Less cold...then colder again

Elmer Blooker

Theres no sign of any cold in the forseeable future, a big anticyclone in the vicinity of Ireland at this time year can only mean gloom and overcast skies.
Remember the big anticyclone of around 1040mbs on top of us about two weeks ago? ME forecasted temps of -5 at night, I predicted temps of +5 under a blanket of cloud. I was right they were wrong- by about 10c!
Cloud and gloom for the remainder of 2010 unfortunately.

thetonynator

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Theres no sign of any cold in the forseeable future, a big anticyclone in the vicinity of Ireland at this time year can only mean gloom and overcast skies.
Remember the big anticyclone of around 1040mbs on top of us about two weeks ago? ME forecasted temps of -5 at night, I predicted temps of +5 under a blanket of cloud. I was right they were wrong- by about 10c!
Cloud and gloom for the remainder of 2010 unfortunately.

We had sub zero temps every night during that time.

maquiladora

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Cloud and gloom for the remainder of 2010 unfortunately.

Probably. But since it's less than a week until 2011 it's hardly a big deal.

Birdnuts

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Theres no sign of any cold in the forseeable future, a big anticyclone in the vicinity of Ireland at this time year can only mean gloom and overcast skies.
Remember the big anticyclone of around 1040mbs on top of us about two weeks ago? ME forecasted temps of -5 at night, I predicted temps of +5 under a blanket of cloud. I was right they were wrong- by about 10c!
Cloud and gloom for the remainder of 2010 unfortunately.

Yep - the outlook for at least the next 7 days is dull in every sense of the word:(

darkman2

This thread forcast is completely on track. Anyone who wants to disagree then please go ahead and prove your forcast. But as of now it is exactly as in the OP. And getting much colder later in the period just after New Year. This is of course backed by the models. One only has to look at the latest UKMO output to see this is entirely appropriate as a forcast.

mike65

Dunno how you arrive at that conclusion, certainly using the charts above. The high presure will stay to the south of Ireland drifting further south feeding air around its western flank - ergo average temps for January.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/ani/gfsx/

Pangea

This is exciting to read, certainly BBC expecting an onslaught of the wintry weather to return to the shores ,which boades well for the Emerald Isle.

BBC Monthly Outlook
Published at 10:00, 27 December

(Next update at 10:00, 3 January 2011)

Written by Peter Gibbs
Summary
It's a breakthrough, but not for long.

At 7am on Boxing Day morning the temperature at Castlederg in Northern Ireland crept above freezing, for the first time since the 17th of December.

Milder air was at last breaking through from the Atlantic, but as usual the transition was a messy one. After such a prolonged cold spell, a dangerous mix of rain, sleet, snow and ice spread erratically eastwards across the UK.

The signs are that milder weather will be relatively short-lived as the blocking weather pattern reasserts itself.

Without any change of airmass, any input of warmth from the feeble winter sun is more than offset by cooling during the long nights. The net effect is that temperatures continue to fall. As a result, January 2011 looks set to be another cold month.

Monday 27 December 2010 to Sunday 2 January 2011
Quiet start to the New Year

Once the milder Atlantic air is in place there will be a slow but steady thaw of the lying snow right across the UK.

Frost-free nights will be a novelty, but the combination of mild, moist air sitting over cold ground always leads to disappointingly grey, dank weather.

A brief spell of easterly winds later in the week gives a hint of what's in store for the New Year weekend, as temperatures begin to ease downwards once again. However, there's little sign of any disruptive weather for New Year revellers or travellers.

Monday 3 January 2011 to Sunday 9 January 2011
Chilly but dry

High pressure is expected to continue to dominate the weather across the UK.

Temperatures will once again fall below average during the first full week of the New Year. Largely dry but cold conditions then look set to persist until the end of the period, but with occasional rain or snow showers affecting some northeastern parts at times.

Frost and icy stretches remain a risk across all parts.

Monday 10 January 2011 to Sunday 23 January 2011
Cold and colder

The cold weather looks set to continue across the UK, with particularly low temperatures likely across central parts. This gives a continuing risk of widespread sharp frosts overnight for most regions, with daytime temperatures only a little above freezing.

Sunshine and precipitation amounts look set to be around average for mid-January, but given the continuing low temperatures, it is likely that some places will see further snow.
Next week

Is there no end to the cold snap? Find out next week

mike65

Pangea wrote: »

Is there no end to the cold snap? Find out next week

Hmmm a bit of a contradiction!

You have to be careful about transposing weather that Britain gets to Ireland. For example the east of England usually has warmer/drier summers, the same areas can have colder winter temps.

Pangea

mike65 wrote: »

You have to be careful about transposing weather that Britain gets to Ireland. For example the east of England usually has warmer/drier summers, the same areas can have colder winter temps.

Pangea wrote: »

,which boades well for the Emerald Isle.

The Uk forecast covers the North Of Ireland, Castlederg was even mentioned there, If the arctic weather is in the UK then its a general indication of what things will be like in Ireland.

isle of man

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8KTvPd9mJtU&feature=player_embedded#!

lets hope we get what the USA is getting.




http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y2_rQoCZrO4&feature=player_embedded

epic snow

mike65

The number of snow/cold weather porn weirdos who lurk on this on this board is remarkable!

opinion guy

mike65 wrote: »

The number of snow/cold weather porn weirdos who lurk on this on this board is remarkable!

Shut it hot weather fetish boy!! you make me sick!!

:P

darkman2

mike65 wrote: »

Dunno how you arrive at that conclusion, certainly using the charts above. The high presure will stay to the south of Ireland drifting further south feeding air around its western flank - ergo average temps for January.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/ani/gfsx/

It's a process. It's about trends not what a particular chart shows a week away. They are always changing. If you look at it and take the charts at face value then it's fairly average looking. However if you know about typical trends and evolutions of particular setups from observing them over the years on the models then it's easier to determine what is likely to happen. It is almost a subconcious thing to simply disregard charts more then, say, 96 hrs out and look at overall trends instead. In this case the most likely scenario is a retrograding high pulling Northwest at some point. It may not happen this week or the week after but chances are it will happen. And on this mornings runs we are very close now. We don't quite get there yet but we are getting there. It's hard to explain what im getting at. Im just trying to get my thinking across when I look at all the charts.

But here is what I mean when I say we are very close to another very cold evolution. It's the 120 - 144hr range that is crucial.

ECM - Almost. the trend is to put the high pressure further and further west with each run. In this case the cold is into the North Sea. Compared to yesterday much better if you like cold weather!



UKMO - Almost perfect evolution for cold in Ireland as a block developes to the North with undercutting Low pressure to the East and Southwest. Most likely outcome a Northeasterly wind although I don't know how far South the center of the low pressure would get.




GFS again evolving towards cold but like the ECM putting it into the North Sea and the continent.



So not there yet but getting there!;)

MUSEIST

mike65 wrote: »

The number of snow/cold weather porn weirdos who lurk on this on this board is remarkable!

:rolleyes:

Nothing wrong with a bit of snow weather porn.

Whats your obsession with mild, grey, cloudy depressing muck:p

H2UMrsRobinson

mike65 wrote: »

The number of snow/cold weather porn weirdos who lurk on this on this board is remarkable!

Yeah, what's your point ?

isle of man

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2010/dec/26/freezing-weather-set-to-return

not sure how much credit this is.

but its a ramp so i like it

Wine Goddess

Extreme weather (in our case snow) gets people excited....
Me for a start, and lots of others as can be seen on the over 1 million views on the snow forum.

Mild grey dank depressing windy weather is an everyday and therefore boring occurrence........if we were in India it might be a little more exciting!


personally I miss seeing snow fall from the sky the beauty of it the silence of it.......

However I think everyone adapted to the conditions as best they couod and so we got through it as best we could....

We had a family member missing on Christmas Day as did lots of other families BUT no-one died and we will see each other again, it has just taken a bit of getting used to.......

No-one can control the weather so best to make the most of whatever somes and enjoy it.

OK philosophy over. Time to have a tipple and a mince pie

opinion guy

Have to say the weather has gotten more interesting. It used to be just gray gray gray and basically only two seasons - warm gray and cold gray. Now its all seasonal and extreme and ****!!!

YEAAAA EXTREMMMEMEEEEEEEE WEATHER!!!!!! YEAH PEPSI!!!!!

Somebody high five me quick!!!

isle of man

opinion guy wrote: »

Have to say the weather has gotten more interesting. It used to be just gray gray gray and basically only two seasons - warm gray and cold gray. Now its all seasonal and extreme and ****!!!

YEAAAA EXTREMMMEMEEEEEEEE WEATHER!!!!!! YEAH PEPSI!!!!!

Somebody high five me quick!!!

qucik somebody take the sweets of this person, suger rush

Wine Goddess

opinion guy wrote: »

Have to say the weather has gotten more interesting. It used to be just gray gray gray and basically only two seasons - warm gray and cold gray. Now its all seasonal and extreme and ****!!!

YEAAAA EXTREMMMEMEEEEEEEE WEATHER!!!!!! YEAH PEPSI!!!!!

Somebody high five me quick!!!

HIGH FIVE!!!
HIGH SIX!!
HIGH SEVEN!!!!
Oops too much P****i!:D

Min

Look at the radar, some extreme weather coming in over the south west...cue weather enthusiasts going crazy.

ok, I think some get excited by snow because they don't get it every winter. I have never known a winter without snow, I don't get excited by it.
It just means longer working hours as everything is slowed down and then worse is the ice which can stop the water...lets get excited by that...not for me.

I do think the radar looks exciting at the moment...

TheMilkyPirate

mike65 wrote: »

The number of snow/cold weather porn weirdos who lurk on this on this board is remarkable!

There it is again "weirdos" i suppose this is just another useless attempt at humour from you mike, If you think were all weirdos why do you consistently post here.

thetonynator

:eek:
:eek:
:eek::eek::eek::eek:


:eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek:

Scubadevils

thetonynator wrote: »

:eek:
:eek:
:eek::eek::eek::eek:


:eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek:

Crap the way we never see the like of that when conditions are right for snow - would really love to see a widespread/countrywide event with hours of continuous snowfall, not just localised streamers.

Looks like its on a mission on raintoday...

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

I miss the snow and cold

thetonynator

Scubadevils wrote: »

Crap the way we never see the like of that when conditions are right for snow - would really love to see a widespread/countrywide event with hours of continuous snowfall, not just localised streamers.

Looks like its on a mission on raintoday...

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

I miss the snow and cold

Atlantic precip from the south west is extremely unlikely to fall as sustained snow . .:(

Scubadevils

thetonynator wrote: »

Atlantic precip from the south west is extremely unlikely to fall as sustained snow . .:(

Ah I know - be nice though if it were possible... you just never see something of a organised nature coming in from the North or East like that when conditions are right for snow. Or has there been?

thetonynator

Scubadevils wrote: »

Ah I know - be nice though if it were possible... you just never see something of a organised nature coming in from the North or East like that when conditions are right for snow. Or has there been?

Last thursday week there was supposed to be but it broke up over connacht somewhere.

thetonynator

My cousin in doncaster siad there was 2 hours of snow falling there this morning. No significant accumulations ( although her idea of significant these days means over 1 foot :P) but it was snow. I thought there was a thaw in most parts in england too?

leahyl

thetonynator wrote: »

:eek:
:eek:
:eek::eek::eek::eek:


:eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek:

Yep it's battering off the roof as I write this:rolleyes:...

mike65

baraca wrote: »

There it is again "weirdos" i suppose this is just another useless attempt at humour from you mike, If you think were all weirdos why do you consistently post here.

Don't take things so personaly, if you can't take a bit of ribbing you should not be on the internets.