Who thinks Trump will win?

Deleted User wrote: »

Thing is, America's role in the world is not simply World Police. Getting the world back on track after covid is gonna be a collective global initiative. Trump seems like he'll have decimate the US if he gets another term. Geopolitically they're already heavily damaged.

In my lifetime America probably reached it's hegemonic zenith around the year 2000. They they let the crazies in charge of their foreign policy, since the defeat in Iraq in 2006 its foreign policy has been drifting aimlessly. Still no-one will take them on in a conventional war so they are bleeding by 1000's cuts, the military is not cut out for asymmetric warfare and a serious challenger such as China can do them significant material damage in a direct conflict having learned what their tactics and strategies and weaknesses are in the battlefield. Drones have changed battlefield tactics and the fight for Idlib (Russia & Syria versus Turkey) has not come to a conclusion yet.

As American hegemony becomes ever more expensive for them to maintain politically and economically, it makes more sense for them to pursue an "America First" policy in a multi-polar world this is more cost effective for them. Even Trumps successors will have to pursue America First and continue to decouple from China.

How the west lost

Accompanying this overwhelmingly dominant political and economic ideology was an American geopolitical vision equally grandiose in ambition and equally blind to the lessons of history. This was summed up in the memorandum on “Defence Planning Guidance 1994-1999,” drawn up in April 1992 for the Bush Senior administration by Under-Secretary of Defence Paul Wolfowitz and Lewis “Scooter” Libby, and subsequently leaked to the media. Its central message was:

“The US must show the leadership necessary to establish and protect a new order that holds the promise of convincing potential competitors that they need not aspire to a greater role or pursue a more aggressive posture to protect their legitimate interests… We must maintain the mechanism for deterring potential competitors from even aspiring to a larger regional or global role…”

source

They failed and both China and Russia have all the raw materials, energy, engineering and industrial capabilities, agriculture and populations needed to be completely independent of the United States and it's Allies.

America can stand on it's own it has the resources, Europe cannot, it is beholden to Russia and oil producing states for it's energy, hence the desperate (and ultimately doomed) push to expand energy generation with Wind Turbines and Solar panels in order to cut its dependence on foreign energy sources. This is why you see France in particular anxious to EU to shore up its interests in North and West Africa. The Chinese were expanding into North African countries like Sudan and Libya, at the time Darfur was being cleared so oil exploration could happen and the Irish army found itself in Chad on peace keeping missions, prior to the 2008 economic collapse.

kyote00 wrote: »

Don't put WWI and WWII on that list - there was very little other choice if the US and Russia didn't sacrifice so much and join those wars....

Thats leaves Vietnam and Libya to Dems and Gulfs to Reps..... i make it even steven. They would both sell their mothers for a barrel of oil or a quick buck.

Donnie on the other hand is they guy who arrives at the fight saying "hold me back" while doing nothing

Pa El left off that GOP hero, Nixon, as one of the Presidents in charge for Vietnam. Remember, he drew out the negotations post-Election 1972 in order to help his reelection bid.

His paranoia cost him his job, however.

Pa ElGrande wrote: »

Oh no you don't. The great war (aka WWI) could have ended a year earlier without the progressive Wilsons intervention "to make the world safe for democracy" and without them the unintended consequences that played out in Germany and Russia, contributing to the rise of totalitarian regimes and another world war would not have happened. Imagine a world with no Hitler, no Lenin, no Stalin, no cold war, and no nuclear weapons it would have been possible had the United States stayed out of WW1.

The Russian Bolshevik revolution had already kicked off by the time US intervened in WWI. This whole post is a massive leap of whataboutery and whatifs.

namloc1980 wrote: »

The Russian Bolshevik revolution had already kicked off by the time US intervened in WWI. This whole post is a massive leap of whataboutery and whatifs.

Check your timelines, without the loan from the Americans to stay in the war the Russians could have withdrawn been spared the fall to the Bolshevics.

When the czarist regime of Nicholas II collapsed in mid-March 1917, a Provisional Government headed by former Foreign Minister Alexander Kerensky was formed, with an intended goal of sustaining a parliamentary democracy. But confusion and low morale reigned on Russia’s battlefronts, and the Kerensky government was forced to confront an immediate fiscal crisis. Kerensky hoped to exit the war and build a stable polity, but state bankruptcy loomed.

Western powers were approached for financial support, and President Wilson sent former Secretary of State Elihu Root , then 72 years old, to Petrograd to negotiate. Root offered the Russians $325 million in war loans, equivalent to about $6.4 billion today, but only if they stayed in the war. Kerensky balked but soon relented, feeling he had no choice; the Russians took the American money and launched new offensives against the Germans in July and August of 1917.
These failed, causing Kerensly to lose credibility and support with the Russian people and army. By October, Lenin was on the doorstep to power, taking it in the November 7 revolution. Soon thereafter Lenin and Trotsky concluded a peace with Germany at Brest-Litovsk. It included the surrender of vast territories including the Baltic states to Germany. While this treaty was annulled at Versailles, it did give Lenin legitimacy for ending the war that had eluded Kerensky, as well as breathing room to begin consolidating Bolshevik power via the Russian Civil War (1917-22).

source

Pa ElGrande wrote: »

Check your timelines, without the loan from the Americans to stay in the war the Russians could have withdrawn been spared the fall to the Bolshevics.

These views are too vague to hold any weight.

If the U.S. had stayed out of the war, it seems likely there would have been some kind of negotiated settlement. Neither the Allied Powers (France, Britain, Russia, Italy, Japan, and several smaller states) nor the Central Powers (Germany, Austria‐​Hungary, the Ottoman Empire, and Bulgaria) would have gained everything they wanted from a negotiated settlement. Both sides would have complained. But a catastrophe would have been less likely after a negotiated settlement than after vindictive terms were forced on the losers.

Would you believe if someone said the following.

Hillary wouldn't have cut back on the US Pandemic Office, or removed the staff involved in engaging with China on such matters and so America would have been better prepared for the Pandemic and from January would have ramped up easily accessible testing facilities, production of masks and sanitisers and would have had a clear very widespread communication message from the CDC on all TV stations and social media which advocated for Social Distancing, Washing Hands, Wearing Masks and Working from home and that America would have done that with a high rate of compliance in March and April and ultimately the Covid Death Toll was kept under 10,000 and America didn't see anything like the long term lock downs experienced elsewhere and in fact, their pragmatism encouraged similar practices in places like the UK which was equally successful

whiskeyman wrote: »

Hope the mods don't mind a new thread, but I just want to see how many of us think Trump will beat Biden in Nov?
I think he just has so much of a populist ground swell and I wouldn't be surprised if 'external' participants get involved in the process.

Do you think he'll get reelected?
Where will that leave America?

He will win again.China is scared *****ess of him.He is really the only world leader who has the bal*s to stand up to China and put his country first.China's tendrils are everywhere now.Time to put manners on Chi Chi Ping and his ilk.

bmc58 wrote: »

He will win again.China is scared *****ess of him.He is really the only world leader who has the bal*s to stand up to China and put his country first.China's tendrils are everywhere now.Time to put manners on Chi Chi Ping and his ilk.

Yeah they are so scared of Trump that they are accelerating their developments on islands in the South China Sea and increasing their military presence there.

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/how-to-stop-china-completing-its-takeover-of-the-south-china-sea/

And he's done such a good job with putting his country first that he imposed massive tariffs that hurt US businesses and consumers while doing nothing to close the trade gap with China - a key promise from 2016. Great job in fairness by Trump :pac:

https://www.ft.com/content/081e6d25-8d67-4caa-918a-2765a66f0052
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/08/07/more-pain-than-gain-how-the-us-china-trade-war-hurt-america/#:~:text=A%202019%20report%20from%20Bloomberg,stocks%20as%20a%20result%20of

Schiff urges Trump administration to resign now...

https://thehill.com/homenews/media/517948-schiff-urges-trump-administration-members-to-resign-you-cannot-maintain-your

Is this all fake news, or are the Democrats actually a little rattled?

Silentcorner wrote: »

Pelosi again suggests Biden shouldn't participate in the debate...it's a weird way to downplay expectations or does she actually mean it?

Something about Trumps relationship with the truth.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/why-bother-pelosi-repeats-biden-should-skip-debates/ar-BB19qe5q?ocid=st

Did she ever press charges against that Salon owner that fooled her into booking a hair appointment contra to Covid restrictions embarrassing the 3rd most powerful elected person in the US?

You must be the only person in the Western world still going on about Nancy Pelosi and her haircut.

Pelosi is doing a great job of goading Trump, GOP, Fox News etc to double down on lowering expectations for Biden, while also highlighting how much Trump is likely to lie.

It is the opposite of 2016, where there was no expectations for Trump. At this point Biden just has to avoid forgetting where he is and people who listen to right wing media narrative will be shocked. It is complete stupidity from the Trump campaign, though not at all surprising.

Pa ElGrande wrote: »

Rank-and-file union members snub Biden for Trump




Voter registration (Pennsylvania)
https://twitter.com/mantlehog/status/1308147118666854406


Texas voter registration smashes record as Trump-Biden showdown looms

Republicans closing voter registration gap in Florida: report

Do you have to state which party you support when you register to vote. Or how is it known who new voters will vote for?

Manic Moran wrote: »

That's fair, but how is that any difference from the influence of other regional industry such as the auto industry in the north, the mining/steel industries in the MidWest and West, the energy industries in the NW or SE, etc, and so on?

1. The military budget is paid directly by the taxpayer, unlike energy, farming, automobiles
2. Military is basically nationwide employer including overseas territories.
3. It's so ingrained the fabric of American culture one criticizes it at your peril, especially politically.

Trump awkwardly attacking Gustavo Petro, whose name he's clearly seen for the first time on the sheet of paper in front of him. What a strange sight.