Charts ( Up to T120 ) Winter 2020 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Kermit.de.frog

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Nqp15hhu

The models do seem to be showing snow for Northern, Northern Ireland on Saturday. It doesn't appear to stick at low levels, but the conditions are acceptable for low level snow fall.

This will probably head further south with time.

Soundings:




WRF




As this is only 60 hours out, I don't see the event turning to rain, it may shift location though.

pauldry

Personally I think it will be the Northeastern corner of Northern Ireland. Very few if any areas of the South at risk from this. However Sunday may be different

nacho libre

Kermit.de.frog

ECM has snow potential a little further south than that.

Nqp15hhu

No doubt snow AGAIN for the same people that received it out of a similar synoptic situation last week and the week before that.

These frontal systems rarely produce snow over Northern NI, it’s nearly always over SE Scotland or South Ulster. Never here.

Gonzo

This weekend is definitely trending a bit colder than expected for parts of the republic now also at risk of wintry precipitation this weekend. Yesterday the forecast for Meath was a cool weekend around 6 or 7C but now Saturday is down for 4C and Sunday only 2 or 3C.

Not sure if we'll get snow this far south but cold rain and sleet is a definite possibility. Some of the models are hinting at the possibility of a major sleet/snow event next Tuesday for north Leinster, north midlands and Donegal as well, but that's along way out.

Nqp15hhu

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

No doubt snow AGAIN for the same people that received it out of a similar synoptic situation last week and the week before that.

These frontal systems rarely produce snow over Northern NI, it’s nearly always over SE Scotland or South Ulster. Never here.

Maybe sell the boat and the plane and buy a little winter cottage up the wicklow mountains:)
The largest Atlantic systems tend to come in from the southwest usually
Its a climatological norm on this island
The wicklow mountains tend to be often placed just right to take advantage as is south Ulster
Thats what these are doing,though obviously a mountainy location further south is good
If you're not fond of Wicklow,the Galtee's are just as snowy

Reversal

ECM 00z for Saturday morning.

Kermit.de.frog

Similar on some of the higher resolution models which show increased wintriness through Saturday morning, not quite as optimistic as ECM

Gonzo

current sleet/snow projections by the ECM over the next 5 days or so. Take this with a large pinch of salt for now, could easily be just cold rain in reality but it's nice to see there is a chance.

Saturday looks cold and wintry particularly for Wicklow Mountains and Mourne Mountains. Wintry precipitation possible on lower ground but probably sleet/wet snow falling onto wet ground rather than lying snow.



ECM is also going for a prolonged spell of heavy sleet/wet snow on Sunday, this may transition back to cold rain before clearing.



ECM is going for a very wet day on Tuesday, but some of the other models are hinting that this could be wintry for north Leinster and Ulster. Too far away to tell right now.



All in all regardless of the precipitation type, looks like a very unsettled spell ahead over the next 5 days with no shortage of rain and sleet. Mountains may get a hammering.

Kermit.de.frog

GFS edges things further south for Saturday (and the snow line along with it)

Billcarson

JCX BXC wrote: »

Aw poor you.
I've not seen settled snow since 2018. I'm not crying about it!

My god you need to grow up, I'm sick to death of reading this childish nonsense in the threads. Seriously, others are possibly getting snow and you're begrudging like they've won the lotto.

I'd love some snow, but I'm aware of the climate, having lived here for decades.

Snow has the ability to do that to people! Its snow after all lol.

Gonzo

I would still be very cautious about this weekends's snow risk. The charts don't seem to take into account that there will be an onshore wind from the Irish sea and unless we are near the freezer that is usually curtains for snow during frontal events.

The weekend is now starting to look quite chilly indeed with temperatures generally 2 to 4C on Saturday/Sunday away from the far south and south-west. Dewpoints are marginal especially early on Saturday and from Sunday afternoon.

GFS is going for a slight dusting across the centre of the country but like last Saturday, amounts will be very small between 0.1 and 1cm.

highdef

Gonzo wrote: »

I would still be very cautious about this weekends's snow risk. The charts don't seem to take into account that there will be an onshore wind from the Irish sea and unless we are near the freezer that is usually curtains for snow during frontal events.

Had noticed that too. Unlike last weekend, when there was a light offshore breeze near the east coast, this weekend will see a keen easterly. Even if there is an identical setup this weekend as last, APART from the wind strength and direction, the east coast will likely just see cold rain or maybe some sleet or ice pellets mixed in.

Reversal

highdef wrote: »

Had noticed that too. Unlike last weekend, when there was a light offshore breeze near the east coast, this weekend will see a keen easterly. Even if there is an identical setup this weekend as last, APART from the wind strength and direction, the east coast will likely just see cold rain or maybe some sleet or ice pellets mixed in.

But does there come a point where the stronger onshore wind actually helps as it has less time to modify and we benefit from the long land track from Europe over the UK.

Tyrone212

Tomorrow I think M.E will issue a yellow snow warning for Central areas for the weekend.

nacho libre

Some places had more than a slight dusting last Saturday. It might not happen, but some places around the midlands and north of it could see a decent covering on Saturday.

Slashermcguirk

Yes defo not a light dusting here, about 5-6cm of snow in this part of Dublin

nacho libre wrote: »

Some places had more than a slight dusting last Saturday. It might not happen, but some places around the midlands and north of it could see a decent covering on Saturday.

highdef

Reversal wrote: »

But does there come a point where the stronger onshore wind actually helps as it has less time to modify and we benefit from the long land track from Europe over the UK.

Yes but in this case it will be (yet again) a marginal event, if it happens at all.

nacho libre

i know these are deceptive, that's not necessarily how much would accumulate, but nice to look at all the same- well maybe not for some members:)

And this could easily be a cold rain and sleet event for all of us on lower ground yet.

Gonzo

Probably a fair reality, cold rain for much of Leinster with that onshore wind off a fairly mild Irish sea with snow confined to high ground. Better chance of a dusting in the midlands and further west.

nacho libre

Gonzo wrote: »

Probably a fair reality, cold rain for much of Leinster with that onshore wind off a fairly mild Irish sea with snow confined to high ground. Better chance of a dusting in the midlands and further west.

Hopefully after a week or so, we won't be having to use the word marginal at all.

Donegal Ken

Might be no harm if a separate thread was started for the weekend. Sunday looks the best day for Snowfall to lower levels. Saturday at present looks set to be more of a mix of cold rain and sleet to lower level areas of Leinster, South Ulster and north Connacht with snow over the higher ground parts there.

Gonzo

Mod Note: I've had to delete over 20 posts about who's area or local mountain receives more snow. This is completely off topic. This is the technical discussion thread about charts/data over the next week. This is not a competition about which mountain in Ulster or Leinster does better. Any further off topic posts will be deleted. Now back to the model watching/charts.

Nqp15hhu

Gonzo wrote: »

Mod Note: I've had to delete over 20 posts about who's area or local mountain receives more snow. This is completely off topic. This is the technical discussion thread about charts/data over the next week. This is not a competition about which mountain in Ulster or Leinster does better. Any further off topic posts will be deleted. Now back to the model watching/charts.

Apologies for my part.

Nqp15hhu

Based on the 9Z and 6Z ICON run, colder air arrives into Northern NI this evening and stays over the general region to the end of the run.

The air appears to come form a North-easterly direction.

Freezing Levels

T-14


T-26


T-49


T-75


T-93


T-99


T-108


T-114


T-120


The air is cold enough for sea level snow with evaporative cooling and frontal situations, with surface temps of 3-4c most days. The cold air may head south later.

Frontal event appears to occur over Ulster between T-99 to T-120. But this will probably trend south as has happened with recent frontal events.

Nqp15hhu

Although, this airmass doesn't appear to be too saturated, which can lower the snow/rain line.

Dew points go negative from the early hours of tomorrow and quite a low snow/rain line.




















Nearly surface wet bulb zero lines too, which is very low (<300m needed for sea level snow).









So, this looks to be the type of airmass that can deliver snow showers at 3-4c.

Scrabbel

I heard somebody mentioning Icon charts for next Tuesday. Any views from the experts on here (and thanks as ever for sharing your knowledge).

Gonzo

Scrabbel wrote: »

I heard somebody mentioning Icon charts for next Tuesday. Any views from the experts on here (and thanks as ever for sharing your knowledge).

The Icon is still showing a potentially major wintry event for Tuesday. It's been showing this for the past 2 days. Not sure I agree with it as Tuesday/Wednesday are going to be relatively mild especially across the southern half of the country.



Majority of the other models are showing a generally very wet day on Tuesday of rain.