Less cold...then colder again

Pangea

Deleted User wrote: »

The discussion is only on potential on a chart this far out,thats all it ever is and theres no doubt that in a northwesterly,the greatest potential for precipitaion is the west from Donegal down to mainly west cork including at times the city.
.

Even if it was to verify as Northwesterly it can easily swing from the east like last time and you guys in the East get another snowmaggadon.
When you think about it the last cold spell we had just had one major snow day up the North and West, Imagine if it snowed every day, We got one big dumping and then nothing but extreme cold for the next 8 or 9 days , Im not complaining though :pac:

Pangea

Pangea wrote: »

Even if it was to verify as Northwesterly it can easily swing from the east like last time and you guys in the East get another snowmaggadon.
When you think about it the last cold spell we had just had one major snow day up the North and West, Imagine if it snowed every day, We got one big dumping and then nothing but extreme cold for the next 8 or 9 days , I'm not complaining though :pac:

I don't believe the last 2 gfs runs either by the way.I think the ecm solution will be closer.
Whether it ends up closer on the colder side or milder,who knows.
I'm fully expecting another cold spell as potent as the last two but like dm2 I'm thinking I'm not sure when.
If it's coming,it'll probably be in the next month.
After that its just a nuisance and is suffering from longer daytime and less night time mellowing it.
Of the big 3 ECM,UKMO and down a bit the gfs,her ladyship the ecmwf is a tad out on her ownio at the moment calling for cold solutions.
I don't like that confidence wise obviously.
But then who has confidence in models beyond 96hrs these days anyway.
You need human intuition to have proper hunches on these things and regardless mother nature can kick that in the ass by giving you some other new direction either.

thetonynator

Pangea wrote: »

Even if it was to verify as Northwesterly it can easily swing from the east like last time and you guys in the East get another snowmaggadon.
When you think about it the last cold spell we had just had one major snow day up the North and West, Imagine if it snowed every day, We got one big dumping and then nothing but extreme cold for the next 8 or 9 days , Im not complaining though :pac:

and surprise sur-fúcking-prise, everywhere in the middle misses out again . .:mad:

but sure its only speculation . .theres nothing to stop a polar low forming over kilkenny now is there . .(nothing bar the fact that we're a litttle bit too far inland . .:()

thetonynator

Deleted User wrote: »

I don't believe the last 2 gfs runs either by the way.I think the ecm solution will be closer.
Whether it ends up closer on the colder side or milder,who knows.
I'm fully expecting another cold spell as potent as the last two but like dm2 I'm thinking I'm not sure when.
If it's coming,it'll probably be in the next month.
After that its just a nuisance and is suffering from longer daytime and less night time mellowing it.
Of the big 3 ECM,UKMO and down a bit the gfs,her ladyship the ecmwf is a tad out on her ownio at the moment calling for cold solutions.
I don't like that confidence wise obviously.
But then who has confidence in models beyond 96hrs these days anyway.
You need human intuition to have proper hunches on these things and regardless mother nature can kick that in the ass by giving you some other new direction either.

the longer daytimes in november and the added effect of coming out of the autumn, not an incredibly cold december didn't seem to bother the cold spell coming that time . .although that was exceptional!!!

ninebeanrows

I will probably put the blinkers on it but i think that it is inevitable we will enter another sever cold spell. With such blocking evident to our north and such a starkly inactive Atlantic it is inevitable.

Somethings up, lets hope it stays that way.

Medium term outlook is positive, dismiss GFS FI after 192hrs, it is self programmed to exaggerate the jet and speeds patterns up far too much.

A very interesting time in the regions climate.

This mild spell looks to be leaving us in the next few days and then it will be a cool down and then at some stage a cold plunge with snow will push in.

Yea my confidence has defo ruined this! But things just seem so different this year. It seems so much harder for mild weather to persist at our latitute than for a long time.

nacho libre

Deleted User wrote: »

I don't believe the last 2 gfs runs either by the way.I think the ecm solution will be closer.
.

unfortnately the ecm's performance of late has been disappointing- had this model's recent ouputs verified our last cold spell would not have occurred. the gfs, i regret to say, has been performing better in recent times. if this were last year, the ecm out on its own would fill me with confidence that the other models were wrong, but now i'm not so sure.

thetonynator

thetonynator wrote: »

the longer daytimes in november and the added effect of coming out of the autumn, not an incredibly cold december didn't seem to bother the cold spell coming that time . .although that was exceptional!!!

What came down in November,I've never seen come down before,I don't think anyone living has.I wouldn't expect a repeat so late February and march is not as good a time for something weaker to happen.

Anyhow this mornings Ecm delays the cold even further.
Another week of Bland to be expected or longer.
@ Nacho
I don't buy this notion that the Ecm has performed badly of late.
Ok some other models had a cold outlook for way longer than the ecm prior to the last spell but you couldn't make a forecast on them.Their FI output was mainly coincidental.
All models will have coincidences like that leading one astray as to their veracity from time to time in FI.
The trick is to be objective.
Too many people , especially people posting on uk fora dismiss models because they havent been showing what they want for long enough in FI.
Thats an unscientific way to look at it in my opinion.
Of course models run with too progressive a scenario one way or another but they all do from time to time.
They are far from a perfect science.The ECM is the best of that bunch by far.
I don't like it this morning.

aurora 527

Great interview on Irish Weather Online with Peter O'Donnell
this morning


http://bit.ly/eHd4xj

whippet

Just seen an article in the Star quoting IWO and Cusack claiming January and the remainder of the winter to be the coldest in 1000 years !!!!! :eek:

Is this typical Star journalism or can we be in for disaster?

Redsunset

whippet wrote: »

Just seen an article in the Star quoting IWO and Cusack claiming January and the remainder of the winter to be the coldest in 1000 years !!!!! :eek:

Is this typical Star journalism or can we be in for disaster?

Any chance you could post it up

Darwin

whippet wrote: »

Just seen an article in the Star quoting IWO and Cusack claiming January and the remainder of the winter to be the coldest in 1000 years !!!!! :eek:

Is this typical Star journalism or can we be in for disaster?

This may have its origins in a story printed in the Polish tabloids as early as last September. Source here

nacho libre

Deleted User wrote: »

What came down in November,I've never seen come down before,I don't think anyone living has.I wouldn't expect a repeat so late February and march is not as good a time for something weaker to happen.

Anyhow this mornings Ecm delays the cold even further.
Another week of Bland to be expected or longer.
@ Nacho
I don't buy this notion that the Ecm has performed badly of late.
Ok some other models had a cold outlook for way longer than the ecm prior to the last spell but you couldn't make a forecast on them.Their FI output was mainly coincidental.
All models will have coincidences like that leading one astray as to their veracity from time to time in FI.
The trick is to be objective.
Too many people , especially people posting on uk fora dismiss models because they havent been showing what they want for long enough in FI.
Thats an unscientific way to look at it in my opinion.
Of course models run with too progressive a scenario one way or another but they all do from time to time.
They are far from a perfect science.The ECM is the best of that bunch by far.
I don't like it this morning.

I had a hunch it would change its ouput again this morning to something less favourable. It has been doing this a lot lately.
The ukmo had progged the recent cold spells very early on and was consistent about how sustained they would be. The ecm was
flip-flopping.
It was far more consistent last year. Last year if the ecm was out on its own after one run showing snowy cold by midweek, i'd be more inclined to believe it was on the right track.
I think we are likely to see a return to colder conditions at some point, but i'm not convinced it will be as cold as the previous cold spell. Although in a normal winter pattern we'd be happy with a cold spell that had a temperature range of 1-4 degrees. We've been spoiled really in the last two years.

Elmer Blooker

whippet wrote: »

Just seen an article in the Star quoting IWO and Cusack claiming January and the remainder of the winter to be the coldest in 1000 years !!!!! :eek:

Is this typical Star journalism or can we be in for disaster?

Cusack as in Evelyn? Ignore this tripe, there is no way that Evelyn C would do a forecast beyond a week- not in a ............. 1000 years!

WolfeIRE

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Cusack as in Evelyn? Ignore this tripe, there is no way that Evelyn C would do a forecast beyond a week- not in a ............. 1000 years!

Met Eireann's online outlook yesterday went to Friday week.

mike65

It goes until Sunday....RTE News are getting terribly excited talking about a return to freezing weather, and completely ignoring the fact met error are talking about night time temps ( as I type the RTE reporter has just undermined the new-readers hyperbole)

WolfeIRE

mike65 wrote: »

It goes until Sunday....RTE News are getting terribly excited talking about a return to freezing weather, and completely ignoring the fact met error are talking about night time temps ( as I type the RTE reporter has just undermined the new-readers hyperbole)

yesterday's forecast Mike...
Outlook Wed to Fri next week: Cold with wintry showers. Considerable wind chill effect from a biting northerly wind. Sharp to severe night frosts returning

Met Error Mike...you made me laugh

nacho libre

mike65 wrote: »

It goes until Sunday....RTE News are getting terribly excited talking about a return to freezing weather, and completely ignoring the fact met error are talking about night time temps ( as I type the RTE reporter has just undermined the new-readers hyperbole)

mike65 don't panic about rte ramping, i think it's safe to say we're going to see the return of snow sometime in January.

darkman2

From Saturday it will be much colder with severe night frosts there is no doubt about that. Nightime temperatures will be below freezing pretty much every night from then on. Daytime temperatures on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday will really struggle. No higher then 3c in most places so frost and ice will persist in some areas away from onshore breezes. But it will also be mostly dry. Tuesday might see a brief rise in temperature (to the dizzy heights of 5 or 6c) and a band of rain pushing South with snow on high ground. And after that much colder again for Thursday and Friday onward with sleet or snow showers and temperatures lucky to even get above freezing. Though it's the timing of this part that is uncertain.

But freezing conditions are pretty much returning from Saturday.

Most people reporting on the weather start out from the same point as if reporting on giraff'es escaping from the zoo or the popularity of ipads..
They don't understand it and in the rush to print or VT [do we still use that term?] means they aren't interested in anything other than vague headlines.

Broadly the cold weather is coming I think,it's just a timing matter.

That said however.. 2 to 5 degree's will have a lot of people at 3 or 4 degree's and nothing near the kind of pre Xmas conditions we had.
We're not heading into that territory yet.
More like sleet showers I think rather than snow showers if there are showers yet.
I think dm2's prediction of daytime temperatures being lucky to get above freezing by the end of next week is over stating it a bit at this stage.That kind of thing is way less certain yet.
It will come in my opinion though ..eventually.
I've a feeling in me bones

WolfeIRE

Deleted User wrote: »

I've a feeling in me bones

That's arthritis BB.

More agreement among main models UKMO, ECM and GEM today regarding next week's weather although the GFS remains out on its own. Late Wed inhto Thursday looks like the real cooling down period. Temp range during daytime of 2-4c most likely at this stage

WolfeIRE

WolfeIRE wrote: »

That's arthritis BB.

Indeed... were it not for the local toy I'd have had a lot of shoveling to do last week :eek::eek:

Chuchu

Weather lurker here, got hooked during cold spells... reading this thread I thought some of you weather guys might like this cartoon...:D Hope link works...
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_M_TXZxkf9E0/SgyorZ2iPYI/AAAAAAAAAbs/5yLNtoKHZCI/s1600/there%27s%2Ba%2Bstorm%2Bbrewin%27...jpg

darkman2

Deleted User wrote: »

Most people reporting on the weather start out from the same point as if reporting on giraff'es escaping from the zoo or the popularity of ipads..
They don't understand it and in the rush to print or VT [do we still use that term?] means they aren't interested in anything other than vague headlines.

Broadly the cold weather is coming I think,it's just a timing matter.

That said however.. 2 to 5 degree's will have a lot of people at 3 or 4 degree's and nothing near the kind of pre Xmas conditions we had.
We're not heading into that territory yet.

No and it is important to stress that particularly for the first phase. The upcoming cold period will come in phases. The intial phase from Saturday till midweek will be benign by what we had recently but from Saturday, which has not recieved enough attention IMO, there will be very low night time minimum and daytime maximum temperatures. Typically daytime temperatures will be just above freezing and nightime temperatures -2 - -7c. Coldest inland. It will feel very different from now. Frost and ice will re-emerge again. But at least it will be mostly dry. It's a continuation of that increasing trend over the last 3 or 4 Winters to have everything frozen by the time the snow arrives.;)

Better get more charts on here to illustrate what's going on after the 12pm model runs.

cherryghost

Long range defintely forecasts a rather long cold spell

WolfeIRE

latest gfs falling more into line with ecm

WolfeIRE

WolfeIRE wrote: »

latest gfs falling more into line with ecm

It's still rubbish though beyond 120 and sub 168 as it has a high too close so dry and very cold at night with precip confined to North mayo and Donegal coasts.

Then it gives us this boring outcome.. nothing to write home about...see the image below..

Lets see if ecm this evening repeats last nights cack which if it did,definitely would put confidence in Dm2's hopes above pretty low.
For the sake of excitement,lets hope it doesn't.

darkman2

A very cold spell of weather does not always = lots of snow. There would be very low minimum and maximum temperatures if the GFS run came off as it is (which it won't) and there would be snow for many at various points. UKMO is better if you want cold with more in the way of snow in the shorter term. But it might be short lived if a seperate high pressure cell breaks away South of Greenland. The overall trend has not changed at all.




BB that chart you posted above is much colder then you seem to appreciate. At night pick a number between -5 and -10.

darkman2

darkman2 wrote: »

BB that chart you posted above is much colder then you seem to appreciate. At night pick a number between -5 and -10.

To an extent dm2 it's very cold alright but it's a faux cold that would be easily lifted and destroyed by an atlantic front.The airflow around that high is modified atlantic air.

I like the ukmo you posted though..
When we see more of that across all models then we sit up but it's another flip from them isn't it compared to what they showed last night..
I'm not hot linking,I'm saving these images so that when I go back to my posts the images are exactly the ones I have described.

So unless the ecm comes on board tonight,we are back to only one of the main three showing something interesting.

thetonynator

Deleted User wrote: »

To an extent dm2 it's very cold alright but it's a faux cold that would be easily lifted and destroyed by an atlantic front.The airflow around that high is modified atlantic air.

I like the ukmo you posted though..
When we see more of that across all models then we sit up but it's another flip from them isn't it compared to what they showed last night..
I'm not hot linking,I'm saving these images so that when I go back to my posts the images are exactly the ones I have described.

So unless the ecm comes on board tonight,we are back to only one of the main three showing something interesting.

]

The last cold wasn't faux cold and the atlantic had absolutely no problem in breaking it down in the space of about 12 hours. In reality, any real atlantic weather ( bar what comes from the north) is going to break down a cold spell, and our cold spells here will always depend on the atlantic behaving itself . . .:(