the unthinkable happening.

The UKMO is a stunning output in the long term.
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25-12-2010, 16:49   #13
darkman2
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I am pondering Christmas Day mad theory.

I have noticed with every run the slight decreasing of the breakdown.

The cold is now lasting right up until tomorrow night and the chances of snow in the northeast seem to be increasing.

I still think there is a 2% chance of the unthinkable happening.

The UKMO is a stunning output in the long term.



I highly doubt it will snow tomorrow except maybe the far North East for a while though short term supprises have happened many times in the past. Warmer upper air rifles in too quickly. UKMO 12z is increasingly cold and very interesting by 144hrs (31st) with a Northerly almost ready to go but id prefer to see the High pressure a little further west. I this scenario we could also see high pressure topple into Scandinavia opening the bitter Easterly floodgates. ECM will be interesting later.



GME has an even faster evolution


Last edited by darkman2; 25-12-2010 at 17:01.
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25-12-2010, 17:05   #14
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Well i actually would not be surprized to see some snow initially tomorrow before extreamly dangerous condition occur underfoot due to freezing rain.I really hope people don't shrug off these warnings.Tis a very real situation and not to be taken lightly.Anyway here's HIRLAM 850 temps for tomorrow night showing somewhat cold uppers hanging on for dear life.

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25-12-2010, 17:19   #15
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Well i actually would not be surprized to see some snow initially tomorrow before extreamly dangerous condition occur underfoot due to freezing rain.I really hope people don't shrug off these warnings.Tis a very real situation and not to be taken lightly.Anyway here's HIRLAM 850 temps for tomorrow night showing somewhat cold uppers hanging on for dear life.

In this situation the 0c 850hpa isotherm will be the most critical.

It can snow right up to say 850hpa at -1c in this situation
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