European Parliament Elections 2019

Galwayguy35 · 27-05-2019 7:16pm

Wallace seems to be doing well accrording to the news, I wonder could he take the third seat ahead of the Greens.

Uriel. · 27-05-2019 7:24pm

SirGerryAdams wrote: »

What has Walsh ever done?

Nothing, except, she's a woman and she's gay, the face of the new age of Ireland.

That said, her or Casey? If that's the shootout....

Blueshoe · 27-05-2019 7:25pm

Uriel. wrote: »

Nothing, except, she's a woman and she's gay, the face of the new age of Ireland.

That said, her or Casey? If that's the shootout....

Casey please

Eric Cartman · 27-05-2019 7:26pm

Uriel. wrote: »

Nothing, except, she's a woman and she's gay, the face of the new age of Ireland.

That said, her or Casey? If that's the shootout....

She's literally the identity politics candidate, fg thanked their lucky stars they could use her, such a generic brand of populism that she would have easily fit in SD, PbP etc.. Hopefully rural ireland has seen through the veil.

golfball37 · 27-05-2019 7:27pm

Just Saying wrote: »

At 18.41 I quoted the procedure as outlined in the Oireachtas debate on the process.

Have you read this or have you some other reason to believe that Boylan's vote won't count?

When there’s 3 left with 2 seats to fill they don’t bother with final order historically

Just Saying · 27-05-2019 7:31pm

golfball37 wrote: »

When there’s 3 left with 2 seats to fill they don’t bother with final order historically

The situation has never arisen before whereby there is a difference between third and fourth seats.

Have you read the explanation of the process given in the Oireachtas which I posted at 18.41??

robman60 · 27-05-2019 7:31pm

Eric Cartman wrote: »

She's literally the identity politics candidate, fg thanked their lucky stars they could use her, such a generic brand of populism that she would have easily fit in SD, PbP etc.. Hopefully rural ireland has seen through the veil.

The results say they haven't.

Cannot identify any reason one would vote for her. She was woeful on the debates, has a few painfully generic, vacuous lines, yet she looks like getting in. I suppose all it shows is that policies are secondary. A nice photo, a fancy leaflet, and you can make the laws, lol.

is_that_so · 27-05-2019 7:31pm

otnomart wrote: »

Sorry, my question could have been clearer.

The Council of the EU adopts a list of candidate commissioners, one for each member state.
Will the Green put pressure on the Irish Government to propose a Green Commissioner ?

It is a government appointment not a Dail one. Phil Hogan wants a commissioner job again and is expected to be reappointed.

Fan of Netflix · 27-05-2019 7:33pm

Watching the transfers in Dublin MEP race. Sinn Fein still as transfer toxic as ever. You'd think someone like Lynn Boylan might get more transfers, but Barry Andrews got around 300 more than her from Alice Higgins votes. Think we can safely call it now Lynn Boylan and Sinn Fein lose a seat. Total disaster for Sinn Fein.

Christy42 · 27-05-2019 7:34pm

robman60 wrote: »

The results say they haven't.

Cannot identify any reason one would vote for her. She was woeful on the debates, has a few painfully generic, vacuous lines, yet she looks like getting in. I suppose all it shows is that policies are secondary. A nice photo, a fancy leaflet, and you can make the laws, lol.

It is between her and old man shouts at cloud...

Given the man got 23% at the presidential election it seems like a pretty poor showing to get 9% here. It kinda shows that election was a protest vote thing more than people wanting to give the man real power.

Eric Cartman · 27-05-2019 7:37pm

Christy42 wrote: »

It is between her and old man shouts at cloud...

Given the man got 23% at the presidential election it seems like a pretty poor showing to get 9% here. It kinda shows that election was a protest vote thing more than people wanting to give the man real power.

his visibility was terrible this time round, almost no exposure in north kildare, had a chance to sinch up more votes by driving home the concerns that made him popular in the presidential election but failed to capitalise on it. One good soundbyte about traveller criminality or being a candidate for people who actually work and he would have been alight with support.

I still think he'll get a lot of transfers and due to walsh and mchugh just being very meh candidates he has a slim chance, but the man could have done a lot more, especially considering his mostly rural constituency taking in a few counties that have particular issues with traveller fueds and crime.

Tell me how · 27-05-2019 7:40pm

Eric Cartman wrote: »

his visibility was terrible this time round, almost no exposure in north kildare, had a chance to sinch up more votes by driving home the concerns that made him popular in the presidential election but failed to capitalise on it. One good soundbyte about traveller criminality or being a candidate for people who actually work and he would have been alight with support.

I still think he'll get a lot of transfers and due to walsh and mchugh just being very meh candidates he has a slim chance, but the man could have done a lot more, especially considering his mostly rural constituency taking in a few counties that have particular issues with traveller fueds and crime.

How would he being an MEP have had any relevance on this train of thought?

It's like voting for someone because you think they support the same soccer team as you.

robman60 · 27-05-2019 7:41pm

Eric Cartman wrote: »

his visibility was terrible this time round, almost no exposure in north kildare, had a chance to sinch up more votes by driving home the concerns that made him popular in the presidential election but failed to capitalise on it. One good soundbyte about traveller criminality or being a candidate for people who actually work and he would have been alight with support.

I still think he'll get a lot of transfers and due to walsh and mchugh just being very meh candidates he has a slim chance, but the man could have done a lot more, especially considering his mostly rural constituency taking in a few counties that have particular issues with traveller fueds and crime.

That's what I was thinking earlier. When you consider how stupid he was in the last week, it tells you he could definitely have got over the line were it not for his own foolishness.

I do not think Casey is a racist but saying the 'I'm a racist' as a way to say he is a proud Irishman is next level idiotic in a politics where soundbites are so important.

robman60 · 27-05-2019 7:44pm

South results just in and SF could be under pressure again. If the transfer toxicity they're showing in Dublin stands, they're probably out

Uriel. · 27-05-2019 7:45pm

Tell me how wrote: »

How would he being an MEP have had any relevance on this train of thought?

It's like voting for someone because you think they support the same soccer team as you.

That's how a lot of people vote, irrespective of the type of election. Sure look at the kinda crap candidates put forward as their mission/proposal, particularly in the locals

The reality is, from a legislature perspective none of the Irish meps can do much, if anything. Notwithstanding his good attendance and voting record, what has ming achieved in Brussels.

I will say Mairead McGuinness and Marian Harkin have done tremendous works for various causes while in Brussels, in terms of raising profiles for various issues, such as dementia, and have really championed the rights of those with dementia.
However, legislatively there is little power.

Just Saying · 27-05-2019 7:45pm

Daly only 2k behind Andrews after count 12.

With 46k votes between White and Gannon she will surely bridge the gap easily.

Christy42 · 27-05-2019 7:45pm

Eric Cartman wrote: »

his visibility was terrible this time round, almost no exposure in north kildare, had a chance to sinch up more votes by driving home the concerns that made him popular in the presidential election but failed to capitalise on it. One good soundbyte about traveller criminality or being a candidate for people who actually work and he would have been alight with support.

I still think he'll get a lot of transfers and due to walsh and mchugh just being very meh candidates he has a slim chance, but the man could have done a lot more, especially considering his mostly rural constituency taking in a few counties that have particular issues with traveller fueds and crime.

He was never really popular and the vote was always going to disappear in a real election. As you say soundbites may have gotten him over some meh candidates but that is all he has.

He is there as a troll. Not a proper candidate which is why he didn't campaign. It really is just him shouting at clouds as opposed to having a real policy.

Eric Cartman · 27-05-2019 7:45pm

Tell me how wrote: »

How would he being an MEP have had any relevance on this train of thought?

It's like voting for someone because you think they support the same soccer team as you.

in the same way as it would have had no impact from the presidential office but it shows the government the barometer of the country.

His stance on immigration does have relevance in the EU , but the other comments would be more about exposure. When it looked like the green party were going to green sweep it, leo came right out and said 'ok, we know what the people want' , if casey got elected to europe you hope they'd take the same kind of message home.

If we want to talk relevance , the amount of candidates we saw with 'help the homeless crisis' 'continue the work of repeal the 8th' from europe, complete twaddle.

charlie14 · 27-05-2019 7:48pm

golfball37 wrote: »

When there’s 3 left with 2 seats to fill they don’t bother with final order historically

True, or at least they didn`t in 2014 in Midland North West, but with two of the seats going into cold storage due to Brexit, looks as if they are this time.

Duane Dibbley · 27-05-2019 7:52pm

As long as the SF leader pulls stunts like this, I wouldn’t entertain a SF candidate while she is leader.

normanoffside · 27-05-2019 7:55pm

robman60 wrote: »

South results just in and SF could be under pressure again. If the transfer toxicity they're showing in Dublin stands, they're probably out

She'll be out I'd imagine. Clune will pass her once Doyle goes. In the meantime O'Sullivan just has to get an extra 3k transfers to pass her for the last seat.

Wallace should be safe especially if he transfers as well as Daly.

Loafing Oaf · 27-05-2019 7:57pm

normanoffside wrote: »

She'll be out I'd imagine.

Serious questions about Mary Lou and broader SF strategy if that happens:eek:

kippy · 27-05-2019 7:59pm

Uriel. wrote: »

That's how a lot of people vote, irrespective of the type of election. Sure look at the kinda crap candidates put forward as their mission/proposal, particularly in the locals

The reality is, from a legislature perspective none of the Irish meps can do much, if anything. Notwithstanding his good attendance and voting record, what has ming achieved in Brussels.

I will say Mairead McGuinness and Marian Harkin have done tremendous works for various causes while in Brussels, in terms of raising profiles for various issues, such as dementia, and have really championed the rights of those with dementia.
However, legislatively there is little power.

TBH, and I am neither for or against any of them but I've never heard any of the three actually achieve anything over there. Raising profiles of things is surely something they've all done but I'm not aware of one thing over another.

Just Saying · 27-05-2019 7:59pm

normanoffside wrote: »

She'll be out I'd imagine. Clune will pass her once Doyle goes. In the meantime O'Sullivan just has to get an extra 3k transfers to pass her for the last seat.

Wallace should be safe especially if he transfers as well as Daly.

Normally you would expect Doyle's transfers to see Clune pass O Riadh but the presence of 2 Wexford candidate Wallace and Byrne complicates matters.It's really hard to call.

igCorcaigh · 27-05-2019 8:05pm

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1133084985286635523?s=19

golfball37 · 27-05-2019 8:08pm

Just Saying wrote: »

Normally you would expect Doyle's transfers to see Clune pass O Riadh but the presence of 2 Wexford candidate Wallace and Byrne complicates matters.It's really hard to call.

I don’t see Doyle’s going to Clune in such numbers as to bridge a 15k gap to O Riadh personally

blanch152 · 27-05-2019 8:10pm

gmisk wrote: »

Lovely to see Naomi Long looking good for a seat in northern Ireland, she might even take the second seat which would be even more impressive

Stunning result in Northern Ireland, unless I have got some figures wrong.

In the last count, SDLP transfers were nearly 2:1 in favour of the Alliance. That is some rejection of Sinn Fein by a large section of the nationalist community.

Unionist First Preferences: 245,841
Nationalist First Preferences: 205,540
Green and Alliance: 118,399

Now that includes SDLP as nationalist which is questionable given the transfer outcome.

Sinn Fein topped the poll, and they will be crowing about that, but they only got 22% of the vote. That is down from 25.5% in 2014. What is happening to the demographic inevitability of a united Ireland?

normanoffside · 27-05-2019 8:10pm

Just Saying wrote: »

Normally you would expect Doyle's transfers to see Clune pass O Riadh but the presence of 2 Wexford candidate Wallace and Byrne complicates matters.It's really hard to call.

FG will hoover up a lot of the Labour transfers too.
That's 60k votes between Doyle and Nunan.
Clune only needs 15k of them to pass NiRiada

Just Saying · 27-05-2019 8:12pm

golfball37 wrote: »

I don’t see Doyle’s going to Clune in such numbers as to bridge a 15k gap to O Riadh personally

I wouldn't either but with so many eliminations to take place before Doyle it is imposible to know what the gap will be.If its 10/12k Clune would have a real chance .

namloc1980 · 27-05-2019 8:14pm

Just noticed that the constituencies seems to very out of whack. In the South total electorate of 1.417m with 5 seats and Dublin 0.884m has 4 seats. Quite the difference.

charlie14 · 27-05-2019 8:14pm

Wallace looks nailed on for the second seat in South.

blanch152 · 27-05-2019 8:14pm

Fan of Netflix wrote: »

Watching the transfers in Dublin MEP race. Sinn Fein still as transfer toxic as ever. You'd think someone like Lynn Boylan might get more transfers, but Barry Andrews got around 300 more than her from Alice Higgins votes. Think we can safely call it now Lynn Boylan and Sinn Fein lose a seat. Total disaster for Sinn Fein.

After Count 12, Boylan only got 2,343 transfers from Solidarity's 14,358.

Labour, Social Democrats and FG (Durkan) still to go out and nobody elected.

She won't catch Daly and the gap to Andrews is still over 9,000.

It would take Labour voters going for Sinn Fein en masse to get her there. Can't see it.

Christy42 · 27-05-2019 8:18pm

Eric Cartman wrote: »

in the same way as it would have had no impact from the presidential office but it shows the government the barometer of the country.

His stance on immigration does have relevance in the EU , but the other comments would be more about exposure. When it looked like the green party were going to green sweep it, leo came right out and said 'ok, we know what the people want' , if casey got elected to europe you hope they'd take the same kind of message home.

The greens did decently for Europe (not as good as polls but better than expected) and did great in the locals. They did this across the different areas of the country. This decently for Europe includes Topping one of the polls with 17%.

Most anti immigration candidates got kicked home with very little of the vote. Casey was the only one to get anywhere and is still struggling for a seat. Casey struggling to get into a seat that won't even exist for a while is not a message.

Just Saying · 27-05-2019 8:21pm

normanoffside wrote: »

FG will hoover up a lot of the Labour transfers too.
That's 60k votes between Doyle and Nunan.
Clune only needs 15k of them to pass NiRiada

Maybe but it might not be as clearcut as that.There are 85k of smaller party/independent votes to be distributed before Nunan.The majority of these are left leaning which should favour O Riadh but you never know.

Also this assumes that O Sullivan will pass O Riadh which is likely but not certain.

blanch152 · 27-05-2019 8:22pm

golfball37 wrote: »

I don’t see Doyle’s going to Clune in such numbers as to bridge a 15k gap to O Riadh personally

A 50% transfer rate from Doyle to Clune will see Clune ahead of Ni Riadh by 4k.

Ni Riadh needs 40k votes to reach the quota, where are they going to come from? Wallace will hoover up the Solidarity votes, the Labour ones will go to the Greens and to a lesser extent FG.

An Ciarraioch · 27-05-2019 8:25pm

charlie14 wrote: »

Wallace looks nailed on for the second seat in South.

Third - Kelleher will be elected before him.

golfball37 · 27-05-2019 8:26pm

blanch152 wrote: »

A 50% transfer rate from Doyle to Clune will see Clune ahead of Ni Riadh by 4k.

Ni Riadh needs 40k votes to reach the quota, where are they going to come from? Wallace will hoover up the Solidarity votes, the Labour ones will go to the Greens and to a lesser extent FG.

I didn’t say she would but I see her finishing ahead of Clune who will get GOS elected imo

normanoffside · 27-05-2019 8:28pm

Walsh got just over a third of McGuinness' surplus.

McHugh, Ming and Casey picked up over 1k each too.

An Ciarraioch · 27-05-2019 8:28pm

Christy42 wrote: »

The greens did decently for Europe (not as good as polls but better than expected) and did great in the locals. They did this across the different areas of the country. This decently for Europe includes Topping one of the polls with 17%.

Most anti immigration candidates got kicked home with very little of the vote. Casey was the only one to get anywhere and is still struggling for a seat. Casey struggling to get into a seat that won't even exist for a while is not a message.

And, if, as expected, he runs for the Dáil as an independent in Donegal, and gets elected, he would have even less influence than the Healy-Raes.

charlie14 · 27-05-2019 8:33pm

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Third - Kelleher will be elected before him.

Possibly but there are a lot of Indo`s to be eliminated before that and there is a PBP there as well with 15,000 FPV`s

Either way, both are in and like him or loath him it is an impressive performance from Wallace.

Jamie2k9 · 27-05-2019 8:33pm

Will be great if SF lose Ireland South.

Most say quiet an impressive performance for Irexit with over 10k votes for a person who was unknown 2-3 months ago and had little profile during the election (including no social media, Irexit account didn't mention her much). Liberal Dublin only gave Kelly 2k vote in comparison. They have 5 years to build again and long term could be a thorn in the side of FG and FF in future.

Mick W will do well from transfers.

Eric Cartman · 27-05-2019 8:33pm

normanoffside wrote: »

Walsh got just over a third of McGuinness' surplus.

McHugh, Ming and Casey picked up over 1k each too.

picked up 6k, so not a massive amount, casey could still clench it with FF transfers. Walsh won't have much more pickup from other candidates to be eliminated.

Just Saying · 27-05-2019 8:33pm

blanch152 wrote: »

A 50% transfer rate from Doyle to Clune will see Clune ahead of Ni Riadh by 4k.

Ni Riadh needs 40k votes to reach the quota, where are they going to come from? Wallace will hoover up the Solidarity votes, the Labour ones will go to the Greens and to a lesser extent FG.

Because of the number of votes which won't be transferable the quota is irrelevant for the fifth seat.

I might be wrong but with Wallace and Byrne will surely impact on the % of Doyle's votes going to Clune.Given that The Mc Guiness/Walsh transfer rate in Midlands/NW is at 40% and the Wexford factor I would give a wild guess at 30/35% Doyle to Clune.

God only knows what the gap will be at that stage though.

Coillte_Bhoy · 27-05-2019 8:34pm

normanoffside wrote: »

FG will hoover up a lot of the Labour transfers too.
That's 60k votes between Doyle and Nunan.
Clune only needs 15k of them to pass NiRiada

Well yes, if Ni Riada gets 0 transfers

Just Saying · 27-05-2019 8:36pm

Eric Cartman wrote: »

picked up 6k, so not a massive amount, casey could still clench it with FF transfers. Walsh won't have much more pickup from other candidates to be eliminated.

The Ming Flanagan tally analysis of the transfers of Rabbite and Smith show Walsh getting as many as Casey.

is_that_so · 27-05-2019 8:38pm

Eric Cartman wrote: »

picked up 6k, so not a massive amount, casey could still clench it with FF transfers. Walsh won't have much more pickup from other candidates to be eliminated.

No guarantee there will be many FF transfers nor that they will go to him in any numbers. Also not sure that your claims about Walsh are true either. She seems like the type who will get transfers.

Eric Cartman · 27-05-2019 8:39pm

Just Saying wrote: »

The Ming Flanagan tally analysis of the transfers of Rabbite and Smith show Walsh getting as many as Casey.

shall wait and see how it plays out. I would find it odd that somebody would go FF --> FG 'new kid'

is_that_so · 27-05-2019 8:40pm

Just Saying wrote: »

The Ming Flanagan tally analysis of the transfers of Rabbite and Smith show Walsh getting as many as Casey.

Yep, she'll pick them up all over. There's a reason why her FPVs were quite strong.

Boom__Boom · 27-05-2019 8:40pm

The three Sinn Fein candidates in 2014 got 323,000 FPV

The three Sinn Fein candidates in 2019 got 196,078 FPV

A decreases of 127,222 FPVs or 40%.

Overall that's a massive pasting.

Boylan is dead in the water and has done dismally in terms of transfers - the worry for Mary Lou now is if the same happens to Ni Riada and Carthy.

is_that_so · 27-05-2019 8:43pm

Eric Cartman wrote: »

shall wait and see how it plays out. I would find it odd that somebody would go FF --> FG 'new kid'

Both partes will give a nominal number of transfers to each other in any election. It's the effect of voters going down the list. Non-transferables could be very high. Carthy, Walsh and Casey will get votes from them but it may not be massive.

European Parliament Elections 2019

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