Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Pelezico

awec wrote: »

No. It just means they'll pay more interest over the course of the mortgage. Mortgage breaks are nothing new. It's not great for banks if lots of mortage holders take a break at the same time, but at an individual level the costs and consequences are pretty inconsequential in the long run.

There are big implications for banks capital adequacy criteria if loans are not being serviced.

Add to that the political pressure on banks not to charge interest during this period.

brisan

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Nice gaff (apart from the BER rating - which I presume a prospective buyer could do something about)

The only real option regarding the BER is a wrap and that's at least 45-50k for a property that size ,as well as insulation in the attic and balloons in the chimneys

MacronvFrugals

brisan wrote: »

Seeing as how the Irish Times owns myhome.ie which is exclusively used by EAs ,I am not a bit surprised

Julien Merceile covered this direct conflict of interest in hist book - The Political Economy and Media Coverage of the European Economic Crisis : The Case of Ireland

We've all seen the "Cant afford Stoneybatter, why not give Cabra a look" articles.

smurgen

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Julien Merceile covered this direct conflict of interest in hist book - The Political Economy and Media Coverage of the European Economic Crisis : The Case of Ireland

We've all seen the "Cant afford Stoneybatter, why not give Cabra a look" articles.

The talking up of the market is getting more obvious by the day. For example having Niamh Horan writing articles on property screams desperation.

brisan

smurgen wrote: »

The talking up of the market is getting more obvious by the day. For example having Niamh Horan writing articles on property screams desperation.

I am trying to research the last time property prices either stalled or rose during a recession

So far no luck but I will keep looking

Fed say Biggest recession since the Great Depression
ECB says biggest recession in peacetime in the last 100 years
Irish Central Bank says biggest recession since the foundation of the state
English Central Bank says the biggest recession in 300 years
Dan O Brien ( Irish Independent )says this recession could make 2008 look like a blip.
Record levels of Government Dept and growing daily.
Over 1m workers depending on the state for some or all of its income

Irish estate agents and Irish times
It will be grand lads don't be worrying

bidiots

Country(World) is on life support, probably will be for the next 6 months so its still all 'stable'...then.....jesus....mayhem.

tobsey

brisan wrote: »

I am trying to research the last time property prices either stalled or rose during a recession

So far no luck but I will keep looking

Fed say Biggest recession since the Great Depression
ECB says biggest recession in peacetime in the last 100 years
Irish Central Bank says biggest recession since the foundation of the state
English Central Bank says the biggest recession in 300 years
Dan O Brien ( Irish Independent )says this recession could make 2008 look like a blip.
Record levels of Government Dept and growing daily.
Over 1m workers depending on the state for some or all of its income

Irish estate agents and Irish times
It will be grand lads don't be worrying

In the 1980s in Ireland they did: http://www.moneyguideireland.com/house-price-changes-in-ireland-a-history.html

The levels of falls in 2009-2013 here were unprecedented anywhere in the world. That was caused by building over 150k houses in 2006/7. There was too much supply and not enough demand. Demand is likely to drop due to people’s ability to afford property but we don’t seem to have an excess of supply.

Marius34

brisan wrote: »

I am trying to research the last time property prices either stalled or rose during a recession

So far no luck but I will keep looking

Are you searching globally or Ireland only?

Bass Reeves

tobsey wrote: »

In the 1980s in Ireland they did: http://www.moneyguideireland.com/house-price-changes-in-ireland-a-history.html

The levels of falls in 2009-2013 here were unprecedented anywhere in the world. That was caused by building over 150k houses in 2006/7. There was too much supply and not enough demand. Demand is likely to drop due to people’s ability to afford property but we don’t seem to have an excess of supply.

Tobsey
Do you not know that this dose not fit the narrative. Most cannot understand supply and demand. All there presumption are that we are going to return to 2012 prices in 6-12 months even though it took four years and even then the majority of the drop was in 2009 and 2011.

Any one that points out different is a property bull even thou many state like myself that we could see a drop in prices but that it will not be anything like 2007-2012 as there is no excess supply.

They all presume that everyone of 7-10k Aerbnb hosts are a stressed owner, that every LL will be under pressure with repayments even though many bought at the lower prices from2010-2016. Many have survived the last recession and are better set up now.

Then there's the people who will lose there jobs but this recession of recessions will not effect these property bears and they will buy there forever homes(something they have failed to do all along even in the last property bust) and live happily every after.

I think they should be careful what they wish for.

Pelezico

4880 properties sale agreed on myhome.ie and 17691 for sale on 4th July

It may be worth tracking these numbers from time to time.

They will probably increase over the next few months as recession bites.

At current rates of say 2000 transactions per month, we have nearly one year supply on the market.

Marius34

Pelezico wrote: »

4880 properties sale agreed on myhome.ie and 17691 for sale on 4th July

It may be worth tracking these numbers from time to time.

They will probably increase over the next few months as recession bites.

At current rates of say 1000 transactions per month, we have nearly two years supply on the market.

17691 for sale - is myhome National level
1000 transactions per month - is Dublin level

Pelezico

Marius34 wrote: »

17691 for sale - is myhome National level
1000 transactions per month - is Dublin level

You are right...I was adjusting post as you corrected me.

Marius34

Pelezico wrote: »

You are right...I was adjusting post as you corrected me.

now it's better, but actually still your numbers is to low. Currently it's around 3000 transactions per month.

Pelezico

Marius34 wrote: »

now it's better, but actually still your numbers is to low. Currently it's around 3000 transactions per month.

Marius..I reckon we will struggle to hit 2000 in July and this will slow over the next few months.

Let's split it and say 2500 transactions per month. On this basis, the average house takes ten months to sell at present.

I believe this will increase as we enter a deep protracted recession.

One point to note is that the denominator in this case is all sales on the residential property register whilst the numerator is all sales on myhome.ie which is not all properties on market....but it will do.

RANIA

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Tobsey
Do you not know that this dose not fit the narrative. Most cannot understand supply and demand. All there presumption are that we are going to return to 2012 prices in 6-12 months even though it took four years and even then the majority of the drop was in 2009 and 2011.

Any one that points out different is a property bull even thou many state like myself that we could see a drop in prices but that it will not be anything like 2007-2012 as there is no excess supply.

They all presume that everyone of 7-10k Aerbnb hosts are a stressed owner, that every LL will be under pressure with repayments even though many bought at the lower prices from2010-2016. Many have survived the last recession and are better set up now.

Then there's the people who will lose there jobs but this recession of recessions will not effect these property bears and they will buy there forever homes(something they have failed to do all along even in the last property bust) and live happily every after.

I think they should be careful what they wish for.

We are selling and buying and not sure what to do, prices are gone so high where we want to buy, yet if we wait our house we need to sell will go back into negative equity (we bought it in 2006) don't know if we should plough ahead and know we are overpaying but still able to sell and or just wait

The Belly

RANIA wrote: »

We are selling and buying and not sure what to do, prices are gone so high where we want to buy, yet if we wait our house we need to sell will go back into negative equity (we bought it in 2006) don't know if we should plough ahead and know we are overpaying but still able to sell and or just wait

Possible sell and rent although this may not be suitable for your particular circumstances.

Pelezico

The Belly wrote: »

Possible sell and rent although this may not be suitable for your particular circumstances.

It is probably too late for that.

The market is already down ten percent in my preferred location.

Bass Reeves

RANIA wrote: »

We are selling and buying and not sure what to do, prices are gone so high where we want to buy, yet if we wait our house we need to sell will go back into negative equity (we bought it in 2006) don't know if we should plough ahead and know we are overpaying but still able to sell and or just wait

Nobody can crystal ball gaze and be sure of what happened. If you sell and do not buy and prices rise the gap on the purchase of your new house will get bigger. If prices drop you will have a smaller mortgage.

However you have to access the risk factors

awec

The Belly wrote: »

Possible sell and rent although this may not be suitable for your particular circumstances.

The depreciation in value on his house would need to be really quite significant for selling to rent to be financially beneficial.

Iceman29

well there goes the potential "1000" that amazon were to bring over the next few years.....
"870 DAA staff apply for redundancy as aviation crisis grows"

and if that wasnt bad enough here's more news from US..."US economy needs more support than thought, warns Fed official"

Things are beginning to fall apart now and it's becoming slightly clearer on just how fu#ked things are going to be and we're nowhere near a solution either.....oh and Brexit....

0gac3yjefb5sv7

Iceman29 wrote: »

well there goes the potential "1000" that amazon were to bring over the next few years.....
"870 DAA staff apply for redundancy as aviation crisis grows"

and if that wasnt bad enough here's more news from US..."US economy needs more support than thought, warns Fed official"

Things are beginning to fall apart now and it's becoming slightly clearer on just how fu#ked things are going to be and we're nowhere near a solution either.....oh and Brexit....

Recession for a few years then back to growth. Same as it's always been forever.

Iceman29

MattS1 wrote: »

Recession for a few years then back to growth. Same as it's always been forever.

I don't know about that.... The experts are predicting much worse than a recession. If you compare this to the 08 crash in terms of destruction..... this is streets ahead and much much worse. 08 will be a walk in the park compared to this.

0gac3yjefb5sv7

Iceman29 wrote: »

I don't know about that.... The experts are predicting much worse than a recession. If you compare this to the 08 crash in terms of destruction..... this is streets ahead and much much worse. 08 will be a walk in the park compared to this.

It won't be for the property market anyway. 08 was once in a lifetime. This won't be half as bad. I've followed this thread for ages and your constantly spouting doomsday.

Iceman29

MattS1 wrote: »

It won't be for the property market anyway. 08 was once in a lifetime. This won't be half as bad. I've followed this thread for ages and your constantly spouting doomsday.

So how can the property market not crash while everything else around the world does?

Oh yeah, this time is different, wont be half as bad......:pac::pac::pac:

Roberto_gas

MattS1 wrote: »

It won't be for the property market anyway. 08 was once in a lifetime. This won't be half as bad. I've followed this thread for ages and your constantly spouting doomsday.

He has been true isn’t it ? Constantly predicting something accurate is a skill alright..

Markets have not turned back as far as I can see..still flat to above average prices..more properties on the market definitely!

brisan

Marius34 wrote: »

Are you searching globally or Ireland only?

All first world economies

Billythekid19

Iceman29 wrote: »

I don't know about that.... The experts are predicting much worse than a recession. If you compare this to the 08 crash in terms of destruction..... this is streets ahead and much much worse. 08 will be a walk in the park compared to this.

If anything I would say it will be the recession where the gap between the middle class and working class will widen further. Take public sector workers for example, all getting a 2 % pay rise in October. Half the country have saved a fortune since March by not spending in pubs/restaurants/non-grocery retail. Personally I have accumulated more savings in the last 6 months than in all of 2019.

Marius34

brisan wrote: »

All first world economies

I'm not sure where you are looking, that you can't find.
Maybe there were no recessions in Ireland before Credit crisis, I checked neighboring UK. And it had in total 3 recessions in past 50 years (apart from 2008 Credit crisis):
1973-76
1980-81
1990-92
1 resulted in small property price increase, 1 resulted in price stagnating, 1 resulted in small price decrease. None of them resulted in major price fall.

Marius34

Iceman29 wrote: »

So how can the property market not crash while everything else around the world does?

Oh yeah, this time is different, wont be half as bad......:pac::pac::pac:

How come we passed the worst quarter (2020 Q2) in modern history, and property prices has not started to fall yet?
Last crisis it was falling from very begging of the crisis.
Oh yeah, this time is different. No?

Markitron

This thread is like Groundhog Day without any of the humor, or Edge of Tomorrow without the fun of watching Tom Cruise die over and over again.