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02-08-2020, 10:40   #1081
Marius34
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Originally Posted by JJJackal View Post
Updated: (I disagree with the firesale in the short term anyway - potentially a longer term issue, if things dont improve)

In favour of prices staying the same or rising:

Low supply to start with
Decreased supply due to decreased building
Saving up to 5 billion from 2 billion in same period last year - therefore more deposit money
Government pumping billions into the economy
First time buyers support increased by 10,000
Expect enormous headline growth rates post pandemic (eg US GDP down 30% now. Expect headline growth rates post pandemic although. Note to get back to 100% after a 30% fall you need growth of >42%)
Irish people only going on staycations so Airbnb properties come back on the market for Airbnb (decreased hotel capacity due to COVID restrictions)
New jobs post Brexit

In favour of prices falling:
Recession
Job losses
Banks worried about lending
People moving out of Dublin (could lead to falls in Dublin and price rises elsewhere though - but on average a fall)
Businesses closing and never re-opening
Emigration of non nationals to the list freeing up rental supply
Airbnb stock in Dublin returning to long term rental market

Potential firesales in the future...
Less new jobs than expected post Brexit
I highlighted some of this, which likely will have reverse impact by next Summer/September.

For medium term (1-5 years) another important aspect, is natural population growth. And change in demographics (currently big number of teenagers)
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02-08-2020, 10:58   #1082
Graham
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For medium term (1-5 years) another important aspect, is natural population growth.
A lockdown baby-boom?
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02-08-2020, 11:04   #1083
Marius34
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A lockdown baby-boom?
No
Young population. Natural increase: Relatively low death rate vs relatively high birth rate.
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02-08-2020, 11:12   #1084
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Pump and dump!

https://www.independent.ie/irish-new...-39416426.html
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02-08-2020, 11:30   #1085
Pelezico
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Yeah....the market is in a frenzy...not.

There seem to be a lot of price reductions on myhome.ie...over 100 per week.
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02-08-2020, 11:36   #1086
Graham
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Isn't the Nationwide Property Price Barometer based on prices achieved?

Will certainly be interesting to see the figures.
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02-08-2020, 12:15   #1087
JJJackal
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Yeah....the market is in a frenzy...not.

There seem to be a lot of price reductions on myhome.ie...over 100 per week.
Asking prices on my home and daft are just that - asking prices...

If i was an auctioneer and a lad came to be wanting to sell his 200,000 house for 250,000, I would take it on (some fee up front, free advertising with my signs, get people calling and potentially sell another home, etc etc)
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02-08-2020, 12:26   #1088
Mic 1972
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Asking prices dont' match sale prices of course, but ultimately follow the same trrends
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02-08-2020, 12:42   #1089
Pelezico
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The number of recorded changes in price in myhome.ie has increased dramatically over the last few months.

If this continues, and the number of transactions remains subdued, a pattern will develop, not dissimilar to the last recession.
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02-08-2020, 12:44   #1090
Graham
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Asking prices dont' match sale prices of course, but ultimately follow the same trrends
It will be interesting to see the DAFT report when it comes out.
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02-08-2020, 18:58   #1091
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Dunno if it's been posted or not, but had to laugh when I seen this:

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/br...dublin/4441772


Quarter of a million euro for a 0.17 acre site and a knock on the door from the Council the minute you get the keys. 'Cash buyers only'.
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02-08-2020, 19:29   #1092
Pelezico
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Dunno if it's been posted or not, but had to laugh when I seen this:

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/br...dublin/4441772


Quarter of a million euro for a 0.17 acre site and a knock on the door from the Council the minute you get the keys. 'Cash buyers only'.

What is your problem?

It has a Neptune leak free shower base. Dont you know how expensive those things are?
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02-08-2020, 19:45   #1093
combat14
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looks like govt are looking at public recruitment ban and another moratorium on promotions, this will hit staff morale very badly

pay cuts, increment freezes, below inflation pay agreements and tax rises must also be in the offing shortly for public services staff too...

wonder how much this will affect property market confidence in the autumn...
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02-08-2020, 19:48   #1094
Graham
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Do you have a link to the details combat14, I'd be curious to see what the plans are.
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02-08-2020, 19:52   #1095
tigger123
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looks like govt are looking at public recruitment ban and another moratorium on promotions, this will hit staff morale very badly

pay cuts, increment freezes, below inflation pay agreements and tax rises must also be in the offing shortly for public services staff too...

wonder how much this will affect property market confidence in the autumn...
According to the Irish Examiner, a recruitment ban is one of the options which may or not be considered.

There's nothing about increment freezes, or pay cuts.
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