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Charts ( Up to T120 ) Winter 2020 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

1235

Comments

  • #202
    esposito
    Registered Users Posts: 1,394 ✭✭✭esposito


    Rebelbrowser wrote: »
    JS I really, really don't understand this viewpoint given your predilection for cold and snow. We are in Ireland. Most years we don't get snow or nothing to speak of. This year most of us have had some already. There are now at least 3 days of potential snow showers just 48 hours away. All models show this. How in the name of God is there anything, literally anything , disappointing about that? If I get lying snow for 3 days it can be 26c on Thursday for all I care.

    Too many folk on here look past T120 on the models (me included) That’s the one negative of model watching. We sometimes fail to see the positives in the short term. Let’s enjoy and hopefully cherish these 3 or 4 days of proper cold and snow flurries/showers.


  • #203
    munsterlegend
    Registered Users Posts: 6,186 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    Rebelbrowser wrote: »
    JS I really, really don't understand this viewpoint given your predilection for cold and snow. We are in Ireland. Most years we don't get snow or nothing to speak of. This year most of us have had some already. There are now at least 3 days of potential snow showers just 48 hours away. All models show this. How in the name of God is there anything, literally anything , disappointing about that? If I get lying snow for 3 days it can be 26c on Thursday for all I care.

    He posted that just before 5am. Also he hadn’t seen the ECM which delays the onset of milder weather.


  • #204
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,167 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    munsterlegend wrote: »
    He posted that just before 5am. Also he hadn’t seen the ECM which delays the onset of milder weather.

    Hadn't spotted that. Easy to be cranky at that hour I suppose!


  • #205
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    In a nutshell
    Very cold sunday-weak wintry streamers
    Mon-wenesday increasingly heavy streamers for many but not all
    Some seeing several cm's/white outs/temporary blizzards
    Ice days probable for some
    Pot luck as to who sees little or none in the favoured areas
    Spell of continuous snow possible for many Thursday that could stall leaving some under heavy snow for several hours under a front that may not actually progress fully through meaning rain on its southern side or a thaw for all but this is unresolved as its FI still (but a likely outcome)
    What the **** are people complaining about?


  • #206
    mcburns07
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,097 ✭✭✭mcburns07


    AuntySnow wrote: »
    In a nutshell
    Very cold sunday-weak wintry streamers
    Mon-wenesday increasingly heavy streamers for many but not all
    Some seeing several cm's/white outs/temporary blizzards
    Ice days probable for some
    Pot luck as to who sees little or none in the favoured areas
    Spell of continuous snow possible for many Thursday that could stall leaving some under heavy snow for several hours under a front that may not actually progress fully through meaning rain on its southern side or a thaw for all but this is unresolved as its FI still (but a likely outcome)
    What the **** are people complaining about?

    Friday :pac:


  • #207
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,916 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    AuntySnow wrote: »
    In a nutshell
    Very cold sunday-weak wintry streamers
    Mon-wenesday increasingly heavy streamers for many but not all
    Some seeing several cm's/white outs/temporary blizzards
    Ice days probable for some
    Pot luck as to who sees little or none in the favoured areas
    Spell of continuous snow possible for many Thursday that could stall leaving some under heavy snow for several hours under a front that may not actually progress fully through meaning rain on its southern side or a thaw for all but this is unresolved as its FI still (but a likely outcome)
    What the **** are people complaining about?

    Indeed, the potential intensity of those showers is increasing.

    icon-0-114.png?05-06


  • #208
    Reckless Abandonment
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,509 ✭✭✭Reckless Abandonment


    Gfs 6z has Wednesdays low a bit more to the south at 108


  • #209
    KingdomRushed
    Registered Users Posts: 471 ✭✭KingdomRushed


    The GFS 6z is a slight upgrade. It has the second low a tad weaker and perhaps a slightly higher pressure around greenland. It is suggestive of a few more hours of deep cold, perhaps into Thursday morning. Only tiny adjustments are required to make a 3 day cold spell into a 5 day.


  • #210
    BullBauld
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 842 ✭✭✭BullBauld


    AuntySnow wrote: »
    In a nutshell
    Very cold sunday-weak wintry streamers
    Mon-wenesday increasingly heavy streamers for many but not all
    Some seeing several cm's/white outs/temporary blizzards
    Ice days probable for some
    Pot luck as to who sees little or none in the favoured areas
    Spell of continuous snow possible for many Thursday that could stall leaving some under heavy snow for several hours under a front that may not actually progress fully through meaning rain on its southern side or a thaw for all but this is unresolved as its FI still (but a likely outcome)
    What the **** are people complaining about?

    How far inland do you think the streamers will get... basically is Roscommon a possibility?


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  • #211
    Reckless Abandonment
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,509 ✭✭✭Reckless Abandonment


    Gfs 6z carry on the same theme. Cold and snowy mainly in the east. Breakdown from Thursday.


  • #212
    piplip87
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,147 ✭✭✭piplip87


    Look at the percip type chart on the GFS, has me buried under streamers from Tuesday till Wednesday and a chance of some frontal action on Thursday.

    Also looking like Sunday night and Monday night could be cold, clear and frosty.

    While not what I was hoping for. It will do the job lovely. I need the back yard to freeze over so I can get out and clean the dog poo, the other half will stop moaning about the mess the dogs leave after been in the swamp, and we get 2 possibly three snow days which will be a fantastic break from the rain and allow us to get out for a few walks with the kids and dogs.

    Been cooped up these past few weeks has been extremely stressful.


  • #213
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    BullBauld wrote: »
    How far inland do you think the streamers will get... basically is Roscommon a possibility?

    Some will make it all the way across the country
    For Roscommon it depends on where in the Irish sea showers trains develop
    I wouldn't be surprised to see them reach Athlone,so as that's on the Roscommon border,I would not be surprised if they reached into your coynty
    Further south,I've heard,manhattan is complaining about the Aran Islands shadow:D


  • #214
    KingdomRushed
    Registered Users Posts: 471 ✭✭KingdomRushed


    A few GFS ensembles blow up a low again over eastern England on Wednesday which has the nice effect of dragging exceptionally cold air in from eastern scotland all the way in over Ireland, bringing sub -12 uppers. Would love if such a scenario became more likely. The 6z ensembles are marginally delaying the mild air, perhaps by about 6 hours or so from the 0z. I think there is still time for changes yet. So much is dependent on the finest of margins of what happens in the western atlantic over Monday and Tuesday and how that low is shaped and its timing.


  • #215
    KingdomRushed
    Registered Users Posts: 471 ✭✭KingdomRushed


    anim_ejp3.gif


  • #216
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 6,017 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    Shepards Delight wrote: »
    Ya no mystic megs but it gives people false hopes so this thread even though i observe it and see what it is all about those models seem to change with a blink of an eye . So its better many of us stick to other platforms and it seems to be better to not look to more than 3 or 4 days ahead on any forecast we see . A week or 2 weeks ahead can and does change . Predictions are waste of time and people are wasting there own time by posting up predictions . Email mystic meg for a forecast maybe ��

    This is the FI thread on a weather enthusiasts forum. If their is potential for snowy cold weather showing in the models for a week or two time we will talk about it and we will follow it as long as it is showing, when there are upgrades we get excited.

    If people can't read between the lines and see this thread for what it is and not take everything written here as an exact forecast from the gospel of MET then that is on them and maybe like you said you would be better off on other platforms.


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  • #217
    gerrybhoy
    Registered Users Posts: 514 ✭✭✭gerrybhoy


    KingdomRushed wrote: »
    anim_ejp3.gif
    Take it that's good(ish) :confused:


  • #218
    United road
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 223 ✭✭United road


    KingdomRushed wrote: »
    A few GFS ensembles blow up a low again over eastern England on Wednesday which has the nice effect of dragging exceptionally cold air in from eastern scotland all the way in over Ireland, bringing sub -12 uppers. Would love if such a scenario became more likely. The 6z ensembles are marginally delaying the mild air, perhaps by about 6 hours or so from the 0z. I think there is still time for changes yet. So much is dependent on the finest of margins of what happens in the western atlantic over Monday and Tuesday and how that low is shaped and its timing.

    Pretty exciting times right now.
    Model watching right now (im more watch the model watchers and listen to their considered opinion) is up and down over coming 10 days and possible extension to cold or reloads mentioned, and all the while some snow and cold on the way for 3 or 4 days while looking ahead.
    Fantastic!
    Whats not to like!


  • #219
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,916 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Shepards Delight wrote: »
    Ya no mystic megs but it gives people false hopes so this thread even though i observe it and see what it is all about those models seem to change with a blink of an eye . So its better many of us stick to other platforms and it seems to be better to not look to more than 3 or 4 days ahead on any forecast we see . A week or 2 weeks ahead can and does change . Predictions are waste of time and people are wasting there own time by posting up predictions . Email mystic meg for a forecast maybe ��


    I don't think the "event" thread has been that inaccurate. If you read the OP it may as well have been written today to all intents and purposes. The forecast really hasn't changed much if at all.

    Some choose not to read the text and that's fine.

    There is even a number of disclaimers included! :eek:

    The whole purpose of this thread is model observations for the period ahead up to Day 5. Perfectly fine and no one that I can see is hyping up anything unreasonably.


  • #220
    Nqp15hhu
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    The details of cold spell are firming up. Air temperatures initially appear to be coldest in Ulster (because the sea track is shorter).

    Highs of 1-2c here, maybe 3c in the SE. Up to 3-4c on the Eastern swathe of the island. Freezing levels between 200-300 metres. The rest of the island cools down to 1-3c on Monday.

    There is a very limited diurnal range with temperatures only falling to -3c in the north west. I am not sure if this is down to wind strength or cloud, but it seems odd.

    (I reckon -5/-6c could be achieved in some sheltered parts of Tyrone etc)..

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  • #221
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,072 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Models fairly tightly grouped with that area of LP off the SW on Tuesday, some showing it making it on to the coast giving some light wintry precipitation but very weak at best for now. A little nudge N and could get some snow out of it, might send in a trough or two. Looks quite breezy if not windy and fairly blustery on the coasts, would get a savage wind chill with that , feeling like -2 to -6C or there about during daylight hours.

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  • #222
    space2ground1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 569 ✭✭✭space2ground1


    How are the experts feeling about the 12h ECM today in terms of Monday - Wednesday this week? I'm hoping the quiet in the up to 120 tech thread is not a negative development?


  • #223
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,072 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Cold onshore fresh breeze along Eastern coasts becoming more noticeable by tomorrow, getting fresh on Monday and penetrating inland, looks' like getting fairly windy across the country on Tuesday and would imagine that if there are snow showers they could be brought well inland. Thursday looking quite windy across the country, maybe not a yellow warning atm by itself but combined with the expected frontal snow will add to difficult conditions . ECM showing snowfall moving up from the SW/ S early Thurs. widespread snowfall with following rain in the SW and S but that is to be fine tuned over the coming days, ECM hasn't deviated much from this over the last few days.

    Some very cold wind-chill readings, in general below 0C and well below on Tuesday and Thurs .

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  • #224
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,916 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Good GFS this evening. Snow showers at times in the east and even sub -12c 850 hpa isotherm in to the Irish Sea.


  • #225
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 6,017 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    Good GFS this evening. Snow showers at times in the east and even sub -12c 850 hpa isotherm in to the Irish Sea.

    And a 24 hour snowstorm on Thursday


  • #226
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,916 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    TheMilkyPirate wrote: »
    And a 24 hour snowstorm on Thursday

    The cold air hanging on in the east right through Friday. Major snow event alright.


  • #227
    nacho libre
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,962 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Ah you are all here.:o What a fantastic run! It's almost too good to be true. I will be fearing a big downgrade come the run in the small hours


  • #228
    Neddyusa
    Registered Users Posts: 1,052 ✭✭✭Neddyusa


    How are the short-range models looking for Thursday or is it too soon yet?


  • #229
    BringBackMick
    Registered Users Posts: 1,099 ✭✭✭BringBackMick


    Off the phone with my uncle in law from Falcarragh he says it’s he know from the feel of the wind this evening that there are big snows ahead.

    He said the field cats have scurried inside and are hiding inside the house due to the chill.

    He’s been chopping wood all day!! Aunty Nora Has spent the day cooking bread and pies incase the electric goes! Full preparatory work in north Donegal today!


  • #230
    Donegal Storm
    Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭Donegal Storm


    Neddyusa wrote: »
    How are the short-range models looking for Thursday or is it too soon yet?

    Arpege shows a messy marginal situation with the front breaking up over the midlands. Too early to take anything seriously yet though

    anim_xjn9.gif


  • #231
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,963 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Neddyusa wrote: »
    How are the short-range models looking for Thursday or is it too soon yet?

    too soon yet. I can see this going 3 possible ways.

    1 - a snow to rain event with milder conditions everywhere by Saturday/Sunday with a rapid thaw of any lying snow.
    2 - A snow to rain event for the south west and west, stalls over midlands or leinster, decent lying snow in many eastern, northern and midland areas and cold continental but dry conditions push it back out into the atlantic.
    3 - The low side swipes Ireland and we remain mostly dry and cold with frost/fog becoming more of a problem into next weekend.


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  • #232
    Tyrone212
    Registered Users Posts: 1,570 ✭✭✭Tyrone212


    Donegal Storm wrote: »
    Arpege shows a messy marginal situation with the front breaking up over the midlands. Too early to take anything seriously yet though

    anim_xjn9.gif

    I think most weather enthusiasts would have enough if Thursday goes pear shaped.


  • #233
    nacho libre
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,962 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Gonzo wrote: »
    too soon yet. I can see this going 3 possible ways.

    1 - a snow to rain event with milder conditions everywhere by Saturday/Sunday with a rapid thaw of any lying snow.
    2 - A snow to rain event for the south west and west, stalls over midlands or leinster, decent lying snow in many eastern, northern and midland areas and cold continental but dry conditions push it back out into the atlantic.
    3 - The low side swipes Ireland and we remain mostly dry and cold with frost/fog becoming more of a problem into next weekend.
    I think option 2 is most likely to happen. Option 3 would be ok, but no,no, to option 1


  • #234
    pad199207
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,220 ✭✭✭pad199207


    nacho libre wrote: »
    I think option 2 is most likely to happen. Option 3 would be ok, but no,no, to option 1

    Indeed. If it’s definitely going to turn to all rain afterwards well then quite frankly it needn’t even snow to be honest.


  • #235
    Donegal Storm
    Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭Donegal Storm


    Tyrone212 wrote: »
    I think most weather enthusiasts would have enough if Thursday goes pear shaped.

    I learned long ago not to get too invested in watching the models, whatever happens happens!

    From what I have looked at the mild air breaks through even if there is a good dumping of snow so it'd likely be a slushy mess in no time. I'd still take that but it doesn't exactly look like the huge event the other thread seems to be building it up as


  • #236
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,916 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    ...


  • #237
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,916 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Shouldn't this thread be the one locked and the +120 open? :confused:


  • #238
    Danno
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Taking onboard some of the suggestions, please post here for the next few days: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/show...p?t=2058157847

    Locking this for a few days.


  • #239
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,963 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Mod note: I have decided to open this thread again since the cold spell is now coming to an end.

    A big change is on the way to much milder conditions from Saturday evening.

    Alot of wet weather to come over the next 4 to 5 days away from Dublin and the commuter belt. Looks very wet across southern, south-western and western areas with close to 100mm of rain in places.

    126-777UK.GIF?11-6

    Becoming very windy over the weekend and Sunday is looking rather nasty with strong gusts across the country.

    78-289UK.GIF?11-6

    Becoming much milder too with temperatures into double figures next week

    102-580UK.GIF?11-6


  • #240
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,072 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Staying breezy and getting windy again later Fri into Sat with the advancing front, possible warnings along Atlantic coasts.

    Sunday looks very windy across the country, has pepped up a lot over the last few runs, one to watch, high end yellow currently in Atlantic coastal counties possibly straying into Orange territory along coastal fringes I would reckon..

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  • #241
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,072 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    A rough wet day coming up on Sunday. Will feel relatively mild after the cold week getting up around 13C


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  • #242
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,072 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM 06Z bringing the strong winds in over the Atlantic coasts on Sunday ( been edging that way over the last few runs ) , GFS just keeping the strongest winds off the coast ( a bit weaker on this run but very consistent over the last few runs ), ICON and ARPEGE been showing various scenarios, latest is keeping the winds well off . UKMO the strongest well in over the Western coasts and strong winds overland. Sneaky fella this, could be an Orange warning yet along coastal counties and a good yellow for the rest of the country.

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  • #243
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,072 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Models fairly well aligned now . Strong winds up along Atlantic Counties, strongest in the West, very blustery overland. Winds going through quickly.

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  • #244
    Pangea
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    Is there any chance of it being named?


  • #245
    squarecircles
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,101 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    Status ORANGE WIND WARNING MAYO Galway DONEGAL


  • #246
    A_mc_b
    Registered Users Posts: 12 ✭A_mc_b


    Status Orange - Wind warning for Donegal, Galway and Mayo
    Met Éireann Weather Warning

    South to southwest winds will reach mean speeds of 65 to 80km/h with severe gusts in excess of 110km/h in the west. Where winds are onshore, there is a risk of coastal flooding.

    Valid: 12:00 Sunday 14/02/2021 to 16:00 Sunday 14/02/2021

    Issued: 11:00 Saturday 13/02/2021


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  • #247
    hamburgham
    Registered Users Posts: 1,046 ✭✭✭hamburgham


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    The cold air hanging on in the east right through Friday. Major snow event alright.

    Whoops.


  • #248
    MJohnston
    Registered Users Posts: 10,666 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    A_mc_b wrote: »
    Status Orange - Wind warning for Donegal, Galway and Mayo
    Met Éireann Weather Warning

    South to southwest winds will reach mean speeds of 65 to 80km/h with severe gusts in excess of 110km/h in the west. Where winds are onshore, there is a risk of coastal flooding.

    Valid: 12:00 Sunday 14/02/2021 to 16:00 Sunday 14/02/2021

    Issued: 11:00 Saturday 13/02/2021

    Storm Evert?


  • #249
    A_mc_b
    Registered Users Posts: 12 ✭A_mc_b


    MJohnston wrote: »
    Storm Evert?

    Its not been named as a storm from met eireann.


  • #250
    A_mc_b
    Registered Users Posts: 12 ✭A_mc_b


    The Orange Wind Warning has been updated and the times changed.

    Status Orange - Wind warning for Donegal, Galway and Mayo
    Met Éireann Weather Warning

    Update: South to southwest winds will reach mean speeds of 65 to 80km/h with severe gusts in excess of 110km/h in the west. Where winds are onshore, there is a risk of coastal flooding.

    Valid: 11:00 Sunday 14/02/2021 to 15:00 Sunday 14/02/2021

    Issued: 11:00 Saturday 13/02/2021

    Updated: 17:30 Saturday 13/02/2021


  • #251
    MJohnston
    Registered Users Posts: 10,666 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    A_mc_b wrote: »
    Its not been named as a storm from met eireann.

    That's odd, is it just because it's not an organised system or what?


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