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National: Cold spell Charts/ Media/ Forecasts (Strictly no chit-chat) (15/12/2010)

nacho libre · 2010-12-14 16:11:12

Please keep chic-chat to the other thread. look at that beauty! bone chilling upper atmosphere wind straight from the arctic freezer! we are talking polar low territory and active troughs crossing down over us! feel free to edit this mods as you see fit.

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#102 15-12-2010 3:00pm

irish1967

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woolymammoth wrote: »

where were those posted?

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=58711877
http://www.facebook.com/thebigsnow?ref=ts#!/thebigsnow?v=photos

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#103 15-12-2010 3:13pm

woolymammoth

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irish1967 wrote: »

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=58711877
http://www.facebook.com/thebigsnow?ref=ts#!/thebigsnow?v=photos

cheers irish, i was in the antipoles for all that fun & craic last year xmas just ain't the same without frosty weather & some snow!

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#104 15-12-2010 3:18pm

eoinbergin

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Let me know if i have this right for dublin from noon thursday the temp will start to drop and continue to drop wind strong gusty winds on. The wind should calm alittle on saturday and sunday with expected 1-2cm of snow falling both days...if anyone thinks any different let me know it would be good to get a regional idea so that the city wont come to a stand still again

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#105 15-12-2010 3:49pm

premiercad

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If this occluded front crosses like shown below, serious falls of snow this weekend! :eek:

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#106 15-12-2010 3:57pm

maquiladora

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premiercad wrote: »

If this occluded front crosses like shown below, serious falls of snow this weekend! :eek:

UKMO precip chart for that time :

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#107 15-12-2010 4:01pm

danni2

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Wow the bbc shows a spell of snow moving across the country on Friday night, http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

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#108 15-12-2010 4:01pm

maquiladora

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Weather Warning

Issued at 15 December 2010 - 14:00

Severe Weather Warning

A return to very cold and wintry weather across the country from Thursday into next week, with wintry showers. Snow returning, mainly affecting Ulster, west Connacht and southwest Munster during Thursday afternoon into Friday. 3 to 10 cm snow here (more over higher ground). Snow showers becoming more widespread across the country later Friday into Friday night, with further accumulations. Scattered wintry showers to follow over the weekend, with yet more snow in places.

Afternoon temperatures just -2 to -3 degrees.
Night time temperatures -5 to -10 degrees.

Widespread frost, ice and freezing fog too.

Extremely cold and wintry into next week too.

Further updates to follow.

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/warnings.asp

:cool:

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#109 15-12-2010 4:16pm

maquiladora

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First 12Z run of the day.

This would be with -8 to -10 uppers over the country :

and then later the UK gets it

:pac:

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#110 15-12-2010 4:19pm

TheInquisitor

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maquiladora wrote: »

First 12Z run of the day.

This would be with -8 to -10 uppers over the country :

and then later the UK gets it

:pac:

Im not so sure about those charts. Its weird the low strengthening to 965 like that when its pretty much over land?? I can't see that kind of strenghtening taking place.

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#111 15-12-2010 4:23pm

maquiladora

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TheInquisitor wrote: »

Im not so sure about those charts. Its weird the low strengthening to 965 like that when its pretty much over land?? I can't see that kind of strenghtening taking place.

Yeah GME isn't really the best of the models, but I'm just putting it out there while we wait for ther GFS/UKMO.

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#112 15-12-2010 4:25pm

mickger844posts

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maquiladora wrote: »

First 12Z run of the day.

This would be with -8 to -10 uppers over the country :

and then later the UK gets it

:pac:

Unreal set of charts there Maq, will be very interesting to see what the GFS take on it is. Coming out soon now

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#113 15-12-2010 4:32pm

maquiladora

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mickger844posts wrote: »

Unreal set of charts there Maq, will be very interesting to see what the GFS take on it is. Coming out soon now

GME is probably overdoing it, I wouldn't expect to see that storm on the GFS. But it just goes to show the kind of stuff that is coming up on the models for just 3 days away, not FI.

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#114 15-12-2010 4:35pm

ninebeanrows

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GME looks like a PL to me, wonder is this actually a real polar low.

If we can get a similar positioning off the GFS we are laughing. Maybe bump it a wee bit further north!

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#115 15-12-2010 4:35pm

mickger844posts

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maquiladora wrote: »

GME is probably overdoing it, I wouldn't expect to see that storm on the GFS. But it just goes to show the kind of stuff that is coming up on the models for just 3 days away, not FI.

GFS rolling out now Maq.:)

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#116 15-12-2010 4:42pm

kopfan77

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Hi all, new to this thread and have to say Im loving it....what do the experts think our chances are of getting some snow here in Limerick this time round considering how we were starved of it completely over the past few weeks???

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#117 15-12-2010 4:44pm

maquiladora

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Slightly heavier precip for us at 24 hours on the 12Z GFS.

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#118 15-12-2010 4:49pm

eoinbergin

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I'm right in thinking cork limerick munster area is going to get about 2cm's and Leinster just 1cm so the snow should be quiet light but constant

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#119 15-12-2010 4:49pm

cherryghost

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Interesting, DP to drop faster than expected? More of the country could be in for some sleet/snow than previously expected (bar the south)

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#120 15-12-2010 4:54pm

Jimdwyer

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Daroxtar wrote: »

Has anyone linked the cold spell and snow we're getting with the volcanic eruption earlier in the year? If not then I'm callin it first

I was thinking that also.. Remaining ash particles in the atmosphere reducing temperatures.. Didn't that Indonesian volcano have a big effect on global temperatures?

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#121 15-12-2010 4:55pm

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kopfan77 wrote: »

Hi all, new to this thread and have to say Im loving it....what do the experts think our chances are of getting some snow here in Limerick this time round considering how we were starved of it completely over the past few weeks???

fairly high from time to time.
There is a connaught ulster sticky thread though

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#122 15-12-2010 5:00pm

smashey

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Deleted User wrote: »

fairly high from time to time.
There is a connaught ulster sticky thread though

And a Munster thread

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#123 15-12-2010 5:01pm

ninebeanrows

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Slight movement west of the low, heavy snow over Ireland Friday evening clearing east into England overnight, turning heavy as it does so.

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#124 15-12-2010 5:05pm

ninebeanrows

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Snowstorm over central England Saturday morning with trailing heavy snow showers into Irish east coast.

Totals reaching 10cm in the eastern Ireland by this stage.

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#125 15-12-2010 5:05pm

maquiladora

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Upgraded precip at 60 hours too.

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#126 15-12-2010 5:05pm

TheMilkyPirate

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Friday night saturday morning looking good on the GFS, If that low shifts further east we would be pasted :pac:

EDIT: Would i be right in saying the models precipitation charts wouldn't pick up on the effects of streamers?

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#127 15-12-2010 5:07pm

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smashey wrote: »

And a Munster thread

yeah weathercheck has a link to that in his sig..

Yeah gfs has the south low closer to Ireland.
It's wierdsly shaped though,almost slackening the winds so if it has bands of precip..where will they be is the question!

http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-0-66.png?12

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#128 15-12-2010 5:07pm

leahyl

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Am i right in saying that at this stage these models look good for everyone getting some snow?!

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#129 15-12-2010 5:07pm

ninebeanrows

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Totals increasing in Irish as irish sea feeders pick up during Saturday night into Sunday.

Disruption in Dublin region likely with upto 15cm on the ground.

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#130 15-12-2010 5:11pm

forkassed

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Weathercheck wrote: »

Totals increasing in Irish as irish sea feeders pick up during Saturday night into Sunday.

Disruption in Dublin region likely with upto 15cm on the ground.

Yeah Sat Night looks better for the east on this run. We need the North Easterly at some stage if we are to get a decent dump out of this.

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#131 15-12-2010 5:11pm

TheMilkyPirate

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leahyl wrote: »

Am i right in saying that at this stage these models look good for everyone getting some snow?!

The potential for everyone to see snow is there yes. Question is, How much?

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#132 15-12-2010 5:13pm

leahyl

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baraca wrote: »

The potential for everyone to see snow is there yes. Question is, How much?

Well to be honest at this stage once i get at least a covering and not just a flurry i'll be happy! Great stuff from this forum - you guys know yer stuff:)

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#133 15-12-2010 5:13pm

ninebeanrows

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I leave you with snowbound Dublin

UKM and the following chart throws feeders back towards us.

I love upgrades in the 72hr range:D

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#134 15-12-2010 5:14pm

kstand

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My Mrs and son are due to fly from Heathrow to Dublin on Sunday at 2pm. What chances that this flight will be cancelled due to the weather in your opinion based on these models?

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#135 15-12-2010 5:17pm

maquiladora

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UKMO has the low further east at 72 hours :

Fairly heavy precip crossing the country Friday night to early Saturday :

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#136 15-12-2010 5:17pm

premiercad

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Interesting, DP to drop faster than expected? More of the country could be in for some sleet/snow than previously expected (bar the south)

have been watching that too this v cold air behind the front must be taking effect despite the long sea track of these fronts, if the estimates keep dropping the DP def sleet in midlands more than rain and snow above 500 ft

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#137 15-12-2010 5:18pm

maquiladora

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Weathercheck wrote: »

I leave you with snowbound Dublin

This is the national thread WC. Only Dublin snowbound?

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#138 15-12-2010 5:19pm

typhooner

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leahyl wrote: »

Am i right in saying that at this stage these models look good for everyone getting some snow?!

maybe not everyone, if you live on the Aran Islands right on the coast

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#139 15-12-2010 5:20pm

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kstand wrote: »

My Mrs and son are due to fly from Heathrow to Dublin on Sunday at 2pm. What chances that this flight will be cancelled due to the weather in your opinion based on these models?

Nill.Maybe postponed while both spend a few hrs clearing runways..
Can you not use the other threads?
This is model only

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#140 15-12-2010 5:23pm

kstand

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Deleted User wrote: »

Nill.Maybe postponed while both spend a few hrs clearing runways..
Can you not use the other threads?
This is model only

Apologies - thanks for the response.
Not sure I'd have got any sort of sensible answer on any of the other threads.

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#141 15-12-2010 5:26pm

maquiladora

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Heavy precip pushing up from the south at 150 hours on the 12Z GFS, but with that milder air approaching the snow would turn to rain before long there.

Long way off though, FI is a lot closer than 150 hours now.

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#142 15-12-2010 5:27pm

leahyl

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maquiladora wrote: »

Heavy precip pushing up from the south at 150 hours on the 12Z GFS, but with that milder air approaching the snow would turn to rain before long there.

Long way off though, FI is a lot closer than 150 hours now.

What is FI that people keep referring to?

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#143 15-12-2010 5:29pm

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fantasy_Island

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#144 15-12-2010 5:29pm

maquiladora

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leahyl wrote: »

What is FI that people keep referring to?

Fantasy Island, future charts that are in such an unreliable timeframe that they were not worth paying too much attention to.

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#145 15-12-2010 5:31pm

Iancar29

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leahyl wrote: »

What is FI that people keep referring to?

FI = Fantasy Island... timeframe which models are most unreliable .. hence the name

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#146 15-12-2010 5:31pm

leahyl

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maquiladora wrote: »

Fantasy Island, future charts that are in such an unreliable timeframe that they were not worth paying too much attention to.

Oh right! DOH! Thanks - that's the description you would use alright!

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#147 15-12-2010 5:31pm

roryc1

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maquiladora wrote: »

Heavy precip pushing up from the south at 150 hours on the 12Z GFS, but with that milder air approaching the snow would turn to rain before long there.

Long way off though, FI is a lot closer than 150 hours now.

Yeah just looking at that, It looks a bit off to me, I can't see the cold been pushed away the quick

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#148 15-12-2010 5:36pm

typhooner

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whers's OwenC these days, he was always good for a laugh especially when a Cold front was about to hit the north coast

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#149 15-12-2010 5:37pm

maquiladora

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roryc1 wrote: »

Yeah just looking at that, It looks a bit off to me, I can't see the cold been pushed away the quick

Yeah. It will probably flip back to cold on the 18Z. No need to panic.

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#150 15-12-2010 5:37pm

typhooner

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this is unknown territory for the forecasters and models, PV hasnt's dropped in for a visit like this in a long long time. FI is +96 onwards

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#151 15-12-2010 5:38pm

luv2craic

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Met.ie - Thursday will see a band of rain and drizzle extending quickly southwards, turning to sleet and snow on high ground. However, this will clear all areas by late afternoon, leaving wintry showers to affect northern and western coastal counties, many falling as snow. Highest temperatures 6 to 9 degrees, but turning bitterly cold by evening. Winds will be moderate to fresh, northerly.

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