Betting Thread Part III - Insert witty title here

sydthebeat · 07-12-2018 2:10pm

leinster lost a point to -14 after the teams were named , which is surprising.

Edit :
My bad. It hasn't actually moved....

Del.Monte · 07-12-2018 5:18pm

Dropped the Newcastle game in favour of the Ulster one and just the two bets.

Fortune favours the foolhardy.

Leinstertomas · 07-12-2018 5:24pm

razorblunt wrote: »

Took Newcastle +7, should have waited!
Looking at Pau -12, at home to Worcester now too.

Can get Pau -9 with Boylesports

thomond2006 · 07-12-2018 6:34pm

11/4 for the outright win is tempting but the collapse away to Racing weighs on my mind.

thomond2006 · 07-12-2018 10:48pm

thomond2006 wrote: »

I've taken Newcastle +15. No other handicaps stand out really, though if Newcastle comes through I might follow up with Glasgow +2 away to Lyon.

Very annoyed I didn't bet the other way at halftime. The cap was Edinburgh -6.

kuang1 · 08-12-2018 12:30pm

thomond2006 wrote: »

Very annoyed I didn't bet the other way at halftime. The cap was Edinburgh -6.

Yeah good point.

When I used to bet I was "all in" for whatever I had committed to before kick off. The amount of times I failed to cover my ass mid-game and got burned was unreal. Was one of the big reasons I stopped gambling.
Couldn't think logically mid-bet.

sydthebeat · 08-12-2018 12:38pm

kuang1 wrote: »

Yeah good point.

When I used to bet I was "all in" for whatever I had committed to before kick off. The amount of times I failed to cover my ass mid-game and got burned was unreal. Was one of the big reasons I stopped gambling.
Couldn't think logically mid-bet.

Fear of a double burn though

kuang1 · 08-12-2018 12:44pm

sydthebeat wrote: »

Fear of a double burn though

Well not necessarily. If my original bet was going well, I could have covered myself midstream to ensure a profit no matter what. (betfair was very useful for this, would give you the red (loss) and green (profit) numbers)
But I was too often too greedy!

razorblunt · 08-12-2018 1:40pm

Leinstertomas wrote: »

Can get Pau -9 with Boylesports

Don't have an account with them, hit the -12 with a sweat!

Leinstertomas · 08-12-2018 4:17pm

Gone for a double on Cronin and McGrath to both score at 8/1

sydthebeat · 11-12-2018 3:26pm

im going to repeat the same mistake as last week, by going on newcastle early....

@ -2 though i think they are good value and should have some of their injury worries from last weekend back.

they've added hardie (flanker) and payne (prop) to their squads which is a good boost.
Flood should be back starting and hopefully Wilson will be over his ear infection.

sydthebeat · 11-12-2018 6:35pm

sydthebeat wrote: »

i see he's now gone into 2/1

chris farrell now gone into 6/5.....

the 3/1 bet is looking like great value at this stage

thomond2006 · 13-12-2018 1:00pm

Gloucester are -2 at home to Exeter and Exeter have just named a largely second string side. I've jumped on Gloucester to win at 4/6, I don't think that will last.

Exeter play Saracens at home on the 22nd, all focus is on that I imagine. They're out of Europe already unless they get three BP wins and results go their way. It's not happening.

thomond2006 · 13-12-2018 1:06pm

Ulster are -8 but Scarlets are coming with a full side despite being out of contention. That handicap looks about right to me.

The real mccoy 91 · 13-12-2018 1:18pm

thomond2006 wrote: »

Gloucester are -2 at home to Exeter and Exeter have just named a largely second string side. I've jumped on Gloucester to win at 4/6, I don't think that will last.

Exeter play Saracens at home on the 22nd, all focus is on that I imagine. They're out of Europe already unless they get three BP wins and results go their way. It's not happening.

100% on board with this reckon the handicap will hit 5 or 6 before kick off have snapped up some of the -2

thomond2006 · 13-12-2018 1:26pm

The real mccoy 91 wrote: »

100% on board with this reckon the handicap will hit 5 or 6 before kick off have snapped up some of the -2

It's gone to -5 now. I'd still take it.

sydthebeat · 13-12-2018 2:08pm

anyone think Racing -3 is value ???

they are really targeting the H Cup this year and Leicester are a mess.

Leinstertomas · 13-12-2018 4:42pm

Made this accumulator the other day @13/1
Ulster win V Scarlets
Munster win V Castres
Glasgow -24 V Lyon
Leinster -23 V Bath
Toulouse -19 V Wasps

thomond2006 · 14-12-2018 9:35pm

thomond2006 wrote: »

Gloucester are -2 at home to Exeter and Exeter have just named a largely second string side. I've jumped on Gloucester to win at 4/6, I don't think that will last.

Nightmare so far.

Del.Monte · 15-12-2018 12:54am

I put the hex on Gloucester but once again Jacob Stockdale saved the day. Only down a few Euros so far this weekend - lost on a novelty bet on Theresa May too.

sydthebeat · 15-12-2018 10:14am

Stupid glaws

In other news, leinster gone into - 20,
Newcastle out to - 5

thomond2006 · 15-12-2018 10:41am

sydthebeat wrote: »

Stupid glaws

In other news, leinster gone into - 20,
Newcastle out to - 5

The weather would make me avoid -20
Then again given my recent luck Leinster will then probably put 50 on them.

sydthebeat · 15-12-2018 10:45am

thomond2006 wrote: »

The weather would make me avoid -20
Then again given my recent luck Leinster will then probably put 50 on them.

I took bath +24

I don't think it will be a high scoring game

sydthebeat · 15-12-2018 8:58pm

Wiped out in my bets today.

Leinster imperious and the horrible weather didn't materialise.

Need Newcastle timeouts to win by 3 or more to take some of the sting out.

Del.Monte · 15-12-2018 9:23pm

Wipeout for me too - went for the wrong try scorers in both games and wasn't able to watch either.

thomond2006 · 04-01-2019 1:05pm

I took Ulster +23, both sides are weakened but I think Leinster will be laboured.

Del.Monte · 05-01-2019 10:55pm

The broken clock strikes again. Over 100% up on the day but Andrew Conway is starting to owe me.

Juwwi · 06-01-2019 3:58am

Whats the point in posting this even if it is about a clock broken twice a day ,

Post them up before .

Del.Monte · 06-01-2019 11:15am

Juwwi wrote: »

Whats the point in posting this even if it is about a clock broken twice a day ,

Post them up before .

If you bothered to read the thread you would see that I do - it depends on the game - several of the bets were placed after I arrived in the pub and just before kick-off.

ionadnapokot · 10-01-2019 12:35pm

Toulouse +11 look like good value
No Sexton, Toner & Lowe
With a gap still at 12

thomond2006 · 10-01-2019 12:43pm

It's tempting but I've been burned countless times backing the opposition handicap in the RDS.

ionadnapokot · 10-01-2019 12:56pm

thomond2006 wrote: »

It's tempting but I've been burned countless times backing the opposition handicap in the RDS.

I’ve been tempted....to a 0.5 “point advised” level!

The real mccoy 91 · 10-01-2019 1:08pm

Gloucester getting 4 is tempting with cipriani back..
Also like Edinburgh getting 4
Ulster straight win
And will be taking the over in scarlets v Leicester

aloooof · 10-01-2019 1:14pm

The real mccoy 91 wrote: »

Ulster straight win

I think I prefer the Racing side of that, unfortunately.

Is Castres +16 a bit big? Haven't seen the lineups, but they can still qualify so I'd expect them to be somewhat competitive.

Del.Monte · 10-01-2019 2:48pm

Just starting with some insurance - hopefully, things won't pan out this way.

Del.Monte · 11-01-2019 8:00pm

Gone with Munster try scorers tonight - hope I don't put the hex on anyone.

sydthebeat · 11-01-2019 8:02pm

Quite poor odds....

You'll probably need two of them to score to make money?

The real mccoy 91 · 11-01-2019 8:08pm

Gone with
Farrell 3/1
Ben Morgan 9/2

Leinstertomas · 11-01-2019 8:17pm

Gone for 2 enhanced match specials from Boylesports.
Earls or Conway first try 4/1
Murray or Carbery motm 4/1

sydthebeat · 11-01-2019 8:32pm

First try scorer Charlie sharplez @10/1

Anytime try scorer Niall scannell @ 10/3

Del.Monte · 11-01-2019 11:09pm

sydthebeat wrote: »

Quite poor odds....

You'll probably need two of them to score to make money?

Down by just under 10% but it's a game of two halves days and there's plenty of better opportunities tomorrow.

Del.Monte · 12-01-2019 11:43am

Thrown some more on Toulouse at 7/2 with an early cash-out in mind once the Leinster screw starts to turn.

razorblunt · 12-01-2019 3:20pm

Cooney out.
Racing -4 are EVENS.

Del.Monte · 12-01-2019 4:45pm

Leinster/Toulouse didn't quite go according to plan but I bailed out early and lashed the whole pot on Jacob Stockdale to score any time @ 13/10 - Happy days!

sydthebeat · 14-01-2019 2:35pm

some early forecasts .....

Leinster -21 is about right.
They will know exactly what they need by the time they kick off and when the TBP is secure they could take the foot off the peddle and wasps could run in some late scores.... therefore im staying away from the spread on this one. I might have a look at half time spreads.

Munster -5 looks attractive. Exeter had a good win last weekend but however they have been pretty kak on the road. a couple of early tries will take the wind from their sails.

i dont like betting on dead rubbers, but i think newcastle -5 against toulon could be good value too. Toulon wont give a crap about this, and they have Racing at home the following week. A home loss against Racing puts them in in the mix again for relegation play offs (though i think they will be safe by then). Newcastle are also staring down the relegation barrell, and while their results over the last few months have been poor, a win here against these "european giants" would be a great fillip for them.

monty / embra is a tough call.. how will monty travel?

ulster -4 v leceister is probably my nap so far though.

sydthebeat · 16-01-2019 2:19pm

Some open bets:

sydthebeat · 17-01-2019 3:45pm

add to the above

monty +4

racing -19

Leinstertomas · 18-01-2019 2:58pm

Have Ulster as part of an accumulator but odds have gone from 1/2 to 10/11. Must be stronger Leicester team than anticipated. Should I be worried?

sydthebeat · 18-01-2019 3:14pm

Leinstertomas wrote: »

Have Ulster as part of an accumulator but odds have gone from 1/2 to 10/11. Must be stronger Leicester team than anticipated. Should I be worried?

they've gone -4 to -1 so while still favourites the spread has shortened.

It is strong Leicester team but i fancy ulster to win, and i fancy them to win with some to spare.

20-01-2019 4:34pm

I'm 8/10 in this weekends games. I need Toulouse and Leinster wins to get 10/10 and €475

Betting Thread Part III - Insert witty title here

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