FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 / 2019 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Reckless Abandonment

That would be fired right at us Marengo if the ECM is right, pity its 240 out, but the trend is still cold.

Marengo

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

That would be fired right at us Marengo if the ECM is right, pity its 240 out, but the trend is still cold.

The good thing is 10 days away is 26th January so we'd be still well in the heart of winter for a cold spell

All to play for this evening UKMO, GFS and ECM all promising something.

Villain

Would it be too much to ask for 00z to hold or upgrade for a change?

Great charts this evening with lots of promise but nothing settled and could all change again tomorrow.

I’d love to see day 11 on ECM even just as tease!

Marengo

Villain wrote: »

Would it be too much to ask for 00z to hold or upgrade for a change?

Great charts this evening with lots of promise but nothing settled and could all change again tomorrow.

I’d love to see day 11 on ECM even just as tease!

We can't get a run of 2 or 3 in a row to establish a little trend. That would be something

Marengo

18Z GFS at 156 hrs bringing in that easterly.. some consistency.

And it improves as the run moves on bringing in more cold.

pad199207

Looking forward to the “downgrades” in the morning

sdanseo

Many of us have been pointing out consistently that the models are struggling. Posting individual runs and discussing them is interesting and to be encouraged but they are not gospel and need to be taken with 25kg bags of de icing salt.

Overall pretty much every model is trending towards a much colder late Jan / early Feb and the sum of all signals from ECM and other reliable medium range data sources are very positive for snow fans.

Watching the pessimism and optimism do battle is like watching the sand flow to the bottom of an egg timer and then turning it upside down again every other day.

Marengo

The morning will go a long way towards telling us if we have something to look forward to at the end of January or if it’ll be postponed until February;)

Marengo

sdanseo wrote: »

Many of us have been pointing out consistently that the models are struggling. Posting individual runs and discussing them is interesting and to be encouraged but they are not gospel and need to be taken with 25kg bags of de icing salt.

Overall pretty much every model is trending towards a much colder late Jan / early Feb and the signals from ECM and other reliable medium range data sources are very positive for snow fans.

Watching the pessimism and optimism do battle is like watching the sand flow to the bottom of an egg timer and then turning it upside down again every other day.

Agreed. I think most of us meet triumph and disaster and treat the two imposters just the same Personally i’m just looking for any signs and hints or cross model agreement

sdanseo

Marengo wrote: »

The morning will go a long way towards telling us if we have something to look forward to at the end of January or if it’ll be postponed until February;)

It may hold a little sway if it's similar to the 12Z.

If it's completely different, as it may well be, it's a continued sign that the supercomputers aren't as super as a complex SSW.

I wouldn't read too much into it until we see at least 3-4 consistent runs, preferably with some agreement from other models.

Marengo

sdanseo wrote: »

It may hold a little sway if it's similar to the 12Z.

If it's completely different, as it may well be, it's a continued sign that the supercomputers aren't as super as a complex SSW.

I wouldn't read too much into it until we see at least 3-4 consistent runs, preferably with some agreement from other models.

Yes if it’s 3 runs in a row with similar output..it might be on to something (GFS) and if ECM and UKMO are on board.

If not it’s just 1 in a row for a milder outlook

Marengo

Personally I enjoy following the models and wouldn’t be too perturbed at change, bar an easterly disappearing at 48hrs out

I know others find the process more stressfull.

pad199207

Quite an extraordinary day of weather models. One thing is for sure many of us will be viewing the overnight runs from behind the sofa!

Meteorite58

Interesting run from the ECM all right , intriguing blast of cold air headed towards us from the NE out towards the end of the run aided by the HP shown to set up over Scandinavia . I'm sure we will see plenty of twists and turns in the coming days. Certainly more interesting model watching than the weeks gone by.








Will be interesting picking through the charts early next week to see how wintry it gets. At the moment to me looks like good old January weather being windy for the first few days and quite cold and wet at the start of next week followed with a wintry mix of sleet, possible hail and snow as the fronts associated with a large area of LP pass over Ireland mixing with the colder airs and pulling in colder air behind them. Has the look of a week where we will be seeing mountain ridges having a coating of snow at times I would think and perhaps some wet snow at lower levels at times .Got the feeling we are starting to see an agreement from the models for for the first 3 days of next week out to about +144.

ECM, UKMO and GFS quite similar up until next Tues I think.

BLIZZARD7

Game on







Griceland high in situ -

BLIZZARD7

Just for fun - Shades of Dec 2010 in the outer reaches of this mornings gfs run

Artane2002

I'm not 100% sure but I think the ECM could be showing bands of heavy wintry showers merging together and pushing into the east for the 24th giving prolonged showers (probably snow but it looks marginal?)

highdef

Artane2002 wrote: »

I'm not 100% sure but I think the ECM could be showing bands of heavy wintry showers merging together and pushing into the east for the 24th giving prolonged showers (probably snow but it looks marginal?)

Agreed, however I can imagine the showers being more of graupely (is that even a word???) nature close to the east coast near sea level, with any lying snow a little bit inland and also on high ground.

Looking at the ICON inspires no confidence in any sort of cold spell, however. Some posters have been praising the ICON lately, not sure if it was just a case that it was showing what we wanted to see rather than its accuracy but with it not showing anything of interest, I note a lack of posters mentioning it. :rolleyes:

Rebelbrowser

highdef wrote: »

Agreed, however I can imagine the showers being more of graupely (is that even a word???) nature close to the east coast near sea level, with any lying snow a little bit inland and also on high ground.

Looking at the ICON inspires no confidence in any sort of cold spell, however. Some posters have been praising the ICON lately, not sure if it was just a case that it was showing what we wanted to see rather than its accuracy but with it not showing anything of interest, I note a lack of posters mentioning it. :rolleyes:

It probably modelled March 2018 better than any other model.

highdef

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

It probably modelled March 2018 better than any other model.

Very true and completely agree as I used it a lot during that event. What I meant is that the majority of posters highlight the charts from models that are showing what they want to see but tend to ignore any models (or at least don't highlight) that show potential spanners in the works. There are some of the more experienced and unbiased regular posters who will do so but these are the exception to the rule.

Back to chart chat, eyes down to see if GFS continues it's developing trend. Today could be the day when things become a bit clearer, depending on what all the models come up with in their runs later. We can live in hope!

Mortelaro

Fi but here's the 6z for next thursday,just 7 days away,that kind of feed with sub zero dew points would eventually pepper the east coast Louth meath down to wexford,with heavy thunder snow showers, it's interesting isn't it that the UK met office brief just 2 days ago was saying uncertainty due to the GFS bringing a milder high down over us and now gfs is saying a variation of this for the last 2 days along side what all other models are hinting at?
Brace yourselves?

squarecircles

Britain locked well in the freezer on the 06z
very cold down its central spine,-13 in the heart of the midlands


the cold less severe over ireland in comparison,epecially along western coastal extremities,
the pig muck was trying hard to fight off the cold,
hopefully the intense cold would eventually spill over us from the east.

hatrickpatrick

squarecircles wrote: »

Britain locked well in the freezer on the 06z
very cold down its central spine,-13 in the heart of the midlands


the cold less severe over ireland in comparison,epecially along western coastal extremities,
the pig muck was trying hard to fight off the cold,
hopefully the intense cold would eventually spill over us from the east.

Are these 2m or 850hpa temps?

KingdomRushed

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Are these 2m or 850hpa temps?

2m

Gonzo

we need more upgrades. Ireland still has too much of an Atlantic influence next week. It's game on for eastern UK, but quite marginal for us, we need the cold to shift at least 150 miles west to have a suitable impact. The ensemble runs for Dublin throughout next week are mostly at the +5 to -7 temp range at 850 hPA, which isn't really great.


We do get proper cold from about the 29th of January, but currently with today's charts, Ireland is too mild from the 23rd to the 28th of January for any disruptive wintry conditions. The cold pools over the UK from the 21st of January and stays there, not making it much past the Welsh coast until the 29th of January. 6 days away is FI so all this is very much subject to change several times a day. Hopefully luck will swing our way and we get into the deeper cold at some stage next week.

nacho libre

As Georgesunsnow use to regulary mention, with cold air advecting westwards from an already cold continent, 850hpa temps, that might seem a tad high to be conducive for snowfall, would suffice for snow. Also, it is often in marginal situations that the greatest snow falls occur. I think Eastern England is going to stay in the freezer, while Ireland will be where the battle ground is , this could end up in agony or ecstasy for some. I think we will be seeing some nice pictures of the Alpine- like Wicklow mountains within the next 14 days.

SleetAndSnow

Arr she blows! Upgrade on 0Z and yesterdays 12z me thinks. Snow not sure I think HP is too close but cold? Yep

nacho libre

Hopefully the UKMO comes on board with this. Let's also hope this isn't the one time GFS trumps the ECM over the modelling of a storm system track off the US.
As there is some serious cold to the North East waiting in the wings.

SleetAndSnow

and then 240hrs comes: All FI! It is still showing a lot of cold in the east, wonder what the next image would have looked like.

Gonzo

this evenings ensembles run for my hometown of Dunshaughlin is starting to show a few models running into the -10 to -15 temp range at 850 hPA from January 25th, that would be freezer territory at ground level if a few of those came off.

It's still modeling some snow for January 22nd, then snow basically every day from January 25th to February 2nd and stops there because the data doesn't go any further.