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Possible Return to cold next week - Potentially Severe

  • 09-12-2010 2:24pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    Hi all, now that a thaw is on it might be time to look at the next opportunity to see some more cold towards the end of next week. We should start to see a slow cool down from Sunday onwards. There is some potential that we will see some severe cold towards the end of next week.

    Although there those seem to be a downgrade in the main models today it is still in FI so its still all to play for. Here is some shots from this morning's ECM:

    138816.GIF

    138817.GIF

    138819.GIF

    Joe Bastardi seems to think were in for it:
    THURSDAY MORNING
    PREPARATION FOR RENEWAL OF EXTREME COLD FROM FRANCE TO SCANDINAVIA AND WEST THROUGH THE UK SHOULD BE MADE.
    I am hopeful (prayerful) that the coming cold wave that will follow what thaw there is in the northwest will have the populace prepared. While it is true I have had a little fun with those that don't see eye-to-eye with me on the issue of AGW, the coming cold, in the wake of the stress that has already been put on the populace of the northwest part of Europe, is nothing to joke about.
    The current cold will shift southeast for a while, before the re-establishment of the cold pool back where it was in the past two weeks. This will allow people to have a few days of milder weather in the U.K. and Ireland. Germany is liable to take the brunt of the whole thing, for while there are a few days of warming in the northwest, the cold shifting southeast centers over them, and when it reloads a bit farther west, it is over them.
    While I realize it's open for debate, the patterns that are developing are part of what I described would start to happen a few years ago when the combination of oceanic, solar and even seismic cycles (the last one being the biggest wild card) began to take effect. The coming years will tell who is right and who is wrong. The true shame here, though, is that people were brainwashed into thinking such things could not happen anymore, and it's almost dastardly that the ones that did the brainwashing are now claiming it's because they were right (we go from saying it won't occur because of something, to it is occurring because of what was supposed to prevent it from occurring). In any case, it is my sincere hope that folks in the targeted area do not take this lightly. If I am overdone in some places, all the better. There will be a price to pay in hardship for this, and in studying the whole pattern that is in front of western and northern Europe for the next 15 days (the shot of cold into the south and east comes and goes, but when it comes anew after the New Year, it may remain), the bitter pill to swallow for not being prepared for such things is as nasty as the cold itself.
    Be ready!
    Ciao for now. ***



    Even with the downgrade in the models, it is still a spell which could turn out to be prolonged and severe. The best place to get info on this is to keep checking in on M.T Cranium's daily forecasts and to check here for updates from some of our other regular experts.

    If it looks like where really going to get hit hard it might be an idea to use the thaw time to stock up.:)


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Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,388 ✭✭✭gbee


    Jees, it looks like the battle of the bulge all over again! :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,248 ✭✭✭kstand


    Beasterly, where can I find MT Craniums daily forecasts?




  • Nothing is set in stone by a long shot yet.
    All we know is,we are on the cold side of the jetstream which increases the likelyhood of northerly and Easterly winds for the duration of that set up.

    John Hammond [ukmo] in an interview on morning Ireland reiterated this ie cold to very cold from next week on.
    However subtlety's could mean cold,dry and cloudy for the duration of the spell part 2 or it could mean armageddon snowfalls.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    Just to add that because the charts are all over the place at the moment it is hard to say where the snow potential is most likely to be. Although northern coasts look like being most in the line of fire from any showery outbreaks. Although a slightly more north easterly tendancy will see sreamers getting going in the Irish sea(again) putting the east coast at risk.

    Happy Days:D




  • kstand wrote: »
    Beasterly, where can I find MT Craniums daily forecasts?
    his thread is one of the stuck threads at the top of the foum.
    He is based in Western Canada and does a daily forecast ,sometimes updated later in the day and contributes aswell to the snow threads here.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,094 ✭✭✭Liamario


    So basically we are talking about the start of the third ice age?


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,849 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    Dont know about you guys but I am sick of this cold weather, wish we could have a good storm instead :D:D


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    kstand wrote: »
    Beasterly, where can I find MT Craniums daily forecasts?

    It's a thread that is stickied here in the weather forum.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 234 ✭✭Bjorn Bored.


    guess i better get those winter tyres after all


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,171 ✭✭✭triple-M


    guess i better get those winter tyres after all
    likewise


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,363 ✭✭✭Brenireland


    Nothing to worry about here now that the Thaw has set in @ this stage,we can safely say the harshest period of our winter weather has passed.:cool:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,388 ✭✭✭gbee


    ,we can safely say the harshest period of our winter weather has passed.:cool:

    I wouldn't call that a Royal Flush tbh. We traditionally get our worst winter weather in January. This year we will have colder land from the early shock, so whatever weather we get in the coming months, it will be exaggerated a bit.

    Use the thaw to stock-up.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,363 ✭✭✭Brenireland


    gbee wrote: »
    I wouldn't call that a Royal Flush tbh. We traditionally get our worst winter weather in January. This year we will have colder land from the early shock, so whatever weather we get in the coming months, it will be exaggerated a bit.

    Use the thaw to stock-up.

    Stock up for?,Look once a thaw sets in after a cold 2/3 weeks of the start of a very cold winter You can safely say that their will NOT be anymore Snow/or temps below -10 until next winter.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,564 ✭✭✭Pangea


    Nothing to worry about here now that the Thaw has set in @ this stage,we can safely say the harshest period of our winter weather has passed.:cool:
    Stock up for?,Look once a thaw sets in after a cold 2/3 weeks of the start of a very cold winter You can safely say that their will NOT be anymore Snow/or temps below -10 until next winter.

    Nonsense Its not safe to say that the harshest period of winter weather has passed, its only the 9th of december , havent you read the thread title. If anything this cold period now passing is a sign of things to come.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,363 ✭✭✭Brenireland


    Pangea wrote: »
    Nonsense Its not safe to say that the harshest period of winter weather has passed, its only the 9th of december , havent you read the thread title. If anything this cold period now passing is a sign of things to come.

    The remainder of this winter will be mild & wet with the return of our westerly winds,No more Harsh weather.
    I am afraid all of the top forecasters are saying the same so I am probably correct.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,564 ✭✭✭Pangea


    The remainder of this winter will be mild & wet with the return of our westerly winds,No more Harsh weather.
    I am afraid all of the top forecasters are saying the same so I am probably correct.
    All the top forecasters??
    Im afraid not , you obviously havent read M.T. Craniums winter forecast.
    You obviously have not been keeping up to date with other long range forecasts. BBC , Met Uk all have cold weather coming back for the remainder of the month with temperatures going to be well below average.
    I can safely say that there will be -10 tempertures before the winter is out.
    Im just looking forward to quoting your post once we get more of the freezing weather.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,533 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    you may well be right about it not being as cold, but of course it doesn't need to be quite as cold for it to be fairly snowy. we may not even get as much snow from now on- that's-quite likely actually, but to rule out snow altogether from now on is ridiculous given what has been happening to the jetstream of late, and the nao being in negative territory


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Pangea wrote: »
    Nonsense Its not safe to say that the harshest period of winter weather has passed, its only the 9th of december , havent you read the thread title. If anything this cold period now passing is a sign of things to come.

    +1!


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,281 ✭✭✭Stevek101


    OwenC is back? :confused:


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,533 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Pangea wrote: »
    All the top forecasters??
    Im afraid not , you obviously havent read M.T. Craniums winter forecast.
    You obviously have not been keeping up to date with other long range forecasts. BBC , Met Uk all have cold weather coming back for the remainder of the month with temperatures going to be well below average.
    I can safely say that there will be -10 tempertures before the winter is out.
    Im just looking forward to quoting your post once we get more of the freezing weather.

    ah ive just realised he is in wind-up mode, he wants to annoy people who are keen to see a return to colder weather. i don't think he really believes what he is saying.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,576 ✭✭✭patneve2


    Looking at the charts today, we can expect an evolution like this:
    1. First of all, a dry easterly (unforuntately the unstable core of cold air will be over central/southern europe with the HP near our shores)
    2. Retrogression of the massive (it's forecast to be massive) Greenland high a good few hundred km NW of our shores, leaving us with a potent northerly. This is when it would get interesting...polar lows mmmmm;)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 399 ✭✭fizzycyst


    I smell a troll :rolleyes:


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,363 ✭✭✭Brenireland


    ah ive just realised he is in wind-up mode, he wants to annoy people who are keen to see a return to colder weather. i don't think he really believes what he is saying.

    haha!yes exactly!,just said id throw out some statements to see how true to your word you were about the return of the hard weather!& it seems you may be right I just hope we get lots of snow & a white chrimbo!


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,988 ✭✭✭dirtyghettokid


    if we get a return of a cold snap, do you think it will dip low enough to break the current lowest temp record? (−19.1 °C)


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,533 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    patneve2 wrote: »
    Looking at the charts today, we can expect an evolution like this:
    1. First of all, a dry easterly (unforuntately the unstable core of cold air will be over central/southern europe with the HP near our shores)
    2. Retrogression of the massive (it's forecast to be massive) Greenland high a good few hundred km NW of our shores, leaving us with a potent northerly. This is when it would get interesting...polar lows mmmmm;)

    it would be interesting, and no one wants a polar low more than i do, but there is the very real danger the high near us doesn't go anywhere at all. with this in mind there was a guy lampooned a month ago on another weather site for saying a 1045 mb high would be close to the uk on Christmas Day. I could see that happening now. I think the only thing we can be confident about is that temperatures of 10-12 degrees in a south westerly flow aren't in the offing anytime soon.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,204 ✭✭✭eskimocat


    I don't think we have seen the last of this spell. I seem to remember other winters (fado fado ;)) being very cold for prolonged periods, so why not this one, although to be fair, not necessarily this cold this early! This was mainly in Donegal on the coast so it was a real event when it snowed enough to stick there, but when it snowed, it SNOWED!

    Am i glad to have my weather station this winter. It's lovely to be able to offer things like, it was -11 in Dromahair the other morning...


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,363 ✭✭✭Brenireland


    the only thing is I wonder how will the weather drop from highs of 10DG's in order for the cold front to return....


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    the only thing is I wonder how will the weather drop from highs of 10DG's in order for the cold front to return....

    The same way they rose from highs of -4;)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,576 ✭✭✭patneve2


    it would be interesting, and no one wants a polar low more than i do, but there is the very real danger the high near us doesn't go anywhere at all. with this in mind there was a guy lampooned a month ago on another weather site for saying a 1045 mb high would be close to the uk on Christmas Day. I could see that happening now. I think the only thing we can be confident about is that temperatures of 10-12 degrees in a south westerly flow aren't in the offing anytime soon.

    What does comfort me are the still massive positive anomalies in Greenland. I think we are definitely heading for a renewed cold spell, but your considerations could well prove to be accurate in the new year: I'd be very surprised in the high pressure anomalies continued in Greenland/mid Atlantic and they didn't shift over to our shores (mind you the hp will be over us in the next week) or even further east.

    Leaving this aside, the Arctic Oscillation forecasts are still very negative (weakened polar vortex which is what we need) and the North Atlantic oscillation forecast reaches a low on the 16/17th December.

    http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml

    http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.nao_index_ensm.html


    Therefore I'd say a cold spell is pretty much in the bag sometime between the 15/16th to the 20th. A breakdown of the situation should follow with milder air running back in. However, nothing is set in stone and that's why I love the weather, no1 really knows whats going to happen!:D


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,144 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    patneve2 wrote: »
    What does comfort me are the still massive positive anomalies in Greenland. I think we are definitely heading for a renewed cold spell, but your considerations could well prove to be accurate in the new year: I'd be very surprised in the high pressure anomalies continued in Greenland/mid Atlantic and they didn't shift over to our shores (mind you the hp will be over us in the next week) or even further east.

    Leaving this aside, the Arctic Oscillation forecasts are still very negative (weakened polar vortex which is what we need) and the North Atlantic oscillation forecast reaches a low on the 16/17th December.

    http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml

    http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.nao_index_ensm.html


    Therefore I'd say a cold spell is pretty much in the bag sometime between the 15/16th to the 20th. A breakdown of the situation should follow with milder air running back in. However, nothing is set in stone and that's why I love the weather, no1 really knows whats going to happen!:D

    The 20th you say :D

    138825.png


This discussion has been closed.
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