Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Smouse156

Cyrus wrote: »

Spoken as someone who obviously hasn’t experienced working with staff in countries like India and Poland when work has been moved their .

They won’t overtake us this generation, maybe next or the one after that but they are nowhere near at the moment in terms of capabilities, management skills etc

Having worked in Dubai for three years, I second that. No way they’re shipping them to cheaper locations. Plus it’s not like they can fire & rehire 8000 staff easily.

It’s blatantly stupid to think companies that are here for tax reasons alone. Unless they’re shells. Google don’t hire thousands of workers for a shell company

AssetBacked2

https://youtu.be/bnkwBjRCsAw

Daft made a video promoting co-living. And people think they don't have skin in the game when preparing their reports!

Graham

AssetBacked2 wrote: »

https://youtu.be/bnkwBjRCsAw

Daft made a video promoting co-living. And people think they don't have skin in the game when preparing their reports!

The daft report has been influenced as demonstrated by what in that video?

PropQueries

AssetBacked2 wrote: »

https://youtu.be/bnkwBjRCsAw

Daft made a video promoting co-living. And people think they don't have skin in the game when preparing their reports!

Interesting video. I like the way she referenced a daft.ie report suggesting we need 80,000 new rental units to meet the shortfall. So that’s the equivalent of 10 new Googles coming to Dublin...

Possible but highly improbable given that many of the units in the existing build to rent developments are and have been vacant even before COVID-19 and most rely on HAP etc. to fill their spaces and to make their money at the moment.

random_banter

Viewed a property yesterday which had asking at the top end of our budget. First day of viewing. Was a great fit for us. But needed lots and lots of work.

We were the second viewers. EA informed us that asking had already been offered from the first viewers. According to the EA, it’ll likely pull in between 50-90k over the asking and all the properties in the area had been the same in the last number of months.

We basically didn’t even have a chance to bid as we know it’ll be priced out of our budget right away (probably by the end of yesterday, haven’t gone back to check).

There is an air of desperation in the South Dublin market at the moment, people are throwing money at properties that need huge amounts of work and would never be worth what you have to put in. Supply is awful and people seem desperate to get a home.

Can’t refer to other parts of Dublin as its South that I’ve been looking at for the guts of 14 months now. We’ve chosen this area for family and work reasons, if they didn’t exist we would be looking outside Dublin. I just don’t see how this market situation ends up resolving.

combat14

random_banter wrote: »

Viewed a property yesterday which had asking at the top end of our budget. First day of viewing. Was a great fit for us. But needed lots and lots of work.

We were the second viewers. EA informed us that asking had already been offered from the first viewers. According to the EA, it’ll likely pull in between 50-90k over the asking and all the properties in the area had been the same in the last number of months.

We basically didn’t even have a chance to bid as we know it’ll be priced out of our budget right away (probably by the end of yesterday, haven’t gone back to check).

There is an air of desperation in the South Dublin market at the moment, people are throwing money at properties that need huge amounts of work and would never be worth what you have to put in. Supply is awful and people seem desperate to get a home.

Can’t refer to other parts of Dublin as its South that I’ve been looking at for the guts of 14 months now. We’ve chosen this area for family and work reasons, if they didn’t exist we would be looking outside Dublin. I just don’t see how this market situation ends up resolving.

dont sound mean to sound blunt but if properties are already at the top of peoples budgets and still require a lot of work its time to walk away

family and work are fine reasons to buy in an area but not enough .. there is always living outside of dublin and WFH .. can see family weekends and have money to actually live then

at least the central bank has held firm and wont be bullied into lending more than people can afford

time to end this over priced property madness in this country

PropQueries

random_banter wrote: »

Viewed a property yesterday which had asking at the top end of our budget. First day of viewing. Was a great fit for us. But needed lots and lots of work.

We were the second viewers. EA informed us that asking had already been offered from the first viewers. According to the EA, it’ll likely pull in between 50-90k over the asking and all the properties in the area had been the same in the last number of months.

We basically didn’t even have a chance to bid as we know it’ll be priced out of our budget right away (probably by the end of yesterday, haven’t gone back to check).

There is an air of desperation in the South Dublin market at the moment, people are throwing money at properties that need huge amounts of work and would never be worth what you have to put in. Supply is awful and people seem desperate to get a home.

Can’t refer to other parts of Dublin as its South that I’ve been looking at for the guts of 14 months now. We’ve chosen this area for family and work reasons, if they didn’t exist we would be looking outside Dublin. I just don’t see how this market situation ends up resolving.

If you’re willing to pay asking, I would call the EA and say you will pay asking but no more and you need the answer by Friday or you will look elsewhere. Unless you’re incredibly unlucky and someone else falls for his selling technique, he’ll ring and offer it to you. The demand isn’t there so I wouldn’t fall for the sales tactic.

You didn’t mention the asking price or where the property is, but if you’re willing to pay asking, you should also expect the value to fall by c. 50% over the next two years and by much more over the lifetime of your mortgage if your getting one IMO

This should become clear over the next 6 months as the fog of COVID goes away. Demand wasn’t there pre-COVID and COVID has proved a godsend to the EAs covering this part up.

But if you need to buy, you need to buy.

The_Conductor

AssetBacked2 wrote: »

https://youtu.be/bnkwBjRCsAw

Daft made a video promoting co-living. And people think they don't have skin in the game when preparing their reports!

The video was interesting. When interviewed- both the Dunlaoghaire and the Londoners- expressed an expectation that it would be useful for young professionals who expect to save money while becoming 'members' of their community- and the other selling point, you don't have to go out and interact with the community- you can just stay there the whole time, everything is in the building.

The Dunlaoghaire people all voiced the opinion that it was simply too expensive- while we have no idea how much the 'Gravity' members were paying- the expectation is that they were saving significant amounts on renting privately.

Cost- seems to be a main selling point- and on this salient point- Dunlaoghaire is simply pricing itself out of the market- why hand over 1,300 a month- when you can rent a small 1 bed apartment for the same price, and not have to sign up to all manner of rules, including but not limited to, lack of the normal protections afforded to a tenant under the Residential Tenancies Act (which DAFT managed to not mention at all).

The London co-living arrangement they visited is a converted Victorian townhouse, managed by Gravity with 15 'members' and the rooms are approx. twice the size of those in the Dunlaoghaire development.

The London example (which we weren't told the price of) is not comparable with the Irish development that they are pushing- on several different grounds- not least of which is the proposed price of the Dun Laoghaire setup.

PropQueries

The_Conductor wrote: »

The video was interesting. When interviewed- both the Dunlaoghaire and the Londoners- expressed an expectation that it would be useful for young professionals who expect to save money while becoming 'members' of their community- and the other selling point, you don't have to go out and interact with the community- you can just stay there the whole time, everything is in the building.

The Dunlaoghaire people all voiced the opinion that it was simply too expensive- while we have no idea how much the 'Gravity' members were paying- the expectation is that they were saving significant amounts on renting privately.

Cost- seems to be a main selling point- and on this salient point- Dunlaoghaire is simply pricing itself out of the market- why hand over 1,300 a month- when you can rent a small 1 bed apartment for the same price, and not have to sign up to all manner of rules, including but not limited to, lack of the normal protections afforded to a tenant under the Residential Tenancies Act (which DAFT managed to not mention at all).

The London co-living arrangement they visited is a converted Victorian townhouse, managed by Gravity with 15 'members' and the rooms are approx. twice the size of those in the Dunlaoghaire development.

The London example (which we weren't told the price of) is not comparable with the Irish development that they are pushing- on several different grounds- not least of which is the proposed price of the Dun Laoghaire setup.

According to their website, the Finsbury Park units work out at c. €1,100 per month and are nearly half the distance to central London as dun laoghaire is to Dublin.

So I think the dun laoghaire proposed prices are stretching the bounds of realistic achievable prices. Makes me think these co-living developments are cover for changing to alternative uses once complete.

combat14

PropQueries wrote: »

If you’re willing to pay asking, I would call the EA and say you will pay asking but no more and you need the answer by Friday or you will look elsewhere. Unless you’re incredibly unlucky and someone else falls for his selling technique, he’ll ring and offer it to you. The demand isn’t there so I wouldn’t fall for the sales tactic.

You didn’t mention the asking price or where the property is, but if you’re willing to pay asking, you should also expect the value to fall by c. 50% over the next two years and by much more over the lifetime of your mortgage if your getting one IMO

This should become clear over the next 6 months as the fog of COVID goes away. Demand wasn’t there pre-COVID and COVID has proved a godsend to the EAs covering this part up.

But if you need to buy, you need to buy.

i still wouldnt bother property is at top of his budget and still has to pack a whack of money to do it up - whats the point.. just wait

Hubertj

Developers will be paying people to take houses off them in the next few months. But it will get worse.
The UK will invade Ireland following Brexit for 2 reasons - EU access and also use Munster as a prison. Irish people will be enslave to provide cheap labour building chlorinated chicken processing plants.
In my opinion..... which is about as plausible as some of the others provided the last while.

PropQueries

Hubertj wrote: »

Developers will be paying people to take houses off them in the next few months. But it will get worse.
The UK will invade Ireland following Brexit for 2 reasons - EU access and also use Munster as a prison. Irish people will be enslave to provide cheap labour building chlorinated chicken processing plants.
In my opinion..... which is about as plausible as some of the others provided the last while.

You may not be far off the mark there.

Didn’t the banks basically pay the vulture funds to take their property loans off them after the last bust.

They sold their loans at a significant discount which is the equivalent of paying the vulture funds to take them off their hands?

cubatahavana

PropQueries wrote: »

You may not be far off the mark there.

Didn’t the banks basically pay the vulture funds to take their property loans off them after the last bust.

They sold their loans at a significant discount which is the equivalent of paying the vulture funds to take them off their hands?

I didn’t think I would’ve ever said this... I miss neutral guy

Marius34

random_banter wrote: »

Viewed a property yesterday which had asking at the top end of our budget. First day of viewing. Was a great fit for us. But needed lots and lots of work.

We were the second viewers. EA informed us that asking had already been offered from the first viewers. According to the EA, it’ll likely pull in between 50-90k over the asking and all the properties in the area had been the same in the last number of months.

We basically didn’t even have a chance to bid as we know it’ll be priced out of our budget right away (probably by the end of yesterday, haven’t gone back to check).

There is an air of desperation in the South Dublin market at the moment, people are throwing money at properties that need huge amounts of work and would never be worth what you have to put in. Supply is awful and people seem desperate to get a home.

Can’t refer to other parts of Dublin as its South that I’ve been looking at for the guts of 14 months now. We’ve chosen this area for family and work reasons, if they didn’t exist we would be looking outside Dublin. I just don’t see how this market situation ends up resolving.

As you can not afford the property you want, and don't expect housing market to resolve (neither me). Depending on your circumstances. In case you currently renting, would you be able to afford similar property as of your rental, or slightly smaller/a bit further from city center? If so, maybe it's worth to look at the "starter" home.

Villa05

PropQueries wrote:

So I think the dun laoghaire proposed prices are stretching the bounds of realistic achievable prices. Makes me think these co-living developments are cover for changing to alternative uses once complete.

Can they be used as air bnb

Hubertj wrote:

The UK will invade Ireland following Brexit for 2 reasons - EU access and also use Munster as a prison. Irish people will be enslave to provide cheap.

No need for any country to invade Ireland and risk injury to their own people when our Government will hand over the wealth of the nation in rents tied to long term leases providing tax free income.

They will also guarantee foreign bank loans, should those loans fail. The Irish taxpayer is good for that one

We are safe from invasion, credit to Governments security policy ;-)

dundrum23

I have been bidding on houses in South Dublin and Greystones for the last 4 months and prices are mental high. On two occasions, it went to best and final offer, which means you have a deadline to put in your highest offer, not knowing how many other bidders there are or what they’ll go to. It was awful. Lost both times, second time I was more invested and was second highest of five parties... it still stings me. With the Government propping up the economy with printed money, free money with the PUP to jobless and the €30,000 free for first time buyers of new houses AND with interest rates so low, but unemployment quite high, but techie And pharma jobs paying high and secure it looks like we will not have a Big crash. Not for a few years anyway. However there will probably be a correction in 2021, after prices plateau. For us poor house hunters, maybe we have to just buy when we can If the area is right and hold onto the house long term, as long term prices generally go up slowly even with boom and bust factored into it.

PropQueries

Villa05 wrote: »

Can they be used as Airbnb-

I don’t think so without a change of planning permission. Same applies to all the AirBnb units that people think will come back into use once tourism returns.

Most of them can’t (from a legal standpoint), so most will re-enter the long term rental market or be sold which is a significant source of additional supply (c.5,000 in Dublin) coming into the market next year that people don’t appear to be factoring in properly just yet IMO

PropQueries

dundrum23 wrote: »

I have been bidding on houses in South Dublin and Greystones for the last 4 months and prices are mental high. On two occasions, it went to best and final offer, which means you have a deadline to put in your highest offer, not knowing how many other bidders there are or what they’ll go to. It was awful. Lost both times, second time I was more invested and was second highest of five parties... it still stings me. With the Government propping up the economy with printed money, free money with the PUP to jobless and the €30,000 free for first time buyers of new houses AND with interest rates so low, but unemployment quite high, but techie And pharma jobs paying high and secure it looks like we will not have a Big crash. Not for a few years anyway. However there will probably be a correction in 2021, after prices plateau. For us poor house hunters, maybe we have to just buy when we can If the area is right and hold onto the house long term, as long term prices generally go up slowly even with boom and bust factored into it.

How would pharma jobs impact the greystones market? Plus the IDA states that the average salary of their client companies is c. €60k per year.

There’s less than 250k employed in multinationals in Ireland and most would already be homeowners from the 1990’s, 2000’s or would have purchased one the c.100,000 new homes built over the past 10 years.

Most of them are also already homeowners or renting good quality accommodation so I don’t see them having as such a big impact on the South Dublin/ Greystones market as many believe IMO

Farrell D

Hi am I being realistic in thinking I will have enough 2 years is enough time to save for a mortgage?
Myself and parnter are putting away between 2 - 2,400 a month between us for the last few months.

We wont be in bidding wars to get a house or need to spend 400k or more to buy a house as we are building.

Electrical work will be done by myself, plumbing and foundation will be done by family members and friends.

Reins

PropQueries wrote: »

If you’re willing to pay asking, I would call the EA and say you will pay asking but no more and you need the answer by Friday or you will look elsewhere. Unless you’re incredibly unlucky and someone else falls for his selling technique, he’ll ring and offer it to you. The demand isn’t there so I wouldn’t fall for the sales tactic.

You didn’t mention the asking price or where the property is, but if you’re willing to pay asking, you should also expect the value to fall by c. 50% over the next two years and by much more over the lifetime of your mortgage if your getting one IMO

This should become clear over the next 6 months as the fog of COVID goes away. Demand wasn’t there pre-COVID and COVID has proved a godsend to the EAs covering this part up.

But if you need to buy, you need to buy.

Props, you get slated on here a lot. I find some of them quite nasty but despite that you never counter act and usually come back with a I do admire your resolve.

Howevers,stating that within 2 years property will be down by 50% is leaving yourself wide open to be ridiculed here.

It didn't even happen that fast in the last financial crash.

Villa05

PropQueries wrote:

I don’t think so without a change of planning permission. Same applies to all the AirBnb units that people think will come back into use once tourism returns.[/

Most of them can’t (from a legal standpoint), so most will re-enter the long term rental market or be sold which is a significant source of additional supply (c.5,000 in Dublin) coming into the market next year that people don’t appear to be factoring in properly just yet IMO

There has been incredible tolerance with regard to property owners breaching this specific planning aspect.

Do you think this tolerance is finished. I'm not so sure, but I'd imagine revenue would have some interesting data after the pandemic, will be interesting to see if action is taken.

PropQueries

Reins wrote: »

Props, you get slated on here a lot. I find some of them quite nasty but despite that you never counter act and usually come back with a I do admire your resolve.

Howevers,stating that within 2 years property will be down by 50% is leaving yourself wide open to be ridiculed here.

It didn't even happen that fast in the last financial crash.

Firstly, thanks for the kind remarks. Much appreciated as I don’t receive them much.

Secondly. I’m actually quite serious on the level of drops coming and the speed. While it didn’t happen that fast last time, I believe the major difference this time is that the property market is now effectively controlled by foreign entities who have no real affection for the country outside of realising the most profit at the lowest cost. Nothing wrong with that IMO.

I believe this was proven recently when COVID hit and Blackstone relinquished control of he Blanchardstown Shopping Centre pretty much immediately when they believed there was no further gain to had.

Most of the vulture funds who purchased that €200 billion in business and property loans between 2012 and 2016 bought them for, in many cases, cents on the euro. In many cases, they can now offload the properties they control for as little as 25% of current market prices and still walk away with double their initial investment.

It all depends on how fast they want/need to exit that will decide on how much they sell them for and how fast IMO

PropQueries

Villa05 wrote: »

There has been incredible tolerance with regard to property owners breaching this specific planning aspect.

Do you think this tolerance is finished. I'm not so sure, but I'd imagine revenue would have some interesting data after the pandemic, will be interesting to see if action is taken.

I think people forget that DCC only started beefing up the department to deal with this issue just before COVID hit. They’re now ready to go when tourism does return.

That, in addition to AirBnB now passing on all details of their clients to the Revenue should ensure that compliance will be high once the tourism market returns IMO

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

If you’re willing to pay asking, I would call the EA and say you will pay asking but no more and you need the answer by Friday or you will look elsewhere. Unless you’re incredibly unlucky and someone else falls for his selling technique, he’ll ring and offer it to you. The demand isn’t there so I wouldn’t fall for the sales tactic.

You didn’t mention the asking price or where the property is, but if you’re willing to pay asking, you should also expect the value to fall by c. 50% over the next two years and by much more over the lifetime of your mortgage if your getting one IMO

This should become clear over the next 6 months as the fog of COVID goes away. Demand wasn’t there pre-COVID and COVID has proved a godsend to the EAs covering this part up.

But if you need to buy, you need to buy.

Oh My God please anyone buying or selling please do not take this moron's advice. Prop has been outed as an absolute LIAR on this site time and again Prop give you opinion but do not tell anyone how to live their life. Offer the asking and say they have till Friday haha and they are going to drop by 50% in the next 2 years you have been saying that since the start of the year.

dundrum23

PropQueries wrote: »

How would pharma jobs impact the greystones market? Plus the IDA states that the average salary of their client companies is c. €60k per year.

There’s less than 250k employed in multinationals in Ireland and most would already be homeowners from the 1990’s, 2000’s or would have purchased one the c.100,000 new homes built over the past 10 years.

Most of them are also already homeowners or renting good quality accommodation so I don’t see them having as such a big impact on the South Dublin/ Greystones market as many believe IMO

I’m talking about people with pharma and techie jobs being safe from unemployment and getting lots of money from banks....otherwise how are young couples bidding so high in these bidding wars I’ve experienced? (I’ve seen the competition at viewings and they are young).
I’m talking about South Dublin and Greystones having huge demand and low supply of housing, driving prices way up. Whoever it is, my point is that there is somehow a lot of money out there making it so hard for house hunters like me.

dundrum23

dundrum23 wrote: »

I’m talking about people with pharma and techie jobs being safe from unemployment and getting lots of money from banks....otherwise how are young couples bidding so high in these bidding wars I’ve experienced? (I’ve seen the competition at viewings and they are young).
I’m talking about South Dublin and Greystones having huge demand and low supply of housing, driving prices way up. Whoever it is, my point is that there is somehow a lot of money out there making it so hard for house hunters like me.

I’m simply trying to figure out when will be a good time to get a house. You’re saying 50% price reduction in a short time. The signs are not pointing to that. There’s too much support for the housing market here going against that happening, added to the supply/demand issue. No big crash here 2021. Anyway they say “it’s not timing the market, it’s time in the market that counts”. So maybe it’s wise to just get a house in the area you like when you can and forget about the boom bust cycle entirely.

Hubertj

Could be the Russians instead of the British that invade. I think a Russian sub took Fungi whilst doing recon to invade from the west. They will take Kerry first. Then move onto limerick and turn it into a gulag. Tough times ahead.
Property prices will be leat of our worries in a few months.
Although it will mean jobs for everyone which should ensure a soft landing.
Again this is just my opinion but as likely as the rest on here.
Link to article from 1985 about Russian sub sinking in Irish waters.
https://magill.ie/archive/danger-under-irish-sea

In 2015 this happened
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-32333336
Must be linked to property prices.

Again only my opinion. But I have posted links supporting my view.

Mad_maxx

PropQueries wrote: »

Then you should invest in Cairn Homes. Their share price is still below their IPO price in 2015. Maybe invest some in Hibernian REIT, Glenveagh and IRES REIT. All great value property related investments in Ireland at the moment if what you say is true.

Then maybe invest in BOI (another property related investment) as they’re currently trading at a FIFTH of their value in 2015.

Truth is the real investors know where the property market in ireland is heading as otherwise the above share prices wouldn’t be where they are.

thats not true , REIT,s have never been a gauge of the real market on the ground , they are merely a passive way for investors to own property without having to involve themselves in the traditional tasks associated with owning BTL,s

REIT,s are equities at the end of the day and their share price can be manipulated , all of the irish REIT,s are illiquid in terms of daily volume trade ( especially IRES ) , they will also fall with the rest of the stock market , there is no parallel between the share price of the REIT,s and the real market and never has been , the REIT,s have been a poor investment in ireland since they were launched

its the same in most countries , The huge Vanguard REIT which covers large swathes of the U.S market is no higher today than it was in 2006 despite the boom in Real Estate in much of america

as for the banks , banking is a **** business in ireland as you have no real security when you hand out a mortgage , its a declining sector across europe but is especially lousy in ireland , share price of bank of ireland and AIB tells us absolutely nothing about the property market in this country

Hubertj

dundrum23 wrote: »

I’m simply trying to figure out when will be a good time to get a house. You’re saying 50% price reduction in a short time. The signs are not pointing to that. There’s too much support for the housing market here going against that happening, added to the supply/demand issue. No big crash here 2021. Anyway they say “it’s not timing the market, it’s time in the market that counts”. So maybe it’s wise to just get a house in the area you like when you can and forget about the boom bust cycle entirely.

If you’re looking to randomers on boards for advice on making the biggest purchase if your life then don’t buy. This thread is nearly as bad as some of the stuff on Covid. Mad stuff altogether.

Mad_maxx

Timing belt wrote: »

Hungry has a lower tax rate 9% and probably cheaper pay so why are companies not setting up there and instead choosing Ireland?

because Hungary is a dump , rotten with corruption and a pretty unpleasant place even before Orban came to power