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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 / 2019 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

nacho libre

It's encouraging to see this given there was talk of 4- 6 weeks of Atlantic driven weather by some folks recently.

Mod Note

This thread is for posting/discussing/analysing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onwards

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Marengo

A poster, I think Defaulter, mentioned Burns Day

Mortelaro

Gonzo wrote: »

this evenings ensembles run for my hometown of Dunshaughlin is starting to show a few models running into the -10 to -15 temp range at 850 hPA from January 25th, that would be freezer territory at ground level if a few of those came off.

It's still modeling some snow for January 22nd, then snow basically every day from January 25th to February 2nd and stops there because the data doesn't go any further.

At this time ,-10 850 air would probably still be sub zero at sea level
-12 two degrees colder etc

Artane2002

The pressure required depends on the depth of the cold. For example on the 27th of February last year, we had heavy snow but the pressure was 1025mb with uppers of -10c. So 1025mb is sufficient in what the ECM is showing because the uppers get to -11c over Dublin and of course the SSTs are warmer than they were in February last year so you'd think there would be even more convection if what the ECM is showing came off.

Gaoth Laidir posted an excellent guide last year I think but I can't find it.

highdef

Also bear in mind that the Irish Sea is about 2c warmer than the North Sea, on average. I would imagine this would mean that even if the uppers were 2c warmer arriving into Ireland than they were arriving in the UK, we should still have similar levels of sea based convection. This is also assuming that SLP is similar in both countries.

nacho libre

I wonder, it it pans out, is there a chance of thundersnow, or would we need a bit more instabiliy in the flow? 2009 was great for thundersnow. There was something special about seeing lighting strikes at night set against a white ground.

SleetAndSnow

I just wonder how far south it would go, would we even get anything here in Cork City with what the ECM is showing? Its difficult to tell, we are always awkward to get to in snow with these situations, last year a very big exception and amazing.

nacho libre

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

I just wonder how far south it would go, would we even get anything here in Cork City with what the ECM is showing? Its difficult to tell, we are always awkward to get to in snow with these situations, last year a very big exception and amazing.

Probaby not enough instability in the flow, if you had a strong easterly breeze it might be different.

A polar low is the best bet for near nationwide snow.

SeaBreezes

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

I just wonder how far south it would go, would we even get anything here in Cork City with what the ECM is showing? Its difficult to tell, we are always awkward to get to in snow with these situations, last year a very big exception and amazing.

It nearly has to come from east south east for us in coastal cork to get snow

Marengo

SeaBreezes wrote: »

It nearly has to come from east south east for us in coastal cork to get snow

1987 was great for Cork. Heavy snow and -6C 13 January!

sean555

Some 18z run.

SleetAndSnow

Very much a UK affair on the GFS18 with very low uppers now really making it past the east/south east. Below is 222hrs. Cork city just about on the boundry of -8/-9 which is what im looking at mainly for obvious reasons :P However the east coast looks to be under -10/11 uppers. UK looks very cold on this run.

222-7UK.GIF?17-18

sdanseo

Depth of cold is there on the 18Z for sure but does not make it far enough west in any sort of reliable timeframe. Uppers just aren't good enough.

No appreciable snow to see here.

UK on the other hand... potentially massive disruption. But let's not get hung up on one run because it will be completely different again in 6hrs.

Overall, trend continues very cold. In the longer term, all the indications are still very good.

Gonzo

this looks fantastic for England and Wales, not so much for us. The cold and unstable air is diving south-eastwards and missing Ireland altogether, we're just on the very edge of it. Shift the cold west by another 100 miles and we may be on to something good.

Cork Boy 53

SeaBreezes wrote: »

It nearly has to come from east south east for us in coastal cork to get snow

You had no shortage of it last March especially between Kinsale and Inchydoney. Unlikely to see those conditions along the coast again any time in the near future going by present indications.

Marengo

I’d rather have -8 uppers as far West as Portlaoise than have them in Warsaw. We have a better chance of tapping in.

SleetAndSnow

Easterly seems to be pushed back come 240hrs by cold westerlies/north westerlies not bringing much snow in the rain band that accompanies it but this is too far into FI to be reliable. Hope this is the start of seeing it come further west and west rather then stopping over the UK and heading south

Edit: Interesting, Cold air pushing back into the north at 324

JanuarySnowstor

Major cold spell looking certain now!!
Looking dryish at times but confident this will change. Get the cold in and see what happens

squarecircles

the bitter intense cold flowing down beautifully into iberia on the 18z. if only it could advance westwards as easily.
an almost direct run from the heart of frozen russia,
barcelona will have its snow

Gonzo

squarecircles wrote: »

the bitter intense cold flowing down beautifully into iberia on the 18z. if only it could advance westwards as easily.

This has happened so many times before, it just side-steps Ireland with the Uk getting pasted.

This is so far away and will change many times, the best thing to do right now is hope the cold charts stick and that the cold gets pushed westwards by another 100-200 miles by this time next week.

squarecircles

There she is now,ah grand bit a rain

Marengo

squarecircles wrote: »

There she is now,ah grand bit a rain

12 days away. Pinch of salt if it said snow or rain

Meteorite58

In FI yes but the air coming out of Europe has been overall trending colder now for a number of runs, a beast like set up in the making perhaps ? A fairly good setup for a continuation of cold.

Meteorite58

Couple more runs like this and looking quite cold going into next weekend.

On the latest ECM runs it shows Ireland with more precipitation than the UK next weekend as frontal bands come in off the Atlantic. So the main cold could be arriving from the E and the snow arriving from the W. Convergence could occur over the W half of the country . It could end up that the W half of the country ends up with the snow. Just one scenario that could develop.

At the moment no major dump showing up on the ECM but a lot of changes could happen in a week.

Easterly Beasterly

OK, So I'm a novice but to my untrained eye, surely this is a great chart for potential snow for Ireland, am I right in saying that that the Atlantic system is going to slide SE introducing the colder air from the East??

Easterly Beasterly

Sorry.. forgot to attach the images!

Easterly Beasterly

Darwin

I wouldn't have said particularly snowy as the fetch is South Westerly, but the subsequent GFS frames showing the following two days (Sunday and Monday) would be absolutely epic *if* (and a big if) it panned out that way. I'm no expert either, but that would be my limited understanding of those charts.

icesnowfrost

Easterly Beasterly wrote: »

Sorry.. forgot to attach the images!

Lol, u bet me to it. -12 uppers east cost streamers/ heavy snow showers all the way.

hawkwing

Fun times ahead for Cork especially on the 6z..

Mortelaro

A ukmo snowmaker of a northeasterly for east leinster if ever you saw one for next thursday,notice how it's the same day again so creeping closer not further away ,happy with that all ?