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Charts ( Up to T120 ) Winter 2020 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 23,295 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    gfs-2-78.png?12

    I'm liking more and more the look of this orientation of these fronts.

    May need a nice and reserved thread by tomorrow evening for developing snow potential on Wednesday


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,641 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    a week from now is also looking rather interesting for now.

    156-574UK.GIF?17-18

    162-778UK.GIF?17-18


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    I'm liking more and more the look of this orientation of these fronts.

    May need a nice and reserved thread by tomorrow evening for developing snow potential on Wednesday

    Banking it! :eek:


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,295 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    gfs-16-84.png?12

    kermit-601711_960_720.jpg


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,813 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Could be just a Sunday thing so everyone will be more excited for the week ahead. Again like the bad model runs it can all change but the general trend is the weather is getting colder and possibly much colder. Certainly different than the past few Winters


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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    gfs-16-84.png?12

    That'll do frog, that'll do.


  • Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,129 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    I'd bank that any day at this stage but it looks very slushy wet at that point.


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,295 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Crucial thing for Dublin area is to nab that onshore wind in time. We may just make it.

    anim_yzm3.gif

    This is evolving and the projected upper temperature profile is lowering with each run as well as the positioning of that chink in the frontal zone. Getting easily cold enough for a few hours of snow...

    anim_udv3.gif

    anim_ply8.gif


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,220 ✭✭✭Davaeo09


    https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/snow-risk
    been watching this every night for the past 3 (re Wednesdays potential) and WOAH thats an upgrade tonight! Looking forward to MT's forecast the in the morning!
    (or is this still too far out for reliability?)
    Is it likely to change allot still?
    With those above graphs is it most likely to be heaviest from the Midlands to the inland South East?

    Also @ Kermit love the pic!


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,295 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Why thank you.

    Just caught the latest GFS for this period and also ICON which is moving the same direction but not quite there yet. I'll do a thread for flooding and potentially heavy snowfall later this morning.

    Snow most likely over east/southeast Leinster and Munster. Could be disruptive amounts for some.

    66-574UK.GIF?18-0


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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Ah here now...


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,149 ✭✭✭PukkaStukka


    G'wan the Frog ! :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 471 ✭✭KingdomRushed


    GFS 6z really downgrades the snow potential with the front further south on Wednesday.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,131 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    GFS 6z really downgrades the snow potential with the front further south on Wednesday.

    Can’t see anything except for high ground as in hills/mountains.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,507 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Could be wintry enough at times this weekend according to the latest GFS


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,641 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Could be wintry enough at times this weekend according to the latest GFS

    yep looks fairly wintry over all parts of the country from Friday and into the weekend, most of it marginal with a mixture of cold rain, sleet and wet snow. Hopefully a few places will get a dusting out of it.

    102-574UK.GIF?18-12

    108-574UK.GIF?18-12

    126-574UK.GIF?18-12

    138-780UK.GIF?18-12

    If this verifies it could be more snow falling than what we've seen over the past 2 winters combined but no guarantee there will be lying snow away from high ground.

    The GFS para is a bit more generous with snow cover across the country but not much more than a dusting to illustrate that any potential lying snow will melt away during daylight hours.

    162-780PUK.GIF?18-12


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    The models are looking very good for low level snow in Ulster from Friday, possibly Thursday.

    Freezing levels <500 metres from Friday early hours.


    Ie1d7lj.png
    i1150uN.png

    Dew Points are negative on Friday also.

    kuLaOi4.png
    vwjRjKq.png

    Snow showers hugging the north and north west coasts.

    KeMpuEA.png
    AGc9mPJ.png

    Similar, if not heavier snow showers on Saturday.

    5E5rsz1.png
    So looking good for some low level snow in Ulster (Northern and Western) on Friday and Saturday, this time it is not looking marginal.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,735 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Possibly better chances of some snow in the coming days more so from showers straying in off the coasts but could have a few more organised bands from troughs as it becomes increasingly colder, ECM showing Sat evening into Sun as good potential from what looks like an occluded front or trough activity or both., currently showing the Northern half of the country but that is only a rough guide at present would think, good cold 850 hPa's showing up especially over the weekend. Watching out for Ninja snow could be a bit of crack.

    Cold frosty nights in store for many in off the coasts.

    rUDsIQM.gif

    norfnvd.gif




    anim_ust2.gif


    gx4Otbs.gif


    j5mqMci.png

    z508mhS.png

    UL6OwpR.png

    YqAQNGD.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,735 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Turning milder and wetter as the week goes on. Early Thurs looks like getting windy in the SW and blustery wet weather spreading up over the country .

    brQQbpJ.gif

    anim_xcd4.gif

    hWyAppA.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 427 ✭✭Donegal Ken


    Possibly some snow for higher parts of Ulster tonight and for a time Tuesday morning with the freezing level around 500 to 600 metres for a time in places. Most places will be a mix of sleet, wet snow and rain.


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    Is that a snow event I see for Friday in Ulster? Please! We deserve it! (Well...not south Ulster)

    PwvHuSn.png
    4rzBo31.png
    UxNQeue.png
    RyV8Wp0.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 427 ✭✭Donegal Ken


    Status Yellow - Snow/Ice warning for Cavan, Monaghan, Donegal and Leitrim
    Met Éireann Weather Warning


    Falls of sleet and snow. Icy and hazardous conditions.

    Valid: 00:01 Tuesday 26/01/2021 to 09:00 Tuesday 26/01/2021

    Issued: 18:00 Monday 25/01/2021


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,735 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Possibly some snow for higher parts of Ulster tonight and for a time Tuesday morning with the freezing level around 500 to 600 metres for a time in places. Most places will be a mix of sleet, wet snow and rain.

    Looks very wintry in Northern counties all right, some places especially high ground could get a good dump of snow.


    diyLHwT.gif


    XjgNkRk.png

    anim_akf3.gif


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,735 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Wet week in store. Not as windy on Thurs as previous runs, some models showing possibly getting windy in the SW or W early Fri morning, in general nothing too strong at the moment, maybe a bit strong on coasts for a time.

    After a couple of milder days getting colder again during the weekend more so in the Northern half of the country. Models showing a deep area of LP moving into the cold air around Sunday as other posters have pointed out, showing this for a few runs now. ECM showing a big dump of snow in Northern counties, all the main models showing wintry precipitation but far too early to know if it will happen. Showing it to be windy on Sunday and stronger winds again on Monday but that is straying past +120 hrs but all connected to the area of LP. Looks like heavy precipitation over the weekend.

    anim_uah8.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,507 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    It's just a pity that low can't stall and slowly head south east as it crosses over us.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,735 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    It's just a pity that low can't stall and slowly head south east as it crosses over us.



    Would have a tendency to drift further North I suppose but you would never know :D


    K6gqVYE.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,974 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    the ICON brings more of the west in play this time, with the onshore breeze being more problematic for the east, penetrating further inland than what was being shown earlier. the rain for the rest looks heavy, particularly in the south. we don't exactly need more rain!

    iconeu_uk1-1-111-0.png?26-22


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,735 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Lp's close by and their associated fronts making inroads across the country over the weekend . Models differ quiet a bit at the moment, even more so than yesterday, ECM still showing fronts coming up against cold air and wintry precipitation along with heavier rainfalls possible. Marginal as ever and would not like to call it. ECM showing the N half of the country getting the most wintry weather atm but would really have to see how this evolves over the next couple of days.

    Windy at times over the weekend but not as strong as earlier runs.

    V7Zhmf5.gif

    Avql0BZ.gif


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,641 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    there is a slight chance that Saturdays rain event could turn to sleet or wet snow on the back edge as it clear's south-eastwards over Leinster, however the tracking of this is not locked in yet and the precipitation may be pushed further south, leaving many areas rather dry.

    Arpege currently has this only extending into the southern third of the country. Majority of the models has cold rain across the country with snow confined to high ground. A Chance of sleet/snow in Donegal and Monaghan perhaps.


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    The 18Z ICON has the cold air hanging on to Monday at least.


This discussion has been closed.
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