FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 / 2019 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

ninebeanrows · 16-01-2019 8:10am

There will be knives out over on NetWeather after this morning's EC

Just one run , will be interesting to see if any trend on the ENS.

I wouldnt take too much notice of it for now though.

KingdomRushed · 16-01-2019 8:14am

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

There will be knives out over on NetWeather after this morning's EC

Just one run , will be interesting to see if any trend on the ENS.

I wouldnt take too much notice of it for now though.

There isn’t any model showing anything snowy however. Guess we can’t take much notice of any models. Go on instinct? It’s the worst winter I can recall for absolutely nothing happening from a cold perspective. Dire.

ninebeanrows · 16-01-2019 8:26am

KingdomRushed wrote: »

There isn’t any model showing anything snowy however. Guess we can’t take much notice of any models. Go on instinct? It’s the worst winter I can recall for absolutely nothing happening from a cold perspective. Dire.

The EC monthly and ENS have distinct trend towards a significant cold period. As regards snow- too early to guess. I’m focusing from around 25th Jan onwards for notable cold to dig in. That signal has held solid for weeks now- not gonna throw it in due to a EC deterministic wobble.

esposito · 16-01-2019 8:29am

YanSno wrote: »

Ecmwf 0z is back tracking towards Gfs this morning. As i have been saying we will have more of a zonal influence. cold and mild weather in the same week, no sustain cold

And most of us fools were dismissing the GFS!

No sustained cold for the next few weeks. After that, who knows. I still think we will get a significant cold spell before Winter is out. Although that is my hunch more than anything.

Rebelbrowser · 16-01-2019 8:43am

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

The EC monthly and ENS have distinct trend towards a significant cold period. As regards snow- too early to guess. I’m focusing from around 25th Jan onwards for notable cold to dig in. That signal has held solid for weeks now- not gonna throw it in due to a EC deterministic wobble.

1 Feb is my date. Hilariously that would tie in with what the CFS was showing weeks ago!

Neddyusa · 16-01-2019 9:14am

Ioiiiooooiiiiio bl

pad199207 · 16-01-2019 9:18am

Heck! The fence is a lot sturdier this morning.

sryanbruen · 16-01-2019 9:27am

Very messy ECM means. There’s a defined Genoa Low and or Euro trough but lot of spread to the north with low heights. Looks high pressure dominated for us.

nacho libre · 16-01-2019 4:13pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

Very messy ECM means. There’s a defined Genoa Low and or Euro trough but lot of spread to the north with low heights. Looks high pressure dominated for us.

The canadian sector is too strong, it all leads back to the wave 2 warming being nothing like what transpired last February. You don't need reversal all the way down to get a meandering mid atlantic ridge, but if you want a high to build to the north west it seems you do. Ironically with the upper strat now in recovery mode, it may help to enhance downwelling in key areas and it may lead to favourable blocking in February- which would chime with your winter forecast.

Gaoth Laidir · 16-01-2019 5:02pm

nacho libre wrote: »

The canadian sector is too strong, it all leads back to the wave 2 warming being nothing like what transpired last February. You don't need reversal all the way down to get a meandering mid atlantic ridge, but if you want a high to build to the north west it seems you do. Ironically with the upper strat now in recovery mode, it may help to enhance downwelling in key areas and it may lead to favourable blocking in February- which would chime with your winter forecast.

I think too much time has passed for that to happen now. Radiative cooling and eddy mixing will cool down the last remaining warm strat layers and allow the upper recovery to fire up the westerlies again at these levels. For me it was always looking like one that won't deliver. Once we had that long delay early on it was shot. There were never any indications of anything else. There looks like there will be one final meridional pulse developing eastwards from around 170W over the next week, eventually enhancing the Atlantic ridge, but after that - beyond the model range - I think a zonal pattern will redevelop.

q85dw7osi4lebg · 16-01-2019 5:05pm

4 degrees at 3pm in Knock, that's a winters day.

pauldry · 16-01-2019 5:20pm

Yeah itl probably snow next Tuesday (morning) at some stage and then get mild.

Then prob cold mild cold mild after that with zonal

gabeeg · 16-01-2019 5:23pm

It's looking like a big upgrade on the GFS 12z, though I fear it's just a day or two behind the ECM

ffs

gabeeg · 16-01-2019 5:23pm

Marengo · 16-01-2019 5:23pm

You couldn't make it up! GFS takes another turn..

Marengo · 16-01-2019 5:25pm

And gets better

Snowbiee21 · 16-01-2019 5:26pm

gabeeg wrote: »

It's looking like a big upgrade on the GFS 12z, though I fear it's just a day or two behind the ECM

ffs

This is the reality , it’ll probably fade away in the 00zðŸ˜‚

Marengo · 16-01-2019 5:28pm

ECM 12Z is probably the most eagerly awaited of the winter season so far..and possibly the most important for those looking for cold/snow.

pauldry · 16-01-2019 5:31pm

what time is it due out?

Loads of people asking me (in real life!) if its going to snow

Marengo · 16-01-2019 5:33pm

pauldry wrote: »

what time is it due out?

Loads of people asking me (in real life!) if its going to snow

6-7pm. By 6.30 most updated.

Larbre34 · 16-01-2019 6:08pm

As of this morning, the UK Met are gone 'too close to call'. High energy systems in North America seem likely to whip the jet stream and possibly ridge that warm mid Atlantic pool over us, with some frontal battleground potential over east of Britain and the near continent.

As with every winter, i am giving up paying attention to anything beyond +72

JCX BXC · 16-01-2019 6:17pm

GFS looking quite cold for next Monday/
Tuesday, showing a frontal band with rain followed widespread snow.

Interesting at the least, as it's only just outside the reliable range of +120. If it remains for a few runs we could be on a snow watch sooner than we expected.