Betting Thread Part III - Insert witty title here

sydthebeat · 28-08-2018 4:30pm

bet of the weekend for me is Edinburgh away +7 against ospreys

followed by scarlets +1 against ulster

on both, and a sneaky double too.

The real mccoy 91 · 28-08-2018 5:14pm

Flicking through the outright markets today and some value caught my eye banahan @33/1 and naiyavoro @16/1 top tryscorer in the premiership I also think Lowe should be shorted than 6/1 for pro 14 top tryscorer so I've thrown a couple of doubles together

thomond2006 · 31-08-2018 12:54pm

I took Munster -23. A bit of uncertainty given the lineups but I couldn't say no to that spread.

aloooof · 31-08-2018 1:52pm

thomond2006 wrote: »

I took Munster -23. A bit of uncertainty given the lineups but I couldn't say no to that spread.

Spread was 23 as well last year and they beat it comfortably, with Wootton getting 4 tries if I recall. It's a large spread to cover but I'd fancy them to repeat the trick again.

The real mccoy 91 · 04-09-2018 10:14am

Took a look to see if they had any games priced up for this weekend yesterday they had leicester as 5 point favourites against newcastle then last night they sacked Matt o Connor and this morning they are 7 point favourites I don't understand that at all

thomond2006 · 04-09-2018 11:15am

The real mccoy 91 wrote: »

Took a look to see if they had any games priced up for this weekend yesterday they had leicester as 5 point favourites against newcastle then last night they sacked Matt o Connor and this morning they are 7 point favourites I don't understand that at all

It makes perfect sense to me. When an unpopular coach gets sacked you normally see an improved performance almost immediately.

thomond2006 · 04-09-2018 11:17am

Kings +18 at the Dragons is interesting. It was 27-16 to Zebre last week before they scored a late try with two Kings players in the bin.

Del.Monte · 05-09-2018 4:46pm

Had a good outing with try scorers in last week's Munster vs Cheetahs game and the winnings all committed to the Wallabies v Boks match this weekend. The Boks are a shambles and the Wallabies are going to kill them - Folau is back in the squad too.

Taken

Wallabies to win @ 4/7

Wallabies to win by -5 @ 10/11

And the unlikely Draw @ 25/1

Money for jam.

The real mccoy 91 · 06-09-2018 10:09am

A few that have caught my eye for this week
Exeter -3 against wasps I'll also be looking to extend this handicap when it's priced up maybe around -8 or so I think wasps need sopoaga and le roux back before they will click into gear and Exeter very strong again.

Gloucester +3 against bath I expect big things from Gloucester this year and with cipriani looking to make a statement to keep his place in the England squad I think they have a much better backline than bath and will score plenty.

Australia -5 against sa with jantjies playing 10 I'll also be looking at a higher handicap he is simply dreadful and not good enough for the level imo I like the decision to play beale at 10 and expect and much better Aussie outfit this week especially with folau back -5 is generous

aloooof · 06-09-2018 10:14am

Just had a look myself, Bristol +23 away to Saracens? Surprised it's that much, especially after Bristol's win over Bath last weekend.

sydthebeat · 06-09-2018 10:51am

NZ -28
Aus - 5

singles
and a double on both

Aus to win +13 @ 23/10

Leinstertomas · 07-09-2018 4:05pm

Munster +8
Ulster -2.5 at HT
Double at 2/1

Also put a quid on both Murphy 9/1 and Coetzee 11/1 MOTM

Del.Monte · 08-09-2018 3:31pm

Del.Monte wrote: »

Had a good outing with try scorers in last week's Munster vs Cheetahs game and the winnings all committed to the Wallabies v Boks match this weekend. The Boks are a shambles and the Wallabies are going to kill them - Folau is back in the squad too.

Taken

Wallabies to win @ 4/7

Wallabies to win by -5 @ 10/11

And the unlikely Draw @ 25/1

Money for jam.

Lol - I just about got out with shirt intact. Fortunately, I was at home so no money was spent on drink.

The real mccoy 91 · 08-09-2018 8:17pm

The real mccoy 91 wrote: »

A few that have caught my eye for this week
Exeter -3 against wasps I'll also be looking to extend this handicap when it's priced up maybe around -8 or so I think wasps need sopoaga and le roux back before they will click into gear and Exeter very strong again.

Gloucester +3 against bath I expect big things from Gloucester this year and with cipriani looking to make a statement to keep his place in the England squad I think they have a much better backline than bath and will score plenty.

Australia -5 against sa with jantjies playing 10 I'll also be looking at a higher handicap he is simply dreadful and not good enough for the level imo I like the decision to play beale at 10 and expect and much better Aussie outfit this week especially with folau back -5 is generous

2 out of 3 slightly hard done by with injuries for the Aussies and the handicap had went down to 2 but profit nonetheless

thomond2006 · 10-09-2018 5:30pm

None of the Pro14 spreads stand out to me bar possibly Benetton +19. However as much as they've started well I get the feeling they are always close to taking a hammering and Scarlets look very strong. I'll keep an eye on the weather forecast for that one.

Flashdean · 13-09-2018 9:06am

Edinburgh -8 against connacht is appealing ... looks like that's the bet for me ..

A different animal at home... 8wins from last 9 at home in pro 14..

thomond2006 · 13-09-2018 2:59pm

There isn't much value I can see in the 'caps this weekend, though I might put a small bet on Tadhg Beirne try in 80 mins @ 4/1. He scored seven tries in the Pro14 last season.

sydthebeat · 13-09-2018 3:08pm

got on glasgow -7 earlier in the week (gone to -9 now)
and also gone with zebre +6

and a double on both

vapor trails · 14-09-2018 4:43pm

Ospreys have won their first two matches and top their pool. Can someone tell me why they are 24pts inferior to Munster?

kuang1 · 14-09-2018 4:46pm

Wait for it...

Buer · 14-09-2018 4:50pm

vapor trails wrote: »

Ospreys have won their first two matches and top their pool. Can someone tell me why they are 24pts inferior to Munster?

They're putting out pretty much an entirely second string side.

Del.Monte · 14-09-2018 10:37pm

vapor trails wrote: »

Ospreys have won their first two matches and top their pool. Can someone tell me why they are 24pts inferior to Munster?

Mmmm!

sydthebeat · 16-09-2018 7:48am

sydthebeat wrote: »

got on glasgow -7 earlier in the week (gone to -9 now)
and also gone with zebre +6

and a double on both

Great weekend all round for me this time.

Id a few others which came in as well ðŸ˜Šincluding nugget as anytime try scorer.. And Duhan vdm as first try scorer.

thomond2006 · 19-09-2018 7:25pm

Cheetahs +8 vs Ulster
Cardiff +2 vs Munster
Kings +24 vs Glasgow
Connacht scr vs Scarlets
Dragons -5 vs Zebre
Leinster -17 vs Edinburgh
Ospreys -11 vs Benetton

Benetton is probably the pick of those handicaps, followed by Munster. The bookies are still underrating Benetton, although Ospreys will likely put a full side after sending the U20s to Munster. Still, Benetton almost earned two points at Scarlets despite being down to 14 for the majority of the game.

sydthebeat · 19-09-2018 7:29pm

Yeah I'd expect munster to be more than 1 score ahead by the end.

Depends on munster line up but I expect a healthy enough 23

aloooof · 26-09-2018 10:38am

Connacht favourites vs Leinster, surprised at that, even with it being in the Sports Ground.

sydthebeat · 26-09-2018 10:45am

aloooof wrote: »

Connacht favourites vs Leinster, surprised at that, even with it being in the Sports Ground.

leinster 6 points ahead of 3rd placed scarlets already

im expecting a very much second string leinster team and a full strength connacht team.

personally i wouldnt be touching that bet until i saw the teams

thomond2006 · 26-09-2018 11:52am

thomond2006 wrote: »

Cheetahs +8 vs Ulster
Cardiff +2 vs Munster
Kings +24 vs Glasgow
Connacht scr vs Scarlets
Dragons -5 vs Zebre
Leinster -17 vs Edinburgh
Ospreys -11 vs Benetton

Benetton is probably the pick of those handicaps, followed by Munster. The bookies are still underrating Benetton, although Ospreys will likely put a full side after sending the U20s to Munster. Still, Benetton almost earned two points at Scarlets despite being down to 14 for the majority of the game.

:rolleyes:

aloooof · 28-09-2018 12:30pm

sydthebeat wrote: »

leinster 6 points ahead of 3rd placed scarlets already

im expecting a very much second string leinster team and a full strength connacht team.

personally i wouldnt be touching that bet until i saw the teams

Pretty much full strength Leinster, they've moved to 1/2. Some really big spreads this weekend, 5 of the 7 games have a 14+ point margin.

sydthebeat · 28-09-2018 12:39pm

aloooof wrote: »

Pretty much full strength Leinster, they've moved to 1/2. Some really big spreads this weekend, 5 of the 7 games have a 14+ point margin.

yeah theres been a 7 point swing already, and possibly might end up leinster -8 favs.

I got on at -4

Surprising team, but i wonder what that means for munster game.

bristol +1 against saints is my nap for the weekend

aloooof · 28-09-2018 1:49pm

Saracens 28 points favourites vs Bath at the Allianz, surprised the spread is that big.

Leinstertomas · 28-09-2018 4:19pm

Benneton, Zebre and Connacht all to win at 60/1. Worth a quid

thomond2006 · 01-10-2018 4:11pm

Friday:
Edinburgh -14 vs Cheetahs
Glasgow -25 vs Zebre
Ulster -8 vs Connacht

Saturday:
Scarlets -8 vs Ospreys
Dragons +5 vs Cardiff
Leinster -9 vs Munster
Benetton -19 vs Kings

Cardiff -5 stands out here.

sydthebeat · 01-10-2018 5:51pm

treviso -19 looks tasty

they are well able to put up a big score (45+) at home... just wonder if their defense can hold tight enough to less than 3 tries

Juwwi · 01-10-2018 7:40pm

There isn't one + cap that overly stands out to me as a good bet .

thomond2006 · 02-10-2018 11:41am

I took Munster +9 against my better judgement.

sydthebeat · 02-10-2018 11:52am

Ulster spread dropping...... connacht now +7

Del.Monte · 04-10-2018 12:44pm

Gone with a famous Munster win at 3/1 - easy money.

Del.Monte · 06-10-2018 8:49pm

Del.Monte wrote: »

Gone with a famous Munster win at 3/1 - easy money.

Oh well, but for the third week in a row I'm well ahead on PP - thanks to Aaron Smith this time.

Elvisjuice · 06-10-2018 9:15pm

Del.Monte wrote: »

Oh well, but for the third week in a row I'm well ahead on PP - thanks to Aaron Smith this time.

how are you well ahead with 3 losing bets ?

sydthebeat · 06-10-2018 10:07pm

sydthebeat wrote: »

treviso -19 looks tasty

they are well able to put up a big score (45+) at home... just wonder if their defense can hold tight enough to less than 3 tries

Happy days...

Great day all round actually.
I don't like after timing but I was delighted with my Ross Byrne MOTM @8/1
and James Lowe @7/1 first try scorer.

And put onto that singles on treviso - 19 and Cardiff - 5 and a double on those two.

Del.Monte · 06-10-2018 10:49pm

Elvisjuice wrote: »

how are you well ahead with 3 losing bets ?

It's not really that complicated surely - it depends how much was on each bet. I am up more than 30%.

sydthebeat · 07-10-2018 6:45pm

hard to see exeter -7 not being great value currently...... even if mathewson is deemed fit.

munsters discipline is a real problem and exeter play a very, very suffocating pressurising game ... steensons on fire
giving home advantage as a 7 pointer that would assume these teams are on parity which i dont think is the case at all.

add a days less repair for munster, after a titanic game against leinster, and exeters relatively easy away 5 pointer v bath.

sydthebeat · 09-10-2018 9:23pm

Munster drifting out to +9 now

The wet weather normally equals things out, but in the case probably works to Exeters favour.

I don't expect the spread to move much from here...

razorblunt · 09-10-2018 9:30pm

Wasps 4/5 for +15.5 is there chat they’re sending out a weakened team or something?

sydthebeat · 09-10-2018 10:14pm

razorblunt wrote: »

Wasps 4/5 for +15.5 is there chat they’re sending out a weakened team or something?

Maybe not by choice.
Robson is a big player for them and he's long term injured now.
Hughes will probably be looking at a ban.

Put on that the fact they're playing very inconsistently.... They're third in league but very much "best of the rest" with a pd of only +1

On a dry track leinster should eat them up at home

Zzippy · 09-10-2018 10:18pm

sydthebeat wrote: »

Maybe not by choice.
Robson is a big player for them and he's long term injured now.
Hughes will probably be looking at a ban.

Put on that the fact they're playing very inconsistently.... They're third in league but very much "best of the rest" with a pd of only +1

On a dry track leinster should eat them up at home

Have you seen the forecast for Fiday?

sydthebeat · 09-10-2018 10:29pm

Zzippy wrote: »

Have you seen the forecast for Fiday?

Yep

sydthebeat · 11-10-2018 3:07pm

a quick word on some of the spread movements

Leinster stared at -14 and gone to -17
Looks like it might actually be dry and breezy for the game so that could still equate to value if they are chasing a TBP with 15 to go.

Munster started at +7 and gone to +9.
Looks like the worst of the weather will have passed by the time they kick off at 3:15
Exeter will have their sights firmly on reaching the latter stages and will be looking to put down a marker in this game against a traditional European stronghouse. Munster were better away against leinster than they have been away so far this season, however exeter is a different challange, and play in a manner that really doesnt suit this current munster team..... but still, its munster in europe, and as 2017 showed, they can never be discounted..... +9 looks about 2 or 3 points value to exeter imo.

Ulster started -3 and have shortened to -2.
This game is a hard call as both teams arent playing to their potential, with backroom turmoil in Leicester and injury table turmoil in ulster.
However, with relegation a real possibility for Leicester this season they may just be holding their powder for the premiership and home european games. leceister are coming from a really really galvanising win against saints last weekend, where they put out their strongest possibly team. Toomua is back, tuilagi is back humming, Jonny may has some question marks but could be likely.....

im on the fence here... definitely one to wait to see the team sheets to see what team Leicester send over which will be a strong indication as to how they will approach the game

no odds yet on connacht v begles
again, form is hard to gauge here as the french teams continue their schizophrenic home / away trait... with bordeaux having beating both la rochelle and clermont at home this season, and yet lost away to bottom feeders grenoble and agen ......

edit: at a guess, id have connacht -5

sydthebeat · 12-10-2018 2:58pm

bordeaux sending their seconds over...... connacht -12 is worth a punt for me.

Betting Thread Part III - Insert witty title here

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