Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Brussels Sprout

Smouse156 wrote: »

Pump and dump!

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/news/bidding-wars-for-niche-homes-as-buyers-flood-the-market-following-covid-19-lockdown-39416426.html

Niamh Horan.........christ

The Belly

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Niamh Horan.........christ

Its the last kick of a dying horse. They know their property ad revenue stream is going to take a big hit.

Iceman29

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Niamh Horan.........christ

My first thought.... I didnt know she had experience in the property game. Funny that all that were interviewed were estate agents. I read the piece in yesterdays indo and had to laugh......

trying to catch the last few fools is my guess

Hubertj

Iceman29 wrote: »

My first thought.... I didnt know she had experience in the property game. Funny that all that were interviewed were estate agents. I read the piece in yesterdays indo and had to laugh......

trying to catch the last few fools is my guess

Who is she? Am I supposed to know?

Iceman29

Hubertj wrote: »

Who is she? Am I supposed to know?

Writes for the Indo, never usually about property i think. Certainly not a property expect by any stretch,... so of her previous work would include the below.... Do the Indo let anybody write about anything these days?
I'm sure she's a good journo about other things

Brian and Amy to take on Chris and Dawn in Comic Relief duet
Cut it too fine and you might miss a long-awaited trim
Gay Byrne's daughters reveal their father’s last days and how he got his final wish
Dublin hosepipe ban 'could be in force on Tuesday'
'I had to tell my kids they were safe' - RTÉ's Brian O'Donovan
Laura feels 'huge pressure' of replacing 'Normal People' slot
Botox clinics planning to open from lockdown six weeks early
Charlie is fit, well and full of common sense - just don't mention cocooning
Joe Duffy gets candid on losing his pension, coronavirus and a reckoning
Longer lockdown 'not warranted' says leading immunologist
'Our livelihood is hanging by a thread' - Irish hairdressers speak out
'I never did anything wrong. I don't have any enemies' - Jimmy Mansfield Jnr, the second son who has 'nothing to hide'

Rossvet

Iceman29 wrote: »

My first thought.... I didnt know she had experience in the property game. Funny that all that were interviewed were estate agents. I read the piece in yesterdays indo and had to laugh......

trying to catch the last few fools is my guess

Yep.
"Buy quick before prices go up"

Mic 1972

Smouse156 wrote: »

Pump and dump!

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/news/bidding-wars-for-niche-homes-as-buyers-flood-the-market-following-covid-19-lockdown-39416426.html

Well this may be the last leg up before collapse, who knows? But the article is not inaccurate tho, it's been madness lately

dor843088

https://www.irishtimes.com/topics/topics-7.1213540?article=true&tag_person=Pat+Davitt

All Pat Davitt does is pump the property market. No one should ask his opinion let alone a national newspaper.

JimmyVik

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Asking prices dont' match sale prices of course, but ultimately follow the same trrends

Asking prices orbit sale prices over time.

BEdS_83

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/retail-and-services/owner-of-dundrum-town-centre-to-sell-prized-assets-1.4320509

"Hammerson has collected just over 30 per cent of the rent it was due for the third quarter, according to the statement. It has about £2.4 billion (€2.73 billion) of debt, according to a company filing from February."

Assetbacked

Now I don't want to add to the fear unnecessarily as I think it is still another 12-15 months before we see any potential fallout (subject to no government intervention to stimulate the market) from covid, but a couple things in this article on the PTSB interim financials stood out for me; https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/ptsb-slides-into-loss-amid-75m-bad-loans-charge-1.4321589

1. This is in spite of the fact the government has provided pandemic support payments the past few months and we are not going to have a v-shaped recovery, most analysts predict at this stage;

"Permanent TSB (PTSB) swung into loss for the first six months of the year as the mortgage bank set aside €75 million to cover an expected surge in bad loans as customers struggle with the Covid-19 economic crisis."

and

"The Covid-19 economic shock has resulted in 10,500 PTSB mortgage holders availing of temporary payment breaks and a slump in home loans activity. In total, €1.6 billion, or 10 per cent, of the bank’s total mortgage book has been subject to mortgage breaks, it said."

2. The quote from the chief executive, in spite of the write downs and him noting that the outlook remains "unpredictable", is reminiscent of something we would've heard 13 years ago around this time;

“The severity and duration of the Covid-19 pandemic and its impact on the economy remains unpredictable,” said Eamonn Crowley, who became group chief executive in late June. “However, I am confident of the bank’s ability to remain resilient, to continue to support our customers, colleagues and communities building on our well established franchise in the Irish market.”

Vikings

Assetbacked wrote: »

1. This is in spite of the fact the government has provided pandemic support payments the past few months and we are not going to have a v-shaped recovery, most analysts predict at this stage; and

I know a number of people taking the available mortgage breaks in order to squirrel some money away to help their situation in the short-medium term. Despite the long term cost effects.

While the government supports might help them make ends meet now and pay the mortgage, future uncertainty is making them be cautious about spending. Better to have that 3 months worth of mortgage payments available for the now in case you might need it for crucial costs.

GreeBo

GreeBo wrote: »

I think the first one is pushing it, though it does have a very wide site and no neighbors on one side.
I think the other it keenly priced at 995.

Tbf you'd probably be gutting any house built more than 20 years ago, you'd have much more left with either of these two after the gutting. They don't build them like that anymore.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/2-rathfarnham-park-rathfarnham-dublin-14/4442992
The house next door to the 995 has just appeared on the market for €1.3!

Brussels Sprout

GreeBo wrote: »

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/2-rathfarnham-park-rathfarnham-dublin-14/4442992
The house next door to the 995 has just appeared on the market for €1.3!

Nice gaff (apart from the BER rating - which I presume a prospective buyer could do something about)

Billythekid19

GreeBo wrote: »

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/2-rathfarnham-park-rathfarnham-dublin-14/4442992
The house next door to the 995 has just appeared on the market for €1.3!

You could buy 26 houses in kerry for cheaper, may become more attractive now that wfh is the new normal. https://www.daft.ie/kerry/houses-for-sale/cahersiveen/lighthouse-view-cahersiveen-kerry-2200434/

wassie

Another stella example of the Irish Town Planning 'process' during the Celtic Tiger....

awec

Looks like one of them is occupied too, that must be a bizarre place to live.

SozBbz

GreeBo wrote: »

What are you expecting for your 1.2 and in what sort of locations?

You can get a 5-bed semi-d with a large south facing garden in rathfarnham for 50K more.
https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/10-crannagh-road-rathfarnham-dublin-14/4429783
Now it obv needs refurb, hence asking what you are expecting to find for that money?
For 995K you can get a larger 4bed just down the road, again large south facing garden and walk in condition.
https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/4-rathfarnham-park-rathfarnham-dublin-14/4422745

I got sucked into looking back because I know the area a bit, but I think the first one is massively reaching and if they get €1.2 for that, then the world has gone mad. The 2nd one is in far better shape. Number of bedrooms isnt everything. Its about space and proportion. The first one is definitely tired, and the second one.... tired might be unfair but its not fantastic. Wouldnt think the kitchens/bathrooms are that new.

I still think that both are high for Rathfarnham. Its a fine area, but wouldnt be hugely desirable IMO because of 2 main factors;
1 - public transport - its only really served by bus, no Luas/Dart. In comparison to areas like Blackrock as mentioned by another poster, its quite poorly served.
2 - the village itself doesnt offer much in terms of lifestyle when compared to Blackrock or even Dundrum more locally where theres a great choice of cafes/bars/restaurants etc.



As for the neighbouring house asking 1.3.... I can't see it myself. Its also a bit tired (the trolleys in lieu of a kitchen island? who do they think they're fooling?)

For comparison, a house that was recently fully remodeled in a neighbouring area to blackrock was asking €1.2m (and I assume they got it as it was marked as Sale Agreed within 2/3 weeks). Better location, more transport options, and renovated to the extent that its basically a new build but with the benefit of sitting on an established road. I don't see how your money would be better spend in Rathfarnham.

Edit: This is the house I was talking about above.

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-sale/monkstown/maison-95-monkstown-avenue-monkstown-dublin-2272096/#img=31

errlloyd

awec wrote: »

Looks like one of them is occupied too, that must be a bizarre place to live.

I was thinking the same thing. Amazingly, the Indo has an interview with her! Up a hill behind a graveyard. No street lighting.

Life ruining. Residential developments should have anchor tenants like shopping centres do or something. My sister lived in a ghost estate in Roscommon till recently, roughly the same amount of houses but about 5 were occupied. It was pretty dreadful.

https://www.independent.ie/regionals/kerryman/news/forced-to-live-for-nine-years-in-ghost-estate-38360508.html

BEdS_83

Billythekid19 wrote: »

You could buy 26 houses in kerry for cheaper, may become more attractive now that wfh is the new normal. https://www.daft.ie/kerry/houses-for-sale/cahersiveen/lighthouse-view-cahersiveen-kerry-2200434/

https://www.independent.ie/regionals/kerryman/news/forced-to-live-for-nine-years-in-ghost-estate-38360508.html

I had to google it around to find out why that price, I didn't know about it

brisan

TheSheriff wrote: »

Popped into my notification as listed as a "Detached house"........

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/tir-na-nog-egans-field-donabate-dublin/4441772

From what I recall you will not get permission to build anything bigger on that site.
Basically you are buying a fancy mobile home as its only good for holidays

GreeBo

SozBbz wrote: »

For comparison, a house that was recently fully remodeled in a neighbouring area to blackrock was asking €1.2m (and I assume they got it as it was marked as Sale Agreed within 2/3 weeks). Better location, more transport options, and renovated to the extent that its basically a new build but with the benefit of sitting on an established road. I don't see how your money would be better spend in Rathfarnham.

Edit: This is the house I was talking about above.

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-sale/monkstown/maison-95-monkstown-avenue-monkstown-dublin-2272096/#img=31

Thats a nice house, finished well, but the garden isnt a patch on either of the Rathfarnham ones, some people will pay a lot to get that sort of garden. Its a bit like location, no matter what you do you cant change it.

Iceman29

Vikings wrote: »

I know a number of people taking the available mortgage breaks in order to squirrel some money away to help their situation in the short-medium term. Despite the long term cost effects.

While the government supports might help them make ends meet now and pay the mortgage, future uncertainty is making them be cautious about spending. Better to have that 3 months worth of mortgage payments available for the now in case you might need it for crucial costs.

Would this not be a serious issue in the long run. Imagine what they'll be like when the sh1t really hits the fan in a few months and they arent able to tighten their belt and borrow to keep up with their lifestyle.

This could lead to more and more personal debt

brisan

Pelezico wrote: »

The autumn will provide more granularity on numbers of transactions. The precursor to a collapse is a dearth of transactions.

With respect to the actual sales values, For a bog standard generic house in my general area, recent sales prices suggest to me that we are at 2017 prices.

JJJackal wrote: »

Updated: (I disagree with the firesale in the short term anyway - potentially a longer term issue, if things dont improve)

In favour of prices staying the same or rising:

Low supply to start with
Decreased supply due to decreased building
Saving up to 5 billion from 2 billion in same period last year - therefore more deposit money
Government pumping billions into the economy
First time buyers support increased by 10,000
Expect enormous headline growth rates post pandemic (eg US GDP down 30% now. Expect headline growth rates post pandemic although. Note to get back to 100% after a 30% fall you need growth of >42%)
Irish people only going on staycations so Airbnb properties come back on the market for Airbnb (decreased hotel capacity due to COVID restrictions)
New jobs post Brexit

In favour of prices falling:
Recession
Job losses
Banks worried about lending
People moving out of Dublin (could lead to falls in Dublin and price rises elsewhere though - but on average a fall)
Businesses closing and never re-opening
Emigration of non nationals to the list freeing up rental supply
Airbnb stock in Dublin returning to long term rental market
Potential firesales in the future...
Less new jobs than expected post Brexit

Add a lack of foreign students and Irish students staying at home as Third level educators move most of their teaching online

brisan

Pelezico wrote: »

I reckon we will see about 20 price falls on myhome.ie on Tuesday.

Give the man a prize
4 price rises and 20 price drops as of 4 pm Tuesday

fliball123

brisan wrote: »

Add a lack of foreign students and Irish students staying at home as Third level educators move most of their teaching online

That goes both ways Irish students will be staying at home instead of going abroad same goes for workers like builders , sparks who all fecked off during the last recession they cant just up and leave

fliball123

I just noticed on my home the available properties for sale is gone below 18.5k I have never seen such a low figure for available properties

awec

Iceman29 wrote: »

Would this not be a serious issue in the long run. Imagine what they'll be like when the sh1t really hits the fan in a few months and they arent able to tighten their belt and borrow to keep up with their lifestyle.

This could lead to more and more personal debt

No. It just means they'll pay more interest over the course of the mortgage. Mortgage breaks are nothing new. It's not great for banks if lots of mortage holders take a break at the same time, but at an individual level the costs and consequences are pretty inconsequential in the long run.

brisan

dor843088 wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/topics/topics-7.1213540?article=true&tag_person=Pat+Davitt

All Pat Davitt does is pump the property market. No one should ask his opinion let alone a national newspaper.

Seeing as how the Irish Times owns myhome.ie which is exclusively used by EAs ,I am not a bit surprised

brisan

Assetbacked wrote: »

Now I don't want to add to the fear unnecessarily as I think it is still another 12-15 months before we see any potential fallout (subject to no government intervention to stimulate the market) from covid, but a couple things in this article on the PTSB interim financials stood out for me; https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/ptsb-slides-into-loss-amid-75m-bad-loans-charge-1.4321589

1. This is in spite of the fact the government has provided pandemic support payments the past few months and we are not going to have a v-shaped recovery, most analysts predict at this stage; and

2. The quote from the chief executive, in spite of the write downs and him noting that the outlook remains "unpredictable", is reminiscent of something we would've heard 13 years ago around this time;

The last piece as you rightly pointed out seems like a direct quote from the Sean FitzPatrick playbook.