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Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

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    #9842
    Cyrus
    Registered Users Posts: 19,745 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    PropQueries wrote: »
    But is there a market? It appears to me that many developers over the past couple of years saw that Cairn Homes were asking c. €1.6 million for their terraced units in Marianella and said me too. Last time I walked down there, there were still a few empty out of the 12 units and I think they've been available for sale for about the last three years.

    only one way to find out isnt there,

    also you have to remember a small complex like this with a limited number of units (and i assume no social) is going to appeal more than a larger development like marianella which has apartments, social, renters etc etc.


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    #9843
    brisan
    Registered Users Posts: 2,242 ✭✭✭brisan


    Enderly in Killiney /Dalkeith also has had problems shifting the last of the 18 units
    At that price point buyers are scarce and can afford to be choosy


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    #9844
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Cyrus wrote: »
    only one way to find out isnt there,

    also you have to remember a small complex like this with a limited number of units (and i assume no social) is going to appeal more than a larger development like marianella which has apartments, social, renters etc etc.

    Good point on the social housing element but I think the Marianella houses weren't selling prior to this becoming common knowledge.

    Last year they were blaming Brexit. This year they're blaming covid. Maybe, just maybe the demand was never there. We're not London or New York by any stretch of the imagination.

    But, as you said, time will tell in relation to these units. But, given how much they paid per site, how much do you reckon they would have to sell them for to break even?


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    #9845
    Cyrus
    Registered Users Posts: 19,745 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    brisan wrote: »
    Enderly in Killiney /Dalkeith also has had problems shifting the last of the 18 units
    At that price point buyers are scarce and can afford to be choosy

    yes exactly, circa 10 buyers not a problem generally but once you go above that the pool is shallow and they have plenty of other options, generally if the developer is pricing is ambitious the last few units take the most time to shift.


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    #9846
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Interesting one here. The Department of Education has put plans for five new primary schools on hold as the expected housing development as had been predicted in 2018 had not taken place which now means the existing schools in the areas have sufficient capacity.

    Link to article in Irish Independent here: https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/news/plans-for-five-new-primary-schools-put-on-hold-39809142.html


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    #9847
    Cyrus
    Registered Users Posts: 19,745 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    PropQueries wrote: »
    Good point on the social housing element but I think the Marianella houses weren't selling prior to this becoming common knowledge.

    Last year they were blaming Brexit. This year they're blaming covid. Maybe, just maybe the demand was never there. We're not London or New York by any stretch of the imagination.

    But, as you said, time will tell in relation to these units. But, given how much they paid per site, how much do you reckon they would have to sell them for to break even?

    it wouldnt have needed to be common knowledge though, it was part of the planning and the first question a potential purchaser would have asked.

    also houses with apartments are always less desirable, the estates tend to have parking issues for one.

    re those units id imagine break even is over 1m probably close to 1.2m on average.


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    #9848
    Timing belt
    Registered Users Posts: 3,410 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    PropQueries wrote: »
    Interesting one here. The Department of Education has put plans for five new primary schools on hold as the expected housing development as had been predicted in 2018 had not taken place which now means the existing schools in the areas have sufficient capacity.

    Link to article in Irish Independent here: https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/news/plans-for-five-new-primary-schools-put-on-hold-39809142.html

    Actual quote from article:
    ‘The Department of Education said they were being postponed for a range of reasons, including the fact that planned housing development had not yet materialised at levels expected in 2018.’


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    #9849
    Marius34
    Registered Users Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    Timing belt wrote: »
    End of November Is my prediction for a stock market crash
    Marius34 wrote: »
    You maid a mistake by posting this.
    Because I will remind you this :-)
    Hope you will not disappear, as most guys who predicting crash with certainty disappear... :-)

    A kind reminder :)
    Down Jones is up from 28,210(21 Oct) to 29,638(today)

    Again Stock Market is not something we can predict. Although Property Market it's possible to some extent.


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    #9850
    Timing belt
    Registered Users Posts: 3,410 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    Marius34 wrote: »
    A kind reminder :)
    Down Jones is up from 28,210(21 Oct) to 29,638(today)

    Again Stock Market is not something we can predict. Although Property Market it's possible to some extent.

    I knew you would post...timing might be out a couple of weeks as expected more lockdowns state side by now. But will admit will probably finish the year on a rally now but still think that market has a V shaped recovery priced in. Also thought house prices would be down 5-10% by now. Would be interesting from your model to know the impact of the htb changes


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    #9851
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Timing belt wrote: »
    I knew you would post...timing might be out a couple of weeks as expected more lockdowns state side by now. But will admit will probably finish the year on a rally now but still think that market has a V shaped recovery priced in. Also thought house prices would be down 5-10% by now. Would be interesting from your model to know the impact of the htb changes

    out by a few weeks so when do you think the crash will happen now?


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    #9852
    Marius34
    Registered Users Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    Timing belt wrote: »
    I knew you would post...timing might be out a couple of weeks as expected more lockdowns state side by now. But will admit will probably finish the year on a rally now but still think that market has a V shaped recovery priced in. Also thought house prices would be down 5-10% by now. Would be interesting from your model to know the impact of the htb changes

    I think HTB change has direct short term impact on new builds price increase of 5k-10k. And 0-5k on second hand properties.


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    #9853
    Timing belt
    Registered Users Posts: 3,410 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    fliball123 wrote: »
    out by a few weeks so when do you think the crash will happen now?

    I thought it we would have seen a correction in the Dow by now of 10-20% but it hasn’t happened yet and normally markets rally at the end of the year so not sure when we will see it now. Probably feb when results start coming through and we see the revised year end provisions by the banks.


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    #9854
    Timing belt
    Registered Users Posts: 3,410 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    Marius34 wrote: »
    I think HTB change has direct short term impact on new builds price increase of 5k-10k. And 0-5k on second hand properties.

    That seems about right


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    #9855
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Timing belt wrote: »
    I thought it we would have seen a correction by now of 10-20% but it hasn’t happened yet and normally markets rally at the end of the year so not sure when we will see it now. Probably feb when results start coming through and we see the revised year end provisions by the banks.

    Well fair play you are one of the few who had said we would see a drop but it didnt happen and being honest I thought we would be about 5% by now as well


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    #9856
    Marcusm
    Registered Users Posts: 10,218 ✭✭✭✭Marcusm


    Cyrus wrote: »
    Let’s see if they sell but I wouldn’t be surprised.

    It’s represents a very small portion of the market. There aren’t many new builds in these areas.

    I too will be interested to see how they fare. I can see the attraction of a new build A rated house in a central location with good transport links. (Full disclosure, I live 1.5 streets away, in a late Victorian 3 storey.). However, access is via a tight unattractive lane way with an old garage (store for a nearby shop) and a terrace of 1990s news style houses designed by a blind person. The immediate kerb appeal gets a bit of a shock when you go for your first visit (not shown on pictures). Over time, I think t could be a nice little development but I would worry about the build up of cars, especially as kids become teenagers.


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    #9857
    three putt
    Registered Users Posts: 27 ✭three putt


    Cyrus wrote: »
    yes exactly, circa 10 buyers not a problem generally but once you go above that the pool is shallow and they have plenty of other options, generally if the developer is pricing is ambitious the last few units take the most time to shift.
    All the houses in the new development in Prospect Hill, Blackrock seem to have been sold (all post Covid). Prices were in the 950k - €1.1m range. Few appearing on the price register, seems like all sold at - or very close to - listing prices.


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    #9858
    Sweet.Science
    Registered Users Posts: 2,837 ✭✭✭Sweet.Science


    So another house that's been on the market for 2 months or so . Im the only bidder yet the seller won't accept

    Does't feel right to be bidding against myself. The market isn't dictating the value like the cliche its the seller

    I'll probably move on. Again


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    #9859
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Looks like Demand is outstripping supply

    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/mortgage-approvals-surged-in-october-to-record-level-1.4423808


    It also looks like we are looking to borrow more money

    https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/average-mortgage-approval-value-up-9pc-39688165.html


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    #9860
    Reversal
    Registered Users Posts: 402 ✭✭Reversal


    fliball123 wrote: »
    Looks like Demand is outstripping supply

    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/mortgage-approvals-surged-in-october-to-record-level-1.4423808


    It also looks like we are looking to borrow more money

    https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/average-mortgage-approval-value-up-9pc-39688165.html

    How does the year as a whole compare? Considering lockdown effects will have compressed mortgage approvals into the months brokers and banks are actually open.

    "mortgage approvals are down by 19 per cent in volume terms and 14 per cent in value terms in the first ten months of 2020 compared with the same period in 2019"

    So despite the spin, there are less mortgage approved buyers out there than there was in 2019.


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    #9861
    three putt
    Registered Users Posts: 27 ✭three putt


    Sweet.Science wrote: »
    So another house that's been on the market for 2 months or so . Im the only bidder yet the seller won't accept

    Does't feel right to be bidding against myself. The market isn't dictating the value like the cliche its the seller

    I'll probably move on. Again
    The seller cannot dictate prices. They can take the risk/gamble that they will find a higher bidder, but that is their risk.
    Ultimately, the market (i.e. the seller and buyer) will dictate the price.
    Seller might regret not entertaining your bid!
    And they might not.


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    #9862
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Reversal wrote: »
    How does the year as a whole compare? Considering lockdown effects will have compressed mortgage approvals into the months brokers and banks are actually open.

    "mortgage approvals are down by 19 per cent in volume terms and 14 per cent in value terms in the first ten months of 2020 compared with the same period in 2019"

    So despite the spin, there are less mortgage approved buyers out there than there was in 2019.

    I didnt spin it in anyway I am just showing a link to show that demand is ramping up - October the busiest month on record since 2011 for mortgage approvals..Year on year is not a valid comparison anymore as this year is a complete anomaly with regards to dealing with covid


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    #9863
    Cyrus
    Registered Users Posts: 19,745 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    Marcusm wrote: »
    I too will be interested to see how they fare. I can see the attraction of a new build A rated house in a central location with good transport links. (Full disclosure, I live 1.5 streets away, in a late Victorian 3 storey.). However, access is via a tight unattractive lane way with an old garage (store for a nearby shop) and a terrace of 1990s news style houses designed by a blind person. The immediate kerb appeal gets a bit of a shock when you go for your first visit (not shown on pictures). Over time, I think t could be a nice little development but I would worry about the build up of cars, especially as kids become teenagers.

    paddy mckillens son built 4 houses in blackrock against a similar backdrop, and it put me right off them if im honest!


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    #9864
    Hubertj
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    Reversal wrote: »
    How does the year as a whole compare? Considering lockdown effects will have compressed mortgage approvals into the months brokers and banks are actually open.

    "mortgage approvals are down by 19 per cent in volume terms and 14 per cent in value terms in the first ten months of 2020 compared with the same period in 2019"

    So despite the spin, there are less mortgage approved buyers out there than there was in 2019.

    Considering what has happened this year I thought there would be been a far bigger decline.
    Also whether desire gets mortgage approved or not the ability to purchase depends on availability and affordability. How many approved will be able to buy is the real measure I think


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    #9865
    Cyrus
    Registered Users Posts: 19,745 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    three putt wrote: »
    All the houses in the new development in Prospect Hill, Blackrock seem to have been sold (all post Covid). Prices were in the 950k - €1.1m range. Few appearing on the price register, seems like all sold at - or very close to - listing prices.

    do you know how many units they had?

    nice development that.

    Enderely in dalkey was a little different in that the prices ranged from 2.5m to 1m so some big expensive ones to offload.


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    #9866
    CorkRed93
    Registered Users Posts: 3,459 ✭✭✭CorkRed93


    https://twitter.com/paulodonoghue93/status/1333717399087017986

    Dublin rental market still going strong at least


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    #9867
    nerrad01
    Registered Users Posts: 237 ✭✭nerrad01


    CorkRed93 wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/paulodonoghue93/status/1333717399087017986

    Dublin rental market still going strong at least

    I dont even know where to begin with that, the worst thing is it says let agreed :eek:


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    #9868
    three putt
    Registered Users Posts: 27 ✭three putt


    Cyrus wrote: »
    do you know how many units they had?

    nice development that.

    Enderely in dalkey was a little different in that the prices ranged from 2.5m to 1m so some big expensive ones to offload.
    7 houses in total, all are sold post Covid. Few of them on the property price register already.
    Yeah, smashing development - as new build go, one of the nicer ones, both in terms of location and finish.
    Instead of big concrete apartment blocks, they have Prospect House - a protected structure, and a beautiful building - converted into apartments.


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    #9869
    Villa05
    Registered Users Posts: 4,513 ✭✭✭Villa05


    CorkRed93 wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/paulodonoghue93/status/1333717399087017986

    Dublin rental market still going strong at least


    Would there be fire safety issues with having a bed in a kitchen. Is this legal?
    The letting agency proudly display PSR Licence number


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    #9870
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 18,749 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    CorkRed93 wrote: »

    Dublin rental market still going strong at least

    Ah it's not though!
    There are so many places just empty all year. I don't know but it must not matter to some people / companies that they are empty.


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    #9871
    Cyrus
    Registered Users Posts: 19,745 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    three putt wrote: »
    7 houses in total, all are sold post Covid. Few of them on the property price register already.
    Yeah, smashing development - as new build go, one of the nicer ones, both in terms of location and finish.
    Instead of big concrete apartment blocks, they have Prospect House - a protected structure, and a beautiful building - converted into apartments.

    yes i popped in for a nosey one day, its a similar scheme to the neptune house on then but with less houses and imo more attractive.

    great location too.


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