Risk Of Heavy Snow Showers As It Turns Extremely Cold Sunday Night/Monday

Redsunset · 06-03-2013 5:04pm

I have no words for the 12z GFS so far.

Larbre34 · 06-03-2013 5:09pm

Redsunset wrote: »

I have no words for the 12z GFS so far.

I'll give you three. Cor. Blimey. Guv'nor.

Daniel2590 · 06-03-2013 5:12pm

-12 uppers have moved about 200 miles east... hope it doesn't go this way again.

TheMilkyPirate · 06-03-2013 5:13pm

Redsunset wrote: »

I have no words for the 12z GFS so far.

Ominous will do.

Redsunset · 06-03-2013 5:14pm

Daniel2590 wrote: »

-12 uppers have moved about 200 miles east... hope it doesn't go this way again.

Relax tis hardly a downgrade given the set up. Serious snow cover from as is charts.

DOCARCH · 06-03-2013 5:14pm

Redsunset wrote: »

I have no words for the 12z GFS so far.

Good?...Bad?...I'm too frightened to look!

Wicklow Weather · 06-03-2013 5:17pm

The GFS 12z is like going to heaven for cold lovers even better than the 06z, how is that possible!!!!

Daniel2590 · 06-03-2013 5:19pm

Redsunset wrote: »

Relax tis hardly a downgrade given the set up. Serious snow cover from as is charts.

Only problem is if the -10's are next to move 200 miles east... then the -8's... Not like that hasn't happened before :P

Redsunset · 06-03-2013 5:21pm

Right that'll do pig, that'll do.

Roll on the crucial Ecm

power101 · 06-03-2013 5:22pm

Wicklow Weather wrote: »

The GFS 12z is like going to heaven for cold lovers even better than the 06z, how is that possible!!!!

I can only see a big downgrade between the 12z and the 06z? -14 uppers are no longer widespread over the country. I would say a pull back of the cold of between 300 - 400 miles east. If this happens again over another run the cold would be pretty much gone.

Wicklow Weather · 06-03-2013 5:24pm

I only see a more realistic output now that the GFS has settled down to more likely upper temps and not the -14's and -12's that were astonishing and unrealistic. Wait and see how the ECM and UKMO pan out.

patneve2 · 06-03-2013 5:25pm

The GFS 12z is still amazingly good for cold and snow lovers (only a slight downgrade). However do not get excited as small enough changes could cause the cold to go further south. ECM 12z, as well as model runs up until Friday evening will be crucial

Redsunset · 06-03-2013 5:28pm

Folks dilution of cold is expected and changes will happen from run to run. Don't be taking to heart.

Enjoy the evolution.

jon burrows · 06-03-2013 5:44pm

Redsunset wrote: »

Folks dilution of cold is expected and changes will happen from run to run. Don't be taking to heart.

Enjoy the evolution.

You spelled Roller coaster wrong there

Solair · 06-03-2013 6:05pm

In Cork City this will probably mean cold drizzle as per usual

snaps · 06-03-2013 6:13pm

Have to admit the charts look very tasty. But its a shame this wasn't a month ago. Need warmth now, garden is coming to life, I've spent a fortune on heating this winter. I'm sure there will be the usual t96 downgrades, then we see on sky news that the UK are getting plastered!

gabeeg · 06-03-2013 6:42pm

Can anyone tell me if there's any way of determining surface temps from 850s?

downwiththatsor · 06-03-2013 7:00pm

I think its t850 +5 degrees c = surface temp (t850 is temp at 5,000 feet (1,500 m) above sea level)

whitebriar · 06-03-2013 7:02pm

gabeeg wrote: »

Can anyone tell me if there's any way of determining surface temps from 850s?

Several factors at play.
850 air is at 5000ft asl so temp falls roughly 2c for every 1000ft meaning -10 air at that height is 0c at sea level.
However the sun will heat it nearer the surface at this time of the year(it has 11hrs of opportunity almost) and also urban heat islands,the sea as it passes over,the temp of the air in the drop zone and at ground level at the flows source and at all points in between.
Mathematicians have tools to make a stab at it.But as we await the Ecm,let's say it will be cold enough for snow period(!) as things stand.
-12 or -14 850 air over us in an unstable atmosphere even in march would be mayhem and certainly ice days for most.

gabeeg · 06-03-2013 7:09pm

Interesting. Thanks.

patneve2 · 06-03-2013 7:25pm

I already like the similarities between the ECM and GFS 12z at 96 hours

Redsunset · 06-03-2013 7:31pm

12z ECM and 12z GFS are like identical twins.

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dacogawa · 06-03-2013 7:31pm

ECM falling into line, not getting my hopes up till Thu night/Fri morning

ECM0-120.GIF?06-0

whitebriar · 06-03-2013 7:31pm

gabeeg wrote: »

Interesting. Thanks.

No problem.
Loads of other factors too,many of which favour snow landing on our doorstep Monday by the looks of the ecm 12 z now aswell.

mickger844posts · 06-03-2013 7:32pm

ECM 12z has -10 uppers over most of the country by Monday. Amazing charts for this time of year or any time of year in fact.

angelclar · 06-03-2013 7:39pm

snow mid march . not in belmullet we get wind & mist as pernormal

ZX7R · 06-03-2013 7:40pm

If the charts look this good come Friday i will get excited,have seen good charts so many time this winter only for the cold to fade away near the time, there could be quite a bit of snow around if those charts came to pass all the same

Redsunset · 06-03-2013 7:40pm

The Irish sea AKA The Snow Machine should be busy cooking up a storm if this comes off.

JanuarySnowstor · 06-03-2013 7:42pm

ECM backs the UKMO evolution imo and eventhough Monday sees some awesome uppers it's a 48 hour event at most as no proper Greenland high develops aka Winter 12/13!!
It looks dry and very cold to me away from exposed coasts and is a hare's breath away from zilch

Redsunset · 06-03-2013 7:44pm

What's wrong with a 24-48 hour event? It's weather and very welcome here to discuss. Oh yes it's the Weather forum.
Check.

JanuarySnowstor · 06-03-2013 7:47pm

Redsunset wrote: »

What's wrong with a 24-48 hour event? It's weather and very welcome here to discuss. Oh yes it's the Weather forum.
Check.

Nothing it's fab but we have been here before and I would put my last dollar on that high sinking even further making us bone dry. As it stands the charts are JUST ok but as I said they are a hare's breath away from being cold an dry

rahmalec · 06-03-2013 7:47pm

Balls! The one time when I won't be around!

JanuarySnowstor · 06-03-2013 7:49pm

And at 192hrs the cold is gone.
Yawn... it's back to the footie for me lol
Severe frost Sunday, Monday and Tuesday nights is what I see

Redsunset · 06-03-2013 7:51pm

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

And at 192hrs the cold is gone.
Yawn... it's back to the footie for me lol
Severe frost Sunday, Monday and Tuesday nights is what I see

Bye then.

maquiladora · 06-03-2013 7:53pm

I notice there has already been a 2 degree adjustment since the 06Z GFS. I wouldn't be surprised to see -8 instead of -10 over Ireland on tomorrow mornings runs. There could even be further adjustments beyond that, as we have seen that type of thing happen several times before.... It could also end up being more dry here depending on how that high sinks.

Redsunset · 06-03-2013 7:57pm

I'm expecting eventual -6 to -8 uppers myself. Same old story around here with people getting in a twist over nothing.

ninebeanrows · 06-03-2013 8:00pm

Some very obscure views on here.

The depth of the cold depends on the strength of the advection which GFS is gunning for to be most intense, previous ECM runs had a slacker flow but has really pumped up the flow this evening, hence last nights -8c are now -10c and -12c.

I would expect the exact evolution the ECM takes after 120hrs to be somewhat of an outlier in its EPS.

It would appear the most likely scenario os a brief less cold 24/48hrs before another pulse of cold from the north with blocking set to dominate over Greenland in the medium term.

Initial watch for Severe Cold Plunge late Sunday/Monday with snow for many now probable. Eastern areas obviously most at risk of the most substantial stuff.

JanuarySnowstor · 06-03-2013 8:05pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

Some very obscure views on here.

Initial watch for Severe Cold Plunge late Sunday/Monday with snow for many now probable. Eastern areas obviously most at risk of the most substantial stuff.

How can you see so much snow WC with the high pressure cell so near to the North? Granted if the charts came off as is, it would be good for coastal areas but surely the slightest of nudges South tomorrow of that high pressure and the cold uppers are gone leaving us cold and dry.

The form horse for me is that the high will be further South leaving us cold and dry. Let's hope what I say is wrong but remembered if i'm right!

DanRu · 06-03-2013 8:08pm

Wow, some really great charts, moreover is the fact that this is happening in mid March. Now, where did I put that animated admit one gif!

derekon · 06-03-2013 8:13pm

Met UK now appear to be on board with the BBC forecast just before the 7pm news confirming that it will turn much colder as freezing air seeps in from the north and east late weekend. The snow was also mentioned.

Latest charts also look great.

Might this actually happen ? :rolleyes:

D

oterra · 06-03-2013 8:16pm

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

And at 192hrs the cold is gone.
Yawn... it's back to the footie for me lol
Severe frost Sunday, Monday and Tuesday nights is what I see

Yea in Cork maybe!

Speak Now · 06-03-2013 8:17pm

I learned my lesson from the brief cold easterly we got in February. Pressure very high, flow looked stable and dry but the Irish sea through up plenty on the Saturday. I have no doubt the east coast would see some action with those uppers. Of course i can understand this wouldnt be exciting from a Cork point of view!

JanuarySnowstor · 06-03-2013 8:28pm

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

I learned my lesson from the brief cold easterly we got in February. Pressure very high, flow looked stable and dry but the Irish sea through up plenty on the Saturday. I have no doubt the east coast would see some action with those uppers. Of course i can understand this wouldnt be exciting from a Cork point of view!

Actually Cork is best located as we are further from the incoming high pressure. If anywhere sees snow it will be the Southeast Coast.
I suppose a step back and it's great to see such cold uppers, experience tells me though that the high will slip further south on the models tomorrow
Let's hope I'm wrong

JanuarySnowstor · 06-03-2013 8:31pm

ECM precip charts over on N-W confirming a distinct lack of ppn

doccy · 06-03-2013 8:34pm

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

ECM precip charts over on N-W confirming a distinct lack of ppn

over East Cork

Gonzo · 06-03-2013 8:36pm

Whats the bets that Meath will end up under the Isle of Man shadow yet again! Lets hope its like the 2010 spell where variable changes in wind direction changes this shadow from time to time so that all areas eventually see decent enough snow fall. In 2010 the Dublin Airport and Dublin 15 areas of Blanchardstown and Castleknock had amazing depths of snow as they rarely fell under this shadow. Since it's March and winter should be over, I would be happy with 3 inchs of snow and thats it.

aboyro · 06-03-2013 8:52pm

"beast from the east" i never gave up on you:D:D

M.T. Cranium · 06-03-2013 8:56pm

On these current model runs, it would appear that a half-day window opens up for significant snowfall, moving from north to south with the gradient and very cold uppers. Timing at present would be Sunday night for east Ulster, Monday early morning for north Leinster, Monday mid-day for Dublin and Wicklow and Monday late afternoon or evening for south coast. In all cases this time window for snow is followed by clearing and potential for near-record cold with just minor snow potential rest of week.

Not wishing to speculate yet on amounts but we're talking about a significant if short-term accumulation given the blast of cold that would be injected into an already moist air mass. Western half of the country would be largely dry but hit or miss remnant snow flurries could arrive as winds will be briefly quite strong (ENE 40-70 km/hr). If you don't hold me to this I would say 10-20 cm local accumulation potential in the usual snow-prone areas and 5-10 cm closer to sea level, if the maps verify. Will begin to generate more serious snowfall forecasts at 0600h if the models don't backtrack on this.

By end of week into weekend of 16th-17th, the remnants of today's strong east coast U.S. storm would arrive after visiting the Azores around Tuesday, and there again the current charts indicate a snow potential with -5 to -8 uppers and no real change in air mass all week. I would be very cautious on that one at this ten-day time range, but just saying the conditions would be close to rain-snow mix at 150-300m from the guidance now available.

TheMilkyPirate · 06-03-2013 9:10pm

Hi MT, A lot of people won't care but what are your thoughts on this affecting the Cheltenham festival in england? Begins on Tuesday and runs through to Friday. Or would Cheltenham be too far west for significant disruption?

Birdnuts · 06-03-2013 9:32pm

The last cold March I can remember was back in 2006 - lets hope the coming summer follows a similiar pattern;)

Risk Of Heavy Snow Showers As It Turns Extremely Cold Sunday Night/Monday

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