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Less cold...then colder again
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Which is what i suggested two days ago. The Atlantic will win this minor battle.
While tonight's runs are showing the cold snap being brief they show the high sinking over us again(bringing mild air), so the Atlantic 'winning'(as in a train of lows) looks like being very unlikely TBH, high pressure will win this battle while the Atlantic doesn't even make a feeble attempt going by tonight's ECM.
Also major stratospheric warming event is taking place atm and is forecasted to intensify, expect the AO and NAO to go into extreme negative territory over the next few weeks. Looks like the atlantic may not be back with a vengeance anytime soon. Lets just hope blocking sets up in the right spots to give us a december 2010 type event
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06Z GFS
Operational run has very good ensemble support on a colder spell starting on Jan 1. Pretty much all ensemble members showing -5 or colder upper temps for Dublin by Jan 3. Mean looks to be about -7.
From around Jan 5 then, as you'd expect, a lot of uncertainty. The op run wants to keep things very cold in FI, hugging the -10 line with no let up in sight, but it doesn't have much support from the ensembles. Still though, from Jan 1 onwards the mean never gets back to how mild it is now, staying below positive almost all the time.
No Atlantic blowtorch from the GFS this morning.0 -
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Hi I am from Meath and have only recently become very interested in this cold we have been experiencing. I have no idea how to read these charts but find all the comments so interesting. In fact I would go as far as to say I have become somewhat obsessed with the weather lately
Is there any chance we will see again what happened late November / early December in Meath. Never seen so much snow in Meath and have lived here for 10 years.:) 0 -
Absolutely pointless & silly to ponder over exact locations where snow may fall and if upper air temps will be marginal or not when you are looking at charts 144+ hours away that are going to be different, perhaps massively, by the time we get there. Thats without even taking consideration potential for events like polar lows that the models might miss entirely anyway....
FI was about 48 hours at times during the last cold spell remember!
I think the important thing to focus on is the trend rather than anything else at this stage...
*Has visions of posts like 'Hey, you experts told me it was going to snow in X last week but I'm getting nothing?'* 0 -
There would be all sorts of mesoscale features in such a flow. In fact there is prolonged snow across the country at 216hrs. It's no good looking at potential upper temperatures at this point or preciptation potential. The overall trend synoptically is back towards much colder weather towards the middle of next week with frost, ice and snow returning. In what quantities we don't know yet but there is a good chance of a 3rd severe cold period of the Winter. Really from Saturday we are on the downward slope in terms of temperature.
Hey Darkman2,
I am going on my gut feeling here, however I think the novelty of snow has now gone for most people and if we enter a third severe cold spell with more snow, the majority of sound minded people will lose their f**king reason!
Do you honestly think there is a good chance of snow coming back to these shores?0 -
The discussion is only on potential on a chart this far out,thats all it ever is and theres no doubt that in a northwesterly,the greatest potential for precipitaion is the west from Donegal down to mainly west cork including at times the city.maquiladora wrote: »Absolutely pointless & silly to ponder over exact locations where snow may fall and if upper air temps will be marginal or not when you are looking at charts 144+ hours away that are going to be different, perhaps massively, by the time we get there. Thats without even taking consideration potential for events like polar lows that the models might miss entirely anyway....
FI was about 48 hours at times during the last cold spell remember!
I think the important thing to focus on is the trend rather than anything else at this stage...
*Has visions of posts like 'Hey, you experts told me it was going to snow in X last week but I'm getting nothing?'*
The northwesterly at the start of our last cold spell is a prime example-who got the snow then,remind me please?
Not a whole lot south of Louth or East of the midlands or in the southeast anyway or Dublin.
Other areas can get the left overs or a smaller percentage of what the west gets depending on features that develop but as for convection,this has been proven in a nw flow not to survive too well travelling over the eventually chilly land mass of Ireland.
So excitement for the west in that ecm trend should it verify anything like that and potentially a dry cold major disappointment for the east and south east or relatively so.
More marginality this time too as atlantic convection needs much deeper cold and this for now looks to be less cold than our previos shot from that direction.
Ergo disappointment and sleety rain on coasts in the west and southwest too,I would think with the limited information we have to go on at this stage.
All this could change of course.0 -
Hey Darkman2,
I am going on my gut feeling here, however I think the novelty of snow has now gone for most people and if we enter a third severe cold spell with more snow, the majority of sound minded people will lose their f**king reason!
Do you honestly think there is a good chance of snow coming back to these shores?
We wont be able to tell that until 5-7 days time.
But remember M.T said this was coming back before christmas, long before the models hinted at it, but we mere mortals wont know till a weeks time about snowfall amounts and location. Meanwhile the stratospheric warming continues to intensify, this may lead to major northern blocking in a few weeks time.
Yesterday i posted about the AO going staying very negative due to the strat warming event, and look, GFS thinks so too:
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maquiladora wrote: »Absolutely pointless & silly to ponder over exact locations where snow may fall
Question:
But I will have to go to *insert random, pointless event* on *insert date one week out* in *insert random location* and I'm terrified of driving in the snow, should I cancel and stay at home?
Answer:
Yes, absolutely 0 -
We wont be able to tell that until 5-7 days time.
But remember M.T said this was coming back before christmas, long before the models hinted at it, but we mere mortals wont know till a weeks time about snowfall amounts and location. Meanwhile the stratospheric warming continues to intensify, this may lead to major northern blocking in a few weeks time.
Yesterday i posted about the AO going staying very negative due to the strat warming event, and look, GFS thinks so too:
Thanks for the clarification Beasterly. I think we could all do with a decent break from that awful cold weather we have had (I mean a few weeks break at this stage). Hopefully the models will tend to a milder scenario. However, I doubt it. My fear is that with the end of November and all of December being so cold in Ireland, we will be in for it for January and February. These are after all our coldest months so I have no doubt there will be more snow for Ireland during the rest of the winter :eek:0 -
Hey Darkman2,
I am going on my gut feeling here, however I think the novelty of snow has now gone for most people and if we enter a third severe cold spell with more snow, the majority of sound minded people will lose their f**king reason!
Do you honestly think there is a good chance of snow coming back to these shores?
Yes. A good chance. Cannot be specific yet on precisely timing or locations but from midweek next week is a good bet.0 -
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