Less cold...then colder again

darkman2

Very interesting ECM this evening. It delays the arrival of real cold by a day but synoptically is probrably much better in the longer term later next week. So basically 3 different scenarios now. It is not getting any easier!

patneve2

I'm not even taking the ECM into consideration this evening. Has the batch of cold travel westwards. West-ward shifts of cold pools have been a characteristic of the ECM lately (remember the modeling of the last cold spell?)

I'd take it though

That last ecm one being your preferred option for lots of reasons no doubt.
It's very similar to the start of cold spell 2.

Models,they don't have a clue right now do they.
We may aswell wait and see...

nacho libre

they're not impressed with the latest ecm run over on netweather;)

It won't verify like that though so the toys will be back in the pram soon enough

They have a point if those are the uppers.
You'd need to be up on croagh patrick to see snow or better still on the military road somewhere in wicklow near Glenmalure where it goes above 1000ft asl

All theoretical tbh and also another shot over the bow at anyones certainty that severe cold is coming.
Rain and 5c is not my idea of anything severe even if it is preceded by a few hard night frosts.
It's boring cack weather.

BEASTERLY

Deleted User wrote: »

They have a point if those are the uppers.
You'd need to be up on croagh patrick to see snow or better still on the military road somewhere in wicklow near Glenmalure where it goes above 1000ft asl

All theoretical tbh and also another shot over the bow at anyones certainty that severe cold is coming.
Rain and 5c is not my idea of anything severe even if it is preceded by a few hard night frosts.
It's boring cack weather.

850 temps dont suggest 5c and rain

thetonynator

nacho libre wrote: »

they're not impressed with the latest ecm run over on netweather;)

It won't verify like that though so the toys will be back in the pram soon enough

The toys in netweather have been well and truly broken at this stage from being thrown in and out so much . . .:P

BEASTERLY

BEASTERLY wrote: »

850 temps dont suggest 5c and rain

yeah but you need -10 850's with atlantic air for snow at sea level because of the mix/higher dewpoints.

-8 air would be barely good enough with an easterly without substantial surface cold air advection.

None of that in the above chart so 5c and rain I'm afraid away from the top of croagh patrick or the top of the military road.
I'd prefer the latter as ,the jeep has seat heaters...whereas on croagh patrick,I would actually be wet even if it was snowing.

darkman2

darkman2 wrote: »

A very cold spell of weather does not always = lots of snow. There would be very low minimum and maximum temperatures if the GFS run came off as it is (which it won't) and there would be snow for many at various points. UKMO is better if you want cold with more in the way of snow in the shorter term. But it might be short lived if a seperate high pressure cell breaks away South of Greenland. The overall trend has not changed at all.




BB that chart you posted above is much colder then you seem to appreciate. At night pick a number between -5 and -10.

No sign of a decent trend developing in the models towards this longer term cold at all is there?
Look whats happened to your ukmo this morning...

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Deleted User wrote: »

No sign of a decent trend developing in the models towards this longer term cold at all is there?
Look whats happened to your ukmo this morning...

Its a definite wait and see, though it is kinda fun watching the models go back and forth so much !

If we do get a good cold spell its gonna be all the more exciting

Redsunset

Oh im watching and waiting silently too.I think its actually going to be touch and go with this.
And could be around the 8th jan before any real wintryness worth ramping up enters the equation and then again it could be just pityfull.
It is going to get colder but it will take an almighty drive of cold air to give anything like we just seen.Peace.:)

Or it could be next October...

Deep Easterly

ECMWF 00z Ensemble mean 850's temp chart for 168hrs suggesting thst temps at the level will average around -4.0c towards the end of next week:




It is likely that we will be entering a spell of seasonal coolness over the next week or so but in terms of severity I am sceptical, at least for now

darkman2

Deleted User wrote: »

No sign of a decent trend developing in the models towards this longer term cold at all is there?
Look whats happened to your ukmo this morning...

It's a complex evolution with alot of different outcomes possible. I still think a very cold outcome is favoured although delayed by a couple of days. All we need is to be on the right side of the polar front like other models and model runs hint at.










I would not be writing anything off...

And the GFS ensembles favour a cold outcome only distorted by a couple of mild outliers.

darkman2

darkman2 wrote: »

It's a complex evolution with alot of different outcomes possible. I still think a very cold outcome is favoured although delayed by a couple of days. All we need is to be on the right side of the polar front like other models and model runs hint at.

I would not be writing anything off...

Agreed.

My final thoughts on this for now :

Either the models are right or they are wrong.
You deeeeeeeeeeeeeeeecide!

Remember you are talking about 7 days hence so flakey territory anyway.
That said,it would be hard to believe that these models are still in a state of flux as to the current pattern.
They've seen it often enough now at this stage.

Interestingly on that score,if you look at the fax charts,the boys and girls at the UK met office are increasingly deriving their own solutions and not what the models exclusively say.

So while we could easily ride out the rest of this winter avoiding another "severe" cold spell,such avoidance in my opinion itself being a fluke,an unlucky fluke...
We could just as easily enter the freezer at very short notice ie sub 96hrs.

One thing appears certain in this uncertain world DM2 and that is,things are moving slower than you have hoped.
But I've no doubt that I'll be surprised if they don't get there eventually.
I will be.

darkman2

UKMO 144hrs




GFS 144hrs





We are either headed for a very cold period with North or Northeasterly winds and snow showers from midweek or a cold/mild collision with some potential for large snowfalls assuming we end up on the right side of the polar front.

At 120hrs UKMO is very good for cold potentially snowy weather in Ireland - our neighbours might not be too impressed though!

Chicken Run

I know what'll happen..... I can predict it using Sod's Law...

Mr Chicken Run flies to the UK on Friday - we then get epic snowfall and freezing temps leaving me on my own with all the animals and no running water, and then flight disruptions mean he can't fly home. Nailed on !!!

BEASTERLY

GFS is a disaster, the 528 dam line doesnt come close to us until well into FI and it gone agian with in 24 hours.

I'd like the ECM to come off albeit the low being a little further south. The colder than average SSTs should help slight with marginality if the ECM ended up coming off(i know it wont)

maquiladora

A poor 12Z GFS, a better 12Z UKMO.

Gonna be interesting to see if the 12Z ECM leans towards either of those or throws up something entirely different. :pac:

roryc1

UKMO looks good all right
http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&carte=1021&ech=6&archive=0

The GFS is poor and it's the model I have most faith in at the moment, even the ensembles are not really that good for cold lovers

Kippure

maquiladora wrote: »

A poor 12Z GFS, a better 12Z UKMO.

Gonna be interesting to see if the 12Z ECM leans towards either of those or throws up something entirely different. :pac:

BEASTERLY wrote: »

GFS is a disaster, the 528 dam line doesnt come close to us until well into FI and it gone agian with in 24 hours.

I'd like the ECM to come off albeit the low being a little further south. The colder than average SSTs should help slight with marginality if the ECM ended up coming off(i know it wont)

Right gentleman! , we should know the form by now, Been at this years. The amount of chopping and changing that goes on before a cold period can be head wrecking.

I wouldnt worry.

The UKmo lads is a modified polar maratime northwesterly at 120 above.
Lets get that straight and ponder what the modification means.
It means marginality bigtime.


Each time we see a chart here half way right it's always on the edge of the reliable.
We were looking at 120hrs charts a few days ago and still are.
Nothing in the reliable here yet.Everything always pushed and delayed.

maquiladora

Kippure wrote: »

Right lads , we should know the form by now, Been at this years. The amount of chopping and changing that goes on before a cold period can be head wrecking.

I wouldnt worry.

Actually I think this is the most fun part of model watching. Would be a lot less interesting if all the models were showing the same thing.

You need ups and downs on a rollercoaster. :pac:

darkman2

ECM 120hrs, risk prolonged snow on this chart. Going more the way of the UKMO.

maquiladora

darkman2 wrote: »

ECM 120hrs, risk prolonged snow on this chart. Going more the way of the UKMO.

Would prefer to see upper air temps a bit lower, but no point worrying about since it will be different again on the 0Z anyway.

Redsunset

I don't see anything too wonderful bout latest ECM run,colder air never really makes it.Oh it will be what it will be,over and out,happy new year.:)

maquiladora

redsunset wrote: »

I don't see anything too wonderful bout latest ECM run,colder air never really makes it.Oh it will be what it will be,over and out,happy new year.:)

I dunno, I think there is some fun stuff in FI that could be interesting for parts, but since it's so far in FI its not worth going into. Cold out to the end too.

BEASTERLY

UKMO 12z: Nice end to the run with it developing a strong greenland High and A strong Siberian high pushes west a bit and kills any action in our beloved Atlantic.

ECM 12z: Similar to UKMO but after 168hrs it goes pear shaped with the Atlantic kicking up a fuss.

maquiladora

BEASTERLY wrote: »

ECM 12z: Similar to UKMO but after 168hrs it goes pear shaped with the Atlantic kicking up a fuss.

192 :



240 :



I wouldn't call it pear shaped exactly.

BEASTERLY

maquiladora wrote: »

1I wouldn't call it pear shaped exactly.

Sorry, i was talking about the chance of the cold staying longterm, didnt metion it in my post, maybe im pickin up on BB's negativity that stems from his common sense.

Now when i see on of BB's posts i just look away from the screen, cover my ears and shout ''cold is coming, cold is coming''.

In all seriousness tho i think we all should have listened to BB from the start, we all got a bit carried away with this one(well apart from BB).