Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Cyrus

Browney7 wrote: »

The only stats worth looking at are the CSO price index stats and changes which are a few months in arrears and these are showing the property market has been flat for a number of months now.

i have made that point several times,

that particular poster doesnt want to know.

as it was last year good houses are selling well, often over asking, houses needing big renovations are languishing as renovation costs are mental.

anything over 1m is a lot slower.

we havent seen big price drops yet, we may but its not today.

Browney7

bubblypop wrote: »

I'm looking in various areas around Dublin 7.
I saw 2 properties in the list above, in particular 7 kinvara ave, asking 495k. I only remember it asking 450k.
Had an asking price offer on the first day..... Must have fallen through.... Maybe covid related.

Survey might have shown up something or else bidder couldn't get the finance in the end and the underbidder made a take or leave it offer which was accepted. Or else the offer of asking on day one was nonsense or never really existed at all

brisan

wassie wrote: »

All buyers want the market to drop, until the day they become homeowners.

Funny that.

I dont see what price your home falls to rises to makes any difference
its your home not a disposable asset
It only becomes an issue if you are selling.
Then any property you are buying will have risen or fallen basically in line with your home.
EG
Your house is worth 300k
You want to buy a house for 400k
100k loan needed
Both drop 10%
Your house is now worth 270k
New house worth 360k
Loan needed 90k
if you trade down you will have less cash in your pocket 90k instead of 100k.
Granted if you have multiple properties you will be affected.
But like the ads on TV say
The value of your investment may rise or fall.
No one has a right to make a profit( via rent ) on an ever increasing asset
Life does not work that way
Unless you want to sit in the Pub telling your friends that my house is worth a million ,I honestly don't see what difference it makes.
Once you can afford the Mortgage ,and its your home why worry.

Graham

brisan wrote: »

I dont see what price your home falls to rises to makes any difference
its your home not a disposable asset
It only becomes an issue if you are selling.

It's a feeling/sentiment thing. When property prices go up, homeowners 'feel' wealthier regardless of the fact the value is locked up.

This does influence spending to a degree.

Cyrus

brisan wrote: »

I dont see what price your home falls to rises to makes any difference
its your home not a disposable asset
It only becomes an issue if you are selling.
Then any property you are buying will have risen or fallen basically in line with your home.
EG
Your house is worth 300k
You want to buy a house for 400k
100k loan needed
Both drop 10%
Your house is now worth 270k
New house worth 360k
Loan needed 90k
if you trade down you will have less cash in your pocket 90k instead of 100k.
Granted if you have multiple properties you will be affected.
But like the ads on TV say
The value of your investment may rise or fall.
No one has a right to make a profit( via rent ) on an ever increasing asset
Life does not work that way
Unless you want to sit in the Pub telling your friends that my house is worth a million ,I honestly don't see what difference it makes.
Once you can afford the Mortgage ,and its your home why worry.

yes thats correct in one sense but i suppose no one wants to buy a house for 500k and see the one next door sell for 250k a year later either.

this all reminds me a little of the property pin back in 2009/10, no house price was too low, red bricks in ranelagh at 450k were widly overpriced and of course the same houses were back at 7 figures within 4 years.

So for the bears prices will never be low enough, and the bulls wont see the drop coming, very few will time it right and be in a position to capitalise.

Assetbacked

Mr Hindley wrote: »

Well, I'm someone with a low post count who has posted purely anecdotal evidence stating that where I was looking, most places seemed to be going over asking, and quite quickly - and I do solemnly swear that I'm not an estate agent. I'm just an ordinary joe trying to move back to Ireland from London, and constrained to the south Dublin / north Wicklow area for family reasons.

I was having a quite unscientific nosey through the PPR for my preferred areas (Dun Laoghaire and Shankill) earlier in the week and that seemed to bear out my sense that most places are going for over-asking, sometimes by large amounts; but there were a few that went for under. My - again unscientific assessment - was that the good places are going like hotcakes, but the only-OK places are acting more normally.

I'm not offering the above as any kind of formal proof of anything; but I do find anecdotal stories from other posters very useful, they just need to be taken as that - anecdotal.

goingagain wrote: »

Low post count not an estate agent.

Actually i do a lot of business on boards so I switched to my second profile as I didn’t want any clients who might look up my posts to see me talking about a 1.2 million house budget.

We’re looking in a very small area, like 6:7 roads in an area. Spent all night tossing and turning trying to decide if we want to bid again on a house or wait until next year.

Like I said we are sale agreed so that would mean pulling our sale

shatners bassoon wrote: »

Low post count, not an estate agent and would be very happy for prices to drop a bit but everything I'm looking at in D7/8/9 is flying.

boars wrote: »

Low post count, not an estate agent.

Looking to buy in Navan area. It's really frustrating ringin up estate agents enquiring about a house on daft/ myhome.ie only to find it's sold. All of them have been on the market for the last 9 months

The quick succession of the posts with the consistent "anecdotal" evidence has me suspicious.

Graham

Mod Note

enough with the conspiracy theories.

Assume every poster has some sort of skin in the game and you won't go too far wrong.

shatners bassoon

wassie wrote: »

All buyers want the market to drop, until the day they become homeowners.

Funny that.

Deep

Villa05

JimmyVik wrote:

Age matters here. If you were 35 at the time and sat out the last recession until now, you would be 47 or so. You are looking at a max mortgage term of 18 years at this stage. Sit out this coming recession and you may never be buying a house.

Yes indeed it does and the people controlling the market are well aware of this and all policies are constructed to push you into buying no matter what the cost

Smouse156 wrote:

You are 100% correct in that nearly all the HTB is for the builder but it does help those with no deposit saved since the new rules came in (300k new build requires no deposit now).

100% mortgages by the back door via politicians. What could possibly go wrong?

wassie wrote:

Sure it will impact certain sectors, but I don't see how Brexit will impact heavily on the Irish property market. If anything the commercial sector has gained from this over the last couple of years with firms choosing to relocate to Ireland. We will still trade with UK after Brexit and a trade deal will be done at some point.

Those sectors are successful Irish indigenous industries. These are industries we do not want to loose

Assetbacked wrote:

Waiting for Brexit fallout is like waiting for Godot. 4 years later and nothing has happened, now the pandemic provides a good excuse to kick the can down the road further. It's starting to get to the point where another vote on Brexit is not out of the question considering a generation of politics as passed by.

Many are saying the pandemic is an opportunity for the UK to plough ahead quicker with a hard Brexit as they can blame the pandemic for the negative economic effects of Brexit

MacronvFrugals wrote:

1150 a month is an awful lot nicer than 2150, that was his rational even with office rumors suggesting layoffs incoming.

Ah well, another government constructed policy to force you to buy.
Choke supply leading to extortionate rents forcing people to buy regardless of risk to their income

Graham wrote:

It's a feeling/sentiment thing. When property prices go up, homeowners 'feel' wealthier regardless of the fact the value is locked up.

The irony being, it most likely leads to higher cost of everything leading to people in truth being poorer.

Childcare
Healthcare
Taxation etc


Most businesses need a premises therefore higher property prices lead to higher costs leading to poorer population

BEdS_83

boars wrote: »

Low post count, not an estate agent.

Looking to buy in Navan area. It's really frustrating ringin up estate agents enquiring about a house on daft/ myhome.ie only to find it's sold. All of them have been on the market for the last 9 months

sent email to one, a week ago, she didn't answer me, 2 days later I sent again, she answered me this time, she said that house might be sold, she wasn't sure of that, and then she said, before I continue and look that, do you have the AIP otherwise I won't even look =/
I guess houses are selling themselves lately here.

GreeBo

£

lomb wrote: »

Well realistically yes there is but any kind of reasonably large say 2k sq foot somewhat private house in Dublin with a garden is a minimum of 575k. And that's Clondalkin probably the second worst area in Dublin. My folks paid 60k punts in 1990 for such a house, they watched it climb to 800k and then likely 575-600 today. Even the inheritance tax on it would be more than 3 times the purchase price.
House prices are barmy in general. At least the house I bought I know the productive cost is more than what I paid for it (3000sq foot=551 rebuild +100site cost+time/hassle 50k=700k),so how much could it depreciate by at 460, probably not a lot. I doubt I would part with 600k for my parents house and I couldn't even afford to if I wanted.

Firstly 2ksqft is more than "reasonably large" in my opinion.


As for Clondalkin being the 2nd worst area in Dublin? You need to get out more!

£60K in 1990 is €134,171 now, and its 30 years ago, expecting the current value to have any relation to current prices is crazy.
Avg wage was €25K in 1990, its now €39K

I'm not sure a model where houses sell for less than their cost to build is really one we want to go after....who is going to build these houses exactly?

GreeBo

goingagain wrote: »

We’re in the south Dublin market, max budget 1.2. Houses are going mad money with lots of bidders. One was up for 850 closed well over a million and needed total renovation.

We’re eager to move on with our lives, but we just can’t find anything. I thought with our budget we’d have our pick. Not the case.

Currently mortgage free in a 4 bed semi next to our desired area, so I think we might stay out for a while longer.

We’re sale agreed on our house, but we think we’ll have to pull out.

What are you expecting for your 1.2 and in what sort of locations?

You can get a 5-bed semi-d with a large south facing garden in rathfarnham for 50K more.
https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/10-crannagh-road-rathfarnham-dublin-14/4429783
Now it obv needs refurb, hence asking what you are expecting to find for that money?
For 995K you can get a larger 4bed just down the road, again large south facing garden and walk in condition.
https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/4-rathfarnham-park-rathfarnham-dublin-14/4422745

goingagain

GreeBo wrote: »

What are you expecting for your 1.2 and in what sort of locations?

You can get a 5-bed semi-d with a large south facing garden in rathfarnham for 50K more.
https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/10-crannagh-road-rathfarnham-dublin-14/4429783
Now it obv needs refurb, hence asking what you are expecting to find for that money?
For 995K you can get a larger 4bed just down the road, again large south facing garden and walk in condition.
https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/4-rathfarnham-park-rathfarnham-dublin-14/4422745

Both those houses would be perfect if they were in the area we’re looking at. I think my biggest problem is a have such small search area

TheSheriff

Popped into my notification as listed as a "Detached house"........

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/tir-na-nog-egans-field-donabate-dublin/4441772

MacronvFrugals

TheSheriff wrote: »

Popped into my notification as listed as a "Detached house"........

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/tir-na-nog-egans-field-donabate-dublin/4441772

Depressing

Cyrus

GreeBo wrote: »

What are you expecting for your 1.2 and in what sort of locations?

You can get a 5-bed semi-d with a large south facing garden in rathfarnham for 50K more.
https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/10-crannagh-road-rathfarnham-dublin-14/4429783
Now it obv needs refurb, hence asking what you are expecting to find for that money?
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is that really 'worth' 1.25m?

cant say im that familiar with rathfarnham but thats blackrock pricing, at least.

Smouse156

Cyrus wrote: »

is that really 'worth' 1.25m?

cant say im that familiar with rathfarnham but thats blackrock pricing, at least.

Looks like it will sit for 3 years and two price drops before it goes for 850k

fliball123

Cyrus wrote: »

is that really 'worth' 1.25m?

cant say im that familiar with rathfarnham but thats blackrock pricing, at least.

This is where the market is broken up into different areas. Location being one, you take that house and slap it in Foxrock or on the cliff in Howth and its easily worth this. Slap in Leitrim and take a zero of the 1.25m. I think this is way over priced and I cannot see it selling

wassie

TheSheriff wrote: »

Popped into my notification as listed as a "Detached house"........

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/tir-na-nog-egans-field-donabate-dublin/4441772

Ad states 'Cash buyers only'....

...My spidey-sense is tingling.

Cyrus

fliball123 wrote: »

This is where the market is broken up into different areas. Location being one, you take that house and slap it in Foxrock or on the cliff in Howth and its easily worth this. Slap in Leitrim and take a zero of the 1.25m. I think this is way over priced and I cannot see it selling

Yeah I get that , but I didn’t think a tired semi d in rathfarnham would make that , even in Blackrock for example that looks overpriced and I’d assume Blackrock is more desirable . Maybe I’m wrong on that front .

MacronvFrugals

wassie wrote: »

Ad states 'Cash buyers only'....

...My spidey-sense is tingling.

Excuse the naivety but why would anyone want cash buyers unless to avoid tax?

Deub

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Excuse the naivety but why would anyone want cash buyers unless to avoid tax?

Because there may be some issues and the banks wouldn’t lend you the money to buy it.

MacronvFrugals

Deub wrote: »

Because there may be some issues and the banks wouldn’t lend you the money to buy it.

Makes sense a decent shower of rain would knock that down lol

Mic 1972

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Excuse the naivety but why would anyone want cash buyers unless to avoid tax?

how do you avoid tax as a cash buyer? Cash buyers have cash in the bank, the money is all tracked

PokeHerKing

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Depressing

Far from depressing. That's ****ing hilarious! If you pay that for a caravan good luck to you. No way any bank will finance that so as a taxpayer I'm happy to grab the popcorn.

Mic 1972

Iceman29 wrote: »

I find it strange that so many of the people with stories of how busy and competitive things are have such low "post" counts. noticed this the other day...... they wouldn't be EA's or sellers by any chance?

I honestly don't see the correlation here, people have things to do, they don't always have a lot of time to be on a board. At least i can speak for myself

awec

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Excuse the naivety but why would anyone want cash buyers unless to avoid tax?

Cause it’s basically a caravan and banks don’t give mortgages on those

Bass Reeves

awec wrote: »

Cause it’s basically a caravan and banks don’t give mortgages on those

I suspect as well maybe they have no planning for permanent living. There is a 250 euro/year maintenance fee. Site is 0.17( one sixth of an acre) of an acre so site would seem to 680 sq meters. I cannot find an eircode for it. You will have no trouble with the neighbours on one side. However it is fairly near the train track on the other side.

Smouse156

Cyrus wrote: »

Yeah I get that , but I didn’t think a tired semi d in rathfarnham would make that , even in Blackrock for example that looks overpriced and I’d assume Blackrock is more desirable . Maybe I’m wrong on that front .

I lived in both and Blackrock is way more desirable. It would struggle to get that in Blackrock given the work required and the fact that’s it’s a semi! I think I was overly generous with my 850k prediction, more like 750k max. They clearly aren’t serious about selling it

stinger31

Defo a great time to buy.......hahaha and while you're at it.....bid way over the asking too..... and if you're job is even in the slightest of risk.....buy buy buy

"Coronavirus plunges Europe’s leading economies into historic recessions"