Less cold...then colder again

maquiladora

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Sorry, i was talking about the chance of the cold staying longterm, didnt metion it in my post, maybe im pickin up on BB's negativity that stems from his common sense.

Now when i see on of BB's posts i just look away from the screen, cover my ears and shout ''cold is coming, cold is coming''.

In all seriousness tho i think we all should have listened to BB from the start, we all got a bit carried away with this one(well apart from BB).

In terms of the cold staying longterm, a couple of things:
(a)It hasn't even started yet (thats even if it does start!) so impossible to know how longterm it might stay (if it happens.) :P
(b)At the very end of the latest ECM run the upper temps are cold enough for snow for most places and we can't see what happens after 240 anyway...


No need to worry or get carried away, the weather will do what it wants to do anyway.

patneve2

Anyone who dislikes the ECM is crazy, we are sandwiched between colder air and milder air - lots of snow, sleet and rain possible from that run, you just need to be on the right side! I'd definitely take it;)

Definitely much better than full blast atlantic or anticyclonic gloom:)

BEASTERLY

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Now when i see on of BB's posts i just look away from the screen, cover my ears and shout ''cold is coming, cold is coming''.
.

Ah here now..

-8 uppers by the way are very marginal for polar maratime air.Wet bulbs and dewpoints will be locally too high and certainly above freezing in my opinion.Remember the coastal fringes in our recent spell often had sleety hail even with a freezing surface air advection.
Thats worse with a choppy atlantic.
Those ecm's spell wet hill snow at best to me and perhaps inland Ulster and inland north leinster.

Now you can start looking again Beasterly because frankly I don't believe any of the output post 120 from these models at the moment.
The only thing we need concern ourselves with at the risk otherwise of going insane is that the flow is in general [however long it takes] North south.
If that keeps up,the result eventually has to be proper white stuff.
I believe these models are having difficulty with grasping that part of the nettle.
Just look at the U.S weather service discussions where they are constantly over ruling runs of all models at times and look at the tinkering the Bracknell met office are doing with the outputs.
They're taking the mathematics with large buckets of salt.
So in short,it's being built so they will come.
Happy new year folks!

WIZE

is it going to snow again

je55ie

WIZE wrote: »

is it going to snow again

The million dollar question

BEASTERLY

Deleted User wrote: »

Ah here now..

-8 uppers by the way are very marginal for polar maratime air.Wet bulbs and dewpoints will be locally too high and certainly above freezing in my opinion.Remember the coastal fringes in our recent spell often had sleety hail even with a freezing surface air advection.
Thats worse with a choppy atlantic.
Those ecm's spell wet hill snow at best to me and perhaps inland Ulster and inland north leinster.

Now you can start looking again Beasterly because frankly I don't believe any of the output post 120 from these models at the moment.
The only thing we need concern ourselves with at the risk otherwise of going insane is that the flow is in general [however long it takes] North south.
If that keeps up,the result eventually has to be proper white stuff.
I believe these models are having difficulty with grasping that part of the nettle.
Just look at the U.S weather service discussions where they are constantly over ruling runs of all models at times and look at the tinkering the Bracknell met office are doing with the outputs.
They're taking the mathematics with large buckets of salt.
So in short,it's being built so they will come.
Happy new year folks!

*looks away from the screen, covers ears and shouts ''cold is coming, cold is coming''*

Seriously tho, i cant help but remember the way most people here were saying only 5 weeks ago ''there is no way we will have widespread lying snow at low levels at the end of November''. When it actually fell in late November and lay at low levels for 32 days.

I know this is a different situation but im clutching at straw as ive been suffering from snow withdrawl sympthons, lol.

maquiladora

Nothing to get excited about on the 18Z GFS!

Should be interesting to see what trend emerges on the 0Z runs, the first of 2011.

dfbemt

The various charts all appear to be indicating that the 4th, 5th, 6th will see a considerable cold spell with possible snowfall, concentrated along the East Coast again but spreading inland.

The UK looks like it will be bombarded again by Eastern European invaders !! Looks like heavy and presistent snowfall for a good few days from 4th onwards.

Supercell

I just see some hill snow in Leinster then back to mild, just looking at the gfs.
Good stuff for working off the xmas belly

John.Icy

dfbemt wrote: »

The various charts all appear to be indicating that the 4th, 5th, 6th will see a considerable cold spell with possible snowfall, concentrated along the East Coast again but spreading inland.

The UK looks like it will be bombarded again by Eastern European invaders !! Looks like heavy and presistent snowfall for a good few days from 4th onwards.

LOL, please show me some of these models that indicate concentration on the East coast?? At this moment it is more than likely going to be a Northerly/Westerly airflow. Also, looking at GFS, it spells wet snow(if even) or rain for many.

Hopefully, the 0z can shunt everything back West, and cold spell 3, will be back on the cards.

darkman2

edit

Duiske

An interesting update from ME regarding next week, though they don't seem overly confident beyond Tuesday.

Headline: The first week of the new year will be a cold one with changeable weather and the risk of wintry precipitation, mainly on Tuesday and Wednesday. Sunday night will be very cold over the northern half with a widespread severe ground frost as temperatures fall to between -6 and -1 degrees. It will be milder over southern parts with more cloud and some outbreaks of rain, possibly falling as sleet or snow on higher ground. Monday will be a cold day with highest temperatures of only 0 to 4 degrees. There will be a few wintry showers with southern parts most at risk. Some accumulations of snow are possible over higher ground. On Monday night, a band of rain will develop over northern parts, introducing slightly milder air with only a small risk of sleet or snow on higher ground. Elsewhere, it will be mainly dry and cold with lowest temperatures between -2 and -6 degrees. The rain will gradually spread southwards on Tuesday and will turn to snow or sleet on some higher ground but it will be mostly rain as temperatures rise to values between 2 and 5 degrees on Tuesday afternoon. It will become dry in many places on Tuesday night with clear spells developing allowing temperatures to fall between zero and -4 degrees and ice forming on any wet surfaces. Developments from Wednesday are uncertain, with the latest information suggesting that a band of precipitation will sweep over the country from the North with a mix of rain, sleet and snow and the risk of some snow accumulations. Highest temperatures on Wednesday will be in the range of 1 to 5 degrees. Staying cold for the rest of the week with frost at night and the risk of some further wintry precipitation.

aurora 527

BEASTERLY wrote: »

*looks away from the screen, covers ears and shouts ''cold is coming, cold is coming''*

Nearly choked on my coffee!!!

aurora 527

Well the 00z looks like its going to stay cold.

maquiladora

aurora 527 wrote: »

Well the 00z looks like its going to stay cold.

Thats the control run of the GFS ensembles. Basically its the same as the main operational GFS but it's run at half the resolution. I wouldn't pay any attention to it at all at 174 hours.

mike65

darkman2 wrote: »

These guys cannot read the models - I can and I am telling you a severe cold spell with lots of snow is imminent. BB is under playing what we need for snow - we don't need -10 at 1,400m for snow.We need sub -5 away from coasts. Elsewhere freezing nights and snow.

Either it will be cold/mild snow event or direct Northerly snow shower event - we don't know yet.

Just quoted for reference later.

maquiladora

darkman2 wrote: »

These guys cannot read the models

Oh? Who?

darkman2 wrote: »

I am telling you a severe cold spell with lots of snow is imminent

So no maybe about that at all? No possibility that won't happen? Wow... :P

darkman2 wrote: »

Very difficult forcasting ATM

I'd agree with that!

200motels

The weather is up in the air at the moment (pardon the pun) it's boring and dull, let's hope for another sustained cold spell, but looking at the models they are all over the place, I think it's a wait and see situation. Happy new year to everyone on the Weather Boards and hopefully a very cold start to it.

Kippure

[IMG][/img]

Fits in with dates mentioned (4th-6th) about the start of some severe cold.

BEASTERLY

Kippure wrote: »

[IMG][/img]

Fits in with dates mentioned (4th-6th) about the start of some severe cold.

North of Scotland is the only place getting real cold, but not severe even there on that chart.

UKMO is still by far the most promising of any of the models. This is the one with the most human input so there is some hope in that! It has strong westerlys to begin on wednesday, if it were to come off it would mean alot of rain and sleet near atlantic coasts but if any periods of percip make it inland they should be snow well inland. That is based on just one run so nothing to be worried about or to get hopes up about.

BEASTERLY

BEASTERLY wrote: »

North of Scotland is the only place getting real cold, but not severe even there on that chart.

I'd ignore the specifics for now and welcome the continuance of the north south TREND.

We do not want to see height drops in greenland or rises in EUROPE.
ukmo is slightly better in that respect I think tonight but rather vague'

John.Icy

darkman2 wrote: »

These guys cannot read the models - I can and I am telling you a severe cold spell with lots of snow is imminent. BB is under playing what we need for snow - we don't need -10 at 1,400m for snow.We need sub -5 away from coasts. Elsewhere freezing nights and snow.

Either it will be cold/mild snow event or direct Northerly snow shower event - we don't know yet.

Very difficult forcasting ATM but that is my best shot. There is nobody that can forcast as well as this. Check MT's thread for more info.

I can read models perfectly well, there is no big signs severe cold on it's way.

December was severe cold, nothing of the sorts is on the way.

It shall be dodgy for snow, BB is right there, for the majority of the GFS uppers are -4 to -6, for some it could be snow, others sleet, others rain.

Best chances of snow in NI, the LP is forecast to be north of NI, before moving to west Scotland. Bands would travel down south, weakening as they travel, with marginality a big factor for most at this moment, and if snow falls, think back to snow events in the past with uppers of -5, wet snow, thawed pretty quickly afterwards. If we want nice fluffy snow like November or December, we need -8 uppers or lower. Since this isn't a proper Polar Vortex, like the last cold spell, it fails to bring very cold uppers along with it, so we have to wait for the winds of this "cool" low to drag the uppers from the Arctic or Scandinavia or wherever, once it comes from the Nrth.

This is a situation, where there could be a big upgrade where the winds are stronger and from the North, so cold will come quicker and be more severe, or it could all go pearshaped, and let the Atlantic back in, and GFS is showing this, with the LP failing to get into a postion to keep the cold coming, and keeping the Atlantic at bay.

Intresting times ahead anway. Also, since last night things are trending Southwards, which is good, we need to hope this contibues

maquiladora

12Z GFS, a step in the right direction. GME & UKMO too.

There is potential there for the inevitable changes over the next 100 hours or so to upgrade the outlook to a colder or snowier picture - but that is only one of several possibilities.

nacho libre

what's potentially on offer next week would be welcomed by many prior to the winter of 2009/10. If you were around during the wretched mild winters of the late nineties, you gladly take what's on offer from next Wednesday. Yes, we'd( those of us who like cold and snow) all prefer to have dry snow and significant accumulations, but that, if it's going to happen at all again this winter, is unlikely to occur until after mid-january. What the gfs is showing in fi corresponds with M.T.s forecast of a milder period to develop at some stage during the second week of January.

Min

That blizzard last January had heavy wet snow, it came with south easterly winds and built up on the satellite dish and took away reception, had to get tha ladder out in heavy snow and remove the snow.
Powdery snow doesn't bring that problem from what I have seen so far.
Snow from the north and east likely to be powdery, anything from the west or southwest likely to be heavier snow.
So I do have a snow preference...

I think we will see snow this coming week. Met Eireann are usually conservative, isn't that right Ms Joan Blackburn who said at the start of the last cold period that it wouldn't be as bad as the first one...

Developments from Wednesday are uncertain, with the latest information suggesting that a band of precipitation will sweep over the country from the North with a mix of rain, sleet and snow and the risk of some snow accumulations. Highest temperatures on Wednesday will be in the range of 1 to 5 degrees. Staying cold for the rest of the week with frost at night and the risk of some further wintry precipitation.

Nailed on for snow with that forecast, taking into account Met Eireann's conservatism.

maquiladora

The Met Eireann outlook I've noticed seems to be based pretty much entirely on what the ECM is showing at the time it is written. I suppose its actually quite useful for anyone learning to read the charts, you could have the outlook open and compare it between the ECM charts, just make sure the run you look at is the one the outlook was based on.

John.Icy

Much better 12z's across the board.

Min

John.Icy wrote: »

Why can't some people get it....

edited my post since you did, but walk to the shops....I live 6 miles from the nearest shop...

John.Icy

Min wrote: »

edited my post since you did, but walk to the shops....I live 6 miles from the nearest shop...

Well I did say there were some who would live a distance, but I was talking about the city centre folk in Dublin. I was just ranting with anger over the return of cold being so much weaker than what was originally on the plates, hopefully I didn't drive you to anger or anything lol

Similar GFS 18z, if there's not an upgrade tomorrow, we may take what we get, and that may be some wet sow or sleet.

maquiladora

18Z GFS isn't bad. Some promising stuff in there, but not in the reliable timeframe.