FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 / 2019 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Mortelaro

This is day 10 ECM dragging in artic continental air
Day 10 so deep FI ,who knows though at this stage whether a version of this or the previous slides happen

gabeeg

Jebus

http://effis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/applications/monthly-forecast/

sryanbruen

gabeeg wrote: »

Jebus

ECM monthly remains consistent then on the fourth week of January being very cold, no backtracking.

Strong indications for the trough over Europe though a large spread to the south of Greenland continues on the ECM ensembles.

ninebeanrows

EC 12z mean anomalies at 216 and 240hr look good, The extended monthly forecast looks good too as above.

Game still firmly on. Patience needed.

sdanseo

Staring to feel like everything is slowly clicking into place. Multiple sources now pointing a very cold cross hairs at us.
If we can get down-welling and from there blocking established it could be March before a double digit temperature even crosses anyone's mind again - and more and more signals are cropping up daily in favour of this.

Is there any correlation between reaction/propagation time for SSW and the severity of the result?

CirrusBusiness

https://amz.nwstatic.co.uk/monthly_2019_01/image.png.800c2675d6fb9c877649fe172d799e58.png

One to keep an eye on. Looks nasty if it verifies.

BLIZZARD7

GFS charts are rubbish this morning, UKMO is okay, ICON is good and the ECM is stunning, a cold run that would lead to a severe setup in the exteneded... Fitting in nicely with EC 46 for last week of Jan -





Re enforcement's about to arrive from the North East as the trough drops into Scandi/Griceland high builds -



Worth considering the EC 46 has been steadfast since day 1 now about a very cold last week of Jan- Let's see where we go from here

ardinn

Can anyone explain in relatively idiotic terms the patterns that are happening and most likely predictions? Of course its all "wait and see" but how are we looking for an event similar to last year say?

BLIZZARD7

ardinn wrote: »

Can anyone explain in relatively idiotic terms the patterns that are happening and most likely predictions? Of course its all "wait and see" but how are we looking for an event similar to last year say?

No one can say for certain but an event like feb/march last year is highly unlikely in any case, that was exceptional. Look at MT's daily forecasts for an idea of whats going on in the near term. Everything beyond that (I.E this thread) is open to alot of change.

A severe cold spell with some snow is possible in the next few weeks but we have no agreement on such a scenario occuring for now. It is very much a case of wait and see' for the moment but there are encouraging signs. What is likely to happen is a gradual cool down with some rain/sleet/snow events that could go either way, beyond that something more notably cold may come for months end If the ECM is to be believed.

BLIZZARD7

OP run ^ has support amongst the ensembles -



Strong support for an all important Genoa low at day 10 - a very good set of ensembles from the ECM

Marengo

Can't post charts yet but the 12Z GFS is looking a lot colder and more blocked next week Hints of polar lows etc.

sryanbruen

GFS 12z is a more blocked run but it never really gets going in the right places until the very end of the run. It teases a Scandi High next week though meanders somewhat into Central Europe allowing the flow to come more from a southeasterly. Greenland High struggles to get going though the end of the run shows a proper high over Iceland with the winds coming in from the northeast. Better than previous runs but still not there to properly delivering cold in the more reliable timeframe (though anything from the weekend onwards is unreliable really) - looks milder and dry. No westerly flow though.

Let’s see what the ECM has to say this evening.

SleetAndSnow

ECM bringing what looks like another ''Beast'' to the UK at +192hrs! Will it have enough energy to push its way over to here? Lets hope.

Marengo

ECM just out to 192H and a chilly easterly after low pressure sinks south.

pad199207

Oh now....

SleetAndSnow

Beautiful


Would this be conclusive to the Irish Sea firing up? Or would the Southern Counties (cork, waterford, wexford) be better since the southern counties in the UK look to fare best from that? Im not great at figuring out precip yet so very interested in learning that part!

Marengo

216H on ECM pulling in more cold from the east. If that high to the south of Iceland went a little north

SleetAndSnow

-9 uppers in Cork, Waterford and Wexford by 240hrs , messy looking though and bound to change. :

Marengo

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Beautiful


Would this be conclusive to the Irish Sea firing up? Or would the Southern Counties (cork, waterford, wexford) be better since the southern counties in the UK look to fare best from that? Im not great at figuring out precip yet so very interested in learning that part!

Air pressure borderline at 1020hpa, Dublin area at 216H. A little drop of 5hpa could make all the difference. Though snow streams have formed at 1020hpa.

Franz Von Peppercorn

^ looks like -8

Marengo

High pressure regressing west day 10 ECM?? Imagine that's a good sign for Atlantic blocking?

SleetAndSnow

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

^ looks like -8

thought that too but if you trace it there is a bubble of -8 in it which is a different colour, unsure though. its pretty messy.

Cut to the mean showing the OP is an outlier

gabeeg

That is very close to perfect

Meteorite58

Can't resist putting up these charts of snow potential for Tues to Fri next week ( I would imagine these are showing lying snow with the cold being shown) .

That area of LP showing up again early next week,nowhere as deep as earlier runs but full of moisture and potential for windy weather.

Change in the direction of the airmas later next week to more NE'ly / Ely as the Low sinks S according to tonight's run from the ECM .

We are all well aware of the turmoil in the charts recently , a lot of variables have to line up to produce snow like that but putting these here to see if the following runs follow in this trend.

SleetAndSnow

gfs 18z is looking better then 12z to say the least, more in line with ECM. But then again isn't that always the way? Come 0z GFS will have changed tune again most likely. (ECM too maybe though hopefully not)

YanSno

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

gfs 18z is looking better then 12z to say the least, more in line with ECM. But then again isn't that always the way? Come 0z GFS will have changed tune again most likely. (ECM too maybe though hopefully not)

18z gfs is actually very bland too many unresolved resolutions. No sign of a blocking either

SleetAndSnow

YanSno wrote: »

18z gfs is actually very bland too many unresolved resolutions. No sign of a blocking either

Yep was looking nice from around 136hrs but changed during the course of the run to a bland run in comparison.

BLIZZARD7

YanSno wrote: »

18z gfs is actually very bland too many unresolved resolutions. No sign of a blocking either

There is definitely more than a sign of blocking creeping into the extended ensembles though -











Hopefully we don't end up with a west based -NAO but I don't think we will, ECM leading the way here- the others are playing catch up.

If we are going to see a proper cold spell set up for the last week of Jan or so then watch for upgrades in the next 24-72hrs - I don't think the models have got a good grasp of the situation yet.

BLIZZARD7

GFS/GEFS 00z not good if you're looking for winter, UKMO is okayish, GFSp is a halfway house, Hopefully ECM sticks to its guns...

YanSno

Ecmwf 0z is back tracking towards Gfs this morning. As i have been saying we will have more of a zonal influence. cold and mild weather in the same week, no sustain cold