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Charts ( Up to T120 ) Winter 2020 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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Comments

  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    Just be aware that the 850hPa level is now 300 metres higher.

    And yes I am surprise at the cold. I did not realise we would be under at least -6c hPa for the next couple of days.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,641 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    after midday tomorrow we do get colder uppers for the rest of the week, generally -6 to -8. The -10 just about tips into County Donegal on Thursday night into Friday morning.

    GFSOPUK18_102_2.png

    -9 across the whole country early on Friday. Sadly it looks mostly dry through most of this period.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,974 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    850hPa temps around now are about -5,-6 but are due to drop to -8 for a time over the next few days, if we could squeeze a -9 maybe some coastal parts of Dublin could catch some snow...

    GFS charts

    around now


    tomorrow night

    my part of Dublin bottoms out at -8.5c on that GFS run at Tuesday noon, with a dew point of -0.4c. of course it looks dry though! Friday brings -9.6c uppers and a dew point in the -3c/-4c region but also some snow for the north, west and east.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    If that front on Thursday can fall of snow and the high pressure orientates to keep us on cold side, we could have some very cold nights at the end of the week if snow on the ground.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    So much for the -10c uppers. They have no been replaced by a warm core. Typical


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,974 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    So much for the -10c uppers. They have no been replaced by a warm core. Typical

    the GFS still has countrywide sub -9c uppers and the chance of snow showers for some on Friday, hopefully it's correct.

    06_102_ukthickness850.png

    06_102_preciptype.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,735 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Getting increasingly cold as we move through the week with sharp to severe frosts right up to Sat morning. Models all showing wintry precipitation later Weds into Thurs with a slow moving weakening front moving down from the NW / N. Freezing looks set to move in quickly Weds evening and 850 hPa temps look decent for sleet and snow, maybe freezing rain also, what falls would more than likely be falling onto freezing ground and would no doubt lead to very tricky driving / walking conditions on Thurs morning. To me it looks like the top third of the country with the most snow, especially higher ground but looks like lower elevations will see snow also but in general it looks light. All depends how much precipitation the front holds as it moves down the country, currently looks like sleet or a dusting of snow is possible down along the country, amounts atm look light, would think a fair chance of light snow flurries in places.

    Some very cold air showing up on the models Fri and Sat especially down along the E and SE and models showing that snow showers could occur close to or moving in over the coastline , the SE looks like it could get snow showers Fri night /Sat morning. Wicklow Mts should have a good coating by Sat morning.

    0FSD9a0.gif

    1nZ6uAu.gif

    xV6scD7.gif


    yTFf3yC.gif


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    Artane2002 wrote: »
    the GFS still has countrywide sub -9c uppers and the chance of snow showers for some on Friday, hopefully it's correct.

    06_102_ukthickness850.png

    06_102_preciptype.png

    That looks fabulous for me! Unfortunately it’s high pressure.


  • Registered Users Posts: 688 ✭✭✭bazlers


    Getting increasingly cold as we move through the week with sharp to severe frosts right up to Sat morning. Models all showing wintry precipitation later Weds into Thurs with a slow moving weakening front moving down from the NW / N. Freezing looks set to move in quickly Weds evening and 850 hPa temps look decent for sleet and snow, maybe freezing rain also, what falls would more than likely be falling onto freezing ground and would no doubt lead to very tricky driving / walking conditions on Thurs morning. To me it looks like the top third of the country with the most snow, especially higher ground but looks like lower elevations will see snow also but in general it looks light. All depends how much precipitation the front holds as it moves down the country, currently looks like sleet or a dusting of snow is possible down along the country, amounts atm look light, would think a fair chance of light snow flurries in places.

    Some very cold air showing up on the models Fri and Sat especially down along the E and SE and models showing that snow showers could occur close to or moving in over the coastline , the SE looks like it could get snow showers Fri night /Sat morning. Wicklow Mts should have a good coating by Sat morning.

    0FSD9a0.gif

    1nZ6uAu.gif

    xV6scD7.gif


    yTFf3yC.gif

    Excellent Meteorite as always. Plenty calling this mini cold spell over before it has begun.
    Just the prelude before the main event later in the month I hope. Time to look at the oil tank levels...


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,127 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    The ECM run tonight has more dark blues over us in its first 5 days than we often have in a winter!


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    The ECM run tonight has more dark blues over us in its first 5 days than we often have in a winter!

    Not bad at all.
    gfs-1-84.png?18
    ECM0-96.GIF?04-0


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,507 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    I prefer the colour Purple, but dark blue isn't a bad compromise. Hopefully there will be snow a bit more widely about on Thursday and Friday!


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,641 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    a chance of some transitional frontal snow on Thursday from the leading edge of that band of precipitation. There will be a mild sector involved with it tho, dew points rise just above 0 as the band crosses the country and falls again after it clears. Some places could see some flakes, but the chances are that it will turn to rain with the exception of high ground as the temperatures, uppers and dew points rise briefly.

    63-574UK.GIF?04-18

    60-101UK.GIF?04-18

    66-580UK.GIF?04-18

    63-7UK.GIF?04-18


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,974 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    that chart shows a chance of freezing rain for some, could be interesting to watch.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    Gonzo wrote: »
    a chance of some transitional frontal snow on Thursday from the leading edge of that band of precipitation. There will be a mild sector involved with it tho, dew points rise just above 0 as the band crosses the country and falls again after it clears. Some places could see some flakes, but the chances are that it will turn to rain with the exception of high ground as the temperatures, uppers and dew points rise briefly.

    63-574UK.GIF?04-18

    60-101UK.GIF?04-18

    66-580UK.GIF?04-18

    63-7UK.GIF?04-18

    It doesn’t warm more than -4c for a lot of places. So that could sustain snow.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Some great ECM soundings within that frontal band overnight Wednesday/Thursday.

    538352.png

    The first sounding is for that dark blue area north of Mullingar. Absolute bliss, with a deep saturated layer up to the optimum -10 C zone and close to, but all just below, zero. Plenty of precipitations with that and it would be all snow.

    The second sounding is the from the red freezing rain area near Galway. We can see that there is a fairly deep saturated warm (above zero) layer just above a sub-zero surface layer. The warm layer allows snow to melt to just enough for it to freeze again on contact with the frozen surface.

    Of course, this is still over 48 hours away, so minor tweeks are possible, but it's a while since I've seen the ECM showing such nice soundings.

    538353.png

    538354.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,945 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    Some great ECM soundings within that frontal band overnight Wednesday/Thursday.

    538352.png

    The first sounding is for that dark blue area north of Mullingar. Absolute bliss, with a deep saturated layer up to the optimum -10 C zone and close to, but all just below, zero. Plenty of precipitations with that and it would be all snow.

    The second sounding is the from the red freezing rain area near Galway. We can see that there is a fairly deep saturated warm (above zero) layer just above a sub-zero surface layer. The warm layer allows snow to melt to just enough for it to freeze again on contact with the frozen surface.

    Of course, this is still over 48 hours away, so minor tweeks are possible, but it's a while since I've seen the ECM showing such nice soundings.

    538353.png

    538354.png

    How does it look as it heads further south GL?


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,076 ✭✭✭highdef


    Strangely, the same model only gives trace amounts of lying snow.


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,295 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    That front will be on it's last legs crossing the country as the temperature difference either side is closing. Be surprised if it wasn't pretty light and patchy for most.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,974 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    That front will be on it's last legs crossing the country as the temperature difference either side is closing. Be surprised if it wasn't pretty light and patchy for most.

    it reminds me of that front from around February 6th 2018 that fizzled out while crossing the country. that one also brought rain to the west before turning to snow further east.


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    Should hopefully bring snow for me.


  • Registered Users Posts: 995 ✭✭✭Neddyusa


    Some great ECM soundings within that frontal band overnight Wednesday/Thursday.

    538352.png

    The first sounding is for that dark blue area north of Mullingar. Absolute bliss, with a deep saturated layer up to the optimum -10 C zone and close to, but all just below, zero. Plenty of precipitations with that and it would be all snow.

    The second sounding is the from the red freezing rain area near Galway. We can see that there is a fairly deep saturated warm (above zero) layer just above a sub-zero surface layer. The warm layer allows snow to melt to just enough for it to freeze again on contact with the frozen surface.

    Of course, this is still over 48 hours away, so minor tweeks are possible, but it's a while since I've seen the ECM showing such nice soundings.

    538353.png

    538354.png

    Looks like snow for a lot of the centre and north of the country to me.
    You need a good bit of "marginal-ity" to get low level snow in Ireland. For example, very few snowfalls here have been forecast by ME.

    Too cold in a scenario like this, and the precipitation tends to disappear.
    "Its too cold to snow" the old folks would say. Well they werent stupid :pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    How does it look as it heads further south GL?

    Getting lighter and lighter as it heads further southeastwards, but certainly the northern half of the country should see some proper snow falling during the night.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,843 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    That quote brought back memories I remember many years ago in Galway when we used to get snow and I would often say to my Dad its going to snow and he would say
    "Its too cold to snow" no chance and he was always right. Quote by Neddyusa
    he knew very little about weather but he knew the signs for it if Mother Careys Chickens were seen at the beach in Salthill he would say there is a storm coming and it would it seems these birds only come into land when very bad weather is coming.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    ICON says all snow for me with no higher than -4c 850hPa.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    The 06Z ECM soundings have gone even colder for early Thursday morning's precipitation, with the total column now a degree or two colder, though precipitation rates are slightly down. Still around 11 mm total precipitable water so light fluffy snow would occur if the sounding verifies.

    e.g. north of Mullingar again.

    538395.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    This is the downgrade in precipitation intensity between the 00Z and 06Z ECM runs for 7 am Thursday.

    00Z run
    538396.png

    06Z run
    538397.png


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    This is the downgrade in precipitation intensity between the 00Z and 06Z ECM runs for 7 am Thursday.

    00Z run
    538396.png

    06Z run
    538397.png

    Could you produce a sounding for my location again please. (Just not on the immediate coast)

    Try 55.05N and -6.92W


  • Registered Users Posts: 995 ✭✭✭Neddyusa


    The 06Z ECM soundings have gone even colder for early Thursday morning's precipitation, with the total column now a degree or two colder, though precipitation rates are slightly down. Still around 11 mm total precipitable water so light fluffy snow would occur if the sounding verifies.

    e.g. north of Mullingar again.

    538395.png


    Any chance of a PL forming at this stage? :D

    Edit: Surprised to see no thread for this.
    Even though it looks to be small amounts - there's been 10 page threads running here for far less!


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    Neddyusa wrote: »
    Any chance of a PL forming at this stage? :D

    Edit: Surprised to see no thread for this.
    Even though it looks to be small amounts - there's been 10 page threads running here for far less!

    You don’t want a polar low. It just warms the air and produces a lot of wind.


This discussion has been closed.
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