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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 / 2019 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

  • 01-12-2018 2:25pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 14,307 ✭✭✭✭ nacho libre


    gens-0-1-312.png

    It's encouraging to see this given there was talk of 4- 6 weeks of Atlantic driven weather by some folks recently.




    Mod Note

    This thread is for posting/discussing/analysing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onwards

    If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

    Thanks


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 4,044 ✭✭✭ arctictree


    GFS 12z returning to a very wintry theme from t+216 onwards.


  • Registered Users Posts: 767 ✭✭✭ Snowbiee21


    arctictree wrote: »
    GFS 12z returning to a very wintry theme from t+216 onwards.

    Way too far to be getting hopes up, positive signs at least


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,664 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    Completely different theme to the 06Z GFS, it's something to watch over the next few runs! I'd be weary though, it could dissapear just as fast as it came.

    Good signs however, the GFS obviously thinking this has the potential to show up at some stage.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,440 ✭✭✭ pad199207


    The drop it and pick it back up again scenario/theme from the models is always one to watch in winter.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,171 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    some wintry signals far out in FI, but with the Atlantic now powered up and charged to the max, I wouldn't be banking on wintry conditions this side of Christmas. Even if we get a shot at some cold, it probably won't last very long.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,858 ✭✭✭ Artane2002


    Gonzo wrote: »
    some wintry signals far out in FI, but with the Atlantic now powered up and charged to the max, I wouldn't be banking on wintry conditions this side of Christmas. Even if we get a shot at some cold, it probably won't last very long.

    I agree that it probably won't last long but I do see why there might be a brief cold shot. The teleconnections support a blocked pattern but the powerful jet isn't letting it happen now. There seems to be a gap between low pressures on each side of the Atlantic allowing the Azores High to be sucked up north in the charts. If the gap isn't big enough then we'll probably be stuck in this pattern for longer.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,664 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    The 18Z isn't as amazing but still seems to maintain the cold outbreak, just moving it a couple of hundred km to the east.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,453 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    ECM has been showing stormy weather over the last few runs for next Friday . Track has been changing not surprisingly this far out but showing very strong winds along Atlantic coastal counties especially the W and NW , and Northern counties. Chance of being a named storm but could drift further North also. A bit of a way to go to know for sure.


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    ECU1-144_quf8.GIF


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,205 ✭✭✭ typhoony


    gfs has been toying with the idea of an easterly blast then the followed by the PV heading south, of course it's all beyond the reliable timeframe but we should have reasonably clear picture in a few days time


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,453 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    GFS 12Z looking cold

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,453 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Big difference between the ECM and GFS out at + 240 but the ECM trending a cold air mass moving across Europe from E to W


    240-7PUK_uhz5.GIF

    ECU0-240_njd9.GIF

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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,894 ✭✭✭ BLIZZARD7


    ECM 00z building on the colder theme as we approach Mid-December -

    ECMOPEU00_240_1.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,205 ✭✭✭ typhoony


    gfs 18z keeps on with cold theme as it builds a Scandi high, ecm 12z does it's best but just falls short. can we get enough cold air to the east


  • Registered Users Posts: 142 ✭✭ The12thMan




  • Registered Users Posts: 767 ✭✭✭ Snowbiee21


    Destination Greenland is the message from the pub run


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,894 ✭✭✭ BLIZZARD7


    Up she goes at 120-144hrs -

    ECMOPNH00_144_1.png

    Easterly in place at days 7-8 with a building high to our north and the key low pressure belt building in over southern europe* - No ultra cold 850's as yet but the blocks are falling into place.

    ECMOPNH00_192_1.png

    Expect run to run variation on the same theme post day 7- we need the majority of the EC suite to get on board to be sure the op runs have the right idea here.

    No deep cold showing as yet but these are far from your average December charts - Scandi high controlling the scene for the foreseeable it would seem. Hopefully the atlantic lows all slide under.

    Keep an eye on the key timeframe @ +120 to +168hrs on future model runs.

    *This run doesn't quite get the required 'Genoa low' in place to sustain the pattern but there is plenty of time for that to occur still.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,453 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Looking like it’s going to be storm watch next week given the latest GFS output. Severe weather likely. A very violent depression showing for next Thursday.

    3 out of 4 showing it over or near us this far out, one to watch, makings of unsettled weather the second half of next week and turning cold , ECM colder than GFS.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 447 ✭✭ KingdomRushed


    It is worth running through the GFS ensembles for 6z this morning. Most all of them have some form of low pressure system almost right over us next Thursday. A number of them show an absolutely vicious storm. The track of this is quite similar across a good proportion of the ensembles while the intensity differs.

    Very interesting period of weather approaching. It’s going to be stormy I think we can almost say for certain but with current GFS forecasts showing these dartboard depressions running through Ireland rather than swinging N off the coast as often happens.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    They are bound to get one right eventually.

    The last few storms have been nowhere near as vicious as the +144s showed originally.

    Are they attention seeking or legit?

    As said Id say very windy next week for sure.

    Also if there is to be a vicious storm mid December would not be too unusual especially with the energised jet we are currently covered by.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,307 ✭✭✭✭ nacho libre


    pauldry wrote: »
    They are bound to get one right eventually.

    The last few storms have been nowhere near as vicious as the +144s showed originally.

    .

    The GFS are notorious for doing this most winters, as you say they are bound to be right at some stage, but i wouldn't take too much notice of their depiction just yet. If the UKMO and ECM start modelling a vicious storm to hit us, then i'd take heed. I have a feeling this storm will end up tracking well to the north west of Ireland, and affect parts of Scotland more so than us .


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,858 ✭✭✭ Artane2002


    The GFS are notorious for doing this most winters, as you say they are bound to be right at some stage, but i wouldn't take too much notice of their depiction just yet. If the UKMO and ECM start modelling a vicious storm to hit us, then i'd take heed. I have a feeling this storm will end up tracking well to the north west of Ireland, and affect parts of Scotland more so than us .

    It's hard to take the GFS seriously right now. If the storm doesn't happen the way the GFS is showing then everything that follows the storm on the GFS will probaly be wrong.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,453 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    The chart MT was talking about for Monday week, what a stonker ! Of course out in FI so open to change but a good marker to see how the models are faring.

    Models differ after about next Thurs but all showing an unsettled spell which will get more clear as the days go on, potential for wet and windy weather with a mix of cold and mild air going through associated with fronts.

    Jet keeping S of us it seems steering in the weather in off the Atlantic .


    ECU1-216_jwh2.GIF


    tempresult_lnr1.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,438 ✭✭✭ 17-pdr


    Ensembles continuing to throw out some wild solutions.

    gens-7-1-168_kwu1.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,453 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Yea GFS 18Z showing some very active weather through next weekend , both Fri and Sat into Sun , deepening storms impacting and penetrating far inland. But under the present weather setup this could all change in the next run


    ECM showing a storm off the Atlantic coasts on Fri and another deepening low Sat but that one not impacting Ireland , moving over the UK instead. No sign of the Storm positioned over Ireland for next Monday which was showing on the last run, just shows how changeable the charts are.

    GEM very similar to the ECM with a Storm off the W coast Fri keeping strongest winds along the coasts and the second system on Sat bombing as it deepens on a track over Southern uk.

    To note two days ago most models were showing a storm very near Ireland for this Thurs, this stayed well out to sea with the fronts just making it over us .

    Very unpredictable towards the end of the week, very strong jet nearby will keep the models and forecasters busy.

    ECM1-144_fit4.GIF

    ECU1-144_abp4.GIF

    ECU1-168_ymx3.GIF

    gfs-0-138_dka6.png

    tempresult_nmr5.gif


    gfs-0-174_uop3.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,664 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    If only this chart wasnt +384

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,453 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    GFS has remained somewhat similar to yesterdays run with two vigorous systems next Fri and Sat ( on this run they remain just off the coasts ) . Gem now more like the GFS, ECM showing very stormy conditions on the W coasts next Sat.

    So chopping and changing but a trend of unsettled weather next weekend and possibly stormy at times.

    gfs-0-126_nxd8.png

    gfs-0-150_pim6.png

    gem-0-132_idf6.png

    gem-0-162_rhc3.png

    IWIiQwC.png

    1XuSPy6.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,453 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    All new looking charts again this evening from the ECM, hardly worth putting up they are changing so much . ECM showing the risk of storms receding this weekend, windy and wet. The Farming forecast showing very wet in the SW and NE this week from slow moving fronts that come up against Hp in Europe helping to block and stall them as they move slowly over Ireland . Met Eireann showed 100 mm possible in Valentia by the weekend . Still a big uncertainty how it pans out after Thurs.

    CqAkmWp.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,453 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    The GFS and ECM like chalk and cheese Fri and Sat coming. GFS bringing a Low close to Ireland on Fri and on Sat a very severe deep low with the strongest part of it moving up over Ireland , interesting that the GEM looks very similar to the GFS.

    We shall see , long way off yet , now if the ECM was showing the same.....


    Tropical Tidbits.Com

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  • Registered Users Posts: 991 ✭✭✭ icesnowfrost


    Something to drool over. It’s not perfect but it’s good to see. I slight shift to the west with them uppers.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,894 ✭✭✭ BLIZZARD7


    Not bad for a mean chart @ +180hrs when you consider a lot of the suite have those lows over us sliding more to our south, there's definitely a wintery outcome possible over the Christmas period- as ever, time will tell. These means may actually be useless if the op runs lead the way here. The models haven't got a grip on the situation yet and this will likely get worse as the strat warming comes into play.

    GFSAVGNH00_180_1.png


This discussion has been closed.
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