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Charts ( Up to T120 ) Winter 2020 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 2,862 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Next week still looking excellent
    Yes it's marginal but heavy snow is surely a given for high ground


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,615 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Sunday/monday is looking quite wintry now particularly across eastern and northern areas with a possibility of a dusting or possibly something slightly heavier is quite a few areas.

    63-780UK.GIF?25-18

    Bitterly cold on Sunday evening with a possibility of widespread snow across Leinster and Ulster. Blizzard conditions are possible on high ground locations such as the Wicklow mountains. Temperatures below freezing east of the Shannon.

    48-580UK.GIF?25-18

    Bitterly cold on Monday too with temperatures barely above freezing

    69-580UK.GIF?25-18

    Infact next week some eastern areas may struggle to get much above 2 or 3C at any point next week with temperatures below 0C for much of the time. The Western third of the country will be milder with temperatures closer to 6 or 7C for much of the week.


  • Registered Users Posts: 788 ✭✭✭Snowbiee21


    Gonzo wrote: »
    Sunday/monday is looking quite wintry now particularly across eastern and northern areas with a possibility of a dusting or possibly something slightly heavier is quite a few areas.

    63-780UK.GIF?25-18

    Bitterly cold on Sunday evening with a possibility of widespread snow across Leinster and Ulster. Blizzard conditions are possible on high ground locations such as the Wicklow mountains. Temperatures below freezing east of the Shannon.

    48-580UK.GIF?25-18

    Bitterly cold on Monday too with temperatures barely above freezing

    69-580UK.GIF?25-18

    Infact next week some eastern areas may struggle to get much above 2 or 3C at any point next week with temperatures below 0C for much of the time. The Western third of the country will be milder with temperatures closer to 6 or 7C for much of the week.

    The most bullish I’ve heard gonzo :O


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,615 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    I think we will need more runs like this tomorrow to be more comfortable about Sunday and into Monday. Wouldn't take much of an adjustment to bring the milder air further east or even the colder conditions further west.

    But as of now it looks like rain tomorrow night turning to sleet and possibly snow later in the night. This will clear by Sunday morning and then another band of rain moving in from the north-west on Sunday evening into Sunday night, this one could turn to snow quicker and stay mainly as snow across the east and Ulster. Sunday night could be fairly snowy and if tonights chart verifies many eastern areas could wake up to a small to moderate covering on Monday morning.

    I'm not totally sold on this yet, tomorrows runs will be important.

    Looks dryer after Monday but the cold pool seems to be intensifying across Leinster into the first week of January.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Certainly nice-looking charts down the midlands and east overnight Sunday/Monday, but the sounding shows just how a degree either way could tip the balance. Really relying on cooling Sunday evening before the system arrives.

    Chart for midnight, with the Celbridge forecast sounding. Surface temp/dewpoint 0.5/0.0 °C, with a moist isothermal layer around 0 °C up to around 900 hPa.

    537200.png

    537201.png


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,615 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    this mornings run the snow for Leinster looks more marginal than it did last night, temperatures don't look as cold either, temperatures more like 0C or 1C tomorrow night instead of -2C (which was showing last night).

    The snow depth chart for tommorrow also looks mostly clear of lying snow potential. Looks like we are more back to the wintry mix of mostly sleet and wet snow with lying snow more guaranteed for high ground.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,722 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Gonzo wrote: »
    this mornings run the snow for Leinster looks more marginal than it did last night, temperatures don't look as cold either, temperatures more like 0C or 1C tomorrow night instead of -2C (which was showing last night).

    The snow depth chart for tomorrow also looks mostly clear of lying snow potential. Looks like we are more back to the wintry mix of mostly sleet and wet snow with lying snow more guaranteed for high ground.

    That's the GFS you are quoting I take it Gonzo, on the other hand the ECM is cold enough for snow potential but the track has been shifting about the last few runs. Good chance of snowfall I reckon at this stage, how wet and long it lasts is another thing, does look like the Eastern half and more so Ulster, Leinster with the best chance of some lying snow.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,722 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    GFS back on it, WRF Hi Res looking wintry and snow also, low Dp's

    anim_tnx3.gif

    anim_nom3.gif

    anim_sxx3.gif


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,615 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    latest gfs still on for some minor snow accumulations across the north-eastern half of Leinster. Parts of Northern Ireland and high ground locations such as the Wicklow mountains could get a fairly moderate covering if precipitation lasts for a few hours.

    42-780UK.GIF?26-12

    Could be quite alot of precipitation around between now and Monday morning, mostly rain in the west and south but more wintry in the north and east.

    57-777UK.GIF?26-12

    Once we get to Tuesday many places will see drier weather till the 3th or 4th of January.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,722 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Fair Windchill for the coming days.

    ICON not showing much accumulations apart from the SE, there's a new one ! :D

    anim_fnz4.gif

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    anim_fws3.gif


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  • Registered Users Posts: 33,716 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    In the above model it shows the snow for the Wicklow mountains, Blackstairs Mountains, the Slieve Blooms and the Castlecomer Plateau which are probably very realistic.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,722 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Set to get very windy again overnight into Monday along Atlantic with Yellow wind warning in place, blustery overland

    anim_fga4.gif


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,722 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Weds looks interesting, models differ, most notably with track but worth keeping an eye on, some good cold 850 hPa temperatures available.


    4rDrsFJ.gif

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    X7BEk8o.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,123 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    Watching that precip turn back to rain just as it hits Dublin stings. Hopefully more easterly days ahead for the capital before January's done.


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,268 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    There will be light to moderate snow showers in the east next week on current projections, sometimes more mixed near coasts though.

    gfs-0-114.png?12

    gfs-1-114.png?12


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,961 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    UKMO looks similar

    UW120-21.GIF?31-17

    621A876C-F3CD-4510-AEE1-D58ED9BFA1D5.gif.c780b2a0b70a6dc63882712a70605449.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,124 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    With all the talk of FI and SSW events, easy to take the eye of the shorter term. What are folks up to date thoughts on snow prospects over the next 5 days?


  • Registered Users Posts: 788 ✭✭✭Snowbiee21


    With all the talk of FI and SSW events, easy to take the eye of the shorter term. What are folks up to date thoughts on snow prospects over the next 5 days?

    Slim, looking like marginality throughout. Rain sleet and wet snow.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,124 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    I'll answer my own post (if that's not too wierd) with the below chart for (admittedly) 6 days time....

    21010812_0212.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,124 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Kids mightnt be going back to school on the 11th for a totally different reason than the press are discussing...

    21011015_0218.gif

    Before that there are snow chances as soon as Thursday...


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,722 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Yes looks like a weak front crossing down over the country around late Weds / Thurs followed by troughs . Will see if the area of LP to the E of the UK on Thurs lends a hand to guide / send in bands of precipitation from the NE later Thurs into Fri as the ECM suggests atm, this could be wintry for the N, NE and E if it happens like this but that is a bit far away yet.

    Y6kkmqP.gif

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    FlO7xyR.gif

    FEWVho6.gif

    anim_hme4.gif

    ECU1-144_kzs8.GIF


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,021 ✭✭✭irishrover99


    Can you spread COVID by throwing a snowball?. Will social distancing be required during snowball fights?.
    I will await government advice before proceeding to have fun 🀩.
    Where art thou Tony...


  • Registered Users Posts: 384 ✭✭torres9kop


    Can you spread COVID by throwing a snowball?. Will social distancing be required during snowball fights?.
    I will await government advice before proceeding to have fun 🀩.
    Where art thou Tony...

    If you wear warm gloves you will be grand..


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,722 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ICON painting a picture of a cold breezy / blustery wintry spell from later Weds through to Friday. Showing some very cold air over us and deep cold close by, some very cold wind chill readings. ECM currently not showing it too snowy , ARPEGE looks a bit wintry but little precipitation . UKMO and GFS a bit wintry but not a lot of wintry precipitation . Early days in the world of snow, will see what the ECM shows later.

    anim_ktd6.gif

    anim_fxy5.gif

    anim_hoi5.gif

    anim_ado1.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    15Z ICON Flash shows continuous snow over Wicklow mountains overnight, with even the odd flurry over other parts of the east come morning time.

    538153.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,722 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    I reckon in general the models showing a fairly tame weakening cold front break up as it passes down the country Weds night into Thurs. Wintry but light stuff, probably mainly sleet and some light snow on higher ground. ICON still showing the most snow from this. Bit away yet for any accuracy, ECM showing more in the way of wintry precipitation on the 12Z than previous runs. Has the the cold front move into cold air, 850 hPa of about -5 to -6C and similar type temperatures following.


    WXYnqsD.gif

    oJKsQiW.gif

    poz5ZUf.gif


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    I reckon in general the models showing a fairly tame weakening cold front break up as it passes down the country Weds night into Thurs. Wintry but light stuff, probably mainly sleet and some light snow on higher ground. ICON still showing the most snow from this. Bit away yet for any accuracy, ECM showing more in the way of wintry precipitation on the 12Z than previous runs. Has the the cold front move into cold air, 850 hPa of about -5 to -6C and similar type temperatures following.


    WXYnqsD.gif

    oJKsQiW.gif

    poz5ZUf.gif

    Looks fairly heavy for me.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    This could potentially be all snow (if it’s not windy). The front seems to cool as it heads south.

    The freezing level appears to drop ahead of the front too.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    Showing as snow heading SE.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,776 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    850hPa temps around now are about -5,-6 but are due to drop to -8 for a time over the next few days, if we could squeeze a -9 maybe some coastal parts of Dublin could catch some snow...

    GFS charts

    around now

    3-7UK.GIF?03-18

    tomorrow night

    30-7UK.GIF?03-18


This discussion has been closed.
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