European Parliament Elections 2019

charlie14 · 23-05-2019 5:57pm

is_that_so wrote: »

Smith's problem is that he seems to be very low on FPV support but he's been pretty unimpressive. I don't think he'll get that many from McGuinness. Walsh potentially has a huge pile waiting for her, which would leave her too far ahead of him. The Casey thing I include as an example of FF getting it wrong. I really don't think he's in anyway transfer friendly.

I`m not that sure McGuinness having a huge pile of transfers will be better for Walsh than if the two of them split the vote evenly between them. Walsh is new, and geography could play a part in where McGuinness`s transfers go with Smith being from Cavan.

If McGuinness and Walsh`s votes are closer together, McGuinness would make it anyway as she is very transfer friendly. I may be wrong but for Walsh to take that seat, then I feel she will most likely have to be a few points better than Smith on the first count as he will get the vast bulk of Rabbitte`s transfer when she is eliminated.
The other question is if it does end up with the final seat between Walsh and Smith, where will Casey`s vote go when he is eliminated.
I would imagine they are more FF gene pool than FG.

is_that_so · 23-05-2019 6:06pm

charlie14 wrote: »

I`m not that sure McGuinness having a huge pile of transfers will be better for Walsh than if the two of them split the vote evenly between them. Walsh is new, and geography could play a part in where McGuinness`s transfers go with Smith being from Cavan.

If McGuinness and Walsh`s votes are closer together, McGuinness would make it anyway as she is very transfer friendly. I may be wrong but for Walsh to take that seat, then I feel she will most likely have to be a few points better than Smith on the first count as he will get the vast bulk of Rabbitte`s transfer when she is eliminated.

FG seem to be working towards that with her over as far as Kildare campaigning. Yeah it is easier to have the FPVs higher. If Walsh gets to low teens on FPVs then they have the second seat. I don't know why you imagine transfers for Smith off McGuinness over her running mate. In 2014 she got the vast majority of transfers from Higgins. Only Harkin got anything worthwhile. Walsh seems to be a good distance ahead of Smith. She would be transfer friendly and could reasonably expect votes from both the Greens and Labour. Their share should be 5%-6% at least and a fair number of those cancels out the Rabbitte transfers.

johnnyskeleton · 23-05-2019 6:13pm

robwen wrote: »

Oh look little point trying to discuss with folk here most of ye have your own agendas to push, going by this thread no one's voting for the 2 biggest parties in the state, FG & FF will have no one elected, goodluck tomor don't forget to vote early & vote often

Mod note:

More constructive posts please

charlie14 · 23-05-2019 6:23pm

is_that_so wrote: »

FG seem to be working towards that with her over as far as Kildare campaigning. Yeah it is easier to have the FPVs higher. If Walsh gets to low teens on FPVs then they have the second seat. I don't know why you imagine transfers for Smith off McGuinness over her running mate. In 2014 she got the vast majority of transfers from Higgins. Only Harkin got anything worthwhile. Walsh seems to be a good distance ahead of Smith. She would be transfer friendly and could reasonably expect votes from both the Greens and Labour. They share should be 5%-6% at least and a fair number of those cancels out the Rabbitte transfers.

European elections do not always follow the tight transfers between running mates you have in General Elections where both would be well known in a relatively small geographical area. Neighbours children can often come in for a consideration as much as party where you have a large geographical spread. Especially in rural border areas.

is_that_so · 23-05-2019 6:32pm

charlie14 wrote: »

European elections do not always follow the tight transfers between running mates you have in General Elections where both would be well known in a relatively small geographical area. Neighbours children can often come in for a consideration as much as party where you have a large geographical spread. Especially in rural border areas.

I think you're really stretching here especially in imagining sizable FG transfers to FF. He may get a few but Walsh would get the lion's share of them, if FG have their vote management right. By the same argument you one could claim some of Rabbitte's transfers will go to Walsh.

Galwayguy35 · 23-05-2019 6:36pm

is_that_so wrote: »

Based on what?

She's not popular this side of the country and she needs every voteshe can get.

Galwayguy35 · 23-05-2019 6:38pm

is_that_so wrote: »

Casey will not get the transfers.

Granted he made a bit of a hames of it in the debate but i think he might do better than people think.

I wouldn't write him off just yet.

is_that_so · 23-05-2019 6:40pm

Galwayguy35 wrote: »

She's not popular this side of the country and she needs every voteshe can get.

She has a running mate who should top the poll at over 20%, probably quite a bit over. She herself currently seems to be in the pack on 10%. That's not unpopular at all. If they get the transfers right and she is on 10%+ she'll be elected.

is_that_so · 23-05-2019 6:44pm

Galwayguy35 wrote: »

Granted he made a bit of a hames of it in the debate but i think he might do better than people think.

I wouldn't write him off just yet.

Who'll give him 2nd preferences etc. ? If you vote for any other candidate, except maybe Renua, he's really not someone you might consider. As I've said before there are parallels with Ganley in 2009 - he needs to be close to 15% FPV to have any hope because he will not attract too many transfers.

Galwayguy35 · 23-05-2019 6:48pm

is_that_so wrote: »

She has a running mate who should top the poll at over 20%, probably quite a bit over. She herself currently seems to be in the pack on 10%. That's not unpopular at all. If they get the transfers right and she is on 10%+ she'll be elected.

So you think she could get the 4th seat?

I'd say McGuinness, Carty and Ming will get the first 3, would you agree with that?

KikiLaRue · 23-05-2019 6:49pm

Galwayguy35 wrote: »

Granted he made a bit of a hames of it in the debate but i think he might do better than people think.

I wouldn't write him off just yet.

He wrote himself off with his arrogance. This isn’t like the presidential election where there was no candidate from FF or FG to compete with.

He has no ground campaign, no posters, nothing more than trite soundbites to offer.

is_that_so · 23-05-2019 6:50pm

Galwayguy35 wrote: »

So you think she could get the 4th seat?

I'd say McGuinness, Carty and Ming will get the first 3, would you agree with that?

Yep on the first 3. I think she may well be better placed because of McGuinness. Smith would be another possibility but he needs a good FPV. I will say I am surprised her support is so high, I had her down for maybe 7%-8% before the campaign. Then again I didn't expect McGuinness to be such a shoo-in.

Galwayguy35 · 23-05-2019 6:54pm

KikiLaRue wrote: »

He wrote himself off with his arrogance. This isn’t like the presidential election where there was no candidate from FF or FG to compete with.

He has no ground campaign, no posters, nothing more than trite soundbites to offer.

He was all over the place all right, stupid move as well giving out about EU migrants who nobody has a problem with at all.

charlie14 · 23-05-2019 6:54pm

is_that_so wrote: »

I think you're really stretching here especially in imagining sizable FG transfers to FF. He may get a few but Walsh would get the lion's share of them, if FG have their vote management right. By the same argument you one could claim some of Rabbitte's transfers will go to Walsh.

European elections do not necessarily follow the party voting transfers, or even party support patterns of Dail or local elections. In 2014 for example, FG had a very good European election whereas their local elections were a bit of a disaster.

I am not saying that Smith will get more McGuinness transfers than Walsh, or anywhere near it, but if it is a tight finish between the two then being from the same area as McGuinness could pick him up enough of her transfers to make the difference.

charlie14 · 23-05-2019 6:59pm

Galwayguy35 wrote: »

He was all over the place all right, stupid move as well giving out about EU migrants who nobody has a problem with at all.

He is a chancer. But then many thought there was not a problem with migrants of itinerants in the lead up to the presidential election. I cannot see him getting a seat, but where his 2nds go could have a serious bearing as too who gets one.

is_that_so · 23-05-2019 7:04pm

charlie14 wrote: »

European elections do not necessarily follow the party voting transfers, or even party support patterns of Dail or local elections. In 2014 for example, FG had a very good European election whereas their local elections were a bit of a disaster.

I am not saying that Smith will get more McGuinness transfers than Walsh, or anywhere near it, but if it is a tight finish between the two then being from the same area as McGuinness could pick him up enough of her transfers to make the difference.

Well people protest in locals. More obvious voting behaviour in the Euros. It will all be down to how many FPVs he can get and that's not looking good. 1%-2% ahead of Walsh and it could be tighter but McGuinness won't help him. If he gets more than a 1000 transfers from McGuinness that will be a lot. Relative to what could be available to Walsh that's really of no use to him.

is_that_so · 23-05-2019 7:05pm

charlie14 wrote: »

He is a chancer. But then many thought there was not a problem with migrants of itinerants in the lead up to the presidential election. I cannot see him getting a seat, but where his 2nds go could have a serious bearing as too who gets one.

I saw someone suggest elsewhere that he will probably elect Ming! Or there may be too few 2nd prefs to make any difference to anything.

charlie14 · 23-05-2019 7:19pm

is_that_so wrote: »

Well people protest in locals. More obvious voting behaviour in the Euros. It will all be down to how many FPVs he can get and that's not looking good. 1%-2% ahead of Walsh and it could be tighter but McGuinness won't help him. If he gets more than a 1000 transfers from McGuinness that will be a lot. Relative to what could be available to Walsh that's really of no use to him.

Granted people do protest in local elections, but that does not explain the voting pattern of the 2014 European and local elections. People voted strongly against FG in those local elections and strongly in favour of FF. Yet in the European election on the same day those party votes were more or less reversed. That would suggest, to me at least, that European elections are as much to do with the candidate and their location as party loyalty.
That`s why I would see transfers being much looser in the Europeans and not as predictable as in Dail elections.
The other variable here if it does come down to Walsh and Smith, is where Casey goes out and where his vote then goes.

charlie14 · 23-05-2019 7:23pm

is_that_so wrote: »

I saw someone suggest elsewhere that he will probably elect Ming! Or there may be too few 2nd prefs to make any difference to anything.

Quite possibly, or they could go all over the place. If they are to have a say in the last seat though and it is down to Walsh and Smith, I cannot see Walsh getting many.

is_that_so · 23-05-2019 7:35pm

charlie14 wrote: »

Granted people do protest in local elections, but that does not explain the voting pattern of the 2014 European and local elections. People voted strongly against FG in those local elections and strongly in favour of FF. Yet in the European election on the same day those party votes were more or less reversed. That would suggest, to me at least, that European elections are as much to do with the candidate and their location as party loyalty.
That`s why I would see transfers being much looser in the Europeans and not as predictable as in Dail elections.
The other variable here if it does come down to Walsh and Smith, is where Casey goes out and where his vote then goes.

As I said more typical behaviour in Euros. I don't think your loose transfer hypothesis holds up, save for a Marian Harkin type. Neither Labour nor FG voters will opt for SF, some FF voters might. FF voters will give higher preferences to Labour and the Greens but rarely to FG. FG voters would be similar but also favour Labour and the Greens but never SF. Labour and the Green would favour most parties except SF. I don't think there will be a huge second preference out of Casey at all. Smith needs a good FPV, without it she's in.

charlie14 · 23-05-2019 8:05pm

is_that_so wrote: »

As I said more typical behaviour in Euros. I don't think your loose transfer hypothesis holds up, save for a Marian Harkin type. Neither Labour nor FG voters will opt for SF, some FF voters might. FF voters will give higher preferences to Labour and the Greens but rarely to FG. FG voters would be similar but also favour Labour and the Greens but never SF. Labour and the Green would favour most parties except SF. I don't think there will be a huge second preference out of Casey at all. Smith needs a good FPV, without it she's in.

Based on the last European and local elections I do not see how in 2014 the Europeans were typical of voters voting along typical party lines.
FG had a poor local election where FF had a good one.That was repeated in the following GE. Typical of party voting in both local and national elections.

The 2014 European election was the very opposite when it came to party support.

I would not rule out Casey having a half decent 1st. preference vote, but I cannot see him progressing from that on transfers. Whatever 1st preference he gets will be distributed when he is eliminated. If that vote is the difference between Walsh or Smith taking the seat then from his presidential vote I would be of the opinion that vote was mainly from the FF gene pool. If that is again where his votes come from then they will favour Smith much more than Walsh

Inquitus · 23-05-2019 8:12pm

No exit poll for the UK vote, sadly, and no results until all 27 EU elections have concluded on Sunday at 10pm Irish time. We have an exit poll, but again no official results until all countries have finished voting, and most likely to come through on Monday.

An Ciarraioch · 23-05-2019 8:22pm

We do have a Dutch exit poll, however, and it appears that Forum for Democracy, the new Eurosceptic party there, have underperformed, only finishing fourth when they were expected to top the poll:

http://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1131637132412542976

dark crystal · 23-05-2019 8:31pm

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

We do have a Dutch exit poll, however, and it appears that Forum for Democracy, the new Eurosceptic party there, have underperformed, only finishing fourth when they were expected to top the poll:

http://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1131637132412542976

I hope this is a sign of things to come for Farage...

robman60 · 23-05-2019 8:35pm

dark crystal wrote: »

I hope this is a sign of things to come for Farage...

Looking at the chart, the difference between second and fourth is only about 3.5%. Farage is double digits ahead, and will romp home.

An Ciarraioch · 23-05-2019 8:46pm

And we have seat projections, with one far-right party only filling what it's predecessor lost:

http://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1131644561669939200

L1011 · 23-05-2019 8:51pm

That's some recovery for the PvdA based on their last GE results - 7th largest there.

Jamie2k9 · 23-05-2019 8:51pm

If such fractured results like this appear across the block, it will be equally as bad had the right taken around third of seats as predicted. France and Germany results will tell a lot.

It could be 5 years of little change.

badtoro · 23-05-2019 10:14pm

When does the count start for the EP elections here, and might we have an ETA on indications?

Inquitus · 23-05-2019 10:16pm

badtoro wrote: »

When does the count start for the EP elections here, and might we have an ETA on indications?

Exit poll when the polls close tomorrow, count begins on Sunday, most results expected on Monday.

An Ciarraioch · 23-05-2019 10:30pm

Turnout observations in NI:

https://sluggerotoole.com/2019/05/23/ep19-election-day-open-thread/

Sir Oxman · 23-05-2019 11:49pm

Dublin for me and it's a difficult one with the left of centre field packed with three good candidates

I wouldn't like to lose Clare Daly from the Dail but for me she is the best of the field and the frontrunner for a left seat (exc Boylan)
Alice-Mary Higgins is very strong and I like Eilish Ryan of WP

The quandry is whether I put Daly #1 and Higgins #2 or vice versa or stick Boylan in at #2 to ensure maximum chance for left seat.
Choices:
#1 Daly #2 Boylan #3 Higgins
#1 Higgins #2 Daly #3 Boylan

The only other candidates I would preference after 1-3 is Gannon and Cuffe possibly - I rarely fill out the whole paper as I would never consider FG/FF/Lab no matter who they are or any of the other loons on this ballot (O'Doherty, Kelly, Gilroy etc)

Stephen15 · 23-05-2019 11:58pm

For me it will be

1. Gemma O'Doherty
2. Ben Gilroy
3. Herman Kelly

blanch152 · 24-05-2019 12:16am

charlie14 wrote: »

European elections do not necessarily follow the party voting transfers, or even party support patterns of Dail or local elections. In 2014 for example, FG had a very good European election whereas their local elections were a bit of a disaster.

.

Maybe I am missing something, or maybe Wikipedia is wrong, but......

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_European_Parliament_election_in_Ireland

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Irish_local_elections

FG got 22.28% in the 2014 European elections
FG got 24% in the 2014 local elections.

I am confused as to how you conclue that they had a very good European election whereas their local elections were a bit of a disaster. To me, neither vote was very good, but the locals were significantly better than the Euros, which is the opposite of your post.

blanch152 · 24-05-2019 12:25am

is_that_so wrote: »

As I said more typical behaviour in Euros. I don't think your loose transfer hypothesis holds up, save for a Marian Harkin type. Neither Labour nor FG voters will opt for SF, some FF voters might. FF voters will give higher preferences to Labour and the Greens but rarely to FG. FG voters would be similar but also favour Labour and the Greens but never SF. Labour and the Green would favour most parties except SF. I don't think there will be a huge second preference out of Casey at all. Smith needs a good FPV, without it she's in.

Good analysis.

Casey transfers are likely to go all over the place. There is a certain element who will see him as more protest than Ming, but who will then give second preference to Ming, which really means Ming is safe, so long as he gets a decent first preference and Casey gets eliminated relatively early.

votecounts · 24-05-2019 12:28am

blanch152 · 24-05-2019 12:33am

votecounts wrote: »

.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1130726/european-elections-exit-poll-uk-eu-elections

From this, it seems no. Actually, if EU countries are voting until Sunday, we can't count EU votes until then. However, if we are counting local elections, we will have some idea.

FrancieBrady · 24-05-2019 12:33am

blanch152 wrote: »

Maybe I am missing something, or maybe Wikipedia is wrong, but......

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_European_Parliament_election_in_Ireland

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Irish_local_elections

FG got 22.28% in the 2014 European elections
FG got 24% in the 2014 local elections.

I am confused as to how you conclue that they had a very good European election whereas their local elections were a bit of a disaster. To me, neither vote was very good, but the locals were significantly better than the Euros, which is the opposite of your post.

Euros 2014: 4 seats out of 12 going into the 2014 Euro election and came out with 4 out of 11 seats.

Local elections: Its vote share dropped by more than 12 percentage points since the general election and, despite the overall increase in the number of council seats, the party lost more than 100 from its total of 335.

blanch152 · 24-05-2019 12:56am

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Euros 2014: 4 seats out of 12 going into the 2014 Euro election and came out with 4 out of 11 seats.

Local elections: Its vote share dropped by more than 12 percentage points since the general election and, despite the overall increase in the number of council seats, the party lost more than 100 from its total of 335.

To be honest, I would always look at the number of people voting for you rather than the seats won.

Any election can result in seats being won or lost, but it is the number of votes that is the longer term indicator.

As an example, I am very interested in how the Green candidates do in Dublin 15 (or Dublin West as the constituency is known). If Daniel Whooley is elected, that increases the chances of the Greens taking a seat in the Dail election.

On a bigger point, peak Sinn Fein was in 2014 in terms of people voting for them. It will be interesting to compare next week.

Faugheen · 24-05-2019 1:15am

blanch152 wrote: »

To be honest, I would always look at the number of people voting for you rather than the seats won.

Any election can result in seats being won or lost, but it is the number of votes that is the longer term indicator.

As an example, I am very interested in how the Green candidates do in Dublin 15 (or Dublin West as the constituency is known). If Daniel Whooley is elected, that increases the chances of the Greens taking a seat in the Dail election.

On a bigger point, peak Sinn Fein was in 2014 in terms of people voting for them. It will be interesting to compare next week.

Parties look at seats though. The more seats, the better chance of maintaining control of as many councils as it can and then being able to implement policies.

Vote share matters diddly squat unless it’s turning into seats.

Thrashssacre · 24-05-2019 1:45am

Re the exit polls in Holland: wouldn’t more divisive parties tend to do worse in exit polls particularly if there taken in a public place?

utmbuilder · 24-05-2019 2:14am

Do not dump lol videos here please.

eagle eye · 24-05-2019 7:36am

Are exit polls accurate these days? The pre-election polls certainly are not.

L1011 · 24-05-2019 8:01am

eagle eye wrote: »

Are exit polls accurate these days? The pre-election polls certainly are not.

Generally have a much higher confidence than pre election polls. You're asking people who actually voted for starters

Scoundrel · 24-05-2019 10:10am

Ming.1 Carthy.2 McHugh.3 Brennan.4 for me this morning left the rest blank

FreudianSlippers · 24-05-2019 10:36am

I genuinely can't fathom why people vote for Ming, is it a protest vote thing?

AndrewJRenko · 24-05-2019 10:48am

Stephen15 wrote: »

For me it will be

1. Gemma O'Doherty
2. Ben Gilroy
3. Herman Kelly

Make sure the chemtrails don't get you on your way to the polling station. Are you happy about how Hermann is being funded by UK Nazis?

friendlyfun · 24-05-2019 10:49am

I voted for Malcolm Byrne in Ireland south.

Tell me how · 24-05-2019 10:59am

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

I genuinely can't fathom why people vote for Ming, is it a protest vote thing?

I won't be voting for him myself as he is not in my region but I do think he is hard working.
I don't agree with his view of the EU being a federal project but I think he is motivated to represent his constituents as well as he can.

Danzy · 24-05-2019 11:11am

Tell me how wrote: »

I won't be voting for him myself as he is not in my region but I do think he is hard working.
I don't agree with his view of the EU being a federal project but I think he is motivated to represent his constituents as well as he can.

Is it even contentious to say the EU is a Federal project.

European Parliament Elections 2019

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