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Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Graham

Continued from here:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058041687

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Pelezico

Cantstandsya wrote: »

Yeah it's not the place for this, it's the place to take pot shots at public sector workers without response. Same as last recession blame it on the public sector.

There have been tonnes of recruitment campaigns and they are competitive and they have decent terms.

If you don't apply for a job and don't get it then you've nothing to complain about. If you do apply for a good job with lots of competition and don't get it, that's the fault of neither the job nor the people who did get it.

As for the respective skills of PS vs private sector workers, judging by the comments in this thread I'm sure any semi competent private sector worker will have no problem mopping the floor with the competition during a PS recruitment campaign.

The resentment displayed towards the public sector is consistent with that displayed in previous downturns.

For me, the inevitable and inexorable fall in house prices is all falling into place.

Cantstandsya

The Belly wrote: »

Its not the thread for this but

Do a little research and see how many jobs were available in which area and how many applications they received.

Also, see which posts they were not able to fill.

Practically none apart from Health care specialized jobs.

Your "why don't you apply argument" is horse **** the fact is the jobs available are always oversubscribed at all times because of all the perks that go with it.

I presume you're a PS worker but the facts are very very few jobs of similar skills in the private sector provide anything close to the package and security a PS worker gets.

Yeah it's not the place for this, it's the place to take pot shots at public sector workers without response. Same as last recession blame it on the public sector.

There have been tonnes of recruitment campaigns and they are competitive and they have decent terms.

If you don't apply for a job and don't get it then you've nothing to complain about. If you do apply for a good job with lots of competition and don't get it, that's the fault of neither the job nor the people who did get it.

As for the respective skills of PS vs private sector workers, judging by the comments in this thread I'm sure any semi competent private sector worker will have no problem mopping the floor with the competition during a PS recruitment campaign.

The Belly

Cantstandsya wrote: »

Ok indeed. Are you saying there haven't been recruitment campaigns the last few years?

I know for a fact that there have been, so why don't all the people who crow on about how great public sector jobs are ever seem to apply for them?

Its not the thread for this but

Do a little research and see how many jobs were available in which area and how many applications they received.

Also, see which posts they were not able to fill.

Practically none apart from Health care specialized jobs.

Your "why don't you apply argument" is horse **** the fact is the jobs available are always oversubscribed at all times because of all the perks that go with it.

I presume you're a PS worker but the facts are very very few jobs of similar skills in the private sector provide anything close to the package and security a PS worker gets.

Cantstandsya

The Belly wrote: »

:rolleyes: Ok

Ok indeed. Are you saying there haven't been recruitment campaigns the last few years?

I know for a fact that there have been, so why don't all the people who crow on about how great public sector jobs are ever seem to apply for them?

Pelezico

I reckon we will see about 20 price falls on myhome.ie on Tuesday.

The Belly

Cantstandsya wrote: »

Nonsense. Plenty of recruitment campaigns the last few years. People want public sector jobs in a recession but they aren't interested in those jobs during the good times.

Private sector pays more so people go there. Private sector is less secure so people whine about public sector in hard times.

:rolleyes: Ok

Cantstandsya

The Belly wrote: »

Everyone should defined pension sick pay flexitime increments jobsharing and pretty much immune from being let go once you have a CID.

Problem is only 169 jobs available and they are mainly for Hospital consultants.

Nonsense. Plenty of recruitment campaigns the last few years. People want public sector jobs in a recession but they aren't interested in those jobs during the good times.

Private sector pays more so people go there. Private sector is less secure so people whine about public sector in hard times.

PommieBast

mcsean2163 wrote: »

I was looking at an office in park West for €150k. It's sold already before I could view. That seemed to be firesale to me....

Parkwest had a huge glut of commercial space even before the pandemic, so to go that quickly is either a huge discount or an elaborate confidence trick.

The Belly

Cantstandsya wrote: »

So why don't you get one?

Everyone should defined pension sick pay flexitime increments jobsharing and pretty much immune from being let go once you have a CID.

Problem is only 169 jobs available and they are mainly for Hospital consultants.

Hubertj

combat14 wrote: »

not yet it is only a matter of time ..

the country has gone from 45 billion in debt to approx. 245 billion in 12 years

starting to sound a lot like 2008/9 again with public sector being targeted again

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40025909.html%3ftype=amp

What do you you mean by “targeted”? Public sector jobs are a gravy train. You don’t need morale if you haVe a job for life. Misery misery misery

The Belly

combat14 wrote: »

not yet it is only a matter of time ..

the country has gone from 45 billion in debt to approx. 245 billion in 12 years

starting to sound a lot like 2008/9 again with public sector being targeted again

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40025909.html%3ftype=amp

Your going to see a lot of public sector staff over 50 in a position to retire to go soon into the winter and by new year.

Expect an exodus of teachers and 3rd level staff guards etc. they would mainly fall into this catogory.

mcsean2163

mcsean2163 wrote: »

I'd add

Emigration of non nationals to the list freeing up rentalsupply

Airbnb stock in Dublin returning to long term rental market.

Firesale properties by distressed businesses / landlords.

I was looking at an office in park West for €150k. It's sold already before I could view. That seemed to be firesale to me....

combat14

tigger123 wrote: »

According to the Irish Examiner, a recruitment ban is one of the options which may or not be considered.

There's nothing about increment freezes, or pay cuts.

not yet it is only a matter of time ..

the country has gone from 45 billion in debt to approx. 245 billion in 12 years

starting to sound a lot like 2008/9 again with public sector being targeted again

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40025909.html%3ftype=amp

tigger123

combat14 wrote: »

looks like govt are looking at public recruitment ban and another moratorium on promotions, this will hit staff morale very badly

pay cuts, increment freezes, below inflation pay agreements and tax rises must also be in the offing shortly for public services staff too...

wonder how much this will affect property market confidence in the autumn...

According to the Irish Examiner, a recruitment ban is one of the options which may or not be considered.

There's nothing about increment freezes, or pay cuts.

Graham

Do you have a link to the details combat14, I'd be curious to see what the plans are.

combat14

looks like govt are looking at public recruitment ban and another moratorium on promotions, this will hit staff morale very badly

pay cuts, increment freezes, below inflation pay agreements and tax rises must also be in the offing shortly for public services staff too...

wonder how much this will affect property market confidence in the autumn...

Pelezico

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Dunno if it's been posted or not, but had to laugh when I seen this:

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/tir-na-nog-eagans-field-donabate-dublin/4441772

Quarter of a million euro for a 0.17 acre site and a knock on the door from the Council the minute you get the keys. 'Cash buyers only'.

What is your problem?

It has a Neptune leak free shower base. Dont you know how expensive those things are?

[Deleted User]

Dunno if it's been posted or not, but had to laugh when I seen this:

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/tir-na-nog-eagans-field-donabate-dublin/4441772

Quarter of a million euro for a 0.17 acre site and a knock on the door from the Council the minute you get the keys. 'Cash buyers only'.

Graham

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Asking prices dont' match sale prices of course, but ultimately follow the same trrends

It will be interesting to see the DAFT report when it comes out.

Pelezico

The number of recorded changes in price in myhome.ie has increased dramatically over the last few months.

If this continues, and the number of transactions remains subdued, a pattern will develop, not dissimilar to the last recession.

Mic 1972

Asking prices dont' match sale prices of course, but ultimately follow the same trrends

JJJackal

Pelezico wrote: »

Yeah....the market is in a frenzy...not.

There seem to be a lot of price reductions on myhome.ie...over 100 per week.

Asking prices on my home and daft are just that - asking prices...

If i was an auctioneer and a lad came to be wanting to sell his 200,000 house for 250,000, I would take it on (some fee up front, free advertising with my signs, get people calling and potentially sell another home, etc etc)

Graham

Isn't the Nationwide Property Price Barometer based on prices achieved?

Will certainly be interesting to see the figures.

Pelezico

Smouse156 wrote: »

Pump and dump!

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/news/bidding-wars-for-niche-homes-as-buyers-flood-the-market-following-covid-19-lockdown-39416426.html

Yeah....the market is in a frenzy...not.

There seem to be a lot of price reductions on myhome.ie...over 100 per week.

Smouse156

Pump and dump!

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/news/bidding-wars-for-niche-homes-as-buyers-flood-the-market-following-covid-19-lockdown-39416426.html

Marius34

Graham wrote: »

A lockdown baby-boom?

Young population. Natural increase: Relatively low death rate vs relatively high birth rate.

Graham

Marius34 wrote: »

For medium term (1-5 years) another important aspect, is natural population growth.

A lockdown baby-boom?

Marius34

JJJackal wrote: »

Updated: (I disagree with the firesale in the short term anyway - potentially a longer term issue, if things dont improve)

In favour of prices staying the same or rising:

Low supply to start with
Decreased supply due to decreased building
Saving up to 5 billion from 2 billion in same period last year - therefore more deposit money
Government pumping billions into the economy
First time buyers support increased by 10,000
Expect enormous headline growth rates post pandemic (eg US GDP down 30% now. Expect headline growth rates post pandemic although. Note to get back to 100% after a 30% fall you need growth of >42%)
Irish people only going on staycations so Airbnb properties come back on the market for Airbnb (decreased hotel capacity due to COVID restrictions)
New jobs post Brexit

In favour of prices falling:
Recession
Job losses
Banks worried about lending
People moving out of Dublin (could lead to falls in Dublin and price rises elsewhere though - but on average a fall)
Businesses closing and never re-opening
Emigration of non nationals to the list freeing up rental supply
Airbnb stock in Dublin returning to long term rental market
Potential firesales in the future...
Less new jobs than expected post Brexit

I highlighted some of this, which likely will have reverse impact by next Summer/September.

For medium term (1-5 years) another important aspect, is natural population growth. And change in demographics (currently big number of teenagers)

JJJackal

mcsean2163 wrote: »

I'd add

Emigration of non nationals to the list freeing up rentalsupply

Airbnb stock in Dublin returning to long term rental market.

Firesale properties by distressed businesses / landlords.

Updated: (I disagree with the firesale in the short term anyway - potentially a longer term issue, if things dont improve)

In favour of prices staying the same or rising:

Low supply to start with
Decreased supply due to decreased building
Saving up to 5 billion from 2 billion in same period last year - therefore more deposit money
Government pumping billions into the economy
First time buyers support increased by 10,000
Expect enormous headline growth rates post pandemic (eg US GDP down 30% now. Expect headline growth rates post pandemic although. Note to get back to 100% after a 30% fall you need growth of >42%)
Irish people only going on staycations so Airbnb properties come back on the market for Airbnb (decreased hotel capacity due to COVID restrictions)
New jobs post Brexit

In favour of prices falling:
Recession
Job losses
Banks worried about lending
People moving out of Dublin (could lead to falls in Dublin and price rises elsewhere though - but on average a fall)
Businesses closing and never re-opening
Emigration of non nationals to the list freeing up rental supply
Airbnb stock in Dublin returning to long term rental market
Potential firesales in the future...
Less new jobs than expected post Brexit

mcsean2163

JJJackal wrote: »

The property rise/fall goes round and round:

In favour of prices staying the same or rising:

Decreased supply due to decreased building
Saving up to 5 billion from 2 billion in same period last year - therefore more deposit money
Government pumping billions into the economy
First time buyers support increased by 10,000
Expect enormous headline growth rates post pandemic (eg US GDP down 30% now. Expect headline growth rates post pandemic although. Note to get back to 100% after a 30% fall you need growth of >42%)

In favour of prices falling:
Recession
Job losses
Banks worried about lending
People moving out of Dublin (could lead to falls in Dublin and price rises elsewhere though - but on average a fall)
Businesses closing and never re-opening

Happy to add others to fall and rise columns - over to ye?

I'd add

Emigration of non nationals to the list freeing up rentalsupply

Airbnb stock in Dublin returning to long term rental market.

Firesale properties by distressed businesses / landlords.