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Charts ( Up to T120 ) Winter 2020 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

  • 01-12-2020 9:46pm
    #1
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,180 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    Mod Note

    This thread is for posting / discussing /analyzing charts up to T120 ( in the more reliable time frame) for Winter 2020/2021.

    If your post does not specifically relate to the charts then it doesn't belong here off topic posts will be moved- please use the Seasonal Discussion thread for general chat.

    Thanks



    This week is set to be fairly chilly with low pressure diving from Iceland down across Ireland and the UK introducing a faily chilly second half of this week and weekend.

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    Wintry showers will affect parts of the west on Thursday:

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    Saturday will be a wetter day with mostly cold rain and some sleet in places, perhaps snow on high peaks.

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    It will be chilly over the next week with temperatures generally between 4C and 8C.


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 3,843 ✭✭✭ fvp4


    Roll on spring.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    ECM backing off getting milder from midweek as earlier runs were showing, mildest in the S, GFS still showing it to get a bit milder Thurs but turning cool again the weekend.


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    Lots of frosty cold nights coming up

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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,384 ✭✭✭ JanuarySnowstor


    Quiet in here considering there's a possibility of a significant storm Tuesday night. All models showing something quite nasty!


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,384 ✭✭✭ JanuarySnowstor


    It's over this weekend that we get the first trend as to what happens over Christmas.
    It's been a good start this evening!


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Quiet in here considering there's a possibility of a significant storm Tuesday night. All models showing something quite nasty!

    Thinking the ECM currently windy on the coasts, on the latest runs showing it very windy for a time in the SE and E, windy in the W. UKMO showing it very windy in the S and SE. GFS nothing much showing nor ICON at this stage but early days yet with plenty of time for change one way or the other.

    More like gales / strong gales for some coastal counties for now.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Models are more similar now regards the LP, possible Storm, for later Tues into Weds. Still a difference in track and intensity. ARPEGE and ICON keeping the center tracking up just off the W coast . ARPEGE by far is the strongest run atm , in Orange territory but too big a difference with the ECM for now which is showing the track further E with the center more inland and not as strong winds for the S, SE and E ( GFS similar ), gusting up around 100 to 110 along the coasts and up to 90 in coastal counties and up to 80 Km/h elsewhere but on this run showing the least wind in the W.

    To note ARPEGE much deeper , would imagine it will come more in line with the ECM.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    A lot of rainfall between now and Weds morning with high spring tides and strong onshore winds, might need to watch the water levels.

    Tide table for Cork city.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    ARPEGE and ICON showing stronger winds for Tues night into Weds than the ECM and GFS .

    ECM and GFS show less severe winds and would have to side with the ECM for now, bit far out for to be reliable for the ARPEGE yet.

    The models should be more aligned this evening.



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58




  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    A fairly big adjustment more W by the ECM whereas the ARPEGE is now tracking more E. UKMO ( after going walkabout ) now tracking about midway between the ARPEGE and the ECM and looks about the strongest but it hasn't been very consistent. ICON somewhere between the ECM and ARPEGE. GFS weakest of the lot .

    So would be siding with the European models, UKMO might be overdoing it a bit.

    At the moment I reckon ( just my opinion ) looking at Yellow warnings for many counties for wind gusting to 110 km/h but will need to see the next few runs to pinpoint the strongest areas, atm the S, SE and E getting the strongest winds.

    This may transfer strong winds well into Munster and Leinster depending on track, high end yellow perhaps.

    Very heavy rain going through quickly in the SW may warrant a warning as there will be big accumulations there over the next few days, rivers will be very high and might not hold the rain to fall late Tues into early Weds.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,384 ✭✭✭ JanuarySnowstor


    Your missing one point there Meteorite
    An exceptional high tide for the South on Wed
    Tidal flooding in Cork Could Be Very bad


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Your missing one point there Meteorite
    An exceptional high tide for the South on Wed
    Tidal flooding in Cork Could Be Very bad

    Did kinda mention it in post 8 & 10: :)

    ECM not making much of this LP on the last couple of runs, isobars not particularly tight and doesn't drop as low as earlier runs and fills fairly quickly.

    Will see if the Hi Res models move in either direction. I would think the HI Res are showing the possibility of a bit more than gusts of 100 km/h on the S and SE coasts for the moment, very strong onshore winds in the S and SE. Strongest winds will have cleared Munster early Weds morning.

    Fairly blustery inland in the yellow warning counties.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,384 ✭✭✭ JanuarySnowstor


    This system tomorrow night has the potential to cause a lot of damage through both tidal flooding and wind across the South. It's potent and isn't just your regular system. If I was a shop owner in flood prone areas of Cork I would spend tomorrow getting all stock away from ground floors!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,393 ✭✭✭ Oscar Bravo


    Status Orange - Wind warning for Cork

    Met Éireann Weather Warning

    Due to high seas and strong onshore winds, there is the risk of coastal flooding tonight (Tuesday night) and on Wednesday. Gale force southeast winds, veering southwest gusting 90 to 110km/h generally, higher in exposed areas.

    Valid: 21:00 Tuesday 15/12/2020 to 09:00 Wednesday 16/12/2020


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,180 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    Christmas week is almost here so how is the weather looking for the next week?

    Starting off fairly mild tomorrow especially in the south with temperatures of 12 or 13C, however colder air from the north will push southwards through the day. Temperatures generally 4 to 7C across the north, west, midlands and northern half of Leinster. These colder temperatures will be across the south by tomorrow evening. A band of rain will cross the country during the day too introducing colder air behind it with heaviest rain across the south.

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    Tuesday will be another cold day away from the south coast with temperatures genearlly 3 to 7C, coldest inland, more like 7 or 8C across the very south coast. Rain across the south and west, looks mostly patchy and light to begin with. This rain will push up across the country during the evening and may turn wintry on the peaks. Dry across the east and north for much of the day with rain eventually arriving in the evening.

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    After a wet night on Tuesday, Wednesday will see rain clearing to leave a cool day, perhaps a notch milder than Tuesday with temperatures between 4 and 8C, mildest around coastal regions. A few light rain showers are possible across the west and north.

    Christmas Eve (Thursday) is looking mostly dry and cool with a chance of some rain showers across the west and north. Temperatures generally 4 to 9C.

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    The big day itself Christmas Day will see milder air move into the west, remaining fairly chilly across the eastern half of the country. A dry day with high pressure moving in from the west. Temperatures 4 to 9C, mildest along the west and coldest in the east.

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    Saturday 26th of December will be a milder day generally with temperatures ranging 7 to 11C, mildest across the west and south. Another mostly dry day but a few showers are possible across northern and western coasts.

    and finally Sunday 27th of December will see another band of rain push south-eastwards across the country. This band of rain will reintroduce colder air with rain perhaps turning wintry in places, particularly over high ground in the west, midlands and north. Rain may turn to sleet or wet snow at times in some lower levels too, particularly well inland. This is a week away so the exact positioning of this cold front and it's precipitation is not nailed in yet. Temperatures generally between 1 and 8C, coldest across the east, midlands and north.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Saturday is now looking increasingly wet and windy especially down along Atlantic coasts and quite blustery overland ( get your walk in Christmas day :) ).

    Just on the cusp of bringing in much colder air mass with wintry precipitation later that night into Sunday but that is still just over +120 hrs.



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Strong winds are going to be a feature over the weekend into next week along Atlantic coasts, first round on Saturday, blustery across the country to being quite windy in places, looks strong along Atlantic coastal counties more so in coastal areas, Kerry, Clare and W Cork standing out at the moment as having very strong winds.

    Driving rain also with spot flooding an issue perhaps.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Colder air mass being introduced later Saturday and introducing wintry precipitation, hail showers could be plentiful and thinking we might have some thunderstorms as well along coastal counties. Looks like High ground snow and maybe hills in Northern counties, at the moment doesn't look cold enough to me for snow on lower levels out to Monday.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    No. Looks mostly rain with just wintry showers. Very cold though with temps most days only 5 or 6c. Theres no cold enough pool but colder than normal for next 2 weeks


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,818 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    At the moment if I had to eye a day it would be Sunday. An occlusion wrapped around the center of the lp slipping south could bring a more organised period of snow especially overnight.

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    This is broadly backed by the other models as well. Something to watch.

    In terms of snow for the coming 10 days the further away you are from windward coasts your chances improve dramatically.

    ...but because the winds will be increasingly cyclonic variable it means that it will be random enough as to when a windward coast is a windward coast. The north and northwest early on but then shifting to east coasts.

    In a nutshell if you are on a coast and the wind is off shore you're grand.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭ squarecircles


    My,My, what a load of disappointing pig muck this turn out to be, intially Christmas was looking very cold, then it was new years eve, then into early January and now it's a sloppy wet mess.

    A fart of a storm on Stevens day And a pasting likely across the Irish sea.
    Can 2020 get any more miserable.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,894 ✭✭✭ BLIZZARD7


    My,My, what a load of disappointing pig muck this turn out to be, intially Christmas was looking very cold, then it was new years eve, then into early January and now it's a sloppy wet mess.

    A fart of a storm on Stevens day And a pasting likely across the Irish sea.
    Can 2020 get any more miserable.

    Hard to be this despondent when we have one of the best hemispheric patterns we have ever seen going into a New year... the UK in general isn't really in a better position than us for the next few days, unless you are talking about Scotland.

    Christmas itself was never looking snowy and cold, around the 28th still has potential but I think you are missing the bigger picture here which is that we are watching the utter destruction of the Polar vortex unfold. This is all trop led and before we see any potential impact from the very promising Stratospheric forecasts...

    Okay so we don't have deep cold in the reliable time frame but what we do have is numerous marginal snow set ups in the near to mid term, luckily we have the time of year on our side for once. (Late December/Early January is ideal) Some will likely get surprise snow at times in this setup.

    The longer term outlook is almost as good as it gets at this point in winter, we have a very southerly tracking jet, Likely a true Greenland high (haven't had one of them since 2010), the polar vortex in complete disarray and the promise of more serious pressure being delivered via the stratosphere. The gun is loaded...


    Apologies mods this is off topic ^

    - To add relevance, somehere might get some of the mentioned surprise snow on Sunday night as illustrated in posts above ^


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 624 Humberto Salazar


    My,My, what a load of disappointing pig muck this turn out to be, intially Christmas was looking very cold, then it was new years eve, then into early January and now it's a sloppy wet mess.

    A fart of a storm on Stevens day And a pasting likely across the Irish sea.
    Can 2020 get any more miserable.

    And they criticize me for being negative 😉

    Look, it's going to be seasonally cool to cold, and with different dynamics daily, surprises could happen. Maybe the upcoming (hopefully) strat warming will send very cold weather our way in January. No guarantee but at least it's a shot. Different to last year.


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,818 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    Sunday still looking interesting

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    While we may see snowfall - it may not amount to much settling at lower levels but we'll see in the next day or two..


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,818 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    ECM shows a couple of cms having settled inland over night Sunday/Monday. Slight delay in arrival of snow in the east but same result as above.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    The 528dam line well South by midday Sunday. Sunday evening /Night into Monday morning looks like a good chance of snow all right wherever it falls. Looking much colder too on the latest ECM 12Z going below freezing, might be able to make snowmen around midnight :D Temperatures set to rise quickly into Monday from the W but might stay low in the E getting up to about 5C

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Unusual to see the Met office showing Amber Wind Warnings already for the S of the UK and loads of rainfall warnings, they are not taking this lightly. Charts not showing it being that strong there yet, they must be expecting the models to increase the winds perhaps??

    Nice snowy looking charts later Sunday :)


    https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1342060267493089280?s=20

    https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1342199723004932105?s=20


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,180 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    Happy Christmas everyone! I hope everyone has a great, happy and safe day.

    How are the next few days between now and New Years Day looking?

    This forecast may change slightly over the next few days as precipitation becomes increasingly difficult to forecast accurately given that we are entering a cold spell that isn't bitterly cold and contains mild sectors.

    Wintry precipitation could be fairly widespread particularly on Monday and Tuesday with snowfall more likely for areas inland away from coasts and on high ground. Cold rain and sleet is more likely in western areas exposed to the Atlantic and perhaps right on the east coast too. It turns drier as we mix week next week as we head towards new years day.

    Tomorrow (St Stephens Day) will be a mildish day with rain crossing the country from the north west. Temperatures generally between 6 and 10C, mildest across the west and south.

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    Tomorrow night is likely to be very wet indeed with plenty of heavy rain across the country. Colder air will begin to track down across the country and the rain may turn to sleet on high ground in places.

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    Sunday will be a much colder day with wintry showers of rain, hail, sleet and wet snow in many places, particularly the west and north. Showers more scattered across eastern and southern areas where some places could remain dry. Temperatures Sunday generally between 1 and 6C, mildest across the west.

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    Sunday night the rain may turn increasingly to sleet and wet snow across many eastern, northern and some midland areas. Milder air across the west will keep this as cold rain or sleet in most places west of the Shannon. high ground locations like the Wicklow Mountains could see quite a fall of snow with lower locations seeing sleet or wet snow so lying snow will be more difficult to judge in lowland areas, but many areas seeing some flakes at least.

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    Monday 28th of December is looking very cold, particularly across the east and north where temperatures may not get much above freezing all day. A band of rain tries to introduce milder air across the west will turn readily to sleet and snow as it pushed eastwards. Snow most likely from Donegal to Waterford and eastwards and cold rain/sleet further west. Temperatures in western half of country between 4 and 7C, not much more than 0 to 2C across the east and north.

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    81-580UK.GIF?25-6

    Tuesday will be a mostly dry day with wintry showers along western coasts. Patchy rain/sleet/snow will clear eastern areas early in the day.

    Tuesday will be another cold day particularly in the east with temperatures ranging 2 to 5C there and up to 7 or 8C along the west.

    102-580UK.GIF?25-6

    Wednesday will be similar to Tuesday, mostly dry with a few showers along western and northern coasts. Temperatures between 2 and 8C on Wednesday, coldest across the east, north and midlands. Very frosty Wednesday night with temperatures as low as -4C, slightly milder towards the west with a more patchy frost there.

    Thursday will be another raw day with a band of rain and wintry precipitation moving north-west to south-east across the country. This may fall as rain across many parts but there is a chance this could turn to sleet and snow across the north and east of the country. Temperatures in the East and Ulster may not get much above freezing, around 4 or 5C along the west. Another very cold night on Thursday for most parts with milder air trying to get into the far west.

    Friday (new years day) will be a mostly dry and cold day. Temperatures generally 2 to 5C but 6 to 8C along western coastal fringes.

    Overall a fairly chilly week to come, particularly in eastern and northern areas with wintry precipitation at times, snow may be more of a problem on high ground with fairly significant falls on the higher peaks. Snow cannot be ruled out on lower ground either but here it may be a scene of wet snow falling onto wet ground, however some locations are bound to see some minor accumulations at times.

    The west will be generally cold too but it appears the western coastal areas will be milder throughout the week with the onshore Atlantic winds keeping those areas less cold.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Will be interesting watching out for wintry reports from later Sat into Sun and especially Sunday night into Monday morning for snowfall. Pressure gets very low, 850 hPa temps maybe not conducive for dry snow but should be very wintry with a lot of sleet and wet snow and thunderstorms around the coasts and hail showers moving inland possible. At least Monday morning will see plenty of white capped mountains and perhaps higher hills in places for a time more towards the NE, E.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 17,665 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    From a West Clare perspective, all I see is pure disappointment.


This discussion has been closed.
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