Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie
Hi all! We have been experiencing an issue on site where threads have been missing the latest postings. The platform host Vanilla are working on this issue. A workaround that has been used by some is to navigate back from 1 to 10+ pages to re-sync the thread and this will then show the latest posts. Thanks, Mike.
Hi there,
There is an issue with role permissions that is being worked on at the moment.
If you are having trouble with access or permissions on regional forums please post here to get access: https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058365403/you-do-not-have-permission-for-that#latest
There is an issue with role permissions that is being worked on at the moment.
If you are having trouble with access or permissions on regional forums please post here to get access: https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058365403/you-do-not-have-permission-for-that#latest
FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Spring 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
Comments
-
-
+240 hrs out but as the calendar changes to meteorological Summer, the weather becomes thematically appropriate on the ECM 0z today with northern blocking to take off on the last day of May and on into the beginning of June. This forces the jet stream to go on a southerly track with low pressures coming in from the Atlantic on a northeasterly airflow. Basically, cold and wet. Quite a familiar sight ah?
The GFS is varying from run to run. For instance, the 06z was showing the high pressure moving back to the east throwing up another warm spell for early June. The 12z at the same time frame as the above ECM 0z shows high pressure just to the northwest of Ireland with cooler conditions than days preceding it. However, remaining settled despite this. After it, the high pressure builds more over top of us than to the northwest for the first week of June. So quite a disagreement between these two models. Remember that this is FI.
If you'd like a continuation of more settled conditions, GFS is your friend right now. If you'd like a breakdown with much cooler and wet conditions, ECM is your friend at the moment.
Gotta say, it is not normal for the GFS to be showing such a prolonged period of settled conditions. Usually, it wants us to go back to a normal pattern as soon as possible.
All to play for. At the moment, I don't have any money on which is more likely as I think both have an equal chance.
Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/
Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1
0 -
-
What a chart from the GFS 12z for next Monday.
Meanwhile..... the CAPE for next Monday and Tuesday (28th and 29th May).
Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/
Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1
0 -
-
+15 at 850 hPa or not, temps next week will struggle to get above 18C on these coastal fringes. Damn sea breeze. Only thing missing is sea fog at this stage...In fairness though its looking very settled and dry right into the longer term!
Yeah, we need a larger HP to park itself on top of us and stay there until..September? Please?
I think the East will see a few days in the 20's. We had 19-20 on Friday and Saturday and also 10 days ago and this period will be significantly warmer if it comes off.
Mayo would be positively freezing compared to Benelux / Western Germany next week. 36 degrees forecast.
0 -
Yeah, we need a larger HP to park itself on top of us and stay there until..September? Please?
I think the East will see a few days in the 20's. We had 19-20 on Friday and Saturday and also 10 days ago and this period will be significantly warmer if it comes off.
Mayo would be positively freezing compared to Benelux / Western Germany next week. 36 degrees forecast.
its all relative,the immediate east coast will be baltic compared to the west late this week into next weekend.
Mayo will be boiling in comparison to Reykavik. etc etc
comparing inland continental europe to the west coast of ireland is a bit pointless.
anyways looks like the heat is locked in for some,
fire up the barbie.0 -
-
-
Advertisement
-
-
Northern blocking idea by the ECM 0z is gone on its 12z run with the high pressure building over us again, so more in line with the GFS on this run now.
Not as warm as GFS 12z but still quite a warm Sunday by the ECM. Quite slack gradients to the south and west of both the UK and Ireland.
Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/
Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1
0 -
-
This is way out but with all that heat early next week and potential for humidity and moisture in the atmosphere coming in from Europe there are some massive CAPE readings showing up for Ireland and more so the UK. Interesting to see if it happens.
0 -
-
ECM bringing temperatures up to the mid - high twenties next weekend in the midlands, west and northwest. Always cooler toward east and south coasts.
Looks pleasant but there is an increasing risk of thunderstorms with time.
In fact out to 240 hrs is real summer weather that i'm sure we'll all enjoy.
0 -
Advertisement
-
-
squarecircles wrote: »im a tad confused too,
you talk of benelux,
i talk of benelux,
i never say dont talk of benelux.
you say i say you shudnt talk of Benelux
i take back that making such comparisons is pointless.
talk about whatever,and where ever you like.
you could have made the comparison without deriding the
temperatures forecast for the west next week.Its been a long cold winter and spring.
but as you say it was light hearted but in my humble opinion
its far from "freezing"!
I'm just gonna thank think and let's move on
0 -
Kermit.de.frog wrote: »ECM bringing temperatures up to the mid - high twenties next weekend in the midlands, west and northwest. Always cooler toward east and south coasts.
Looks pleasant but there is an increasing risk of thunderstorms with time.
In fact out to 240 hrs is real summer weather that i'm sure we'll all enjoy.
Poor leaving cert students0 -
-
-
Advertisement
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
meteroite58 Have we any chance of a storm in the West over the weekend
Sticking my neck on the block here , could be wrong ( often am ) but I think yes. Looking at very warm temperatures and high humidity and rain bearing cloud coming from SE / E out of Europe. Huge amount of moisture in the atmosphere with potential for very heavy rain/ showers perhaps Sun/ Mon.
Sat more so in the Southern half perhaps but not ruling out the W
Sun perhaps widespread
Mon widespread ( potential for some severe thunderstorms breaking out perhaps )
Tues widespread ( perhaps but not too sure at this stage again potential for severe thunderstorms ).
Just my very amateur opinion. A very interesting spell of weather watching and learning coming up.0 -
Such an odd and unique pattern that I have not seen in my model watching years until now. Up to the first few days of June, it is just a slack easterly flow with rather lower pressure over Ireland, England and Wales but the north and Scotland staying very dry throughout. Through the first week of June, the high pressure from the north just ridges over us and to the east dragging up further warm temperatures. The jet stream is way to the north but the air is just too unstable over us until early June on the models for really settled weather to take place.
Still no sign of a breakdown in this.
The GFS 12z is cooler compared to the 0z especially out west interestingly enough.
Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/
Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1
0 -
-
-
Advertisement
-
Warm and wet is the basic summary for the outlook. GEFS 12z for Dublin perfectly show it. Gradually becoming cooler but still staying on the warmer than average side of upper air temperatures.
Meanwhile, the GFS 12z today is still staying with the same solution of continued unstable easterlies for the rest of May into early June before an area of high pressure builds over top of the country (it briefly attempts to retrogress to Iceland on the 3rd/4th June).
Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/
Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1
0 -
-
-
GFS 0z still has no changes! Consistent easterly winds and high pressure keeps reforming itself too just to the north of us. Did somebody forget to tell the GFS that Summer is around the corner? :P
Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/
Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1
0 -
Finally some changes on the GFS model!
The retrogression of the high becomes more influential on the 0z than before and in fact, a northerly to northeasterly takes place for the first week of June. Becoming very cool and at times, unsettled too.
For those that don't want this, it's an outlier in the GFS ensembles.
Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/
Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1
0 -
-
-
And.... GFS 12z brings the settled solution back. Like yesterday's 0z now again with an initial attempt at retrogression of the high on the 3rd/4th but then comes back down over us. It weakens towards the end of that week before at the end of FI, we get another ridge from the Azores.
Still warm by next Saturday!
Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/
Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1
0 -
-
Advertisement
-
GFS 12z is a very warm run again with lots of warm weather throughout. This chart at +312 hours is nice to look at. 564 dam line in through Ireland. I think the atmosphere has gone mad.
Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/
Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1
0
Advertisement