FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 / 2019 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Marengo · 17-01-2019 8:27pm

A poster, I think Defaulter, mentioned Burns Day

Mortelaro · 17-01-2019 8:44pm

Gonzo wrote: »

this evenings ensembles run for my hometown of Dunshaughlin is starting to show a few models running into the -10 to -15 temp range at 850 hPA from January 25th, that would be freezer territory at ground level if a few of those came off.

It's still modeling some snow for January 22nd, then snow basically every day from January 25th to February 2nd and stops there because the data doesn't go any further.

At this time ,-10 850 air would probably still be sub zero at sea level
-12 two degrees colder etc

Artane2002 · 17-01-2019 9:15pm

The pressure required depends on the depth of the cold. For example on the 27th of February last year, we had heavy snow but the pressure was 1025mb with uppers of -10c. So 1025mb is sufficient in what the ECM is showing because the uppers get to -11c over Dublin and of course the SSTs are warmer than they were in February last year so you'd think there would be even more convection if what the ECM is showing came off.

Gaoth Laidir posted an excellent guide last year I think but I can't find it.

highdef · 17-01-2019 9:25pm

Also bear in mind that the Irish Sea is about 2c warmer than the North Sea, on average. I would imagine this would mean that even if the uppers were 2c warmer arriving into Ireland than they were arriving in the UK, we should still have similar levels of sea based convection. This is also assuming that SLP is similar in both countries.

nacho libre · 17-01-2019 9:57pm

I wonder, it it pans out, is there a chance of thundersnow, or would we need a bit more instabiliy in the flow? 2009 was great for thundersnow. There was something special about seeing lighting strikes at night set against a white ground.

SleetAndSnow · 17-01-2019 10:03pm

I just wonder how far south it would go, would we even get anything here in Cork City with what the ECM is showing? Its difficult to tell, we are always awkward to get to in snow with these situations, last year a very big exception and amazing.

nacho libre · 17-01-2019 10:19pm

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

I just wonder how far south it would go, would we even get anything here in Cork City with what the ECM is showing? Its difficult to tell, we are always awkward to get to in snow with these situations, last year a very big exception and amazing.

Probaby not enough instability in the flow, if you had a strong easterly breeze it might be different.

A polar low is the best bet for near nationwide snow.

SeaBreezes · 17-01-2019 11:03pm

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

I just wonder how far south it would go, would we even get anything here in Cork City with what the ECM is showing? Its difficult to tell, we are always awkward to get to in snow with these situations, last year a very big exception and amazing.

It nearly has to come from east south east for us in coastal cork to get snow

Marengo · 17-01-2019 11:10pm

SeaBreezes wrote: »

It nearly has to come from east south east for us in coastal cork to get snow

1987 was great for Cork. Heavy snow and -6C 13 January!

sean555 · 17-01-2019 11:35pm

Some 18z run.

SleetAndSnow · 17-01-2019 11:41pm

Very much a UK affair on the GFS18 with very low uppers now really making it past the east/south east. Below is 222hrs. Cork city just about on the boundry of -8/-9 which is what im looking at mainly for obvious reasons :P However the east coast looks to be under -10/11 uppers. UK looks very cold on this run.

222-7UK.GIF?17-18

sdanseo · 17-01-2019 11:44pm

Depth of cold is there on the 18Z for sure but does not make it far enough west in any sort of reliable timeframe. Uppers just aren't good enough.

No appreciable snow to see here.

UK on the other hand... potentially massive disruption. But let's not get hung up on one run because it will be completely different again in 6hrs.

Overall, trend continues very cold. In the longer term, all the indications are still very good.

Gonzo · 17-01-2019 11:45pm

this looks fantastic for England and Wales, not so much for us. The cold and unstable air is diving south-eastwards and missing Ireland altogether, we're just on the very edge of it. Shift the cold west by another 100 miles and we may be on to something good.

Cork Boy 53 · 17-01-2019 11:45pm

SeaBreezes wrote: »

It nearly has to come from east south east for us in coastal cork to get snow

You had no shortage of it last March especially between Kinsale and Inchydoney. Unlikely to see those conditions along the coast again any time in the near future going by present indications.

Marengo · 17-01-2019 11:45pm

I’d rather have -8 uppers as far West as Portlaoise than have them in Warsaw. We have a better chance of tapping in.

SleetAndSnow · 17-01-2019 11:45pm

Easterly seems to be pushed back come 240hrs by cold westerlies/north westerlies not bringing much snow in the rain band that accompanies it but this is too far into FI to be reliable. Hope this is the start of seeing it come further west and west rather then stopping over the UK and heading south

Edit: Interesting, Cold air pushing back into the north at 324

JanuarySnowstor · 17-01-2019 11:51pm

Major cold spell looking certain now!!
Looking dryish at times but confident this will change. Get the cold in and see what happens

squarecircles · 17-01-2019 11:52pm

the bitter intense cold flowing down beautifully into iberia on the 18z. if only it could advance westwards as easily.
an almost direct run from the heart of frozen russia,
barcelona will have its snow

Gonzo · 17-01-2019 11:56pm

squarecircles wrote: »

the bitter intense cold flowing down beautifully into iberia on the 18z. if only it could advance westwards as easily.

This has happened so many times before, it just side-steps Ireland with the Uk getting pasted.

This is so far away and will change many times, the best thing to do right now is hope the cold charts stick and that the cold gets pushed westwards by another 100-200 miles by this time next week.

squarecircles · 17-01-2019 11:58pm

There she is now,ah grand bit a rain

Marengo · 18-01-2019 12:01am

squarecircles wrote: »

There she is now,ah grand bit a rain

12 days away. Pinch of salt if it said snow or rain

Meteorite58 · 18-01-2019 12:47am

In FI yes but the air coming out of Europe has been overall trending colder now for a number of runs, a beast like set up in the making perhaps ? A fairly good setup for a continuation of cold.

Meteorite58 · 18-01-2019 9:39am

Couple more runs like this and looking quite cold going into next weekend.

On the latest ECM runs it shows Ireland with more precipitation than the UK next weekend as frontal bands come in off the Atlantic. So the main cold could be arriving from the E and the snow arriving from the W. Convergence could occur over the W half of the country . It could end up that the W half of the country ends up with the snow. Just one scenario that could develop.

At the moment no major dump showing up on the ECM but a lot of changes could happen in a week.

Easterly Beasterly · 18-01-2019 11:31am

OK, So I'm a novice but to my untrained eye, surely this is a great chart for potential snow for Ireland, am I right in saying that that the Atlantic system is going to slide SE introducing the colder air from the East??

Easterly Beasterly · 18-01-2019 11:33am

Sorry.. forgot to attach the images!

Easterly Beasterly · 18-01-2019 11:34am

Darwin · 18-01-2019 11:44am

I wouldn't have said particularly snowy as the fetch is South Westerly, but the subsequent GFS frames showing the following two days (Sunday and Monday) would be absolutely epic *if* (and a big if) it panned out that way. I'm no expert either, but that would be my limited understanding of those charts.

icesnowfrost · 18-01-2019 11:47am

Easterly Beasterly wrote: »

Sorry.. forgot to attach the images!

Lol, u bet me to it. -12 uppers east cost streamers/ heavy snow showers all the way.

hawkwing · 18-01-2019 11:48am

Fun times ahead for Cork especially on the 6z..

Mortelaro · 18-01-2019 5:15pm

A ukmo snowmaker of a northeasterly for east leinster if ever you saw one for next thursday,notice how it's the same day again so creeping closer not further away ,happy with that all ?

pad199207 · 18-01-2019 5:16pm

Mortelaro wrote: »

A snowmaker of a northeasterly for east leinster if ever you saw one for next thursday,notice how it's the same day again so creeping closer not further away ,happy with that all ?

UKMO?

Always good to have that onboard

Mortelaro · 18-01-2019 5:17pm

pad199207 wrote: »

UKMO?

Always good to have that onboard

Yes

Darwin · 18-01-2019 5:36pm

UKMO: Quite a westward flattening of the azores high allowing the NW/SE slider to potentially deliver the goods for Eastern parts on Wednesday. GFS doesn't flatten it as much, so will be interesting to see what the ECM puts out later.

hatrickpatrick · 18-01-2019 5:58pm

Feckin FV3 is stuck again. This has been happening a lot recently, hopefully they get it resolved before the 18Z later so it doesn't just get overwritten before we can look at it properly

Reckless Abandonment · 18-01-2019 6:33pm

GFSP firing some real cold into europe

SleetAndSnow · 18-01-2019 11:39pm

Ok GFS 18z with the full on reversal pretty much. Imagine this continued. I still think its going to be more of the icon route however that high looks like it will be hard enough to shift.

image.png.5d8cdfecbc26bb5396fffd41d4d32bac.png

image.png.5d8cdfecbc26bb5396fffd41d4d32bac.png

Snowshield? What snowshield?

210-574UK.GIF.789db02687b669380efeb847e125c745.GIF

Strangegravy · 18-01-2019 11:39pm

That is one pretty F.I run for cold lovers, streamers galore with that one...

patneve2 · 18-01-2019 11:50pm

With sub -40 air at 500 hPa anything is possible. Pity the ECM is so different at the same time range

cherryghost · 19-01-2019 2:28am

6 days out... come to papa. 3/4 days of snow and sub-zero day temperatures will do me.

Strangegravy · 19-01-2019 7:51am

Backs off again on the 0Z, but it comes in again in the next few frames after these - rollercoaster anybody?

Again, these are all F.I. charts, even the best charts at this range will chop and change
so don't worry- good news is that massive cold pool in Europe is just building away there, waiting to be tapped into...

highdef · 19-01-2019 10:31am

I actually think the latest GFS run is very good. Yes, on the face of it, is a lot worse looking than yesterday evenings run however the proper cold pool is literally right on the door step of the east for much of the second half of the run. Yes, this may move further and further away in each subsequent run, at which point I will lose optimism however the current set of charts are screaming of potential.
Let's see what the next (just about to begin) and subsequent run or two come up before seeing any possible changes of trends. One less good run on its own is rarely to be trusted.

Rebelbrowser · 19-01-2019 10:32am

highdef wrote: »

I actually think the latest GFS run is very good. Yes, on the face of it, is a lot worse looking than yesterday evenings run however the proper cold pool is literally right on the door step of the east for much of the second half of the run. Yes, this may move further and further away in each subsequent run, at which point I will lose optimism however the current set of charts are screaming of potential.
Let's see what the next (just about to begin) and subsequent run or two come up before seeing any possible changes of trends. One less good run on its own is rarely to be trusted.

Agreed. I think this is a delay but with an even better outcome ultimately.

JCX BXC · 19-01-2019 11:56am

Don't look at the 06Z whatever you do!

Poor models this morning.

Strangegravy · 19-01-2019 1:37pm

JCX BXC wrote: »

Don't look at the 06Z whatever you do!

Poor models this morning.

I remember from previous setups like this, that there can be significant changes even as close as 96hrs... I think this F.I thread for the next few weeks will be enter at your own risk... Good or Bad charts!

pauldry · 19-01-2019 1:53pm

Met Eireann going 5 to 9c most of next week.

I think it will be borderline all week with hail and sleet sticking to make a wintry appearance

Even tomorrow nights -5c is now -2c so may not see the blood moon if its too foggy.

Marengo · 19-01-2019 1:56pm

pauldry wrote: »

Met Eireann going 5 to 9c most of next week.

I think it will be borderline all week with hail and sleet sticking to make a wintry appearance

Even tomorrow nights -5c is now -2c so may not see the blood moon if its too foggy.

As much as I hate to say it, being a cold/snow and heatwave man, if the issue is 50/50 with regard to cold v mild, mild wins 9/10 times.

You need the chance of cold to be 80/20 to even the odds