Thursday/Friday Snow Potential

Musicman2000

If the low sinks further south than expected its game over, Even in Waterford it will be very marginal you would really need to be 20k inland.

only one

and what way is the low ment to sink at the moment?

jo06555

Musicman2000 wrote: »

If the low sinks further south than expected its game over, Even in Waterford it will be very marginal you would really need to be 20k inland.

I'm on the Waterford / killkenny border but will still probably miss out

nacho libre

Rodar08 wrote: »

Not looking good for Donegal then Would you be able to tell me how many meters Buncrana is asl? Thanks Donegal gets good coverage but not so much here in Buncrana .. Even Derry seems to do better than us weather wise and thats only 14 miles away. Snow dance continuing

Friday and into the weekend look good for showers in the north and west to be mainly of sleet and snow as colder air from the north digs in. So don't give up hope yet.

maw368

I'm in Brecon Mid to South Wales and just hoping the heavy snow from North Wales may drift down a bit to me

screamer

If the snow does arrive in the SE, what time of the day should it arrive, morning, afternoon or evening?

Harps

Best chance tomorrow night by the looks of it

Looks like we're still marginal for snow for the next few days as well, getting a bit sick of the wet mucky stuff we've had all week but at least its better than Atlantic fronts

kenmc

screamer wrote: »

If the snow does arrive in the SE, what time of the day should it arrive, morning, afternoon or evening?

are you delivering to order?

screamer

Nah, have a trip to take tomorrow, and was figuring if I knew what time roughly the weather would get bad, I'd plan to be there and back before it arrives, if it arrives, that's all. Snow +driving = mental traffic + p*ssed screamer!

Villain

The High Res charts I saw looked pretty good for inland areas of the SE.

I posted my thoughts on http://iwo.ie/2011/12/14/risk-of-snow-thursday-night-151211/

darkman2

Funnily enough 10m winds are currently progged to remain offshore in the East which does increase the chances of some snow at sea level. The 850hpa winds go Easterly but it's not as important due to the fact temperatures at that level will be meandering between -4 and -6c.

JanuarySnowstor

For me tomorrow wont happen.
It will either miss us completely or be too mild.
Next.....

bb1234567

so let me get this straight, we are getting an easterly airflow but its to weak or something?is mainland europe not yet cold enough?

racso1975

Lashing rain in carlow very windy would imagine that it would be very difficult for snow to stick

Su Campu

I think tomorrow evening freezing rain will be more of an issue for more people than snow. Theta-e and theta-w range from above +20/+6 °C in the south to +15/+3 °C nearer the northern extremity of the rain, which would equate to a snowline of around 400 m in the south to 150 m in the north. If any frost sets in before the rain arrives, it is possible that any rain falling may freeze on contact for a while, causing a slight glaze on surfaces. Whether a frost will set in though is another question, with increasin mid and high level cloud arriving before the rain.

I think people in the southeast shouldn't be getting their hopes up for snow any times soon, unless you live a few hundred metres up. Better chance further north, but even then it will be a sleety mix for most.

Best chance for low level snow is showers in the north and west on Saturday.

screamer

Thanks Su Campu, I'm only 150M, and it's raining right now, will be happy to see no snow until closer to xmas when I don't have to drive anywhere. Cheers.

pauldry

well you wont see any snow at xmas coz its gonna be mild 8 to 11c next week

Gonzo

highly doubt meath will see anything from this and if we do it wont be much, had a very light dusting of snow this morning. still a few patchs from yesterday morning left in the garden. Then again yesterday's snow came as a complete surprise as atlantic based cold spells normally never deliver here so anything's possible. Good to hear that Christmas week will be mild, really dont like having snow during the runup to christmas.

Su Campu

I should have pointed out that the snowline will start lower in the south earlier tomorrow as the first rain arrives - probably 150-200 m - but will quickly rise to around 400 m.

jo06555

Su Campu wrote: »

I should have pointed out that the snowline will start lower in the south earlier tomorrow as the first rain arrives - probably 150-200 m - but will quickly rise to around 400 m.

So this thread is a non starter then as nothing major or new is really happening?

derekon

Just saw the BBC weather and it has Dublin covered in the white stuff from around 8pm-11pm tomorrow night..........wee chance of snow I would say!

D

Su Campu

Met Éireann:

Thursday

Further wintry showers will affect the north and west but other areas will be mainly dry. However, outbreaks of rain or sleet are likely to affect southern coastal counties later tomorrow evening. Winds slackening during the day but remaining cold; highest temperatures 4 to 7 degrees.

Outlook

Thursday night will be very cold with temperatures falling to between 0 and -3 degrees. Rain will move into western parts overnight and some snow is likely too. Showers will continue along the west and north coasts on Friday and it will feel cold in moderate to fresh northwest winds. Some of the showers will be wintry, with hail, sleet and snow likely. Highs will range from 3 to 6 degrees. Cold again on Friday night with lowest temperatures of -1 to 2 degrees. It will stay cold on Saturday with more showers in the west and north as the chilly northerly winds persist. Temperatures will struggle to reach 4 or 5 degrees, while at night temperatures will plummet to between -1 and -4 degrees, with a widespread severe frost and icy patches. Sunday will be a similar day with further showers and low temperatures.

jo06555

Rte. / Met eireann weather only showing rain and sleet for tommorrow so I suppose that's that then the fun of snow is over once again

NickDrake

Can Met Eireann get it wrong again? Wouldn't be the first time.

I remember they messed up big time by missing the snow that hit the East one night last winter when it came in off the Irish sea

Su Campu

The Wicklow mountains will get a pasting alright, and Sally Gap could be closed come Friday morning, but at low level I think it will be as I stated above.

bb1234567

NickDrake wrote: »

Can Met Eireann get it wrong again? Wouldn't be the first time.

I remember they messed up big time by missing the snow that hit the East one night last winter when it came in off the Irish sea

yep remember it well,they forecast a fairly dry night with a few light snow showers, turns out a massive dumping of snow hit dublin,7 inches in one night think it was 18th december ,didnt stop snowing after that until 26th december stephens day when it all melted. we had somewhere around 1 ft 5 inches in rathgar in dublin last year on xmas day...good times:D

Musicman2000

bb1234567 wrote: »

yep remember it well,they forecast a fairly dry night with a few light snow showers, turns out a massive dumping of snow hit dublin,7 inches in one night think it was 18th december ,didnt stop snowing after that until 26th december stephens day when it all melted. we had somewhere around 1 ft 5 inches in rathgar in dublin last year on xmas day...good times:D

Can be very hard to forecast snow, especially in this situation but I don’t even think she mentioned tomorrow night and the same after the six o clock news.

And here is the Gfs 18z run snow gone.

darkman2

18z GFS has put the bulk of precipitation well to the South with most of the country dry tomorrow night. Similar to the 12z Hirlam and ECM forecast.

smallwonder

Su Campu wrote: »

I think tomorrow evening freezing rain will be more of an issue for more people than snow. Theta-e and theta-w range from above +20/+6 °C in the south to +15/+3 °C nearer the northern extremity of the rain, which would equate to a snowline of around 400 m in the south to 150 m in the north. If any frost sets in before the rain arrives, it is possible that any rain falling may freeze on contact for a while, causing a slight glaze on surfaces. Whether a frost will set in though is another question, with increasin mid and high level cloud arriving before the rain.

What do you reckon the probability is of this happening in the North West? I've a bit of driving to do tomorrow evening.

jo06555

So that's that then I should of known it was too good to be true