Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

cubatahavana

CorkRed93 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/paulodonoghue93/status/1333717399087017986

Dublin rental market still going strong at least

That toilet roll gonna get soggy

Pete123456

cubatahavana wrote: »

That toilet roll gonna get soggy

Ad is gone now it seems...

PropQueries

Looks like the state is still funding the development of office blocks and high-end apartments in Dublin and these are just in the past month. Given that Google recently pulled out of the sorting office and the OPW recently stated that they were examining all their office leases expiring over the next 5 years, it hardly appears to be worthwhile for the state to be still funding such developments. The same would go for the state funding more high-end apartments given how many are lying empty across the city IMO

According to the Irish Times:

"Developer Pat Crean’s Marlet Property Group has secured its first financing facility with State-backed lender Activate Capital. The loan for €101 million will be used by Marlet to fund the construction of its Shipping Office scheme on Sir John Rogerson’s Quay in Dublin’s south docklands. The latest deal comes just three weeks after the developer secured €74 million from another State-backed entity, Home Building Finance Ireland, to fund the construction of the 253 apartments it has planned for Green Acre Grange at Dundrum, south Dublin."

Link to article in the Irish Times here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/marlet-secures-101m-from-state-backed-lender-for-dublin-docklands-offices-1.4414050

This is way too familiar to the boom years where the state lost untold millions in high profile property development speculation e.g. the docklands authority etc.

Villa05

The Irish government mantra

Sell low buy high

Funded from your taxes


Nuts to be investing in commercial Real Estate in the current environment

The same crowd are funding development in montrose, is that the rte land

PropQueries

Villa05 wrote: »

The Irish government mantra

Sell low buy high

Funded from your taxes


Nuts to be investing in commercial Real Estate in the current environment

The same crowd are funding development in montrose, is that the rte land

According to Activate Capital's website, they did provide €50 million to Cairn Homes to buy that site off RTE. The DCC then bought 61 of those apartments for €30 million before a sod was turned. Couldn't make it up.

Basically, in many cases, the taxpayer appears to be funding the purchase of the sites, then probably helps fund the development costs and then buys or leases the completed units. And they say the state can't manage the building of homes at scale.

According to Activate Capital's website "Activate Capital was founded in 2015 to address the shortage of debt capital available for property development in the Irish market. Benefitting from strong financial backing from the Ireland Strategic Investment Fund ("ISIF") and KKR, to date we have committed more than €950m across 58 sites with capacity to deliver over 14,500 homes. We take pride in this achievement."

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

According to Activate Capital's website, they did provide €50 million to Cairn Homes to buy that site off RTE. The DCC then bought 61 of those apartments for €30 million before a sod was turned. Couldn't make it up.

Basically, in many cases, the taxpayer appears to be funding the purchase of the sites, then probably helps fund the development costs and then buys or leases the completed units. And they say the state can't manage the building of homes at scale.

According to Activate Capital's website "Activate Capital was founded in 2015 to address the shortage of debt capital available for property development in the Irish market. Benefitting from strong financial backing from the Ireland Strategic Investment Fund ("ISIF") and KKR, to date we have committed more than €950m across 58 sites with capacity to deliver over 14,500 homes. We take pride in this achievement."

lending to property and buying property isnt the same as physically building property, what about the above leads you to think the state can manage building homes at scale?

and one assumes money lent will be repaid with interest.

Smouse156

three putt wrote: »

All the houses in the new development in Prospect Hill, Blackrock seem to have been sold (all post Covid). Prices were in the 950k - €1.1m range. Few appearing on the price register, seems like all sold at - or very close to - listing prices.

If they are all “gone” as the agent claims yet haven’t appeared on the PPR then they are only reserved (the ones not on PPR). Reserved means a €10k fully refundable booking deposit which is basically an expression of interest. Could be dependent on their own houses selling first which is often the case. Many will come back on the market. My friend reserved a house in July and isn’t signing contracts till Jan.

Cyrus

Smouse156 wrote: »

If they are all “gone” as the agent claims yet haven’t appeared on the PPR then they are only reserved

this a simplistic interpretation, it can take some time from a sale closing to it appearing on the PPR.

brisan

Cyrus wrote: »

this a simplistic interpretation, it can take some time from a sale closing to it appearing on the PPR.

Is there a legal requirement on the time given to register a sale on the PPR ?

Hulk Hands

Hubertj wrote: »

If you’re looking to randomers on boards for advice on making the biggest purchase if your life then don’t buy. This thread is nearly as bad as some of the stuff on Covid. Mad stuff altogether.

And yet you've 887 posts in these Accommodation threads since April. If they're so full of muppets, as you say repeatedly, why do you check back in multiple times every day?

Cyrus

brisan wrote: »

Is there a legal requirement on the time given to register a sale on the PPR ?

yes, its linked to the stamp duty return so whatever the time frame around that is, i think its 4 weeks.

the Residential Property Price Register is produced by the Property Services Regulatory Authority (PSRA) pursuant to section 86 of the Property Services (Regulation) Act 2011. It includes Date of Sale, Price and Address of all residential properties purchased in Ireland since the 1st January 2010, as declared to the Revenue Commissioners for stamp duty purposes.

so 4 weeks after the whole sale procedure closes, could be 4 months after sale agreed at that rate.

JimmyVik

Cyrus wrote: »

yes, its linked to the stamp duty return so whatever the time frame around that is, i think its 4 weeks.

the Residential Property Price Register is produced by the Property Services Regulatory Authority (PSRA) pursuant to section 86 of the Property Services (Regulation) Act 2011. It includes Date of Sale, Price and Address of all residential properties purchased in Ireland since the 1st January 2010, as declared to the Revenue Commissioners for stamp duty purposes.

so 4 weeks after the whole sale procedure closes, could be 4 months after sale agreed at that rate.

Someone bought the house next door to my parents over a year ago now.
Of course we are dying to see what it was bought for, but it still isnt on the property price register, over a year later. Beginning to wonder if it will ever appear .

Cyrus

JimmyVik wrote: »

Someone bought the house next door to my parents over a year ago now.
Of course we are dying to see what it was bought for, but it still isnt on the property price register, over a year later. Beginning to wonder if it will ever appear .

check variants of spelling, adress in irish, etc etc,

JimmyVik

Cyrus wrote: »

check variants of spelling, adress in irish, etc etc,

We have gone through everything in the county, such are the nosy bunch we are

Cyrus

JimmyVik wrote: »

We have gone through everything in the county, such are the nosy bunch we are

thats odd then i must say, assume they have moved in so you would assume the sale has closed.

Smouse156

Cyrus wrote: »

this a simplistic interpretation, it can take some time from a sale closing to it appearing on the PPR.

Simplistic yes but it’s all the data one can believe. Can’t believe the EA bull**** “buy now or gone tomorrow”. Sure I had an EA tell me all the houses were “gone” in Daneswell Place only for 4 of them to reappear. Looking at PPR, there is still 11 unsold, 9 of these are “gone”.

Sesame

Cyrus wrote: »

thats odd then i must say, assume they have moved in so you would assume the sale has closed.

County wrong too, I noticed. If you enter Waterford in to the address and search by Cork, there are results for this year.
I'd leave out county and search by variations on the address.

Cyrus

Smouse156 wrote: »

Simplistic yes but it’s all the data one can believe. Can’t believe the EA bull**** “buy now or gone tomorrow”. Sure I had an EA tell me all the houses were “gone” in Daneswell Place only for 4 of them to reappear. Looking at PPR, there is still 11 unsold, 9 of these are “gone”.

they may or may not be unsold, they could conceivably be sold or at least have contracts signed and not be on the PPR either.

JimmyVik

Cyrus wrote: »

thats odd then i must say, assume they have moved in so you would assume the sale has closed.

For sale sign went up. Sale agree sign went up.
And then they moved in over a year ago, so we've been having a nose ever since.

Timing belt

Cyrus wrote: »

lending to property and buying property isnt the same as physically building property, what about the above leads you to think the state can manage building homes at scale?

and one assumes money lent will be repaid with interest.

Unfortunately it doesn’t look like the state can build houses. You just need to look at the social housing than went up in west Dublin a couple of years ago and the general acceptance of paying protection money to gangsters. Unfortunately when the state build it is seen as a gravy train with everyone looking for their piece of pie.

Bass Reeves

Mortgage approvals are streaking ahead. For all the talk and posting that banks would stop lending or reduce approval numbers it seems this is not happening. The mortgage values are about 10k ahead of similar mortgage rates last year. Mortgages numbers are about 35 percent ahead of last year. Hard to see prices falling in the short term and would indicate that supply will remain an issue.

https://www.bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/BPFI-Mortgage-Approvals-Report-October-2020.pdf

woejus

JimmyVik wrote: »

For sale sign went up. Sale agree sign went up.
And then they moved in over a year ago, so we've been having a nose ever since.

Check if the registered title changed on the folio. It may give you the actual property name, which then should be on the price registry. You may need to pay €5 for your trouble, seems like it might be worth it to you :pac:

https://www.landdirect.ie/

PropQueries

According to the Irish Times today AIB will be vacating 3 of its 6 head office locations in Dublin as the leases expire:

"AIB earlier this week completed the exit from its former headquarters at Bankcentre, Ballsbridge and will leave adjacent premises at Hume House on 31 December. It is planning to vacate a further three of its six remaining Dublin head office locations as leases come up for renewal over the next few years.

Due to service overlaps in three urban areas, the bank will merge a small number of branches, all in close proximity to one another in Dublin, Cork and Galway in the first half of next year. In Dublin, AIB’s Westmoreland Street operations will move to its Dame Street branch; the Crumlin Cross branch to Crumlin Road and 52 Baggot Street to 1-4 Baggot Street. Eyre Square will move to Lynch’s Castle in Galway; and Patrick Street branch to 66, South Mall, Cork."

This follows a report last month that PTSB will surrender the lease on its Park Place offices when it expires in April 2021. Earlier this year, BOI said it would be looking at exiting its lease at the Burlington Plaza 2 premises, which had about 700 people working there but I think Amazon was looking at leasing that space.

Link to the Irish Times article on AIB leases here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/aib-plans-further-150m-cost-cuts-to-hit-delayed-financial-target-1.4425366

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

According to the Irish Times today AIB will be vacating 3 of its 6 head office locations in Dublin as the leases expire:

"AIB earlier this week completed the exit from its former headquarters at Bankcentre, Ballsbridge and will leave adjacent premises at Hume House on 31 December. It is planning to vacate a further three of its six remaining Dublin head office locations as leases come up for renewal over the next few years.

honestly, do you think this is covid related, or new news?

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

honestly, do you think this is covid related, or new news?

I thought this was a Irish Property Market thread and not a covid thread. And, yes, to me, AIB "planning to vacate a further three of its six remaining Dublin head office locations" is new news to me.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

I thought this was a Irish Property Market thread and not a covid thread. And, yes, to me, AIB "planning to vacate a further three of its six remaining Dublin head office locations" is new news to me.

sorry you were the one that constantly introduced the impact of covid and wfh to the thread.

and its not new news.

fliball123

so it looks like the UK have already approved the Pfizer vaccine so much for it being ages away. Be interesting to see how they roll it out

Stark

I hope they roll out in Northern Ireland at the same rate as the rest of the UK. Will probably cut down the number of imported infections we get here signficantly.

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

sorry you were the one that constantly introduced the impact of covid and wfh to the thread.

and its not new news.

But, I didn't equate AIB planning to vacate a further three of its six remaining Dublin head office locations to covid or WFH.

But, yes, Covid and WFH have accelerated trends that are impacting the property market that might have taken up to 10 years beforehand into a few short months.

It accelerated the move into shopping online. Once people start shopping online, they will continue to use it for many purchases going forward. So that impacts on the demand for retail property space going forward.

It accelerated the trend towards WFH. That impacts on both the retail property space i.e. less footfall and the demand for office property space going forward e.g. the OPW recently stated that they are actively looking at not renewing leases expiring over the next 5 years as they move to 20% WFH. So that impacts on the demand for commercial office property space going forward.

Another factor mentioned by David McWilliams last week was that as companies have become used to zooming etc. there may be less business travel into the city as more meetings are conducted online. In his article, he stated that a lot of the pub, restaurant and hotel business during midweek in Dublin is due to this market. He also said multinationals may use zooming as a way to meet to climate targets etc. i.e. less business travel equals less spending in retail, pubs, restaurants, hotels which means lower demand which means much lower rents which means much lower property values in this space if more of this space is even needed etc.

If we need less office, hotel, retail, restaurant space etc., we will also need less construction workers to build/refurbish this space going forward so that also impacts on the demand for housing in the city i.e. less retail, pub, restaurant, hotel and construction workers means less demand for housing in the city as it definitely means less net inward migration of these type of workers into the city going forward.

Which, to me, begs the question. We had c. 150,000 construction jobs back in January this year. In 2007, we had c. 270,000. Did multinational jobs replace all these jobs to add to housing demand?

c. 2.24 million persons were recorded as employed in Ireland in the fourth quarter of 2007. c. 2.36 million were employed in Ireland at the end of 2019. How much of this increase in employment in Ireland over the past few years was down to the state? Can they afford to keep this number employed? Can they afford to keep paying them the salaries they're accustomed to?

Especially, if the new OECD tax reforms etc. reduce the amount of corporation taxes we collect. I won't mention the chatter about interest rates rising much sooner than many had predicted in today's Bloomberg where they stated "Investors are mapping out the impact of rising rates on markets from stocks to corporate bonds."

To me the figures for current and future housing demand or at the very least, the figures for the number of people who have jobs which pay enough to meet anywhere near the current average asking prices don't stack up which means the prices are heading in one direction IMO

L1011

Stark wrote: »

I hope they roll out in Northern Ireland at the same rate as the rest of the UK. Will probably cut down the number of imported infections we get here signficantly.

NI to get 12,000 doses before Christmas.

The UK-wide firing order system is not quite what I expected but sensible enough - first are care home residents and staff; then health care workers and the >80s and further age and medical risk related stages.

I expected some targeting for industrial and retail workers.