Thursday/Friday Snow Potential

Mountainsandh · 15-12-2011 12:26am

redsunset wrote: »

Oh she'll move any way it wants in next runs and even become a magician and disappear.:D

Well I'm not thanking THAT ! :mad:;)

weathermaiden · 15-12-2011 2:12am

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Can be very hard to forecast snow, especially in this situation but I don’t even think she mentioned tomorrow night and the same after the six o clock news.

And here is the Gfs 18z run snow gone.

closeline · 15-12-2011 2:26am

Will there be any snow around Cork, near the town of Mallow??

kingshankly · 15-12-2011 3:11am

closeline wrote: »

Will there be any snow around Cork, near the town of Mallow??

that chart above should answer your question

mickger844posts · 15-12-2011 5:17am

NAE 0Z keeping slim hopes alive.

Dew Points not looking too bad.

bassy · 15-12-2011 5:30am

mickger when will that hit the southeast?

mickger844posts · 15-12-2011 6:06am

bassy wrote: »

mickger when will that hit the southeast?

There are no guarantees it will hit anywhere. If by some miracle that it happens and the NAE charts are right it would be after Midnight tonight. Thats a mighty big IF though

blackius · 15-12-2011 6:37am

ah the nae snow map...see how it turns snow to rain as it heads inland...
Indicative but wildly inaccurate.

This will be a high ground mostly event folks

irish1967 · 15-12-2011 8:59am

Latest sat. pic.

Cionád · 15-12-2011 11:38am

Any update on this? I guess the threat of snow is limited to ulster at this stage?

irish1967 · 15-12-2011 11:50am

Well if heavy continuous rain was snow we would be in drifts at this stage

arctictree · 15-12-2011 12:11pm

Looks like the front is hitting the south west at the moment. Will be interesting to see its exact track.

DarkJager · 15-12-2011 12:40pm

arctictree wrote: »

Looks like the front is hitting the south west at the moment. Will be interesting to see its exact track.

I'm in Limerick and there isn't a cloud around, lovely day out. Temp is at 6c.

davidsr20 · 15-12-2011 1:22pm

It was 0-1 degrees last nite but yet was pissing rain,I don't get it , does it not snow from 0-3 degrees or what other factors is needed?

Pangea · 15-12-2011 1:23pm

davidsr20 wrote: »

It was 0-1 degrees last nite but yet was pissing rain,I don't get it , does it not snow from 0-3 degrees or what other factors is needed?

Snowdance is essential..

blackius · 15-12-2011 1:29pm

davidsr20 wrote: »

It was 0-1 degrees last nite but yet was pissing rain,I don't get it , does it not snow from 0-3 degrees or what other factors is needed?

negative dewpoints and probably thickness ,the latter needs to be sub 525 or so to be sure if in off the atlantic in my experience.
Unfortunately a thing that goes awry when the polar air over you is mixed with too much atlantic muck sourced from the gulf of mexico.

Thats where northeasterlies sourced up above norway somewhere have the advantage.
No North atlantic gulf sourced air mixing in them.

Ditto for Easterlies and direct northerlies.

WolfeIRE · 15-12-2011 1:54pm

Just had a wet snow shower a half hour ago with graupel mixed in.

Dew point was about 1.5 at the time while the air temp was at 5.8c. Both the air temp and dew point have dropped considerably in the last hr. Hopefully some more showers push in this evening and tonight, I might just get lucky with some snow.

Reading from my weatHer station for the past 24 hours below.

Snow in Antrim

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ACEG89_7U-4

Tactical · 15-12-2011 1:57pm

Can you send some a little further to your South?

Been a reasonably bright and dry day so far here in West Limerick.

Tactical · 15-12-2011 2:00pm

The reporter is wearing a wooly hat!!

Who was the TV presenter last year who wore the hat a lot of people were talking about? The name escapes me at the moment

homolumo · 15-12-2011 2:03pm

Tactical wrote: »

The reporter is wearing a wooly hat!!

Who was the TV presenter last year who wore the hat a lot of people were talking about? The name escapes me at the moment

Paul Cunningham I think?

Min · 15-12-2011 2:05pm

homolumo wrote: »

Paul Cunningham I think?

...and his Afghan hat.

WolfeIRE · 15-12-2011 2:08pm

Tactical wrote: »

Can you send some a little further to your South?

Been a reasonably bright and dry day so far here in West Limerick.

Can send a courier down later if we get any, Tactical. Unless you can collect it in Tarbert?

Tactical · 15-12-2011 2:44pm

homolumo wrote: »

Paul Cunningham I think?

Don't think it was Paul who had the "original" hat. I might be wrong, but I don't think it was Paul.

Will trawl youtube a little later.

Tactical · 15-12-2011 2:45pm

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Can send a courier down later if we get any, Tactical. Unless you can collect it in Tarbert?

If you can supply good quality material I could take a spin in that direction

Wine Goddess · 15-12-2011 2:53pm

Tactical wrote: »

Don't think it was Paul who had the "original" hat. I might be wrong, but I don't think it was Paul.

Will trawl youtube a little later.

Ah it was, it was! I remember reading the thread at the time and howling with laughter as he looked so, so,..........dorky in his hat.:D

Su Campu · 15-12-2011 3:01pm

From the 12Z Valentia and Castor Bay soundings, the snowline is around 400 metres in the south, and around 650 metres in the north. Respective 850-1000/500-1000 thicknesses are 1301 m/529 dam at Valentia and 1309 m/528 dam at Castor. We would need around <1285 m and 520 dam for sea-level snow.

These should come down a bit after dark, but the lowest we can expect snow is around 150 m in the northwest and midlands.

munsterlegend · 15-12-2011 4:00pm

With no scientific basis to this belief i think we might get showers of snow to lower level if we get the precipitation later tonight. feels a bit colder today though the wind chill isn't there.

munsterlegend · 15-12-2011 4:07pm

I see where there is a warning for snow and slippery conditons in Munster tomorrow morning...

www.meteoalarm.eu

ArmaniJeanss · 15-12-2011 4:09pm

The Hat and Paul Cunningham.

WolfeIRE · 15-12-2011 4:23pm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GobGl38n6yw

gbee · 15-12-2011 4:38pm

munsterlegend wrote: »

I see where there is a warning for snow and slippery conditons in Munster tomorrow morning...

www.meteoalarm.eu

"no special awareness requires" Munster is in green as is Donegal, rest of the country in yellow for cold

snow ghost · 15-12-2011 4:49pm

Those were the days - freezing cold and Paul Cuningham reporting on it in his mad hat.

It has got to the point now where my body actually needs to see blue skys and the sun for more than a fleeting glance - if that - between the fairly persistant wind and rain. I don't know about everyone else around the country, but it feels like I haven't really seen blue skies or the sun since last April.

I'm used to vitamin D deficiency in the winter, but this has gone beyond that now to a psychological realm I'm like a fecking sun-deprived zombie desperate for a hit.

gbee · 15-12-2011 4:52pm

snow ghost wrote: »

I'm used to vitamin D deficiency in the winter, but this has gone beyond that now to a psychological realm I'm like a fecking sun-deprived zombie desperate for a hit.

A weekend away in Cork is what you want. We've had some lovely spells of beautiful weather with plenty of sunshine between the mild infrequent showers.

blackius · 15-12-2011 5:00pm

I can see the sharp border of the cloud from that system to the south from here.

Current temp in Arklow btw is 3.6c with a dewpoint of - 0.2c

munsterlegend · 15-12-2011 5:13pm

gbee wrote: »

"no special awareness requires" Munster is in green as is Donegal, rest of the country in yellow for cold

Munster is in yellow for tomorrow.

Iancar29 · 15-12-2011 5:20pm

munsterlegend wrote: »

Munster is in yellow for tomorrow.

The secondary low looks to be effecting munster from 6am.
http://maths.ucd.ie/met/mcc-forecast.html

WolfeIRE · 15-12-2011 5:28pm

ME

15 December 2011 16:15

Today Very cold this evening and tonight with frost and icy conditions. Some rain or sleet near the south coast will die away early tonight. Scattered showers elsewhere will become confined to western and northern coastal counties for a time but will move further inland through parts of west Munster, Connaught and Ulster later tonight, some of snow in places. Some pockets of fog around dawn. Overnight lows of 0 to -4 degrees.

Tomorrow

Very cold and frosty tomorrow morning with sunny spells and scattered wintry showers of hail, sleet and snow but the showers turning more to rain or hail in the afternoon and becoming confined to western counties by evening. Top temperatures of 3 to 6 degrees

snaps · 15-12-2011 5:28pm

Su Campu wrote: »

From the 12Z Valentia and Castor Bay soundings, the snowline is around 400 metres in the south, and around 650 metres in the north. Respective 850-1000/500-1000 thicknesses are 1301 m/529 dam at Valentia and 1309 m/528 dam at Castor. We would need around <1285 m and 520 dam for sea-level snow.

These should come down a bit after dark, but the lowest we can expect snow is around 150 m in the northwest and midlands.

Snow level on mountains to the back of me now is down to approx 250m. Steadily during the day i can see the snow line descending down the hills/mountains.

WolfeIRE · 15-12-2011 5:32pm

I do hope I see some shower activity tonight. Temp is now 1.6c and DP is -0.7c.

munsterlegend · 15-12-2011 6:17pm

Issued at 15 December 2011 - 17:03
Weather Warning
Very cold,frosty and icy this evening and overnight. Some sleet or snow showers expected later tonight and tomorrow morning, mainly in parts of the southwest,west and north.

No mention of the dreaded High Ground!

Tactical · 15-12-2011 6:23pm

If I see any snow I'll get a picture and maybe even some video of it falling if I'm lucky enough to have any in my neck of the woods.

Dunno what the temperature outside is, but I'm not even wearing a jumper when outdoors today

It has clouded over now, earlier it was mixed and fairly bright.

jo06555 · 15-12-2011 6:58pm

Any change in the latest charts in relation to south?

Iancar29 · 15-12-2011 7:07pm

Clear here now , cars frosting up already , temp -0.5

Su Campu · 15-12-2011 7:39pm

Here's what the Met Éireann aviation chart for midnight tonight shows.

For Ireland, it gives light rain showers, occasionally moderate in the west coast. Freezing level 1000 ft (300 m) over Ulster and Leinster.

The trailing occlusion affects the far north and northeastern coastal counties and western Scotland, bringing snow and sleet showers on mountains, otherwise rain and sleet showers. Isolated graupel showers and thunderstorms along coasts.

For the far southeastern coast, as well as Wales, southern England and northern France, it gives occasional moderate rain, drizzle and sleet.

cherryghost · 15-12-2011 7:41pm

tbh the forecast for any snow potential is over 200m for the next 4 days, then a milder outlook until new years

munsterlegend · 15-12-2011 8:24pm

Su Campu wrote: »

Here's what the Met Éireann aviation chart for midnight tonight shows.

For Ireland, it gives light rain showers, occasionally moderate in the west coast. Freezing level 1000 ft (300 m) over Ulster and Leinster.

The trailing occlusion affects the far north and northeastern coastal counties and western Scotland, bringing snow and sleet showers on mountains, otherwise rain and sleet showers. Isolated graupel showers and thunderstorms along coasts.

For the far southeastern coast, as well as Wales, southern England and northern France, it gives occasional moderate rain, drizzle and sleet.

Then why do met eireann have a weather warning on their site for sleet and snow showers? Not too many people reside in Ireland 300m above asl.

Iancar29 · 15-12-2011 8:32pm

Dangerous out there already folks!! Roads with black Ice on them here in N Dublin!
Did a bit of Ice skating an all! Ha

Great walking the dog weather though !

Villain · 15-12-2011 8:39pm

I hit -1.4c but back up to -0.4c now as some cloud rolls in, the High Res charts I looked at had a band of Sleet and Snow pushing down from the NW from about 6am with a chance of Snow in a line from North Dublin to Donegal, most likely Sleet on lower levels but Snow possible for a while. Next set of charts will be interesting.

http://iwo.ie/2011/12/15/weather-warning-cold-ice-and-possible-snow-151211/

inabina · 15-12-2011 8:59pm

folks the latest radar showing the precip edging up slightly...any chance of it causing some trouble with the low temps?

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 15-12-2011 9:00pm

inabina wrote: »

folks the latest radar showing the precip edging up slightly...any chance of it causing some trouble with the low temps?

Was just gonna ask the same thing :pac:

Thursday/Friday Snow Potential

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