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National: Cold spell Charts/ Media/ Forecasts (Strictly no chit-chat) (15/12/2010)

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  • Registered Users Posts: 21,676 ✭✭✭✭smashey


    fairly high from time to time.
    There is a connaught ulster sticky thread though
    And a Munster thread :p


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Slight movement west of the low, heavy snow over Ireland Friday evening clearing east into England overnight, turning heavy as it does so.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Snowstorm over central England Saturday morning with trailing heavy snow showers into Irish east coast.

    Totals reaching 10cm in the eastern Ireland by this stage.

    gfs-0-72.png?12


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Upgraded precip at 60 hours too.

    gfs-2-60.png?12


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,963 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    Friday night saturday morning looking good on the GFS, If that low shifts further east we would be pasted :pac:


    EDIT: Would i be right in saying the models precipitation charts wouldn't pick up on the effects of streamers?


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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    smashey wrote: »
    And a Munster thread :p
    yeah weathercheck has a link to that in his sig..

    Yeah gfs has the south low closer to Ireland.
    It's wierdsly shaped though,almost slackening the winds so if it has bands of precip..where will they be is the question!

    http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-0-66.png?12


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,245 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    Am i right in saying that at this stage these models look good for everyone getting some snow?!


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Totals increasing in Irish as irish sea feeders pick up during Saturday night into Sunday.

    Disruption in Dublin region likely with upto 15cm on the ground.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 311 ✭✭forkassed


    Totals increasing in Irish as irish sea feeders pick up during Saturday night into Sunday.

    Disruption in Dublin region likely with upto 15cm on the ground.

    Yeah Sat Night looks better for the east on this run. We need the North Easterly at some stage if we are to get a decent dump out of this.

    Rtavn902.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,963 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    leahyl wrote: »
    Am i right in saying that at this stage these models look good for everyone getting some snow?!

    The potential for everyone to see snow is there yes. Question is, How much?

    :)


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,245 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    baraca wrote: »
    The potential for everyone to see snow is there yes. Question is, How much?

    :)

    Well to be honest at this stage once i get at least a covering and not just a flurry i'll be happy! Great stuff from this forum - you guys know yer stuff:)


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    I leave you with snowbound Dublin

    UKM and the following chart throws feeders back towards us.

    I love upgrades in the 72hr range:D

    UW72-21.GIF?15-17


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,248 ✭✭✭kstand


    My Mrs and son are due to fly from Heathrow to Dublin on Sunday at 2pm. What chances that this flight will be cancelled due to the weather in your opinion based on these models?


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    UKMO has the low further east at 72 hours :

    UW72-21.GIF?15-17

    Fairly heavy precip crossing the country Friday night to early Saturday :

    UW60-594.GIF?15-17

    UW72-7.GIF?15-17


  • Registered Users Posts: 352 ✭✭premiercad


    Interesting, DP to drop faster than expected? More of the country could be in for some sleet/snow than previously expected (bar the south)

    have been watching that too this v cold air behind the front must be taking effect despite the long sea track of these fronts, if the estimates keep dropping the DP def sleet in midlands more than rain and snow above 500 ft


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    I leave you with snowbound Dublin

    This is the national thread WC. Only Dublin snowbound? :p


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 107 ✭✭typhooner


    leahyl wrote: »
    Am i right in saying that at this stage these models look good for everyone getting some snow?!


    maybe not everyone, if you live on the Aran Islands right on the coast :D


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    kstand wrote: »
    My Mrs and son are due to fly from Heathrow to Dublin on Sunday at 2pm. What chances that this flight will be cancelled due to the weather in your opinion based on these models?
    Nill.Maybe postponed while both spend a few hrs clearing runways..
    Can you not use the other threads?
    This is model only


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,248 ✭✭✭kstand


    Nill.Maybe postponed while both spend a few hrs clearing runways..
    Can you not use the other threads?
    This is model only

    Apologies - thanks for the response.
    Not sure I'd have got any sort of sensible answer on any of the other threads.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Heavy precip pushing up from the south at 150 hours on the 12Z GFS, but with that milder air approaching the snow would turn to rain before long there.

    Long way off though, FI is a lot closer than 150 hours now.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,245 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    Heavy precip pushing up from the south at 150 hours on the 12Z GFS, but with that milder air approaching the snow would turn to rain before long there.

    Long way off though, FI is a lot closer than 150 hours now.

    What is FI that people keep referring to?


  • Posts: 16,720 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]




  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    leahyl wrote: »
    What is FI that people keep referring to?

    Fantasy Island, future charts that are in such an unreliable timeframe that they were not worth paying too much attention to.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    leahyl wrote: »
    What is FI that people keep referring to?


    FI = Fantasy Island... timeframe which models are most unreliable .. hence the name :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,245 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    Fantasy Island, future charts that are in such an unreliable timeframe that they were not worth paying too much attention to.

    Oh right! DOH! Thanks - that's the description you would use alright!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 292 ✭✭roryc1


    Heavy precip pushing up from the south at 150 hours on the 12Z GFS, but with that milder air approaching the snow would turn to rain before long there.

    Long way off though, FI is a lot closer than 150 hours now.

    Yeah just looking at that, It looks a bit off to me, I can't see the cold been pushed away the quick :o


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 107 ✭✭typhooner


    whers's OwenC these days, he was always good for a laugh especially when a Cold front was about to hit the north coast


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    roryc1 wrote: »
    Yeah just looking at that, It looks a bit off to me, I can't see the cold been pushed away the quick :o

    Yeah. It will probably flip back to cold on the 18Z. No need to panic.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 107 ✭✭typhooner


    this is unknown territory for the forecasters and models, PV hasnt's dropped in for a visit like this in a long long time. FI is +96 onwards


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5 luv2craic


    Met.ie - Thursday will see a band of rain and drizzle extending quickly southwards, turning to sleet and snow on high ground. However, this will clear all areas by late afternoon, leaving wintry showers to affect northern and western coastal counties, many falling as snow. Highest temperatures 6 to 9 degrees, but turning bitterly cold by evening. Winds will be moderate to fresh, northerly.


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